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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The ravens scare me. But you have to beat the best to get to the superbowl. Lamar is a terrible QB, but an amazing RB. Have Milano spy him the entire game.

Yeah the Titans made two huge mistakes: dropping the spy on Lamar on that 48 yard run, and abandoning the long passing game that tore up Baltimore’s secondary in the first half. They thought they could win by running Henry into an eight man box. 

The Bills won’t make the first mistake. Tennessee stomped Baltimore in last year’s playoffs because they schemed to contain Lamar on every play. The Bills will do the same, except Buffalo has a far better defense than the Titans. And on offense, Josh needs to keep hitting Baltimore on the long shots as long as they’re giving them away. But it will be important to have the running game going if Baltimore drops multiple LBs into pass coverage. Josh can tuck and run, but the Ravens will cheap shot a QB at any opportunity. 
 

I can see Cleveland winning in KC in a shocker. If the Bills take care of business against Baltimore, two weeks from today they could be playing in Orchard Park for the Super Bowl.

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18 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

Wow just got notification I can get vaccinated as part of the 1B roll out which includes employers in food and beverage. I was wrong on how quickly we’d be able to produce and distribute a vaccine. 
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-expanded-vaccination-network-accelerate-distribution-covid-19-vaccine

 

They are starting to show up at local pharmacies this week. Pretty amazing.

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Vaccines are definitely ramping up quickly. Should hit 2-5 million a day in the next few weeks they're saying. In combination with herd immunity/flu season ending in a few months I think by summer hospitals are all back to normal! 

U.S. Daily Covid Vaccinations Rise by Record 1.25 Million

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/u-s-daily-covid-vaccinations-rise-by-record-1-25-million?srnd=prognosis

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On 1/10/2021 at 11:42 AM, SyracuseStorm said:

Love that pic!  Yeah- always remember calories in, calories out.  Also, I am 6’ 3” and 238 pounds so a i would drop 5-8 pounds of water the first week of keto (while heavier at 255-260)and then it was a slow drop for weeks until it started to snowball after 2-3 weeks in terms of weight loss.  Find out your BMR (typically body weight x 12 so your BMR or calories burned at rest is roughly 2000 calories.  There are many calculators for macros although I never used them.  With keto, you can easily double that so proceed with caution.

I am dealing with COVID and recovering so still eating good meats but added carbs and “regular food” to boost my immune system.  After this is over, I will be doing more of carnivore type lifestyle, only eating meat and supplementing with vitamins and minerals.  Have done carnivore and keto and for me, carnivore worked best because I literally ate once or twice a day, usually 1 or 2 ribeye steaks- that’s it.  Just found it more convenient as getting quality high fat can be a challenge while traveling.

best of luck!

i've been doing a low carb diet, for the most part, since mid 2020 and have dropped 35-40 lbs.  Had i not been drinking, i'd probably have lost another 15-20 lbs and be near my target weight.  But it was 2020 so...sacrifices had to be made.  ;)

 

 

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On 1/10/2021 at 10:18 PM, WNash said:

Yeah the Titans made two huge mistakes: dropping the spy on Lamar on that 48 yard run, and abandoning the long passing game that tore up Baltimore’s secondary in the first half. They thought they could win by running Henry into an eight man box. 

The Bills won’t make the first mistake. Tennessee stomped Baltimore in last year’s playoffs because they schemed to contain Lamar on every play. The Bills will do the same, except Buffalo has a far better defense than the Titans. And on offense, Josh needs to keep hitting Baltimore on the long shots as long as they’re giving them away. But it will be important to have the running game going if Baltimore drops multiple LBs into pass coverage. Josh can tuck and run, but the Ravens will cheap shot a QB at any opportunity. 
 

I can see Cleveland winning in KC in a shocker. If the Bills take care of business against Baltimore, two weeks from today they could be playing in Orchard Park for the Super Bowl.

I think Buffalo has a better chance of containing Lamar than KC would.  If KC has an Achilles's heel its their defense although Mahomes obviously makes up for a lot of defensive sins.  Would make for an entertaining game though.

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Last month, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the NFL anticipated a 20 percent seating capacity. If that pans out for the February 2021 event, it comes out to a little more than 13,000 fans in the stands for a stadium that seats about 66,000 people. Superbowl is in Tampa Florida this year, I'd expect even more than 20% fans. 

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On 1/10/2021 at 11:16 AM, rochesterdave said:

My stocks have been going gang busters. Exceptionally nuts since the election. I bought oil at the bottom. Got Boeing and Carnival at the bottom. Sold both of them. Bought Amazon at 1800. 
My thinking, in March, was that the virus was over exaggerated and that the down turn was a flash sell. Boy was I wrong but it still panned out. Crazy. I’ve never been part of a big run like this. I have a bad history timing stocks. I went nearly all in with this one (well, maybe 50%)- I’m conservative. And so far, I’ve gotta be up nearly 50%, across the board. It’s been a fun year for $. Gotta think inflation is gonna come knocking? But I’m worse at prognosing economic things than I am at weather- you didn’t think it possible did you?!?!?

Few of us are consistently (or ever) good at timing stocks.  Really takes a lot of attention and proper mindset...   The big investment/trade thesis right now is a forward looking "Reflation"...as economy recovers.  Makes some sense as a narrative...pent up demand particularly in the areas that have been hammered by covid (entertainment, travel, food, etc.).  Not so much the "harder" sectors like say, Home Depot or cars or computers.  People apparently did some of that extra buying in those areas last year but those aren't every-year purchases. You don't remodel a kitchen every year.   So some spending was "pulled forward".  This is why OIl & materials/metals are surging.   The big thing i've been advised to watch is Bond yields and the USD.  Noone knows at what point the market will respond but if the 10Y rate gets up over 120 or 150 bps we will probably start to see "issues" in stocks.  Also High Yield debt (JNK and HYG) serve as (usually) decent indication of risk on/off appetite.  IF the USD reverses and heads back up with rates...with everyone on the same side of the boat of the Reflation trade...beware.  The Fed is already jawboning about more "Yield Curve Control" by purchasing MOAR long dated Treasuries...they already have the short end pinned at essentially 0 with "real" 2Y & 10Y rates (inflation adjusted) <0%.  

The Fed HAS to keep rates pretty low or everything literally blows up. If they "lose control" of the Treasury curve and rates blow out, that'll make the Corona hit look tame.

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'm hoping the rangers can build on last year, they have a pretty good young club..See what Alexis Lafrenière can do in his first season..

Laf is an incredible player. NYR did a pretty quick rebuild. They get lucky being NYC and everyone wanting to play there. That's how they were able to get Panarin. 

Does anyone know who makes the playoff with new structure, is it the top 4 teams in each division?

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19 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Few of us are consistently (or ever) good at timing stocks.  Really takes a lot of attention and proper mindset...   The big investment/trade thesis right now is a forward looking "Reflation"...as economy recovers.  Makes some sense as a narrative...pent up demand particularly in the areas that have been hammered by covid (entertainment, travel, food, etc.).  Not so much the "harder" sectors like say, Home Depot or cars or computers.  People apparently did some of that extra buying in those areas last year but those aren't every-year purchases. You don't remodel a kitchen every year.   So some spending was "pulled forward".  This is why OIl & materials/metals are surging.   The big thing i've been advised to watch is Bond yields and the USD.  Noone knows at what point the market will respond but if the 10Y rate gets up over 120 or 150 bps we will probably start to see "issues" in stocks.  Also High Yield debt (JNK and HYG) serve as (usually) decent indication of risk on/off appetite.  IF the USD reverses and heads back up with rates...with everyone on the same side of the boat of the Reflation trade...beware.  The Fed is already jawboning about more "Yield Curve Control" by purchasing MOAR long dated Treasuries...they already have the short end pinned at essentially 0 with "real" 2Y & 10Y rates (inflation adjusted) <0%.  

The Fed HAS to keep rates pretty low or everything literally blows up. If they "lose control" of the Treasury curve and rates blow out, that'll make the Corona hit look tame.

With all the government money being pumped into the economy and the country recovering from Covid I expect a pretty large market boom the next 1-2 years followed by a pretty severe correction somewhere between 2022-2024. The market is currently being artificially inflated by trillions of dollars pumped into it the last year. 

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Laf is an incredible player. NYR did a pretty quick rebuild. They get lucky being NYC and everyone wanting to play there. That's how they were able to get Panarin. 

Does anyone know who makes the playoff with new structure, is it the top 4 teams in each division?

Yeah that's what it sounds like..

Then you have 1vs4 2vs3 in the playoffs..

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24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I also have no idea why the yanks are playing hardball with DJ, I know it's not my money but gotta pay your good players.. He's been one of the best players in baseball since the yanks got him..

Let him go...to the Mets!! ;)

Finally i have renewed interest now that the hated Wilpon's are out and we have a real owner. 

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Screenshot_20210113-095503.png

So ready for the season to begin! Saw a stat today that I had to look twice at...Sabres haven’t played a game in 307 days! Almost a full calendar year. If it did one thing it allowed all the guys who had any injuries to be fully healthy for this 56 game sprint. It also helped to preserve Jack a little bit. He’s a year older but doesn’t have another year of wear and tear on him. He also bulked up another 15lbs to 223lbs...combine him with Tage at 230lbs on the first line with hall and look the $@!# out!!!

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11 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Countercyclical spending is the right approach now. I’m seeing the value in the MMT approach to monetary policy. Float money to the broader economy with direct payments and necessary projects to take up the slack in economic productivity, and reel in the money through taxation changes when the private economy is capable of being more generative.

This should keep a bear market away for now, but I’m still thinking bonds are a good play. Maybe an inflation hedge like a precious metals fund if the price is right. I’m sure people are using BTC/crypto as a hedge as well, but I don’t have confidence in the stability of that market (which is probably my loss, but miss me with that opportunity).

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