Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

This an extreme position. It's only advocated by the far right. The whole idea of herd immunity as a solution and exposing people to the virus is insane, and not inline with normal health policy whatsoever. I can't believe being supportive of CDC guidelines and the trends like NYS is doing is somehow an indefensible position. Im getting questioned more than you. 

Herd immunity has worked for tens of thousands of years...its our god complex that we have that makes us believe we can beat this with medicine. And I wouldn't consider Sweden far right (or myself for that matter. hell i don't even own a gun)...I'm all for advances in healthcare but were not technologically advanced enough yet to cure diseases. Only one disease is currently classified as eradicated, smallpox.

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Agree but we don't have the capability or competency to do much contact tracing or enough testing (both antibody and actual virus presence).  So we're going to be lost in a wilderness of the numbers game indefinitely.  NY won't fully reopen for years (2022-23) unless a vaccine gets deployed or a magic treatment appears.  We'll see how other less population dense areas fare as they play the game...

There would be marshal law unlike we haven't seen since the wild wild west days, I'm going to go stock up on ammo just in case. 

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Germany’s R0 went from 0.7 10 days ago to 1.0 today since beginning to reopen. Once you get above 1.0 your back to a fast rate of infection. If you do not test like crazy, trace, isolate while reopening the RO is going to jump up and cases are going to skyrocket again like they did 3 weeks to a month ago. There has to be a strategic plan and more research with antibodies and what it means as far as being able to catch the virus again even if asymptomatic and spread it before we begin widespread opening. We can’t just say the economy is suffering so let’s just send everyone back to work to get things going again and hope for the best. That’s just dangerous and wreck-less. 

I saw that with Germany....here, there is no plan, just sh*t scribbled on a napkin somewhere.  There's insufficient testing to conclude much of anything and everyone is panicked.   There will likely be a 2nd or 3rd wave (or maybe even just a brief "pause" between waves).  This will induce additional lockdowns or re-institution of them.  It will take months/years to definitively determine things like continuing asymptomatic spread and reinfection characteristics as the virus mutates, which medical science doesn't fully understand right now.   At least temporarily, we can print enough $ to give to people and businesses affected but eventually it'll all collapse, but that's another subject.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Agree but we don't have the capability or competency to do much contact tracing or enough testing (both antibody and actual virus presence).  So we're going to be lost in a wilderness of the numbers game indefinitely.  NY won't fully reopen for years (2022-23) unless a vaccine gets deployed or a magic treatment appears.  We'll see how other less population dense areas fare as they play the game...

Yea I agree with this. The cat was let out of the bag for too long and too many people are asymptomatic for contact tracing to work at this point. Its only working in S Korea because they caught it early.

[Syrmax]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

There would be marshal law unlike we haven't seen since the wild wild west days, I'm going to go stock up on ammo just in case. 

meh.  I don't think so.  The State can and will keep this imposed indefinitely, which may not be the stated plan, but is likely IMO.  There may be some relaxation in some areas but it'll all be re-imposed as soon as numbers start to look bad again.   Other states will choose different paths, we'll see how it all works out in the end.  I don't know what the correct answer is, i just believe that either way, there are big costs in terms of lives and $.

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Herd immunity has worked for tens of thousands of years...its our god complex that we have that makes us believe we can beat this with medicine. And I wouldn't consider Sweden far right (or myself for that matter. hell i don't even own a gun)...I'm all for advances in healthcare but were not technologically advanced enough yet to cure diseases. Only one disease is currently classified as eradicated, smallpox.

They used control measures in 1918. Do you not want to use the things we've learned throughout history to try to give us a fighting chance here? 

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Herd immunity has worked for tens of thousands of years...its our god complex that we have that makes us believe we can beat this with medicine. And I wouldn't consider Sweden far right (or myself for that matter. hell i don't even own a gun)...I'm all for advances in healthcare but were not technologically advanced enough yet to cure diseases. Only one disease is currently classified as eradicated, smallpox.

We did have Measles declared eradicated in the US at one point around Y2K but its made a bit of a comeback due to a variety of factors...immigration, cultures, anti-vaccination trends...The Hasidic community in NYC is apparently a prime (but not the only) example of how Measles made a comeback.

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yea I agree with this. The cat was let out of the bag for too long and too many people are asymptomatic for contact tracing to work at this point. Its only working in S Korea because they caught it early.

Agree but if you can ramp up the testing to the point that your testing the entire population then even asymptotic people would know if they have it and could isolate to prevent further spreading. Harvard University said testing in the US needs to increase to 20,000,000-30,000,000 test a day in the U.S which is 600,000,000 a month (yes double the population of entire U.S.). To me that seems undoable, as I just don’t know how we would ever be able to produce that many test even with the Defense Production Act. The Federal Government stated at their press conference that they would soon like to ramp up to 6 million test a month which is obviously well short of Harvard’s numbers but is way more than the current 6 million test to date over the last 2.5 - 3 months. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

They used control measures in 1918. Do you not want to use the things we've learned throughout history to try to give us a fighting chance here? 

I'm all for control measures, wearing masks, no large crowds etc. But shutting down entire industries is dangerous, not to us, but the entire world.The only reason this world can support 8B people is because of industry. Here in the states we'll be fine. We'll just keep printing money. (sarcasm) But globally if this continues for very long we will be entering a very dark period of history.

[OSUmetstud]

I do agree the contract tracing will be difficult. Maybe we can use some of the people unemployed for that? lol idk. I know they discussed the matter here. The provincial govt is suggesting digital contract tracing here (voluntary) through a cell phone app. They mentioned that it would really only be effective through 60 percent compliance. Contact tracing is way more feasible when the numbers are small. When they blow up its basically impossible, which is the case in NY obviously. 

[Syrmax]

Just now, WesterlyWx said:

Agree but if you can ramp up the testing to the point that your testing the entire population then even asymptotic people would know if they have it and could isolate to prevent further spreading. Harvard University said testing in the US needs to increase to 20,000,000-30,000,000 test a day in the U.S which is 600,000,000 a month (yes double the population of entire U.S.). To me that seems undoable, as I just don’t know how we would ever be able to produce that many test even with the Defense Production Act. The Federal Government stated at their press conference that they would soon like to ramp up to 6 million test a month which is obviously well short of Harvard’s numbers but is way more than the current 6 million test to date over the last 2.5 - 3 months. 

We don't have the core institutional competency to "ramp up" testing or the production capability or means of administration or analysis.  Places like Harvard or other public health organizations have these pie-in-the-sky academic recommendations and projections that aren't realistic and are full of fudge factors.  This becomes a problem when entire nations are unprepared for pandemics, haven't seriously thought about what to do, and have this type of non-workable magical thinking as input to decision makers.  Result is paralysis.   And that's where we are and will largely remain into 2021 -2022.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, Syrmax said:

We don't have the core institutional competency to "ramp up" testing or the production capability or means of administration or analysis.  Places like Harvard or other public health organizations have these pie-in-the-sky academic recommendations and projections that aren't realistic and are full of fudge factors.  This becomes a problem when entire nations are unprepared for pandemics, haven't seriously thought about what to do, and have this type of non-workable magical thinking as input to decision makers.  Result is paralysis.   And that's where we are and will largely remain into 2021 -2022.

I've heard ideal is a positive percentage of 3% or less. US is at 12% now , which is clearly better than before with about 200K tests a day, but still missing too much. 

[Syrmax]

7 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

We usually try to make it there once every year just to walk around, get something to eat, check out the sand and butter sculptures, etc.  Now that we’re both retired we can go during the week when crowds aren’t as bad.  The older I get the more I hate putting up with large crowds

Same here.  I actually went to Oktoberfest in Munich while i was in Europe last September.  That was a lot of fun.  The NY state fair probably has a wider range of attractions (agricultural, crafts, etc.), although the park rides were probably better at Oktoberfest.  And of course there's the Bierhalls and tents!  I didn't get on any rides though, as after the first couple "Maas" of bier, that wouldn't have been a good idea.  

Good thing i went last year cuz looks like international travel is all but done for years.  Maybe for good as the airline industry collapses and consolidates.  

[OSUmetstud]

 

You'd like to see more of a downtrend here. 

[Syrmax]

The USS Kidd offers a cautionary tale as to why covid-19 will likely never really go away anytime soon, or until it fully burns through the population or a vaccination is developed.  Illnesses started onboard even after last port call was 30 days prior. 

So, while flattening the curve to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, we are guaranteeing that it will take forever for covid-19 to fully run through the population.  As new cases will not get to zero anytime in the next couple of years (barring a deus ex machina), there will always be a demand pressure to not re-open, ostensibly to save lives.  No politician wants to be seen as a "murderer," which is what histrionic people are already alleging.  We see them all over social media and even in this forum.

The whole situation is almost farcical, in that we're not isolating to limit total infections, we're only isolating to delay the infection spread, "flatten the curve!"  This may save some lives although in the final analysis its not yet clear how many lives this will also cost due to delayed treatment for the usual host of all other diseases and maladies, cancer, heart, etc.).  Someday in the distant future, perhaps a post-grad doing a doctoral thesis (if there still are such things in a few years), will unravel the net cost/benefits of all this.  There's no reason to believe that you won't get covid-19 eventually.  Hopefully, one experiences mild symptoms when they get it. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

You'd like to see more of a downtrend here. 

Yep Erie county has hit new peak in hospitalizations and highest ICU count in last 2 weeks. We still haven’t fully peaked here yet I don’t think. Thus why Cuomo is not allowing elective surgeries in Erie County and we will likely be next to last as far as opening up compared to the other regions of NYS. 

[Syrmax]

Here's another indicator for why we will not reopen for probably years...Unrealistic expectations, but here's a sample of what one "thought leader" (Katherine Baicker, economist and dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago), has to say:

“The longer it takes us to get the testing in place that we need, to develop the treatments we need, to ensure we have adequate health care resources in terms of beds and personnel and equipment, the more we risk businesses not being there when it is safe to resume business activity,” Baicker said.

Most Americans said they do not feel safe about sending children back to school, allowing people to dine inside restaurants or allowing large gatherings for sporting events in this latest poll. About two-thirds said testing for the virus needs to improve before allowing people to return to work.

__________________

...Enjoy the lockdown, cuz it's not ending soon...

[brentrich]

Do you guys know when Rochester, NY (Monroe County) will hit peak since cases keep going up everyday. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The Italian island of Sicily is offering to pay for half your flights and a third of your hotel costs if you visit later this year

https://www.insider.com/sicily-offers-pay-half-flight-costs-boost-tourism-coronavirus-italy-2020-4?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sf-insider-home&fbclid=IwAR0CeLKO2Sx2_EPMVXp3CK5b2DIYTLgcIUqp9KYcCxYAEtoRRoTDpkN5GcQ

Italy sees 13% of its gross domestic product from tourism, so it is keen to welcome visitors back when we reach the tail end of the pandemic.

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't think countries realize how US travelers impact global economies. They contribute 10-15% of global GDP. That is insane.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't think countries realize how US travelers impact global economies. They contribute 10-15% of global GDP. That is insane.

I bet some of the Caribbean islands are over 50%

[Buckeyes_Suck]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The Italian island of Sicily is offering to pay for half your flights and a third of your hotel costs if you visit later this year

https://www.insider.com/sicily-offers-pay-half-flight-costs-boost-tourism-coronavirus-italy-2020-4?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sf-insider-home&fbclid=IwAR0CeLKO2Sx2_EPMVXp3CK5b2DIYTLgcIUqp9KYcCxYAEtoRRoTDpkN5GcQ

Italy sees 13% of its gross domestic product from tourism, so it is keen to welcome visitors back when we reach the tail end of the pandemic.

Damnit the site is so slow, trying to get a voucher  We had planned on going to Portugal in October but Sicily it is lol.

[Syrmax]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The Italian island of Sicily is offering to pay for half your flights and a third of your hotel costs if you visit later this year

https://www.insider.com/sicily-offers-pay-half-flight-costs-boost-tourism-coronavirus-italy-2020-4?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sf-insider-home&fbclid=IwAR0CeLKO2Sx2_EPMVXp3CK5b2DIYTLgcIUqp9KYcCxYAEtoRRoTDpkN5GcQ

Italy sees 13% of its gross domestic product from tourism, so it is keen to welcome visitors back when we reach the tail end of the pandemic.

I've been to Syracusa italy Mt Etna and Sigonella NAS in Sicily via the Navy.  Loved visiting there.  I almost requested Alitalia to just give me a voucher credit for my trip to Rome (which is where I am supposed to be right now) but...unsure if/when travel will be allowed again.  So i requested a refund of airfare.  I saw that Germany and other EU nations have been reimposing enhanced border checks and restrictions so no telling what you may run into overseas for the indefinite future.

[BuffaloWeather]

Currently at Lowe’s and busier then I’ve ever seen it. Says a max of 100 people on signs outside lol 

[TugHillMatt]

There's been much talk about school districts across New York state requesting to continue schooling through the summer. I'm not sure how New Yorkers will take this. I have seen the stress it has caused on my students and especially their parents, who are trying to manage schooling for 1 to up to as many school-aged children as they have. Many of these parents have jobs they are still working too.

My school jumped right into online schooling immediately (the day of) that school was shut down. It was a very tough first week, but I think we're doing well now. I teach ELA and assign 1 to 2 assignments a day. Any more than 2 and parents begin to stress and panic. Many homeschool parents do a great job...but many parents during this pandemic don't have the skills and patience for teaching subjects.

One of my colleagues suggested we end school earlier this year and start up earlier in August (hopefully in person) for the next school year. I thought this was an interesting idea. 

I do know one thing: This has definitely caused me to think about next year and how I will be doing some tutorials with parents to help them prepare for future school closings.

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Currently at Lowe’s and busier then I’ve ever seen it. Says a max of 100 people on signs outside lol 

Yeah, I mentioned this week that I have seen MANY people coming out of "hibernation" this week. I think many of us Upstaters are getting increasingly restless and eager to get back into things.

[Syrmax]

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's been much talk about school districts across New York state requesting to continue schooling through the summer. I'm not sure how New Yorkers will take this. I have seen the stress it has caused on my students and especially their parents, who are trying to manage schooling for 1 to up to as many school-aged children as they have. Many of these parents have jobs they are still working too.

My school jumped right into online schooling immediately (the day of) that school was shut down. It was a very tough first week, but I think we're doing well now. I teach ELA and assign 1 to 2 assignments a day. Any more than 2 and parents begin to stress and panic. Many homeschool parents do a great job...but many parents during this pandemic don't have the skills and patience for teaching subjects.

One of my colleagues suggested we end school earlier this year and start up earlier in August (hopefully in person) for the next school year. I thought this was interesting idea. 

I do know one thing: This has definitely caused me to think about next year and how I will be doing some tutorials with parents to help them prepare for future school closings.

They should probably just cancel public schools for the next year. There's no reason to continue to think that they are going to reopen schools anytime soon.  School admins and parents will never feel safe enough to go out again or allow their kids to go to school because they might pick up the virus (even though mortality for under 20s is almost nil).  Or it'll be some other excuse (what about Grandma?).  So, as an alternative why not just give diploma's to anyone that can pass a GED test?  Schools will barely be reopened once the 2nd and 3rd waves hit this fall.  This could be a model going forward.  Less staff needed, less costs.  If you can pass the test who really cares if you sit through years of bullsh!t?

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Same here.  I actually went to Oktoberfest in Munich while i was in Europe last September.  That was a lot of fun.  The NY state fair probably has a wider range of attractions (agricultural, crafts, etc.), although the park rides were probably better at Oktoberfest.  And of course there's the Bierhalls and tents!  I didn't get on any rides though, as after the first couple "Maas" of bier, that wouldn't have been a good idea.  

Good thing i went last year cuz looks like international travel is all but done for years.  Maybe for good as the airline industry collapses and consolidates.  

It figures that my wife and I have been talking about doing some traveling once we were both retired.  I’ve been retired coming up on 4 years and she just retired on Valentines Day this year.  2 days before she retired our 14 year old Bichon Frise collapsed.  She spent several days at the VMC in East Syracuse and did ok in oxygen but crashed when taken out.  We finally took her home in a makeshift oxygen tent but she wasn’t doing well so we euthanized her on 2/20.  Then our other dog, who had cancer, dies in front of us on April 14.  So we’re now dogless and free to travel but of course the corona virus hits and there goes the chance to travel.  I would just as soon forget 2020.

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

They should probably just cancel public schools for the next year. There's no reason to continue to think that they are going to reopen schools anytime soon.  School admins and parents will never feel safe enough to go out again or allow their kids to go to school because they might pick up the virus (even though mortality for under 20s is almost nil).  Or it'll be some other excuse (what about Grandma?).  So, as an alternative why not just give diploma's to anyone that can pass a GED test?  Schools will barely be reopened once the 2nd and 3rd waves hit this fall.  This could be a model going forward.  Less staff needed, less costs.  If you can pass the test who really cares if you sit through years of bullsh!t?

Interesting thoughts. I'm not sure I agree with all of them...but you're right about making all the excuses. I agree that some subjects may not be as high of a priority in the education system, but I hardly think many of the subjects that teachers are passionate about teaching are BS. Much of it depends on how the teacher teaches as well. I teach my students with a passion that they can apply what they learn to their lives and the world around them. Some of what you might be referring to is an issue with Common Core Standards.

[TugHillMatt]

Maybe I will come up with a new Curriculum called the "Common Corona Standards."