BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, WNash said: I have been reading about this because I wondered the same thing. The process of compiling ballots and recording vote tallies is called vote canvassing, and has always had inherent error rates. Recount and audit thresholds are around 0.5 percent because that threshold considerably exceeds the average counting error of electronic vote canvassing. At precinct or district or county level, electronic voting has dramatically reduced the error rate of vote canvasses, but the problem is that the inevitable errors that creep into electronic vote canvasses tend to be much larger than hand ballot counting errors. To explain it succinctly, there are fewer errors in counting ballots by machine than by hand counting, but the errors tend to be much larger in scale. The 2600 found ballots represents a level of error equivalent to about 5 ballots in 10000. Hand counts yield a much higher error rate, but the thing with human error is that instances are distributed randomly, and the chances that one campaign would net enough votes to change the result is extremely unlikely unless the race is far closer than this one. The recount in Wisconsin in 2016 yielded a change of Trump’s lead of 131 votes, increasing his lead of 0.77% to a lead of 0.7701%. Absolutely minuscule. In Georgia, those 2600 votes netted about 800 votes for Trump, about 6% of Biden’s lead. That seems like a lot until you realize that there would have to be about 19 errors like that for Trump to take a lead — a systematic bias so unlikely that it would almost certainly demonstrate fraud. But despite the Trump campaign’s attempt to uncover fraud, there is absolutely no evidence for it. Trump and his proxies have made a lot of public claims about actual fraud, but whenever they have had the opportunity to put those claims before an actual judge, they back down and make it clear that they have no evidence, and ask for relief from the court for something other than fraud, because the sanctions for getting in front of a judge and making demonstrably false claims are very serious. So... there’s nothing at all that implies anything fishy is going on, and in fact it’s growing more obvious by the day that the Trump strategy is to use unwarranted claims of fraud to push the argument that the remedy is to throw out legitimate ballots of hundreds of thousands of actual voters who cast votes in good faith following the correct process to vote. Anyone who doesn’t see the danger of that has warped their brains with the dumbest forms of politics. Not really something fishy, but the accuracy of the vote is pretty sad. Every vote doesn't matter if you dont truly count every vote. How do you just lose 2700 votes? What if something like this happened in a larger populated district? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 This lock down is lame. I could just go a few counties over to the gym and get my haircut, nothing like Aprils thank goodness. Without PPP this go around, lots of restaurants and smaller businesses will be closing if this last awhile. Meanwhile Walmart and Amazon get richer and richer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 53 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This lock down is lame. I could just go a few counties over to the gym and get my haircut, nothing like Aprils thank goodness. Without PPP this go around, lots of restaurants and smaller businesses will be closing if this last awhile. Meanwhile Walmart and Amazon get richer and richer. For you literally one town over. Village of Hamburg they are closed... Go 5 minutes down the road to village of Boston and open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Time to do nationwide lockdown or need to do it ASAP. 1600+ deaths yesterday and we have chance of hitting 2k deaths today (right now it's at 1500+). NYC schools are closing and monroe county is about to go in orange zone soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, brentrich said: Time to do nationwide lockdown or need to do it ASAP. 1600+ deaths yesterday and we have chance of hitting 2k deaths today (right now it's at 1500+). NYC schools are closing and monroe county is about to go in orange zone soon. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: No. Yes, it's going to happen. Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not really something fishy, but the accuracy of the vote is pretty sad. Every vote doesn't matter if you dont truly count every vote. How do you just lose 2700 votes? What if something like this happened in a larger populated district? Well, from what I have been reading, when ballots were tabulated by hand (as recently as 2012), the average miscount in an election — votes counted wrong or not at all — was around 1.4%. That rate would have represented about 65,000 votes this year in Georgia alone, and those were generally not addressed unless the margin of the election was within a 0.5% recount threshold. This paper explains the above very clearly and gives much more detail than I can: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4852/299c36ad9ffab0e18bfa077cb7b4ad3493af.pdf. Keep in mind that Trump didn’t gain 2600 votes from the recount — he gained 800 or so votes, because the 2600 votes split something like 1700 for Trump and 900 for Biden. And an update earlier today showed that 78 of the counties in Georgia completed audits/recounts. 57 of them had zero changes. 21 came out one vote off. We have a dumb voting system designed to be cumbersome for voters and to allow for a lot more error than we settle for anywhere else. I’d be annoyed if they didn’t count my vote on the first attempt to count, but this is a case of Hanlon’s razor — “never attribute to malice that which is better explained by incompetence.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 I guess GA finished ahead of schedule.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 Recount in only 2 counties in WI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 48 minutes ago, brentrich said: Yes, it's going to happen. Just wait. Look, while I think the best way to get this under control is 15 -20 days of real lockdown, there are powerful people who exploit ignorance, stubbornness, and antipathy to discourage individuals from doing things that are inarguably in everyone’s interest. Biden can make a proclamation of a national lockdown, but many people won’t care, and others will actually do the opposite because polarization is a well developed and highly effective strategy for a small elite to maintain their wealth and power. The best we can hope for, frankly, is that whatever local or state lockdowns that happen are effective enough to make people in places ruled by leaders who oppose lockdowns understand that they don’t have to let loved ones suffocate to death with no family or friends to comfort them. Watching governors who have made all kind of anti-mask statements fold like a hold em player with a 2-7 offsuit hand gives you a sense of how this might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, WNash said: Look, while I think the best way to get this under control is 15 -20 days of real lockdown, there are powerful people who exploit ignorance, stubbornness, and antipathy to discourage individuals from doing things that are inarguably in everyone’s interest. Biden can make a proclamation of a national lockdown, but many people won’t care, and others will actually do the opposite because polarization is a well developed and highly effective strategy for a small elite to maintain their wealth and power. The best we can hope for, frankly, is that whatever local or state lockdowns that happen are effective enough to make people in places ruled by leaders who oppose lockdowns understand that they don’t have to let loved ones suffocate to death with no family or friends to comfort them. Watching governors who have made all kind of anti-mask statements fold like a hold em player with a 2-7 offsuit hand gives you a sense of how this might happen. It’s not necessarily because people are listening to people in power. My opinion on lockdowns being ridiculous for something with a 0.7% mortality rate has nothing to do with what trump or anyone else says. It has everything to do with me looking at the situation objectively. I can also say that I’ve yet to work with someone in my field (engineer in the food and dairy industry) who is pro lockdown. We all have been pro mask and working safe but in our field we all have to go to work and keep pressing on. Several food plants have had covid outbreaks and we’ve dealt with it and moved on. I’ve had to work in some of these plants. I wore a mask, kept my distance, and every test I’ve had has come back negative. We do not need more lockdowns. Trillions of dollars in debt isnt going to just disappear. Some of these countries that depend on tourism won’t come back. NYC will hemorrhage money for the next decade as they recover from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: It’s not necessarily because people are listening to people in power. My opinion on lockdowns being ridiculous for something with a 0.7% mortality rate has nothing to do with what trump or anyone else says. It has everything to do with me looking at the situation objectively. I can also say that I’ve yet to work with someone in my field (engineer in the food and dairy industry) who is pro lockdown. We all have been pro mask and working safe but in our field we all have to go to work and keep pressing on. Several food plants have had covid outbreaks and we’ve dealt with it and moved on. I’ve had to work in some of these plants. I wore a mask, kept my distance, and every test I’ve had has come back negative. We do not need more lockdowns. Trillions of dollars in debt isnt going to just disappear. Some of these countries that depend on tourism won’t come back. NYC will hemorrhage money for the next decade as they recover from this. 250,000 dead people aren’t going to come back to life either. How many more people do we need to lose before the vaccine is administered widely enough to make a difference. I think if you were 30 years older your attitude would be different. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Trump is silent. When America needs him the most, he hides in his basement. SMH Pritzker: COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death in Illinois https://wgem.com/2020/11/18/pritzker-covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-illinois/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 250,000 dead people aren’t going to come back to life either. How many more people do we need to lose before the vaccine is administered widely enough to make a difference. I think if you were 30 years older your attitude would be different. AMEN TO THAT! Right now we are at almost 2k deaths per day and it's going to get worse next few months before vaccine becomes available in few months. Look at Australia, they were on lockdown recently for 6 or 8 weeks and they have ZERO cases of Covid 19 for awhile now. That is why we need to do nationwide lockdown to save LIVES, worry about economy later because it can recover but dead people can't come back to life. I'm very grateful that Biden won because he said he will do 4-6 weeks lockdown in Jan when Trump get out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Trump is silent. When America needs him the most, he hides in his basement. SMH Pritzker: COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death in Illinois https://wgem.com/2020/11/18/pritzker-covid-19-is-now-the-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-illinois/ He isn't the only one, his little buddy down in FL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 Mayors want a mask mandate and he wants to pack football stadiums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 250,000 dead people aren’t going to come back to life either. How many more people do we need to lose before the vaccine is administered widely enough to make a difference. I think if you were 30 years older your attitude would be different. I work with three engineers in their mid to late 60s who the think same as I on this topic. 30 years from now I’ll be able look to back at how ridiculous this was and think the same. You guys have no grasp of numbers. 250k dead is a drop in the bucket. The lives being loss are generally out of the workforce and riddled with comorbidities. If we start seeing economies collapse the people dying from war and starvation won’t be. So no, I’d be just as objective and my opinion of something with a 0.7% mortality rate would be the same. 0.1% when you remove comorbidities. Ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 You can’t lock small businesses down without some type of government based help... simple as that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I work with three engineers in their mid to late 60s who the think same as I on this topic. 30 years from now I’ll be able look to back at how ridiculous this was and think the same. You guys have no grasp of numbers. 250k dead is a drop in the bucket. The lives being loss are generally out of the workforce and riddled with comorbidities. If we start seeing economies collapse the people dying from war and starvation won’t be. So no, I’d be just as objective and my opinion of something with a 0.7% mortality rate would be the same. 0.1% when you remove comorbidities. Ridiculous. Luke, could you please sign up for the politics sister board and come talk some sense to the people in the Covid thread over there? They don’t seem to understand large numbers and think 250k is the apocalypse http://www.americanpol.com/index.php?/forum/3-political-roundtable/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I work with three engineers in their mid to late 60s who the think same as I on this topic. 30 years from now I’ll be able look to back at how ridiculous this was and think the same. You guys have no grasp of numbers. 250k dead is a drop in the bucket. The lives being loss are generally out of the workforce and riddled with comorbidities. If we start seeing economies collapse the people dying from war and starvation won’t be. So no, I’d be just as objective and my opinion of something with a 0.7% mortality rate would be the same. 0.1% when you remove comorbidities. Ridiculous. I agree with you. My question is any virus ever the 3rd leading cause of death? That seems pretty bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I agree with you. My question is any virus ever the 3rd leading cause of death? Well to that I’d say why aren’t we taking draconian steps to combat the leading two causes? Why aren’t we shutting down all fast food restaurants and pulling foods loaded with sugar off the shelf’s? Why not force people to workout and be healthy? It wouldn’t take trillions of dollars to do that and you’d save a lot more lives. Hell if you did that less people would have the comorbidities that are making them susceptible to covid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Luke, could you please sign up for the politics sister board and come talk some sense to the people in the Covid thread over there? They don’t seem to understand large numbers and think 250k is the apocalypse http://www.americanpol.com/index.php?/forum/3-political-roundtable/ Im signed up there however that site is an unmoderated shit show. There is no talking any sense into anyone there. Especially Trix and Randy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Luke_Mages said: Im signed up there however that site is an unmoderated shit show. There is no talking any sense into anyone there. Especially Trix and Randy. fair enough bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I work with three engineers in their mid to late 60s who the think same as I on this topic. 30 years from now I’ll be able look to back at how ridiculous this was and think the same. You guys have no grasp of numbers. 250k dead is a drop in the bucket. The lives being loss are generally out of the workforce and riddled with comorbidities. If we start seeing economies collapse the people dying from war and starvation won’t be. So no, I’d be just as objective and my opinion of something with a 0.7% mortality rate would be the same. 0.1% when you remove comorbidities. Ridiculous. I am biting my tongue right now over your callousness. 250K is a drop in the bucket? What’s the matter with you man? Just think of the families of all these people. And your statement that lives being lost are out of the workforce (in other words worthless) and riddled with comorbidities (a burden on society) is straight out of 1930s Germany. I will be 66 next Tuesday and I’ve had bypass surgery, Type 2 diabetes and I’m scared shitless of this virus. I pray that when you’re older you will not be in a situation like this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Well to that I’d say why aren’t we taking draconian steps to combat the leading two causes? Why aren’t we shutting down all fast food restaurants and pulling foods loaded with sugar off the shelf’s? Why not force people to workout and be healthy? It wouldn’t take trillions of dollars to do that and you’d save a lot more lives. Hell if you did that less people would have the comorbidities that are making them susceptible to covid. True but I don’t want to overwhelm the hospital system. That’s what the initial lockdown was all about. We are not overwhelming the hospitals in WNY... either way I would never live in fear, no matter what age I am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I work with three engineers in their mid to late 60s who the think same as I on this topic. 30 years from now I’ll be able look to back at how ridiculous this was and think the same. You guys have no grasp of numbers. 250k dead is a drop in the bucket. The lives being loss are generally out of the workforce and riddled with comorbidities. If we start seeing economies collapse the people dying from war and starvation won’t be. So no, I’d be just as objective and my opinion of something with a 0.7% mortality rate would be the same. 0.1% when you remove comorbidities. Ridiculous. I work with plenty of people in there 60s who are terrified of catching this and having permanent damage or dying 20 years premature (and they have no serious comorbidities) Any person who doesn’t take this seriously Is foolish. I’ve seen enough stories on healthy people ending up in very rough shape, the chances are low but far from zero. I’m not taking any chances. 250k is a huge number for a disease that didn’t exist in this country 10 months ago. Drop in the bucket my ass, these are real people dying. Republicans are so crass and heartless, it’s unreal.....and they take pride in it. It’s bizarre and sad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I work with plenty of people in there 60s who are terrified of catching this and having permanent damage or dying 20 years premature (and they have no serious comorbidities) Any person who doesn’t take this seriously Is foolish. I’ve seen enough stories on healthy people ending up in very rough shape, the chances are low but far from zero. I’m not taking any chances. 250k is a huge number for a disease that didn’t exist in this country 10 months ago. Drop in the bucket my ass, these are real people dying. Republicans are so crass and heartless, it’s unreal.....and they take pride in it. It’s bizarre and sad. It has nothing to do with politics. I’ts everything to do with being objective. My fav paper written in college when I was a left leaning dem was that global warming isn’t the problem, overpopulation and where we chose to live is. That’s not being a crass republican, that’s being objective. You need to realize that we as humans overvalue our importance. You also need to remember what caused WW2. Germany was poor and starving and forced into expansion. What happens globally if the economy keeps shrinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: True but I don’t want to overwhelm the hospital system. That’s what the initial lockdown was all about. We are not overwhelming the hospitals in WNY... either way I would never live in fear, no matter what age I am. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Im signed up there however that site is an unmoderated shit show. There is no talking any sense into anyone there. Especially Trix and Randy. Cluck-cluck-cluck...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Completely agree. Then please explain why we are seeing 2k deaths daily, first 2k death today since April and it's going to get worse (4-5k deaths daily in few weeks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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