Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[BuffaloWeather]

History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. (October-December) Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think.

[40westwx]

20 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Well some positive news... We are having a record low number of influenza cases this year... Yet Erie County is still far and away the highest concentration...

 

Other really good news is that the mortality rates for 2020 were just released (cdc does it in season.. September to September)

The death rate - deaths per 100,000 people was about the same as the last few years:

 

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year	Death Rate	Growth Rate
2020	8.880	1.120%
2019	8.782	1.120%
2018	8.685	1.220%
2017	8.580	1.240%
2016	8.475	1.270%
2015	8.369	1.270%
2014	8.264	1.290%
2013	8.159	0.090%
2012	8.152	0.090%

 

Crude death rates jumped by a couple 100 thousand, and thats on par with jumps we have seen in previous years.  Every year about 3 million people die... so to see a spike in a couple hundred thousand is normal.. also remember our population growth rate is also at 1-2%.. thats six million people a year.  

 

 

[40westwx]

The jump in 2013 to 2014 is an interesting one.. I feel like it has to do with some sort of improvements in reporting or something.. kinda like when temperature reporting in urban areas increase exponentially and all the sudden annual global temps rise.. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

22 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone know where in Erie County you can get rapid test for free?

Not sure free?  But here’s a link to all the testing sites in Erie County and shows which ones do rapid tests.  Hospitals Urgent Cares have them but it’s like $250 there even with insurance...

 

https://erieny.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0c46f6677fbd49f5b8cf7548e8efe58b

[fujiwara79]

6 hours ago, 40westwx said:

Other really good news is that the mortality rates for 2020 were just released (cdc does it in season.. September to September)

The death rate - deaths per 100,000 people was about the same as the last few years:

 

United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year	Death Rate	Growth Rate
2020	8.880	1.120%
2019	8.782	1.120%
2018	8.685	1.220%
2017	8.580	1.240%
2016	8.475	1.270%
2015	8.369	1.270%
2014	8.264	1.290%
2013	8.159	0.090%
2012	8.152	0.090%

 

Crude death rates jumped by a couple 100 thousand, and thats on par with jumps we have seen in previous years.  Every year about 3 million people die... so to see a spike in a couple hundred thousand is normal.. also remember our population growth rate is also at 1-2%.. thats six million people a year.  

 

 

Those 2020 numbers are based on UN projections and do not include impacts from COVID-19.  That disclaimer is written at the top of the page where it’s sourced from.  I understand you’re a full blown denier but at least read the sources that you reference from.

[WNash]

3 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

Those 2020 numbers are based on UN projections and do not include impacts from COVID-19.  That disclaimer is written at the top of the page where it’s sourced from.  I understand you’re a full blown denier but at least read the sources that you reference from.

I’ve seen this same misleading statistic cited on Facebook and Twitter. The context is always removed. Out of curiously I tried to track it back to a source. It should surprise no one that like-minded denialists create and retweet/share this stuff and amplify it so much that it’s difficult to determine who was the first person to misrepresent and share it. A few times members of this site have shared similarly misleading data points — sometimes about COVID, sometimes about election fraud — and have been laughed at.

So it’s possible that he shared the UN data without knowing that he had zero credibility. But why don’t people ask simple questions — is the information current, is the information relevant, is the source authoritative, is the information presented in context, and most importantly, what is the purpose of the information and the point of view of the source ? It’s a basic test of the legitimacy and reliability of information, and this stuff fails that test much of the time, because it isn’t produced to inform but to mislead. Asking “whose interests does this serve” is critically important.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[MJO812]

Well there goes that

[BuffaloWeather]

[skierinvermont]

On 10/2/2020 at 9:41 AM, skierinvermont said:

This is a lie and you know it is. As I have explained 7 times to you over the last month, wind and solar energy cost approximately the same as natural gas, and much less than coal. This is why wind and solar are already being chosen by the free-market and comprise nearly 50% of new electric generation capacity over the last 5 years. In other words, when a power company has to decide what new power to build, they choose either wind or natural gas, and occasionally solar, because these are the cheapest sources. With a modest investment at the federal level, this process could be sped up dramatically without any increase in electric costs (with a small cost to the taxpayer). It would dramatically improve our ozone and PM2.5 pollution in addition to reducing future climate change. Countries like Germany have already succeeded in this with only 39% of energy coming from fossil fuels, while maintaining a very high standard of living.

Your Haiti and economic destruction scare tactics are despicable, fly in the face of the most basic facts (that have been shared with you 8 times now), and reveal your complete lack of objectivity. Your lies do not fool or convince anybody.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

 

 

On 11/19/2020 at 3:28 AM, Luke_Mages said:

You’re wrong on this point. Without heavy subsidies it’s not cheaper yet. (Won’t be for some time) And countries like the US and can afford that, but what happens in India? Or how about when Africa starts industrializing? What we do here in the US and Europe (China is a joke) won’t do anything to slow the warming that will be caused by that. I’m not saying to be irresponsible with the environment, I’m saying the money being subsidized would be best spent relocating people, infrastructure improvements like flood control for NYC harbor, and investments in fission and fusion power. 

 

You are wrong. Half of NEW power in the U.S. is already coming from wind and solar with little to no subsidies because the free market chooses wind and solar because it's cheap. The U.S. Energy Information Administration under Trump shows that solar and wind are as cheap as natural gas which is the cheapest fossil fuel source. The market is basically 10% solar 40% wind and 50% nat gas at this point. They continue to build nat gas because it's roughly the same price and it makes sense to diversify. Modest subsidies would decisively shift the market to solar and wind so instead of 50/50 we'd see 80/20 or 90/10. Power companies would still build some nat gas in order to diversify and reduce risk.

Get your head out of the 2005.. this is 2020. Wind and solar are cheap.

[BuffaloWeather]

COVID-19 passes heart disease as leading killer in U.S. last week: study

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-heart-disease-leading-killer-20201206-nfuejkbc7rg6fhzhqnmtlycxem-story.html

[Buckeyes_Suck]

7 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

 

 

You are wrong. Half of NEW power in the U.S. is already coming from wind and solar with little to no subsidies because the free market chooses wind and solar because it's cheap. The U.S. Energy Information Administration under Trump shows that solar and wind are as cheap as natural gas which is the cheapest fossil fuel source. The market is basically 10% solar 40% wind and 50% nat gas at this point. They continue to build nat gas because it's roughly the same price and it makes sense to diversify. Modest subsidies would decisively shift the market to solar and wind so instead of 50/50 we'd see 80/20 or 90/10. Power companies would still build some nat gas in order to diversify and reduce risk.

Get your head out of the 2005.. this is 2020. Wind and solar are cheap.

Wrong. Name one solar or wind power manufacturer who is t heavily leveraging tax credits. Locally solar city is getting over $750M. FCE, who I did engineering work on, wouldn’t even exist without heavy govt subsidies. They also only exist because of carbon credits as they are now being used to eat carbon emissions from coal and gas power plants. 
I’m not saying keep burning fossil fuels. I think solar and nuclear should be the future with nat gas being used to compensate for load demands. (Solar and nuclear can’t adjust fast enough.)

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

COVID-19 passes heart disease as leading killer in U.S. last week: study

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-heart-disease-leading-killer-20201206-nfuejkbc7rg6fhzhqnmtlycxem-story.html

That headline is slightly deceiving...many of those people dying of covid would have died of heart disease. 

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

That headline is slightly deceiving...many of those people dying of covid would have died of heart disease. 

what is your point. For all you know they could have lived another year or 5 years or even 10 years. The fact of the matter is Covid shortened their lives and that sucks. Why does it matter that they would have died eventually from heart disease. 

[WNash]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

what is your point. For all you know they could have lived another year or 5 years or even 10 years. The fact of the matter is Covid shortened their lives and that sucks. Why does it matter that they would have died eventually from heart disease. 

This pandemic has really brought the eugenicists out of the closet.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Go Bills!!!  That is all...

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Allen played at MVP level tonight. I think we can take the Steelers, they did not look good tonight. Chiefs are only team I'm really worried about in entire NFL.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

7 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

what is your point. For all you know they could have lived another year or 5 years or even 10 years. The fact of the matter is Covid shortened their lives and that sucks. Why does it matter that they would have died eventually from heart disease. 

Because the article leaves out the fact that many of those people would not have died had they been healthy. Instead it’s written with a headline meant to grab clicks and make people even more paranoid. 

[Flying MXZ]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Allen played at MVP level tonight. I think we can take the Steelers, they did not look good tonight. Chiefs are only team I'm really worried about in entire NFL.

Wow.  You lost to the Cardinals and got blown out by the Titans (along with the Chiefs beating you).  But there is only 1 team you're worried about?

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 hours ago, WNash said:

This pandemic has really brought the eugenicists out of the closet.

Never been in the closet on the fact that we are generally de-evolving. Idiocracy got it right. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

Wow.  You lost to the Cardinals and got blown out by the Titans (along with the Chiefs beating you).  But there is only 1 team you're worried about?

Cardinals got lucky on a Hail Mary. 
Titans are pretty good if you haven’t noticed. 
Bills defense has been looking a lot like last years and they’re getting healthy.
Offense is moving the ball at will even wo John Brown. 
So ya I’d say I’d least want to see the chiefs in the playoffs. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Flying MXZ said:

Wow.  You lost to the Cardinals and got blown out by the Titans (along with the Chiefs beating you).  But there is only 1 team you're worried about?

With how the Bills are playing right now I feel like we can beat any team on any given night. I haven't felt that way in over 2 decades. Since the 99 season. 

[BuffaloWeather]

First vaccines being administered in England today. Pretty huge day. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

With how the Bills are playing right now I feel like we can beat any team on any given night. I haven't felt that way in over 2 decades. Since the 99 season. 

I’m slightly older so I remember growing up knowing nothing but winning. And then I got to high school and it was all downhill from there. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just found out I was exposed to a confirmed covid case, will be getting a rapid test downtown Buffalo on Thursday. Only $65 but employer is paying for it anyways. 
 

 

[Flying MXZ]

9 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

Cardinals got lucky on a Hail Mary. 
Titans are pretty good if you haven’t noticed. 
Bills defense has been looking a lot like last years and they’re getting healthy.
Offense is moving the ball at will even wo John Brown. 
So ya I’d say I’d least want to see the chiefs in the playoffs. 

 

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

With how the Bills are playing right now I feel like we can beat any team on any given night. I haven't felt that way in over 2 decades. Since the 99 season. 

These make sense to me. But to say you’re only worried about 1 team tells me you think no one else can beat you. 

[brentrich]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First vaccines being administered in England today. Pretty huge day. 

and there has been several reports about side effects, not looking good. 

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, brentrich said:

and there has been several reports about side effects, not looking good. 

source or link ?

[wolfie09]

4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

source or link ?

The FDA says Pfizer’s Covid vaccine is safe and effective. But trial participants warn of intense symptoms after second shot

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html

[OSUmetstud]

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The FDA says Pfizer’s Covid vaccine is safe and effective. But trial participants warn of intense symptoms after second shot

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/08/pfizer-moderna-covid-vaccine-side-effects-trials.html

I don't like the headline. They aren't in contrast to each other. Feeling kinda shitty for a day or two doesn't mean it's not safe.