Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[BuffaloWeather]

25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's widely accepted fact that nearly 95 percent (or even higher) of current hospitalizations are unvaccinated.  I have enough friends working in the hospitals to confirm this first hand with them.  The vaccine absolutely lessens severity to a very significant degree.  How do you even question that at this point? There is a mountain of data to back it up, but I'm going to assume you don't trust the CDC so I'll save my breath.

And to Syrmax, since when did this become completely about deaths.  I have virtually no fear of dying from covid, but I know more than enough long haulers to know that the risk of covid runs much deeper than just dying.  This thing ****s with the heart, nerves, brain, lungs, sense of taste and smell.  It's pretty alarming.  I don't understand people who want to just pretend this isnt a scary new virus.  I fully think it was produced in a lab which makes it even more concerning.  

You guys are being ridiculous.

The vaccine definitely works Pfizer and Moderna are both 93% effective against Delta at month 6, pretty impressive. This website also provides further evidence of how effective the vaccines are. Breakthrough cases that require hospitalization of the non-vaccinated is like .003%. 

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/

[lakeeffectkid383]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NFL season starts tonight! Does anyone play fantasy football at all? I join 5-6 leagues a year, I'm addicted.

Let me in your league again. I came in second that year with you and took home like $200-$300 if I remember correctly. We’re you the winner that season or no? I feel like you were. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Let me in your league again. I came in second that year with you and took home like $200-$300 if I remember correctly. We’re you the winner that season or no? I feel like you were. 

You're too good at fantasy, no invites. 

Sending you link now. 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

38 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's widely accepted fact that nearly 95 percent (or even higher) of current hospitalizations are unvaccinated.  I have enough friends working in the hospitals to confirm this first hand with them.  The vaccine absolutely lessens severity to a very significant degree.  How do you even question that at this point? There is a mountain of data to back it up, but I'm going to assume you don't trust the CDC so I'll save my breath.

And to Syrmax, since when did this become completely about deaths.  I have virtually no fear of dying from covid, but I know more than enough long haulers to know that the risk of covid runs much deeper than just dying.  This thing ****s with the heart, nerves, brain, lungs, sense of taste and smell.  It's pretty alarming.  I don't understand people who want to just pretend this isnt a scary new virus.  I fully think it was produced in a lab which makes it even more concerning.  

You guys are being ridiculous.

The report from the cluster in CT showed that of the 5 hospitalizations 4 were break through cases, so no I dont think its widely accepted yet.

As someone who had covid and is vaccinated I can say personally i'd rather deal with my lingering loss of smell than the utter cataclysmic collapse that the global economy is heading for. Stainless tubing pricing is up 50% and lead times are out 4 months. Your food is made in that tubing. Every project I'm working on is facing delay after delay and price increases. Wait till all of that starts getting passed on to the consumer.

[wolfie09]

1 week from today the Yankees and white Sox will be playing in Iowa at the filming site of "field of dreams"..

They built it and now they will come lol

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31964948/chicago-white-sox-new-york-yankees-unveil-throwback-uniforms-field-dreams-game

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

1 week from today the Yankees and white Sox will be playing in Iowa at the filming site of "field of dreams"..

They built it and now they will come lol

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31964948/chicago-white-sox-new-york-yankees-unveil-throwback-uniforms-field-dreams-game

Yankees might be making a comeback into the playoffs. 

[TugHillMatt]

29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

1 week from today the Yankees and white Sox will be playing in Iowa at the filming site of "field of dreams"..

They built it and now they will come lol

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31964948/chicago-white-sox-new-york-yankees-unveil-throwback-uniforms-field-dreams-game

A couple of weeks from today, average overnight lows start dropping more. 

I am more excited about that. 

Enjoy that cold pool, @Syrmax... 

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

You guys are being ridiculous.

Really? So what are the alternatives given what is known using an intelligent application of risk tolerance?  Masks forever? Economies hobbled indefinately with various restrictions? That's what the media and certain other entities are driving us towards.  Pretty much that cure is worse, and certainly more absurd, than the disease, long term.  

[DeltaT13]

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Really? So what are the alternatives given what is known using an intelligent application of risk tolerance?  Masks forever? Economies hobbled indefinately with various restrictions? That's what the media and certain other entities are driving us towards.  Pretty much that cure is worse, and certainly more absurd, than the disease, long term.  

Why not just have a reasonable approach to a significant new disease?  You are acting like this is literally nothing and we should all just pretend it doesn't exist.  It's a wildly contagious dangerous virus that will now be here forever without a significant effort to thwart it. Acknowledge that its dangerous instead of blowing it off like its an outright hoax.  I know people who have died that should still be here.  It's the real deal for many of us.      

[StormfanaticInd]

14 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Really? So what are the alternatives given what is known using an intelligent application of risk tolerance?  Masks forever? Economies hobbled indefinately with various restrictions? That's what the media and certain other entities are driving us towards.  Pretty much that cure is worse, and certainly more absurd, than the disease, long term.  

We can't overwhelm indefinitely either...

[vortmax]

You guys are being a little crazy...on both sides..lol

First:

95% efficacy is a mathematical calc of the following (Pfizer phase 3 trial example):

Now divide the infection risks between both groups (which is people that got infected AND showed symptoms) and you get:

So, from the beginning, with a 95% efficacy, they were expecting at least 131,200 breakthrough cases in the US if everyone got the Pfizer (or Moderna as the efficacy is similar) vaccine, but even more if only using the J&J (66% efficacy). We have a mix here so a lot of breakthrough cases were expected.

Now they used the Astazeneca vaccine in Gibraltar, which has an efficacy of only 76%. Breakthrough cases will be even a greater % there. Again, expected. EVEN SO, look at the difference in the pre-vax w/o Delta timeframe and the post-vax w/Delta timeframe. It IS working, and quite well.

 

 

Second:

Now most of these vaccines have very high %'s of preventing serious symptoms and keeping normally healthy people out of the hospital. This is happening and it's a good thing. The 4 of 5 people hospitalized in Provincetown is not a true reflection of the vaccine's performance because ALL 4 were not normally healthy. They had multiple health issues.

Third:

We can't just lock down forever, but can't be careless either. I think the balance in the US is actually OK. I think lockdowns are unnecessary at this point and will inflict too much collateral damage.

Once we hit herd immunity through vaccines and our normal immune systems, however, these variants won't keep getting everyone sick. Most that are getting sick now are people that aren't vaxxed and haven't had Covid yet.

Also, once the whole world gets herd immunity, variants won't have nearly as much population to mutate. Delta is only real because of the huge India event, for example. REMEMBER: Covid 19 has a relatively LOW mutation rate (especially comparted to the Flu) because of its 'proofreading' mechanism (which the Flu virus does not have and therefore mutates at 4x the rate). That's a BIG deal and the reason why Covid won't be "indefinite", as some of you say.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

20 minutes ago, vortmax said:

You guys are being a little crazy...on both sides..lol

First:

95% efficacy is a mathematical calc of the following (Pfizer phase 3 trial example):

Now divide the infection risk (which is people that got infected AND showed symptoms) and you get:

So, from the beginning, with a 95% efficacy, they were expecting at least 131,200 breakthrough cases in the US if everyone got the Pfizer (or Moderna as the efficacy is similar) vaccine, but even more if only using the J&J (66% efficacy). We have a mix here so a lot of breakthrough cases were expected.

Now they used the Astazeneca vaccine in Gibraltar, which has an efficacy of only 76%. Breakthrough cases will be even a greater % there. Again, expected. EVEN SO, look at the difference in the pre-vax w/o Delta timeframe and the post-vax w/Delta timeframe. It IS working, and quite well.

 

 

Second:

Now most of these vaccines have very high %'s of preventing serious symptoms and keeping normally healthy people out of the hospital. This is happening and it's a good thing. The 4 of 5 people hospitalized in Provincetown is not a true reflection of the vaccine's performance because ALL 4 were not normally healthy. They had multiple health issues.

Third:

We can't just lock down forever, but can't be careless either. I think the balance in the US is actually OK. I think lockdowns are unnecessary at this point and will inflict too much collateral damage.

Once we hit herd immunity through vaccines and our normal immune systems, however, these variants won't keep getting everyone sick. Most that are getting sick now are people that aren't vaxxed and haven't had Covid yet.

Also, once the whole world gets herd immunity, variants won't have nearly as much population to mutate. Delta is only real because of the huge India event, for example. REMEMBER: Covid 19 has a relatively LOW mutation rate (especially comparted to the Flu) because of its 'proofreading' mechanism (which the Flu virus does not have and therefore mutates at 4x the rate). That's a BIG deal and the reason why Covid won't be "indefinite", as some of you say.

Very well said, thanks for putting this together. 

 

 

[TugHillMatt]

26 minutes ago, vortmax said:

You guys are being a little crazy...on both sides..lol

First:

95% efficacy is a mathematical calc of the following (Pfizer phase 3 trial example):

Now divide the infection risk (which is people that got infected AND showed symptoms) and you get:

So, from the beginning, with a 95% efficacy, they were expecting at least 131,200 breakthrough cases in the US if everyone got the Pfizer (or Moderna as the efficacy is similar) vaccine, but even more if only using the J&J (66% efficacy). We have a mix here so a lot of breakthrough cases were expected.

Now they used the Astazeneca vaccine in Gibraltar, which has an efficacy of only 76%. Breakthrough cases will be even a greater % there. Again, expected. EVEN SO, look at the difference in the pre-vax w/o Delta timeframe and the post-vax w/Delta timeframe. It IS working, and quite well.

 

 

Second:

Now most of these vaccines have very high %'s of preventing serious symptoms and keeping normally healthy people out of the hospital. This is happening and it's a good thing. The 4 of 5 people hospitalized in Provincetown is not a true reflection of the vaccine's performance because ALL 4 were not normally healthy. They had multiple health issues.

Third:

We can't just lock down forever, but can't be careless either. I think the balance in the US is actually OK. I think lockdowns are unnecessary at this point and will inflict too much collateral damage.

Once we hit herd immunity through vaccines and our normal immune systems, however, these variants won't keep getting everyone sick. Most that are getting sick now are people that aren't vaxxed and haven't had Covid yet.

Also, once the whole world gets herd immunity, variants won't have nearly as much population to mutate. Delta is only real because of the huge India event, for example. REMEMBER: Covid 19 has a relatively LOW mutation rate (especially comparted to the Flu) because of its 'proofreading' mechanism (which the Flu virus does not have and therefore mutates at 4x the rate). That's a BIG deal and the reason why Covid won't be "indefinite", as some of you say.

Such a voice of moderation and reason!

[wolfie09]

Yankees going through their 2nd or 3rd "outbreak" of the season..As of right now 3 players have tested positive the past week..MLB has been doing a good job tracing and isolating before it becomes a bigger issue.. Biggest difference between baseball and football is minor leagues which the NFL doesn't have, so teams can just call up players to replace those on the covid list..

[TugHillMatt]

Hmmm, interesting turn of events. @BuffaloWeather, you had asked me yesterday about upcoming school policies... looks like New York is going to leave it up to local school districts and counties to decide, which actually surprises me. Seems like some are upset because they were hoping for direction from the state (as was promised) and now aren't getting it.

I personally think it's wise and doesn't infringe too harshly upon public freedoms. Local officials know best how Covid is affecting their local community. Many of those local officials have been voted in by those citizens to help make these decisions. Locally, Ryan McMahon has done a decent job with coordinating across Onondaga county.

(Secretly, I'm curious how much of this is affected by the recent Cuomo news....LOL)

 

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Such a voice of moderation and reason!

Says Mr Sizzle!   (it was a great response, well thought out and presented).

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, vortmax said:

You guys are being a little crazy...on both sides..lol

First:

95% efficacy is a mathematical calc of the following (Pfizer phase 3 trial example):

Now divide the infection risk (which is people that got infected AND showed symptoms) and you get:

So, from the beginning, with a 95% efficacy, they were expecting at least 131,200 breakthrough cases in the US if everyone got the Pfizer (or Moderna as the efficacy is similar) vaccine, but even more if only using the J&J (66% efficacy). We have a mix here so a lot of breakthrough cases were expected.

Now they used the Astazeneca vaccine in Gibraltar, which has an efficacy of only 76%. Breakthrough cases will be even a greater % there. Again, expected. EVEN SO, look at the difference in the pre-vax w/o Delta timeframe and the post-vax w/Delta timeframe. It IS working, and quite well.

 

 

Second:

Now most of these vaccines have very high %'s of preventing serious symptoms and keeping normally healthy people out of the hospital. This is happening and it's a good thing. The 4 of 5 people hospitalized in Provincetown is not a true reflection of the vaccine's performance because ALL 4 were not normally healthy. They had multiple health issues.

Third:

We can't just lock down forever, but can't be careless either. I think the balance in the US is actually OK. I think lockdowns are unnecessary at this point and will inflict too much collateral damage.

Once we hit herd immunity through vaccines and our normal immune systems, however, these variants won't keep getting everyone sick. Most that are getting sick now are people that aren't vaxxed and haven't had Covid yet.

Also, once the whole world gets herd immunity, variants won't have nearly as much population to mutate. Delta is only real because of the huge India event, for example. REMEMBER: Covid 19 has a relatively LOW mutation rate (especially comparted to the Flu) because of its 'proofreading' mechanism (which the Flu virus does not have and therefore mutates at 4x the rate). That's a BIG deal and the reason why Covid won't be "indefinite", as some of you say.

This is great. My entire main friends group are so anti vax its insane. One of them works in the hospital in Ortho as a Physicians assistant and his mom is a RN and also anti vax. Feelsbadman.

[wolfie09]

Many more people wearing mask locally the last few days, could just be a "coincidence" but probably 10 people at the food store wearing a mask today, last week mask were non existent..

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hmmm, interesting turn of events. @BuffaloWeather, you had asked me yesterday about upcoming school policies... looks like New York is going to leave it up to local school districts and counties to decide, which actually surprises me. Seems like some are upset because they were hoping for direction from the state (as was promised) and now aren't getting it.

I personally think it's wise and doesn't infringe too harshly upon public freedoms. Local officials know best how Covid is affecting their local community. Many of those local officials have been voted in by those citizens to help make these decisions. Locally, Ryan McMahon has done a decent job with coordinating across Onondaga county.

(Secretly, I'm curious how much of this is affected by the recent Cuomo news....LOL)

 

If Cuomo wasn't under investigation you can almost guarantee that he would have a statewide mask mandate by now. He has bigger things to worry about.

[Syrmax]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

If Cuomo wasn't under investigation you can almost guarantee that he would have a statewide mask mandate by now. He has bigger things to worry about.

Exactly why I support him staying in office.

[StormfanaticInd]

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Do you have hospitalization data?

[StormfanaticInd]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you have hospitalization data?

 

[Syrmax]

24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I thought we were at 70% for adults, nationwide? Supposedly that was a Biden Admin goal for July 4th, that we met a little late? Maybe I'm confusing metrics.

[StormfanaticInd]

8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I thought we were at 70% for adults, nationwide? Supposedly that was a Biden Admin goal for July 4th, that we met a little late? Maybe I'm confusing metrics.

I think this is for the whole population 

[vortmax]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I think this is for the whole population 

Including children that can't get it? If so, that's a shady way of presenting the data. 

[wolfie09]

Per CDC data released Sunday, 168.4 million people are fully vaccinated, or 49.6% of the US population. Among vaccine-eligible Americans -- meaning those who are 12 and older -- 58.1% are fully vaccinated.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/covid-19-vaccine-doses-administered/index.html

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Says Mr Sizzle!   (it was a great response, well thought out and presented).

I was being sincere. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Many more people wearing mask locally the last few days, could just be a "coincidence" but probably 10 people at the food store wearing a mask today, last week mask were non existent..

I have noticed this as well. July was pretty mask-free around here...but I have noticed more masks on people since last week. Even down in Tennessee, I was a bit surprised to see masks on some people. 

Media is doing its part in influencing people and perhaps reigniting some fear. I have a friend who is teetering on what to do and panicking about wearing a mask or not because of recent reports.