Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[Syrmax]

On 12/23/2020 at 3:31 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Just found out the other day that one of good friends from college is officially a "Covid Long hauler" with heart issues stemming from her infection she got earlier this month. She was a moderate case with O2 sats dipping to 89/90 and had to use a proning technique that her uncle taught her to breathe better. She's over the lung issues for the most part. She still gets winded on longer walks and enhanced physical activity. Her heart is under-going anomalous palpitations, so she saw a cardiologist and they did a weeklong test with a portable EKG. She has classic PVC episodes now, and are textbook for people with heart problems that are induced by Covid. She is a healthy 27 year old who ran every other day since I've known her. No other health issues outside allergies in the spring. She got it an outdoor wedding end of November. Her husband got it too, but he was fine. He's O neg blood type and she's A+. The blood type and impact from Covid definitely holds some weight. It's crazy. Just be careful to all in here. You just never know. Light at the end of the tunnel is visible thankfully. Screw 2020  

Sad to hear about the long hauler. Hope she fully recovers. This has seemed to be a blood interactive / dependent disorder all along. One can argue mortality stats but the long haul effect is real and much different from ordinary flu. Thankfully its a low percentage outcome.  Somewhat similar long haul effects were observed in the 1918 flu...never fully understood, nor were some people's seeming resistance to that flu, who were in susceptible age groups.  Blood type suspected factor but never fully fleshed out.

IMO 2020+1 (2021) will not be demonstrably different from 2020. Its telegraphed by the course of typical viral infection progressions and from the stated intention for indefinate continuation of "precautions" to continue irrespective of vaccine deployment. Certainly "life" and business will not be permitted to return to normal until 2022, at best. Another long haul effect to get one's mind around.

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Sad to hear about the long hauler. Hope she fully recovers. This has seemed to be a blood interactive / dependent disorder all along. One can argue mortality stats but the long haul effect is real and much different from ordinary flu. Thankfully its a low percentage outcome.  Somewhat similar long haul effects were observed in the 1918 flu...never fully understood, nor were some people's seeming resistance to that flu, who were in susceptible age groups.  Blood type suspected factor but never fully fleshed out.

IMO 2020+1 (2021) will not be demonstrably different from 2020. Its telegraphed by the course of typical viral infection progressions and from the stated intention for indefinate continuation of "precautions" to continue irrespective of vaccine deployment. Certainly "life" and business will not be permitted to return to normal until 2022, at best. Another long haul effect to get one's mind around.

Thanks man. She's currently doing alright with the current meds they put her on, but routine cardiologist appointments will now be in her future plans. The blood interactive component of the virus is truly a marvel, and this is certainly not the first disease that has prompted such a RUI (Return upon Infection). The precautionary bits have been met with a calamity of issues from flat out denial and political pandering. The scientific field has taken a step back this past year in some ways due due to the political fantasies of both parties. One side being unrealistic in the scientific merit of what has been found and happening in-front of our eyes. The other in full sublime dissonance when it comes to the economic toll of just "shutting down" industry without any sense of financial assistance needed to keep said business afloat. That's a story for another time.

The human toll of this pandemic is something I hope to never see ever again. Communicable diseases are a completely different beast than say Cancer or any type of disease due to human genetic mutation factors and non-transmissible components (Type 2 diabetes for example). One thing I learned from the pandemic are there are a lot of selfish pricks in this country, and globally, and stupidity has run amuck on society. That's a pandemic that will never be solved and is growing at an uncomfortable rate. Sad but true story there. Stay safe up there!    

[WNash]

7 hours ago, cny rider said:

 

I agree with you in that order, but there's a big drop off in my confidence after the first three.

I think to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, you are going to have to beat the Chiefs.

But getting there via the Titans or especially the Ravens is going to be very tough.

 

 

I’m a Titans fan, and the Tennessee pass rush is so poor that the Bills would easily win with just an average performance. 

[40westwx]

Interesting article about Nursing Home Neglect and excess mortality:

https://apnews.com/article/nursing-homes-neglect-death-surge-3b74a2202140c5a6b5cf05cdf0ea4f32

BTW.. Letlow died of a Heart Attack.. in case you are confused

[OSUmetstud]

My 68-year old uncle is hospitalized with COVID19 in Pittsburgh. He's been feverish with lung and kidney issues. They have him on Remdesivir (whatever) and steroids. Hoping for the best there. 

This is the latest CDC estimate of total infections through the end of November. 

91 million, 28% of the US population. 

49 million in the 18 to 49 cohort, 36%. 

(9 million in the 65+ cohort, 17%)

While the individual risk of dying of COVID19 as a young or middle aged adult is relatively low, only about 0.02%, given the number of people infected, its a large population-level mortality and morbidity event with about 12000 deaths or so and 888k hospitalizations. Excess deaths by age is quite high in that cohort because so many of have been infected, given the number of essential workers, and those who have been convinced this is just an older person's disease and have been taking little or no precautions. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

[40westwx]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

91 million, 28% of the US population

Sorry to hear that about your uncle. Both of my grandmothers and my aunt died of Pneumonia but they had a plethora of other health issues leading up to that.  I wish him the best..

regarding your post, 91 million people have contracted covid 19 and the Crude death numbers for the last three months are less than that of the three month period to start 2018 (our last bad flu season).

Something is not right...

Do you think that the death numbers are simply wrong?  That many many more people have died in the last three months than what the CDC is reporting?  I have attached the raw data.

 

 

season58.json season60.json

[40westwx]

Actually @OSUmetstud I am reading the disclaimers on the cdc website and it looks like they are the gold standard for mortality.. those weekly death numbers are pretty much dead on... 

How is that possible?  How can we have 1.5 million people a week getting COVID 19, but the weekly mortality statistics look like a bad flu season?  

I am so confused.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, 40westwx said:

Sorry to hear that about your uncle. Both of my grandmothers and my aunt died of Pneumonia but they had a plethora of other health issues leading up to that.  I wish him the best..

regarding your post, 91 million people have contracted covid 19 and the Crude death numbers for the last three months are less than that of the three month period to start 2018 (our last bad flu season).

Something is not right...

Do you think that the death numbers are simply wrong?  That many many more people have died in the last three months than what the CDC is reporting?  I have attached the raw data.

 

 

season58.json 151.64 kB · 0 downloads season60.json 106.54 kB · 0 downloads

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

Read the caveats. The mortality data for the past several weeks is incomplete. If you look at it on a regular basis, the last several weeks go up. 

[40westwx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

Read the caveats. The mortality data for the past several weeks is incomplete. If you look at it on a regular basis, the last several weeks go up. 

Thats why I cut it off at week 49.  We are in week 52 now.  They give "percent complete" and week 49 was the last week that was at 100%... 

I think the numbers right... 

 

[40westwx]

I know two people who died of COVID 19 - 

1- my tenant - who was a recovering alcoholic, COVID hit and in person meetings ended - he relapsed and drank him self to death - negative covid test

2- friends mother - nursing home neglect.. wasnt allowed to leave her room, blod clots, stroke - negative covid'

Both cases, the family had to fight to get the cause of death changed on the death certificate (both we initially COVID)

WTF is going on here?

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, 40westwx said:

Thats why I cut it off at week 49.  We are in week 52 now.  They give "percent complete" and week 49 was the last week that was at 100%... 

I think the numbers right... 

 

Nope. Listen, you've been shown data consistently through the beginning of the pandemic that this is not the flu and you continue to ignore it. 

[40westwx]

33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Nope. Listen, you've been shown data consistently through the beginning of the pandemic that this is not the flu and you continue to ignore it. 

What I posted was the total deaths for week 40 - 49. The CDC says that these weeks are 100% complete.  Here is a small portion from the User Interface:

Total Deaths: 

10 weeks in 2018 - January - March: 614,497

10 weeks in 2020 - October - December: 602,574 

These numbers are 100% complete for both years.

[40westwx]

The little question mark says:
 

"The NCHS surveillance data based P&I percentage for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. This number indicates the percentage of all deaths that are expected to be reported that have been received in the system by the date of the report."

[40westwx]

and Letlow died of a heart attack

[40westwx]

@OSUmetstud I spent 5 years at Centers For Medicare and Medicaid as a Software Engineer and Data Architect.  I know how to analyze health care data.  I have been looking at this data for the last 9 months every day.. I have multiple programs that I run on a daily basis to provide summaries.  

The crude death numbers dont lie.  

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, 40westwx said:

@OSUmetstud I spent 5 years at Centers For Medicare and Medicaid as a Software Engineer and Data Architect.  I know how to analyze health care data.  I have been looking at this data for the last 9 months every day.. I have multiple programs that I run on a daily basis to provide summaries.  

The crude death numbers dont lie.  

Then you would know that deaths from week 48 have gone up by 7361 since December 23rd then. 55748 to 63109. There's a huge lag because it's taking time to tabulate the unusually high death numbers. The numbers for the last several weeks have gone up on each daily update. They are not complete, unlike the bad flu season of 2017-2018, which are. 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19

LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus.

"It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions.

"It was just COVID," the chancellor said.

LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.

[OSUmetstud]

December 23rd update to December 30th update

Week 48>+7361 55748 to 63109

Week 47>+2984 61323 to 64307

Week 46>+1536 63592 to 65124

Week 45>+882 63163 to 64045

Week 44>+541 62641 to 63182

 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, WNash said:

I’m a Titans fan, and the Tennessee pass rush is so poor that the Bills would easily win with just an average performance. 

Our rushing defense is so poor, Henry might get 300 yards. 

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

My 68-year old uncle is hospitalized with COVID19 in Pittsburgh. He's been feverish with lung and kidney issues. They have him on Remdesivir (whatever) and steroids. Hoping for the best there. 

 

I have seen info that points to Ivermectin as being a better option then Remdesivir by a wide margin. It's an anti parasite drug that's been around a long time so its pretty well understood in terms of side effects etc.  There have apparently been dozens of small scale studies that point to its efficacy being quite remarkable... esp compared to Remdesivir.  Off the top of my head not sure if it needs to be taken early on or not.  News of it is apparently being squashed/ignored by big tech/media as it doesn't comport with the narrative in place. If I ever get this and need treatment  I'll be asking for a scrip for that vs Remdesivir, which looks like it's much less effective 

[40westwx]

51 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

December 23rd update to December 30th update

Week 48>+7361 55748 to 63109

Week 47>+2984 61323 to 64307

Week 46>+1536 63592 to 65124

Week 45>+882 63163 to 64045

Week 44>+541 62641 to 63182

 

here are my numbers for 2020.. these include the updates you are talking about:

 

weekNumber totalDeaths
40 57,667
41 59,097
42 57,489
43 58,833
44 59,659
45 62,697
46 63,321
47 63,941
48 62,063
49 57,807

 

but the fact that we are even comparing this:

 

Total Deaths: 

10 weeks in 2018 - January - March: 614,497

10 weeks in 2020 - October - December: 602,574 

These numbers are 100% complete for both years.

 

is ridiculous... Given the response.. There should be no comparison.  

[OSUmetstud]

24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Our rushing defense is so poor, Henry might get 300 yards. 

We held Henry to 57 yards on 19 carries during the first game. Have you watched how this defense has played the past half of the season? It's been one of the best in the league. 

[OSUmetstud]

9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I have seen info that points to Ivermectin as being a better option then Remdesivir by a wide margin. It's an anti parasite drug that's been around a long time so its pretty well understood in terms of side effects etc.  There have apparently been dozens of small scale studies that to its efficacy being quite remarkable... esp compared to Remdesivir.  Off the top of my head not sure if it needs to be taken early on or not.  News of it is apparently being squashed/ignored by big tech/media as it doesn't comport with the narrative in place. If I never get this and need treatment  I'll be asking for a scrip for that vs Remdesivir, which looks like it's much less effective 

I haven't seen any large studies on Ivermectin, but I've heard some of the optimism. Remdesivir seems to have very limited efficacy. Like it might work a bit on patients with low-flow oxygen, but otherwise not really. The steroids still remain the main effective drug for sure since the early days. 

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

We held Henry to 57 yards on 19 carries during the first game. Have you watched how this defense has played the past half of the season? It's been one of the best in the league. 

I don't know I watched a bunch of teams gash us this year. Obviously having Milano back is HUGE. .

We are ranked 20th against the run overall out of 32 teams. Without Milano were bottom 5. 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?lg=NFL&yr=2020&type=reg&cat=R&group=D&conf=

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't know I watched a bunch of teams gash us this year. Obviously having Milano back is HUGE. 

I mean our pass defense is better than our rush defense for sure (this is ideal in the modern NFL, anyway). But this defense has been solid since the mid part of the season. It was really bad early on. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I mean our pass defense is better than our rush defense for sure (this is ideal in the modern NFL, anyway). But this defense has been solid since the mid part of the season. It was really bad early on. 

 

I'm really worried about Beasleys impact on our short passing game. He is Allens safety blanket. 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't know I watched a bunch of teams gash us this year. Obviously having Milano back is HUGE. .

We are ranked 20th against the run overall out of 32 teams. Without Milano were bottom 5. 

https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?lg=NFL&yr=2020&type=reg&cat=R&group=D&conf=

Yeah, some of that is biased towards early on in the year. Plus, there are scoring effects. The Bills are usually on top, so the basic defensive stats will look worse than they are for garbage time. 

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, 40westwx said:

Interesting article about Nursing Home Neglect and excess mortality:

https://apnews.com/article/nursing-homes-neglect-death-surge-3b74a2202140c5a6b5cf05cdf0ea4f32

BTW.. Letlow died of a Heart Attack.. in case you are confused

I've been looking at excess mortality #s since early on and there has been an increase above what normally be expected in just about every nation that keeps track of this stat.  Unfortunately, its hard/impossible to definitively separate true covid deaths from knock on effects of pandemic restrictions, which are real, and contribute to mortality. Possibly more real then some of the covid-19 cause of death assignments, at least in the US.  Whether any of that is statistically significant remains to be seen.  A lot of that type analysis will be "soft" in nature due to differing methods of assigning cause of death, etc.  May be years before this is fully determined, if ever.

[BuffaloWeather]

That politician who died at 41, people say he died from a heart attack. Isn't one of the side effects of Covid heart issues? We saw that with the Jaguars RB and a few other athletes. 

[Syrmax]

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean our pass defense is better than our rush defense for sure (this is ideal in the modern NFL, anyway). But this defense has been solid since the mid part of the season. It was really bad early on. 

 

One thing is for certain...the Browns fans will be rooting hard for the Bills sunday as I believe a Dolphins win gets them a WC spot over Cleveland even if the Browns defeat Pitt this weekend.

[Syrmax]

As a NYG fan, I'm ok if the Giants don't "win" the NFC East. The embarassment/notoriety of going to the playoffs at 6-10 might outweigh the benefit of getting in and getting curb stomped in the first round.