Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[MJO812]

Parks are really crowded today along with heavy traffic in NY. I guess people are getting annoyed about staying inside. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Numbers declining quite rapidly in NYS. Would be surprised if Cuomo extends pass May 15th.

[MJO812]

NJ is likely undercounting deaths

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/05/nj-is-likely-undercounting-coronavirus-deaths-heres-what-the-data-shows.html%3FoutputType=amp

[wolfie09]

I thought this was an interesting article, especially considering I just started drinking kefir Milk which is amazing by the way..I have gerd and have been having dijestive issues for weeks due to my anxiety...

 

No one knows exactly why some patients are affected more than others, but a new study from China (that has not yet been peer-reviewed) makes a provocative assertion: the health of the gut microbiome may predict the severity of the disease. The healthier the gut, the better the outcome. That may be something to cheer about, because you can improve your microbiome in a matter of days just by changing your diet. It could save your life.

 

Scientists have started to realize that many of the chronic diseases of modern life are significantly associated with systemic inflammation and gut dysbiosis—a loose term that implies an unbalanced, unhealthy gut microbiome. Many of these inflammatory diseases, including diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension, are also associated with COVID-19 complications.

 

There is a psychological angle to this as well, due to the two-way nature of the gut-brain axis. The state of your microbiome can affect your disposition: the microbes that contribute to a good mood are called psychobiotics. But nature is nothing if not convoluted, and your mood can also affect your microbiome. The implication is that anxiety and depression may add to the complications of a COVID-19 infection

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Numbers declining quite rapidly in NYS. Would be surprised if Cuomo extends pass May 15th.

He still sounded worried today

[Syrmax]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Numbers declining quite rapidly in NYS. Would be surprised if Cuomo extends pass May 15th.

NYC may stay in lockdown until 2022 or 2023. They'll never get a low enough caseload to convince themselves to come out.  And that's fine, they can do what they want, or need to. 

 Upstate we have a chance to loosen up in June but the first time trends even think about changing, Cuomo and local Committee's will reinstitute stricter controls. By Oct/Nov I'd expect we will plunge back into lockdown, so at best we have a 3-4 month reprieve.

Without so called "herd immunity" the only real hope is that the virus mutates in our favor. Vaccines seem impossible in the next year or more and treatments incremental over time.   

[brentrich]

I just heard that NYS got extended again into June, is that true? 

[MJO812]

Just now, brentrich said:

I just heard that NYS got extended again into June, is that true? 

He hasn't said anything yet

[brentrich]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He hasn't said anything yet

Hmm, do you think we will get extended again? 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Hmm, do you think we will get extended again? 

NYC yes but probably not upstate NY

[brentrich]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC yes but probably not upstate NY

Upstate NY should, i mean Look at Erie County (3500+ cases and going up), Monroe County (1500+ cases and going up). There's no signs of declining for those cities. NY governor would be crazy not to extend it. 

[Syrmax]

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I thought this was an interesting article, especially considering I just started drinking kefir Milk which is amazing by the way..I have gerd and have been having dijestive issues for weeks due to my anxiety...

 

No one knows exactly why some patients are affected more than others, but a new study from China (that has not yet been peer-reviewed) makes a provocative assertion: the health of the gut microbiome may predict the severity of the disease. The healthier the gut, the better the outcome. That may be something to cheer about, because you can improve your microbiome in a matter of days just by changing your diet. It could save your life.

 

Scientists have started to realize that many of the chronic diseases of modern life are significantly associated with systemic inflammation and gut dysbiosis—a loose term that implies an unbalanced, unhealthy gut microbiome. Many of these inflammatory diseases, including diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension, are also associated with COVID-19 complications.

 

There is a psychological angle to this as well, due to the two-way nature of the gut-brain axis. The state of your microbiome can affect your disposition: the microbes that contribute to a good mood are called psychobiotics. But nature is nothing if not convoluted, and your mood can also affect your microbiome. The implication is that anxiety and depression may add to the complications of a COVID-19 infection

I've stumbled across interesting articles on health, weight control, etc with a focus on having the "right" gastrointestinal microbes and such.  Not sure how real any of it is and a lot of nutritional stuff seems to border on junk science but some of it makes sense.  If nothing else, if the Placebo effect works, roll with it.

[Syrmax]

12 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Upstate NY should, i mean Look at Erie County (3500+ cases and going up), Monroe County (1500+ cases and going up). There's no signs of declining for those cities. NY governor would be crazy not to extend it. 

I dont know how granular they will, or can, get. Many counties have very low infection totals and it seems way overboard to be walking around in masks and all the other limitations on businesses.  Problem is, if it gets relaxed in low infection upstate counties, its impossible to limit travel out of higher infection counties. So you rancid, infected mongrels in Rochester and Buffalo would have to stay home for it to fully work!

[OSUmetstud]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NJ is likely undercounting deaths

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/05/nj-is-likely-undercounting-coronavirus-deaths-heres-what-the-data-shows.html%3FoutputType=amp

This is probably true everywhere. Limited testing early on in the pandemic. 

[Syrmax]

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is probably true everywhere. Limited testing early on in the pandemic. 

We still have limited testing, whether it's due to a continuing lack of test kits or other procedural reasons, not sure.  I'm not sure if there's an under or over count going on. There's been no shortage of claims both ways. Until proven otherwise, likely after the fact, I look at this issue as similar to bad refereeing...it washes out in the end...usually.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Syrmax said:

We still have limited testing, whether it's due to a continuing lack of test kits or other procedural reasons, not sure.  I'm not sure if there's an under or over count going on. There's been no shortage of claims both ways. Until proven otherwise, likely after the fact, I look at this issue as similar to bad refereeing...it washes out in the end...usually.

The excessive death stats widely reported are pretty hard to ignore imo. Theres also a few preprints out there discussing it. Estimates of 52k in Italy, for example. 

[OSUmetstud]

the testing way more limited in early to mid march on the ramp up compared to what is now. So you'd be more likely to miss something then than now. It also would explain the lack of symmetry in the fatality graphs in many places. Better counts on backside then on the front. 

[Syrmax]

30 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

the testing way more limited in early to mid march on the ramp up compared to what is now. So you'd be more likely to miss something then than now. It also would explain the lack of symmetry in the fatality graphs in many places. Better counts on backside then on the front. 

Agree on that. In the end, I suspect that "excess mortality" might be a reasonable way to figure out a real number of covid-19 deaths. Not exact as seasonal flu lethality varies but we know statistically how many people die over the course of a year so any deltas ought to stand out.

[Syrmax]

This is part of why we are in trouble as a  nation.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing

So this is now evolving as the latest anti-Trump political ploy to oppose the release of covid-19 antibody testing.  First, in Jan the MSM and Dems line was,  "this is all overblown". Then, when Trump shifted gears to denial and trivialize space, they swapped 180 to oppose that. This fit hand in glove with  "not enough testing," ... bad Trump. And correct.  Now we're getting more testing and its but but but, it's not good testing. GMAFB.

When the Democrats (correctly) pointed out that the Admin was fumbling the testing rollout during Jan-Mar timeframe, and fingered the FDA as being an obstacle in the process, it made the Trump admin look bad. Ok, fair enough.

Now, when they begin rolling out a lot of antibody tests, and have improved covid-19 test availability (somewhat), its: oh no no no, those tests didnt get rigorous enough scrutiny by FDA. 

And lest one feebly state "oh so you're ok with bad tests," read this:

"But in the rush to get tests to the public quickly, there are worries that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has allowed companies to market tests with little to no oversight, raising the potential for a surge in inaccurate results."

There are worries. Really? By whom?

C'mon, this is horsesh!t and clearly an attempt to keep the nation paralyzed for as long as possible to drive dissatisfaction and maximize economic destruction...which plays against Trump ostensibly in the election.

These people better be very careful as people's patience with both sides is drawing thin. Unhinge enough people and frankly it'll be great entertainment watching these people all get what they've probably got coming. 

[OSUmetstud]

Kinda damned if you do damned if you dont. Need fast but what good are shitty tests? 

I dont know if a anybody saw but this was the latest NYS antibody study results from today.

The test is reported to have 93 to 100 percent specificity. 

 

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kinda damned if you damned if you dont. Need fast but what good are shitty tests? 

I dont know if a anybody saw but this was the latest NYS antibody study results from today.

The test is reported to have 93 to 100 percent specificity. 

 

Problem is we don't kknow if they're actually shitty tests or just Dems seizing on concerns about the rapidity by which FDA approved them.

It will be figured out if they are shitty tests in due course but sitting around navel gazing and jerking off in peer reviews doesn't seem like the best approach while Rome burns.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Syrmax said:

Problem is we don't kknow if they're actually shitty tests or just Dems seizing on concerns about the rapidity by which FDA approved them.

It will be figured out if they are shitty tests in due course but sitting around navel gazing and jerking off in peer reviews doesn't seem like the best approach while Rome burns.

They're are plenty of shitty tests. Thats real. There specifically been lots of bad antibody tests coming out over the past month. Covid project had reviews of them. Only 1 or 2 of like over a dozen were solid. Private companies and the feds need to get together with a real plan for going forward. 

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

They're are plenty of shitty tests. Thats real. There specifically been lots of bad antibody tests coming out over the past month. Covid project had reviews of them. Only 1 or 2 of like over a dozen were solid. Private companies and the feds need to get together with a real plan for going forward. 

Fair enough. I havent seen a lot on antibody testing on the Covid Tracking Project but I could've missed something. There's way too much information flow out there the last 3 months, overall.

[MJO812]

[BuffaloWeather]

Social distancing is pretty much done here. Chestnut ridge had about half of erie countys population at it earlier today. Luckily I have a secret trail no one knows about where I can walk freely with my dog and no one else.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Social distancing is pretty much done here. Chestnut ridge had about half of erie countys population at it earlier today. Luckily I have a secret trail no one knows about where I can walk freely with my dog and no one else.

It is also done here. Tomorrow might hit 80 here so good luck.

[lakeeffectkid383]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Social distancing is pretty much done here. Chestnut ridge had about half of erie countys population at it earlier today. Luckily I have a secret trail no one knows about where I can walk freely with my dog and no one else.

The last few days I’ve seen a huge lax by people for sure. Way more cars on the road, people out and about, even went to get Chick Fil A for the first fast food I’ve eaten in over a month and the line was about 1/2 mile long. Driving by some stores you could barely see an open parking spot which is weird because I thought stores that were open had to have a capacity reduction where only like 15-20% of capacity could be let in at one time. They can extend the pause order all they’d like but if people don’t want to stay home they’re not going to, especially when things aren’t being enforced. 

[TugHillMatt]

Passed many people walking during our walk today. Most were in good spirits and friendly. It was very refreshing.

70 tomorrow and then it's back to March weather.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Social distancing is pretty much done here. Chestnut ridge had about half of erie countys population at it earlier today. Luckily I have a secret trail no one knows about where I can walk freely with my dog and no one else.

Ever go to Hunters creek?

Ive noticed people not wearing masks in grocery stores as well. 

[cny rider]

10 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Fair enough. I havent seen a lot on antibody testing on the Covid Tracking Project but I could've missed something. There's way too much information flow out there the last 3 months, overall.

 

You didn't have enough information (fair enough).....yet you jumped all over a supposed Democrat conspiracy regarding the testing and spewed it out to a message board.

Can you see the problem we have as a society when people take that approach?