Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm really blown away at the stock market right now. Record unemployment/Furloughs, massive debt on corporate balance sheets, 25 trillion national debt, oil wars, and basically an entire economy that has shut down for 3-4 weeks already with no signs of reopening anytime soon. Why are the markets rising? 

Throw a few Trillion at the market and algo's buy.  I think it may be that simple.  The Fed has created $ out of thin air to cover a lot of losses...(not individuals though...we get capitalism...big players get socialism when they implode).

I do think that the markets will have a reality check though as Quarterly earning start rolling in - and esp next Quarter.  You can bake in some of it in terms of reduced expectations but some of what we are going to see is going to be staggering.  At some point we will probably challenge the recent lows, IMO.

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Up to 50% of the population is not able to be affected by Covid. It would be beneficial to have the new testing out that can tell if you were positive in the past or if you cannot be affected. This would help an enormous amount of our country to getting back to normal 

What studies is that based on?  Or were you just be imprecise?  

I agree that antibody testing needs to be rolled out.  But that's a pipe dream when we still have to ration actual virus tests...

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

And the other thing we need is medical overhead.  The only reason this disease has paralyzed us is because our medical system is just barely able to function during nominal levels of need.  It sounds outrageous, but we need large facilities that are "moth-balled" but always ready to be sprung into action in the event of a pandemic.  We a million ventilators (at a minimum) stored in a giant repository along with all the other PPE, this must be staffed and maintained perpetually.  We need the ability to quickly convert the medical system into a temporary setup that doubles its capacity. I understand that is a wildly complicated, but the alternative is the entire collapse of modern society.  Our hospital system can't be at capacity all the time, and it can't be for profit. 

Given that pandemics like this appear to be once in 100 year type events, not sure that the "mothballed" preparedness is entirely workable but some parts of it might be.  I'm going to guess that some PPE has a "shelf life" associated with it (hell my hardhat does - which seems a bit absurd).  You can't have special buildings set aside for this either...they need constant maintenance and such or turn into moldy death traps.   I think what this event has exposed is that noone was really prepared mentally or with a real plan, as to what to do.  Hence, panic, when a bunch of academics show up with what appear to be overly pessimistic models and leaders are left with little choice but to overreact, in part out of genuine concern and in part due to not wanting to be accused of "killing people"...by the usual suspects.   There have been no shortage of think tanks and studies that have been warning of our unpreparedness but none of that registered with the public or decision makers. 

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yes. Because you and I arent competing with the rich for resources. They're buying different things than we are.

You are right about that point IMO but...the real problem is the income disparity that has developed.  The 1%, or 0.1%, whomever one wishes to pick on, do spend different but the problem is that wages have not kept pace with inflation and taxation increases for the rest of us.  You could confiscate the wealth of the 1% and distribute it to "the masses" and the inflation effect would be trivial compared to what the Congress and Fed are doing now.  The Fed just created $2.6T in money supply out of thin air.  Between that, what Congress has authorized and other Fed actions, we are talking several Trillion in money supply expansion.  People can't even get their brains around the size of a trillion dollars (hint:  its a stack of $1,000 bills stacked face to face for about 150 miles - or like driving from Central Park NY to Trention NJ).  Now that is inflationary.  Which is why 25% of my trading account is in Gold and Gold Stocks.  It got hit early on due to margin calls but it's predictably taking off now.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

31 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Productivity growth is an esoteric measure if one is talking about "standard of living".  The fact that I am more productive at work doesn't mean jack squat once i leave work.   Nothing has really changed since the 1980s, if you are talking about standard of living. The only thing that's really changed is the advent of communication technologies and certain medical advances.  There are no shortage of studies showing that the "average" US citizen's wagegrowth has been stagnant for the past 20-30 years, in real terms.   From a day to day standpoint...speaking for myself...what has really changed since the 80s?  There's the internet and online streaming services, which are mostly just a different way to waste time than staring at the TV.  (To be fair, internet capability has increased "productivity" because we are now available to "work" 24/7...at the same relative pay...and we can search/shop for things online).  Certainly, cars are nicer and those of us that want them, have smartphones.  Houses aren't really nicer.   Electronics are more capable, I can program my home's thermostat or coffee maker - whoopie - but I don't really count that as standard of living.  Some of our "advances" are actually a net drag given the costs, more of an elective convenience that we survived without quite nicely in the 1990s and prior.

Strongly disagree with this. 

In the 80s your car would have been a POS that was lucky to start every morning. Remember when having 100k miles was a big deal? Corvettes had 185hp...

I didnt have a color tv in the 80s, id venture to say that the 60" HD tv you can buy now for $400 costs less and looks a little better than that black and white tv.

In every field Ive worked in, from running my own biz, to sales, to now engineering the internet has made me infinitely more productive in my job. Not because I work more but because of all the troubleshooting knowledge I have at my fingertips. I dont have to dig through manuals. I can also browse forums to see if other people have had the same issues, In general a lot of employers are pulling back on working hours as they realize people are more productive when they have better work life balance.

As far as houses go they may not be nicer but theyre way more affordable Mortgage interest rates in the 80s were 10-20%. Now theyre 3-4.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Just now, Syrmax said:

You are right about that point IMO but...the real problem is the income disparity that has developed.  The 1%, or 0.1%, whomever one wishes to pick on, do spend different but the problem is that wages have not kept pace with inflation and taxation increases for the rest of us.  You could confiscate the wealth of the 1% and distribute it to "the masses" and the inflation effect would be trivial compared to what the Congress and Fed are doing now.  The Fed just created $2.6T in money supply out of thin air.  Between that, what Congress has authorized and other Fed actions, we are talking several Trillion in money supply expansion.  Now that is inflationary.  Which is why 25% of my trading account is in Gold and Gold Stocks.  It got hit early on due to margin calls but it's predictably taking off now.

Completely agree with this and it is what I worry about most right now. I just dont see how this ends well, and theyre talking about another stimulus package...

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Luke_Mages said:

Strongly disagree with this. 

In the 80s your car would have been a POS that was lucky to start every morning. Remember when having 100k miles was a big deal? Corvettes had 185hp...

I didnt have a color tv in the 80s, id venture to say that the 60" HD tv you can buy now for $400 costs less and looks a little better than that black and white tv.

In every field Ive worked in, from running my own biz from 18-22, to sales, to now engineering has made me infinitely more productive in my job. Not because I work more but because of all the troubleshooting knowledge I have at my fingertips. I dont have to dig through manuals. I can also browse forums to see if other people have had the same issues, In general a lot of employers are pulling back on working hours as they realize people are more productive when they have better work life balance.

As far as houses go they may not be nicer but theyre way more affordable Mortgage interest rates in the 80s were 10-20%. Now theyre 3-4.

I wouldn't trade my childhood for the ones the kids have now. I went outside and played tag, hide and seek, built forts, board games, biked, skateboard, football, hockey, etc... My childhood was extremely special to me. Now kids just play fortnite all day. Sometimes less is more. As an avid hiker, I'd prefer to travel the world and hike mountains for free then have a Lambo. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I wouldn't trade my childhood for the ones the kids have now. I went outside and played tag, hide and seek, built forts, board games, biked, skateboard, football, hockey, etc... My childhood was extremely special to me. Now kids just play fortnite all day. Sometimes less is more. As an avid hiker, I'd prefer to travel the world and hike mountains for free then have a Lambo. 

Can i just travel the world and climb mountains in a lambo suv?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Strongly disagree with this. 

In the 80s your car would have been a POS that was lucky to start every morning. Remember when having 100k miles was a big deal? Corvettes had 185hp...

I didnt have a color tv in the 80s, id venture to say that the 60" HD tv you can buy now for $400 costs less and looks a little better than that black and white tv.

In every field Ive worked in, from running my own biz from 18-22, to sales, to now engineering has made me infinitely more productive in my job. Not because I work more but because of all the troubleshooting knowledge I have at my fingertips. I dont have to dig through manuals. I can also browse forums to see if other people have had the same issues, In general a lot of employers are pulling back on working hours as they realize people are more productive when they have better work life balance.

As far as houses go they may not be nicer but theyre way more affordable Mortgage interest rates in the 80s were 10-20%. Now theyre 3-4.

There is a direct correlation. CD rates are less then 1% right now. You could save so much money in the 80s in comparison to now with a FIXED return of 12%, that is INSANE! 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is a direct correlation. CD rates are less then 1% right now. You could save so much money in the 80s in comparison to now with a FIXED return of 12%, that is INSANE! 

How does the math workout though when you factor in appreciation of the property? Would the money have been better served invested  in CDs or property?

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Strongly disagree with this. 

In the 80s your car would have been a POS that was lucky to start every morning. Remember when having 100k miles was a big deal? Corvettes had 185hp...

I didnt have a color tv in the 80s, id venture to say that the 60" HD tv you can buy now for $400 costs less and looks a little better than that black and white tv.

In every field Ive worked in, from running my own biz from 18-22, to sales, to now engineering has made me infinitely more productive in my job. Not because I work more but because of all the troubleshooting knowledge I have at my fingertips. I dont have to dig through manuals. I can also browse forums to see if other people have had the same issues, In general a lot of employers are pulling back on working hours as they realize people are more productive when they have better work life balance.

As far as houses go they may not be nicer but theyre way more affordable Mortgage interest rates in the 80s were 10-20%. Now theyre 3-4.

I do agree that internet / electronic options have made certain work functions more efficient and productive.  As an engineer I can attest to this.  However, I lived through the 1970s, 80s and yes, TV's are nicer today and relatively less costly but that's qualitative...not real standard of living...which amounts to having disposable income.  Everyone lives the sort of life they want differently.  If you want to measure "living standards" and inflation by the way the BLS or Fed does (using hedonic adjustments and substitution methods), then fine, its an arguable point.  

You are also correct about mortgages.  However, as we know, that's due to the artificial influences of the Federal Reserve Bank pinning interest rates low - and now essentially buying up the Bond market.  If rates normalied as in a  capitalist economic system,  to say 7%, say goodbye to the auto industry and R/E.  Noone is buying those at 7% at todays prices, while making 1990s level relative income.  In essense, the whole thing has become an artificial construct.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said:

How does the math workout though when you factor in appreciation of the property? Would the money have been better served invested  in CDs or property?

It would be better to rent a cheap house and put the rest in the CD. Home appreciation was not substantial enough to compensate for a guaranteed annual return of 12%. The composite S&P index over the course of history is right around 8% (Obviously lower now with this virus) 

[wolfie09]

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

New York new cases from 6,240 yesterday to 6,553 today. Deaths also up from 671 to 778. Looks like were still going up to me. 

Yeah but those are considered "lag" numbers (deaths) with many of those people possibly on ventilators for weeks.. I'd like to see what the numbers look like in a few days and hopefully they start going down..

You can see the updated numbers during this morning news conference as well as the governors relationship with the federal government..(starts at min 35)

 

[DeltaT13]

32 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Throw a few Trillion at the market and algo's buy.  I think it may be that simple.  The Fed has created $ out of thin air to cover a lot of losses...(not individuals though...we get capitalism...big players get socialism when they implode).

I do think that the markets will have a reality check though as Quarterly earning start rolling in - and esp next Quarter.  You can bake in some of it in terms of reduced expectations but some of what we are going to see is going to be staggering.  At some point we will probably challenge the recent lows, IMO.

I'm sitting here in awe of these markets.  As you stated, the earnings reports coming in the next quarter or two are going to make peoples heads spin.  The market is going to implode so hard in the coming 6-12 months.  Hang on tight. 

[DeltaT13]

24 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Given that pandemics like this appear to be once in 100 year type events, not sure that the "mothballed" preparedness is entirely workable but some parts of it might be.  I'm going to guess that some PPE has a "shelf life" associated with it (hell my hardhat does - which seems a bit absurd).  You can't have special buildings set aside for this either...they need constant maintenance and such or turn into moldy death traps.   I think what this event has exposed is that noone was really prepared mentally or with a real plan, as to what to do.  Hence, panic, when a bunch of academics show up with what appear to be overly pessimistic models and leaders are left with little choice but to overreact, in part out of genuine concern and in part due to not wanting to be accused of "killing people"...by the usual suspects.   There have been no shortage of think tanks and studies that have been warning of our unpreparedness but none of that registered with the public or decision makers. 

As our society grows more fragile and values every single life at a higher and higher level, "pandemics" (or any illness than instills panic and fear) might occur on a much higher frequency. 

I agree it seems ludicrous to maintain such an inventory, but I bet that 5 percent of the annual military budget could support an entire system with almost full yearly replacement indefinitely.  Seems like a lot of bang for your buck. 

Your last sentence is important, many many people have surmised and envisioned this exact scenario.  We really should have done better.  This entire thing was mismanaged world wide nearly every step of the way.  

[MJO812]

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, MJO812 said:

CNN has officially lost it. 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That could be correct in some form, depending on the progress of treatments and a vaccine.  I'm 100% certain there will be increased focus on cleanliness and staying home when sick etc.  We still don't know what the true infection rate is, therefore we are still flying blind on Case Fatality Rates and so much more.  We need more testing ASAP including antibody testing.  Noone can properly assess risk with limited or no data...and that's basically where we are at.  In 1918/19 the world was a different place...

[BuffaloWeather]

Alright guys. I'm going to get infected and take one for the team to get it out of the way and give all ya'll antibodies so we can get past this nonsense. We need to be healthy and ready to go for the epic winter of 2020-2021 that is coming.

[BuffaloWeather]

1,555 deaths in USA so far on the day. Up from 1,535 yesterday. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Deaths in France, Italy, and UK went from up from yesterday. 

[Syrmax]

44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Alright guys. I'm going to get infected and take one for the team to get it out of the way and give all ya'll antibodies so we can get past this nonsense. We need to be healthy and ready to go for the epic winter of 2020-2021 that is coming.

This better be a hot AF Summer to boil off all the virus before winter!  Otherwise, i'll be installing a heater of some sort for my pool as i'm NOT doing a Summer Clampdown with a cold pool. First World problems.  

 

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

What studies is that based on?  Or were you just be imprecise?  

I agree that antibody testing needs to be rolled out.  But that's a pipe dream when we still have to ration actual virus tests...

I will check the source. It was stated somewhere that up to 50% of the population could be unaffected by the virus due to their DNA makeup.

[MJO812]

Very bad day today for the US, Italy and France. 

[MJO812]

The one thing I'm going to miss when we go back to normal is 0 traffic. It's great right now on the roads. 

[MJO812]

NYC  death count revised by near 4,000 bringing the death toll in NYC to over 10,000.

 

https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-death-count-revised-by-nearly-4000-bringing-citys-toll-to-over-10000/6103218/

[BuffaloWeather]

2200 deaths so far in USA today. The highest day by far. 1535 yesterday.

[wolfie09]

President Donald Trump on Tuesday abandoned his push for 'total authority' to reopen the country and said he would leave the decision in the hands of the individual governors of each state. 

'I will be speaking to all 50 governors very shortly. And I will then be authorizing each individual governor of each individual state to implement a reopening, very powerful reopening plan of their estate in a time in a manner which is most appropriate,' Trump said at his daily White House press briefing.

'The governors are responsible, they have to take charge and do a great job,' he said, a remarkable change from his angry tone on Monday, when Trump proclaimed he alone has the authority to reopen the economy, which is suffering in the wake of the coronavirus.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday abandoned his push for 'total authority' to reopen the country and said he would leave the decision in the hands of the individual governors of each state. 

'I will be speaking to all 50 governors very shortly. And I will then be authorizing each individual governor of each individual state to implement a reopening, very powerful reopening plan of their estate in a time in a manner which is most appropriate,' Trump said at his daily White House press briefing.

'The governors are responsible, they have to take charge and do a great job,' he said, a remarkable change from his angry tone on Monday, when Trump proclaimed he alone has the authority to reopen the economy, which is suffering in the wake of the coronavirus.

Cuomo had done a 180 today too. What the hell is going on?

[WNash]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I will check the source. It was stated somewhere that up to 50% of the population could be unaffected by the virus due to their DNA makeup.

I wonder if this is related to blood type. Some viruses have an affinity to given blood types. Malaria, for instance, affects people with Type A more than other blood types. The COVID-19 causing virus seems to attack the capacity of red cells to carry O2, so it may well hit people one blood types harder than others.