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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

wolfie09

By wolfie09,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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Just now, Luke_Mages said:

Herd immunity could be accomplished by putting america back to work and isolating those at risk with underlying conditions. You could purposely inoculate healthy young low risk volunteers to speed the process, once a case study has been completed to determine that recovering gives you immunity.

The alternative is that we stay shutdown until we have a vaccine that there is no guarantee of coming. The best years of the flu vaccine only are about 60% effective. So do we stay shutdown for the next year to save 1M people aged 70 and up? That doesn't make sense to me.

This is all bullshit. We aren't going to purposely give people the virus and we aren't going to lockdown indefinitely. Gradually open and test, trace, isolated, and monitor. It's the method that our govt and governments all over the world are following. Also, in this time, maybe we get more positive treatments that give better outcomes. 

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Buckeyes_Suck

Buckeyes_Suck

Posted
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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

That is key I think to reopening everything. There’s still not even evidence that if you have an antibody you are safe from contracting/spreading it again. 

Completely agree.

I do think that if wefind that it doesn't give you immunity that we still need to find a way to put the low risk population back to work while we attempt to create a vaccine or therapeutic remedy. 

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Buckeyes_Suck

Buckeyes_Suck

Posted
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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This is all bullshit. We aren't going to purposely give people the virus and we aren't going to lockdown indefinitely. Gradually open and test, trace, isolated, and monitor. It's the method that our govt and governments all over the world are following. Also, in this time, maybe we get more positive treatments that give better outcomes. 

You realize how many industries that will be completely crushed going this route? Airlines are going bankrupt. I'd bet that half of them stateside are gone by the time this over. Meanwhile you have entire countries on their way to bankruptcy do to the lack of tourism. Russia will be bankrupt in a matter of months because of oil prices. I don't think you fully understand how dangerous slowing the global economy down like this is. This is how wars start. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
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29 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You kill like 1-2.5 million Americans with a "herd immunity solution." Insane that anyone would sign off for that willingly. 

Where are you getting these numbers from? The modeled deaths have been WAYY off from the projections. How many people would have died despite Covid 19? I doubt its anywhere close to those numbers. As evidenced before the entire country was walking around with it unchecked for 6-8 weeks. 

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Buckeyes_Suck

Buckeyes_Suck

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where are you getting these numbers from? The modeled deaths have been WAYY off from the projections. How many people would have died despite Covid 19? I doubt its anywhere close to those numbers. As evidenced before the entire country was walking around with it unchecked for 6-8 weeks. 

Hes multiplying the .8% death rate by 330M, everyone gets it at highest death rate, and .6% death rate by 165M, half of everyone gets it at lowest death rate.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where are you getting these numbers from? The modeled deaths have been WAYY off from the projections. How many people would have died despite Covid 19? I doubt its anywhere close to those numbers. As evidenced before the entire country was walking around with it unchecked for 6-8 weeks. 

No, they aren't. There's demonstrable undercounting going on worldwide due to the lack of testing early on in the pandemic and we're at 60K confirmed already with plenty to go, and that's just the first wave with lots of restrictions in place to prevent the numbers I stated above. 

 

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe there is hope for a vaccine after all? Stock market making huge gains.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/business/gilead-coronavirus-stock-market/index.html

Remdesivir is a treatment for Covid 19,  not a vaccine.  As Kramer was saying on CNBC this morning if a treatment can be developed that greatly reduces the risk of death from this virus it will be a game changer for the economy.  People are deathly (sorry for the pun) afraid of dying and will not return to normal economic behavior until that fear is alleved.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
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Wow, why are some incapable of having a conversation without being so aggressive and combative. Relax. People on this board ARE NOT the problem. Just adds more toxicity to an already high-stressed society.

On another note, if we continue to hibernate in our homes and lock down indefinitely to save 1 to 2 million Americans...there will be deaths in other ways. Poverty,, potential war (as was already stated), depression/suicide, increased crime, and a generally more chaotic society. Humans are a social breed and our world runs on relationships, mutual deals, service, etc... 

Even around here, signs are real that people are struggling and getting restless. Traffic seems to be back to where it was before this all started, people are out all over....just many seem to be being more proactive about public spacing and wearing PPEs. In a way, I think parts of Upstate New York have already started their own "back to business" practices.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, why are some incapable of having a conversation without being so aggressive and combative. Relax. People on this board ARE NOT the problem. Just adds more toxicity to an already high-stressed society.

On another note, if we continue to hibernate in our homes and lock down indefinitely to save 1 to 2 million Americans...there will be deaths in other ways. Poverty,, potential war (as was already stated), depression/suicide, increased crime, and a generally more chaotic society. Humans are a social breed and our world runs on relationships, mutual deals, service, etc... 

Even around here, signs are real that people are struggling and getting restless. Traffic seems to be back to where it was before this all started, people are out all over....just many seem to be being more proactive about public spacing and wearing PPEs. In a way, I think parts of Upstate New York have already started their own "back to business" practices.

*Smashes head on keyboard*

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

What do you presume we do for the next year while we wait for a vaccine that may not even work? 

Ive already said what we need to do...the thing that's already being done in this country by state governments and the cdc guidelines. Gradually open, test, trace, isolate, monitor...

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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49 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

You realize how many industries that will be completely crushed going this route? Airlines are going bankrupt. I'd bet that half of them stateside are gone by the time this over. Meanwhile you have entire countries on their way to bankruptcy do to the lack of tourism. Russia will be bankrupt in a matter of months because of oil prices. I don't think you fully understand how dangerous slowing the global economy down like this is. This is how wars start. 

This an extreme position. It's only advocated by the far right. The whole idea of herd immunity as a solution and exposing people to the virus is insane, and not inline with normal health policy whatsoever. I can't believe being supportive of CDC guidelines and the trends like NYS is doing is somehow an indefensible position. Im getting questioned more than you. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This an extreme position. It's only advocated by the far right. The whole idea of herd immunity as a solution and exposing people to the virus is insane, and not inline with normal health policy whatsoever. I can't believe being supportive of CDC guidelines and the trends like NYS is doing is somehow an indefensible position. Im getting questioned more than you. 

I don't understand how you believe in opening up and not in herd immunity. They go hand in hand. If you open up this summer, herd immunity is the end of this. People will "social distance" to a degree. But if restaurants and gyms open up, it's a free for all again. Just like we had in Feb/March in the US. That explains the uptick in deaths that are showing up in a few articles. 

IE:

https://www.businessinsider.com/air-conditioning-spread-coronavirus-restaurant-can-service-industry-open-again-2020-4

 

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't understand how you believe in opening up and not in herd immunity. They go hand in hand. If you open up this summer, herd immunity is the end of this. People will "social distance" to a degree. But if restaurants and gyms open up, it's a free for all again. Just like we had in Feb/March in the US. That explains the uptick in deaths that are showing up in a few articles. 

If you do it gradually and you have enough contact tracing infrastructure I don't believe you have to get to herd immunity before a vaccine. As long as you keep the Ro under 1 we should be okay. It will be hard, though. That's why New York State is monitoring the transmission rate. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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36 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Can someone please show me a single ****ing person that has advocated for indefinite lockdowns? 

Many of those democratic politicians "claim" they care about businesses needing to open back up and the economy getting better, but I have my doubts. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them would be happy with businesses failing so they can have more control of individual finances as more people rely on the government.

 

P.S. and I have to note this any time I make a political statement because people assume "YOU STAND WITH ONE PARTY"... I do not agree either with Republicans who are like "We have the freedom to do whatever we want! 'Merica." That's just as selfish.

It's all in balance.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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People around here are enjoying life and making the best of It lol BBQ, bon fires, ATV riding, fishing, enjoying the scenery,  I see more people than ever walking, biking etc..

Litterly every place in Pulaski is still open, just reduced hours or drive thru/take out instead of dining, so be it lol

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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Posted
2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cuomo talking about a possible 2nd wave

Unless the virus mutates into something less deadly or virulent, which is possible eventually, a 2nd or 3rd wave seems likely. A deployable vaccine doesn't appear imminent before 2021 at best and treatment improvements have been incremental / experimental.   It'll be interesting to see the results from areas that are "re-opening" or relaxing controls.  I'm especially interested to see how Germany fares as they seem to have been one of the more competent states/nations in handling this overall.  If they have to re-institute a more aggressive lockdown then I don't think parts of the US will  fully re-open for years (esp NY).  

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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35 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

If you do it gradually and you have enough contact tracing infrastructure I don't believe you have to get to herd immunity before a vaccine. As long as you keep the Ro under 1 we should be okay. It will be hard, though. That's why New York State is monitoring the transmission rate. 

Agree but we don't have the capability or competency to do much contact tracing or enough testing (both antibody and actual virus presence).  So we're going to be lost in a wilderness of the numbers game indefinitely.  NY won't fully reopen for years (2022-23) unless a vaccine gets deployed or a magic treatment appears.  We'll see how other less population dense areas fare as they play the game...

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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Posted
Just now, Syrmax said:

Unless the virus mutates into something less deadly or virulent, which is possible eventually, a 2nd or 3rd wave seems likely. A deployable vaccine doesn't appear imminent before 2021 at best and treatment improvements have been incremental / experimental.   It'll be interesting to see the results from areas that are "re-opening" or relaxing controls.  I'm especially interested to see how Germany fares as they seem to have been one of the more competent states/nations in handling this overall.  If they have to re-institute a more aggressive lockdown then I don't think parts of the US will  fully re-open for years (esp NY).  

Germany’s R0 went from 0.7 10 days ago to 1.0 today since beginning to reopen. Once you get above 1.0 your back to a fast rate of infection. If you do not test like crazy, trace, isolate while reopening the RO is going to jump up and cases are going to skyrocket again like they did 3 weeks to a month ago. There has to be a strategic plan and more research with antibodies and what it means as far as being able to catch the virus again even if asymptomatic and spread it before we begin widespread opening. We can’t just say the economy is suffering so let’s just send everyone back to work to get things going again and hope for the best. That’s just dangerous and wreck-less. 

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