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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

wolfie09

By wolfie09,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, champy said:

WSB told me to hold my 12.25 shares until they are worth least 1K each. Even now has been a healthy profit from an initial $200 investment. They're pimping BB and NOK now too. It's like 1998 all over again...

This is very akin to 1998/99, in terms of an irrational Bubble.  We are very near the top i suspect. This whole Gamestop episode (and others like it that have been going on recently) make me think this is going to unwind violently sooner than later. We may be calling this the Gamestop Top.   Watch the Fed statement tomorrow. They may try to play with language to scare the markets a bit. Even though their policy have a hand in this bubble, they have to be looking for ways to vent some pressure here.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

This is very akin to 1998/99, in terms of an irrational Bubble.  We are very near the top i suspect. This whole Gamestop episode (and others like it that have been going on recently) make me think this is going to unwind violently sooner than later. We may be calling this the Gamestop Top.   Watch the Fed statement tomorrow. They may try to play with language to scare the markets a bit. Even though their policy have a hand in this bubble, they have to be looking for ways to vent some pressure here.

What type of bubble are you thinking? I see stocks going up for awhile as we recover from covid. I think the real correction is 2-3 years from now minimum. 2020/1st half of 2021 featured lockdowns that severely impacted businesses and their reporting/numbers. Those numbers will likely skyrocket with gov't money and people leaving homes again. Lots of good data will be coming out.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What type of bubble are you thinking? I see stocks going up for awhile as we recover from covid. I think the real correction is 2-3 years from now minimum. 2020/1st half of 2021 featured lockdowns that severely impacted businesses and their reporting/numbers. Those numbers will likely skyrocket with gov't money and people leaving homes again. Lots of good data will be coming out.

It's more complex than that I suspect. But what you state, broadly, is the current conventional wisdom that has been fueling the "reflation" trade.  And its largely predicated on the idea that the covid tunnel will be ending soon. And that's probably too optimistic.  I could be wrong but the key i-m watching is the USD reversing higher with an increase in 2s&10s bond yields. More immediately, there is a slew of market technical indicators starting to flash real warning signs. One example is that the Put/Call ratio is at historic lows in an overheated market.   Don't know when this happens but I suspect February will be rough (its seasonality sucks also), so I am beginning to take profits and keep my trade durations on a tight leash.  In fact, the best thing working is day trading large short squeezes. Noone's ever seen this magnitude and raw number of them.  Which is another indication somethings really getting whacky. Also, by Feb the big cap earnings reports will be done with...leaving the smaller end of the market remaining to roll out to probably disappointing results as that's where the covid recession is happening. Coupled with Buyer exhaustion and possible Fed jawboning...could be catalysts for a correction.  Sideways correction would be good but conditions are too extreme for that so i suspect a fast violent move is more likely.  Followed by more stimulus and Fed action to pump markets back up again.  That's my thinking anyway.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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@BuffaloWeather  (and anyone else) here's An interesting youtube video on Bitcoin if you have 30 minutes to kill, from somebody who i have followed for years. Raoul Pal veered off the conventional high finance world for the most part and is now concentrating on Bitcoin.  He got me interested in getting into Etherium and Bitcoin last year.  It's an interesting perspective on the future of finance and money...recorded last October so relatively recent. Very easy listen, more a macro case for BTC.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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10 hours ago, Syrmax said:

@BuffaloWeather  (and anyone else) here's An interesting youtube video on Bitcoin if you have 30 minutes to kill, from somebody who i have followed for years. Raoul Pal veered off the conventional high finance world for the most part and is now concentrating on Bitcoin.  He got me interested in getting into Etherium and Bitcoin last year.  It's an interesting perspective on the future of finance and money...recorded last October so relatively recent. Very easy listen, more a macro case for BTC.

Gamestop and now AMC. A new world we're living in. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Gamestop and now AMC. A new world we're living in. 

Looked like all hell was breaking loose at the open today. Most trading platforms were experiencing severe problems early. Now I've battled back green and buying MOAR! Staying away from GME and AMC. Many other easy targets of opportunity.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

vanguard trading is down and brokers are stopping people from buying GME?!?! The interview just now on CNBC was pure gold go watch now if you haven't. 

Just watched Chamath filet the idiot Wapner live on CNBC.  This guy is spot on.  CNBS is just a sell side bucket shop. God forbid retail small guys use a momentum strategy to blow up hedge funds taking massive short positions.  It's ok for instirutions to lever up and get 140% short on a stock but not ok when WSB retail ram it up their azz.

And Wapner...so 'concerned' that people will get hurt in the trade.  I half expected him to beg them to wear masks next.  Fake condescending BS.

What are you gonna do? Spreadsheet it?? LMAO

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

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28 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Just watched Chamath filet the idiot Wapner live on CNBC.  This guy is spot on.  CNBS is just a sell side bucket shop. God forbid retail small guys use a momentum strategy to blow up hedge funds taking massive short positions.  It's ok for instirutions to lever up and get 140% short on a stock but not ok when WSB retail ram it up their azz.

And Wapner...so 'concerned' that people will get hurt in the trade.  I half expected him to beg them to wear masks next.  Fake condescending BS.

What are you gonna do? Spreadsheet it?? LMAO

Who is that guy?  Nice mouth on him. 

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Just watched Chamath filet the idiot Wapner live on CNBC.  This guy is spot on.  CNBS is just a sell side bucket shop. God forbid retail small guys use a momentum strategy to blow up hedge funds taking massive short positions.  It's ok for instirutions to lever up and get 140% short on a stock but not ok when WSB retail ram it up their azz.

And Wapner...so 'concerned' that people will get hurt in the trade.  I half expected him to beg them to wear masks next.  Fake condescending BS.

What are you gonna do? Spreadsheet it?? LMAO

Don’t you think that you’re creating a bubble. There’s no way the fundamentals of GameStop can support the price it’s at. At some point the party will be over and it could get ugly in a hurry. We are probably near the top of this market. Other than a few small stock positions the extent of my market involvement is in a 454b plan that has done quite well over the past 5 years. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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28 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Don’t you think that you’re creating a bubble. There’s no way the fundamentals of GameStop can support the price it’s at. At some point the party will be over and it could get ugly in a hurry. We are probably near the top of this market. Other than a few small stock positions the extent of my market involvement is in a 454b plan that has done quite well over the past 5 years. 

A temporary bubble in that stock...sure.  The bigger bubble to be concerned about is due to Congress spending and Fed policy.  CNBC and pols don't want to talk about that. If markets were a true reflection of the economy everyone's 401k's would be 201k's.. again.

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

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6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

A temporary bubble in that stock...sure.  The bigger bubble to be concerned about is due to Congress spending and Fed policy.  CNBC and pols don't want to talk about that. If markets were a true reflection of the economy everyone's 401k's would be 201k's.. again.

The stock market isn’t a reflection of the economy. I believe the Fed’s been pumping exorbitant amounts of money into the market going back to the recession over 10 years ago. Why else are interest rates as low as they are?  When I was a kid back when dinosaurs were walking the earth my first savings account paid 5% interest. I guess things were a lot more real back then. And don’t you think that when GameStop comes back to earth that there are going to be people left holding the bag?  I don’t mind what’s going on with the Fed. My 454b account has gone up by 50% since I retired 4 1/2 years ago and that’s without me adding any contributions to it and taking a modest distribution from it every year. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

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8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

The stock market isn’t a reflection of the economy. I believe the Fed’s been pumping exorbitant amounts of money into the market going back to the recession over 10 years ago. Why else are interest rates as low as they are?  When I was a kid back when dinosaurs were walking the earth my first savings account paid 5% interest. I guess things were a lot more real back then. And don’t you think that when GameStop comes back to earth that there are going to be people left holding the bag?  I don’t mind what’s going on with the Fed. My 454b account has gone up by 50% since I retired 4 1/2 years ago and that’s without me adding any contributions to it and taking a modest distribution from it every year. 

I agree with all of that. There will be bag holders in GME and any other stock there always are and always will be.  I've been one more times than I can count...but much like every single winning day trade I make, I take profits and usually don't top tick anything. If people are too stupid to do that...well...you're never gonna fix that.  Wall Street and their shill media, CNBC, Bloomcrap, WSJ, just don't like that the "wrong" people are winning here and one of their Bruhs got taken out.  

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