Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If the true rate of infection caught is 1 in 5 people. We're averaging 100k new case a day (conservative)* 5 500k cases a day. In 6 months were at herd immunity and the vaccine will be too late anyways?

What’s everyone thinking is causing the sudden spike?  I know elsewhere in the country some places are very lax on masks and other protocols, but I think we’re overall pretty good in NY following the guidelines.  We were good up through September and into October, what changed?  Are schools causing it?  Bars/Restaurants with outdoor dining not as much of an option now?  Indoor parties now with people not in your inner circle? Virus mutation with the season changing?  

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

What’s everyone thinking is causing the sudden spike?  I know elsewhere in the country some places are very lax on masks and other protocols, but I think we’re overall pretty good in NY following the guidelines.  We were good up through September and into October, what changed?  Are schools causing it?  Bars/Restaurants with outdoor dining not as much of an option now?  Indoor parties now with people not in your inner circle? Virus mutation with the season changing?  

Everything is open, community spread. In particular I think its the schools. Kids don't follow protocols, its impossible to keep track of hundreds of them running around all day. Having them go to school 2 days instead of 5 doesn't mean much. I don't understand that logic. It should be 100% home school or 100% in school.

[wolfie09]

Must of really been a terrible week for trump and company..lol

[BuffaloWeather]

Cuomos travel guidelines:

For any traveler to New York State from a noncontiguous state, US territory or CDC level 2 or level 3 country, the new guidelines for travelers to test-out of the mandatory 14-day quarantine are below:

• For travelers who were out-of-state for more than 24 hours:
  • Travelers must obtain a test within three days of departure, prior to arrival in New York.
  • The traveler must, upon arrival in New York, quarantine for three days.
  • On day 4 of their quarantine, the traveler must obtain another COVID test. If both tests comes back negative, the traveler may exit quarantine early upon receipt of the second negative diagnostic test.

Erie county released this statement today:

Health officials say they will offer tests to Erie County residents who are under quarantine as close contacts of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases or who are symptomatic Erie County residents.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/erie-county-department-of-health-announces-changes-in-covid-19-test-criteria-coronavirus/71-12aa0eca-9a9c-4596-8d34-a4404ebaa9bf

So how do you get a covid test if they're only giving them to those with symptoms and those in close contact with covid positives? This is obviously going to increase the rate of infection ten fold because you're only testing those with symptoms...

[BuffaloWeather]

The number of coronavirus patients in U.S. hospitals has surpassed the earlier two waves and now stands at nearly 62,000. The previous record was 59,940 on April 15

[BuffaloWeather]

We will likely be seeing 200-300k new cases a day in the next few weeks

[wolfie09]

 

[MillvilleWx]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The number of coronavirus patients in U.S. hospitals has surpassed the earlier two waves and now stands at nearly 62,000. The previous record was 59,940 on April 15

At this rate, the whole herd immunity strategy is going to take shape despite it being an absolutely abysmal idea. There has never been a true herd immunity for any communicable disease in modern history, and for good reason. Traditional coronaviruses are more benign in nature and do not have ARDS tendencies, despite having 40-60% genome similarities to the two main SARS viruses. This one was particularly more lethal due to its high transmission potential and ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor. The only saving grace for SARS-CoV2 is it doesn't have the same mutation rates as influenza viruses due to lack of antigenic drift tendencies that aid flu virus production. 

We'll lose over 450k people in a year at the current rate, which will be ~75% of the total population lost in the Great Influenza, prior to modern medicine. If we didn't have the tools we have now, it would be the worst epidemic in history for the US (At least with proper numerical data to process. Yellow fever and small pox in the early days of the US and colonial period may have a say on that considering how many natives died from it). 

My wife is pretty high risk for Covid and any other respiratory illnesses due to her heart conditions (Born with a rare congenital heart defect called Total Pulmonary Venus Return). She also has restrictive cardiomyopathy and prone to atrial flutter from her naturally weak heart. At this point, have to be super conservative to prevent her from catching it. Soon as we can get a vax, we are taking it. Hope everyone here can stay safe. Hope there's some lake effect to be had in the future. I'll be living vicariously through y'all from my dirt here in West TX. Cheers y'all 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomos travel guidelines:

For any traveler to New York State from a noncontiguous state, US territory or CDC level 2 or level 3 country, the new guidelines for travelers to test-out of the mandatory 14-day quarantine are below:

• For travelers who were out-of-state for more than 24 hours:
  • Travelers must obtain a test within three days of departure, prior to arrival in New York.
  • The traveler must, upon arrival in New York, quarantine for three days.
  • On day 4 of their quarantine, the traveler must obtain another COVID test. If both tests comes back negative, the traveler may exit quarantine early upon receipt of the second negative diagnostic test.

Erie county released this statement today:

Health officials say they will offer tests to Erie County residents who are under quarantine as close contacts of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases or who are symptomatic Erie County residents.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/erie-county-department-of-health-announces-changes-in-covid-19-test-criteria-coronavirus/71-12aa0eca-9a9c-4596-8d34-a4404ebaa9bf

So how do you get a covid test if they're only giving them to those with symptoms and those in close contact with covid positives? This is obviously going to increase the rate of infection ten fold because you're only testing those with symptoms...

I had to pay for mine yesterday because of this. 

[OSUmetstud]

8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

What’s everyone thinking is causing the sudden spike?  I know elsewhere in the country some places are very lax on masks and other protocols, but I think we’re overall pretty good in NY following the guidelines.  We were good up through September and into October, what changed?  Are schools causing it?  Bars/Restaurants with outdoor dining not as much of an option now?  Indoor parties now with people not in your inner circle? Virus mutation with the season changing?  

I think the data suggest small family gatherings are driving a lot of infection. Schools themselves don't appear to be a major driver. Im sure there's some seasonality. Less people are outside in October/November and respiratory viruses tended to spread better in cooler/lower humidity environments. The infection controls that worked in August may be less effective now. 

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think the data suggest small family gatherings are driving a lot of infection. Schools themselves don't appear to be a major driver. Im sure there's some seasonality. Less people are outside in October/November and respiratory viruses tended to spread better in cooler/lower humidity environments. The infection controls that worked in August may be less effective now. 

Ontario and Canada in general is falling apart with handling it properly. Ontario is having record day after record day. You guys out in maritimes/Atlantic Canada are doing well but everyone west of Quebec is failing. 

[OSUmetstud]

9 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ontario and Canada in general is falling apart with handling it properly. Ontario is having record day after record day. You guys out in maritimes/Atlantic Canada are doing well but everyone west of Quebec is failing. 

Its because we have the travel restrictions. It works better than anything else. 

[wolfie09]

Obviously we haven't been doing so bad here but last time I checked Lewis county only had like 60 cases..(few weeks back)

We probably have a better chance of"mad cow disease" lol

[mississaugasnow]

24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its because we have the travel restrictions. It works better than anything else. 

Hows everyday life out in St.Johns? Here in the GTA we keep trying to open more and more even though were seeing nearly 1400 cases a day now. Gyms, restaurants and stuff are open everywhere aside from Toronto itself. 

[wolfie09]

The new guidance cites a number of studies showing that masks reduce the risk of transmitting or catching the virus by more than 70% in various instances. One study revealed mutual mask-use helped prevent two infected hair stylists from transmitting the virus to 67 clients who were later interviewed. Another followed infected people who spent more than 10 hours on flights without infecting other passengers when masks were used.

 

In several scenarios, when officials told people to wear masks, infections and deaths fell significantly, the CDC pointed out.

 

 

 

"Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation," the CDC said

 

[wolfie09]

The agency cited an economic analysis that found a 15% increase in universal masking could prevent losses of up to $1 trillion.

[wolfie09]

Some cloth masks are nearly as good as surgical masks at blocking droplets, the CDC said. Polypropylene may generate a static charge that captures particles, the CDC said, while silk might repel moist droplets and be more comfortable.

 

"It's a two-way street," Dr. Anthony Fauci, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director, said Tuesday on MSNBC. "You protect others, their mask protects you, and your mask also protects you."

[wolfie09]

A new antibody test might be more effective at detecting previous COVID-19 infections.

This test looks at T-cells, which scientists say have a memory of past infections.

Researchers tested 70 people who had previously confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Theoretically, all 70 of them should have had positive results on antibody tests.

But previous antibody testing returned negative results in 16 of those people, while the T-cell test missed only two cases.

Other tests had some similar results.

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Hows everyday life out in St.Johns? Here in the GTA we keep trying to open more and more even though were seeing nearly 1400 cases a day now. Gyms, restaurants and stuff are open everywhere aside from Toronto itself. 

Quite normal aside from most working from home. I work in the office because I like my computer setup there and I live in a small apartment. Newfoundlanders are no different than anyone else in terms of following guidance imo. The travel restrictions from outside the Atlantic Provinces are quite significant. We been having zero to several cases a week now that are travel related, mostly returning residents or traveling workers. We haven't community spread (from an unknown source) since May. 

Public Spaces and Gatherings:

• Distanced gatherings run by a recognized business or organization are expanded to 100 people as long as physical distancing can be maintained, with restrictions. Wakes remain prohibited; however, visitations can occur with restrictions.
• Distanced gatherings that are not run by a recognized business or organization (like a family event in the backyard) are permitted for up to 50 people as long as physical distancing can be maintained, with restrictions.
• Places of worship are permitted to resume operations with restrictions.

Recreational Activities:

• Gyms and fitness facilities are permitted to open, with restrictions.
• Arenas can open, with restrictions.
• Indoor pools can open, however some restrictions apply.
• Overnight camping is permitted in all forms, including tenting.
• Playground equipment can be used.

Health care services:

• Regional health authorities will continue to allow some health care services to resume.
• Further expansion of visitation in health care to be determined.

Businesses and Services:

• Bars and lounges are permitted to open with reduced occupancy.
• Indoor entertainment facilities can reopen with reduced occupancy (e.g. bingo halls, cinemas).
• Performance spaces can reopen with reduced occupancy.

https://www.gov.nl.ca/covid-19/alert-system/alert-level-2/

[TugHillMatt]

I'm required to wear a mask and/or shield for work...normally I wear my shield outside at recess. The one day this week, I chose to wore my mask. I was playing tag with the kiddos and holy cow, I could not breathe. I had to stand way far back from anybody and take the mask off for a moment just to get fresh air. The masks certainly do block molecules (at least some) from traveling through! I think I'll continue primarily using the shield...although on the colder days we have gone out, the second I step outside it becomes a fogged up mess. I need some windshield wipers attached to it.

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

Georgia’s secretary of state announces a ‘full, by-hand’ recount of presidential election votes as Biden leads

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/presidential-election-georgia-announces-a-recount-as-biden-leads.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR2x17MLEJQnTk3nli2yaGjJFT9ygqcIM3CwthRCxsqNiiU_LO6QV-xHzzE&fbclid=IwAR0mhgEBosYDjkt5Lv1GQ6R54tYbUNLgL3u70kqKbnJiAZcBhEbTQkEBIRY&fbclid=IwAR1YPa4viQq_lu5yPO7FgEInx8jYhMlHaHI79hFA9gJcZc7shQfO8JJdBBo

 

[wolfie09]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Russia says its coronavirus vaccine is 92% effective, as battle to beat Western drugmakers heats up

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/coronavirus-vaccine-russia-says-its-vaccine-is-92percent-effective.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR3rTxN4-rWUT1WxqJONCqWqcMfOg7nL1QwmZuFK0Ov9ILOHkYLEM2plFjs

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like Nov 20th is the deadline for "official" election results across all 50 states?

[BuffaloWeather]

Trump has longstanding history of calling elections 'rigged' if he doesn’t like the results

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-longstanding-history-calling-elections-rigged-doesnt-results/story?id=74126926&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed

[BuffaloWeather]

As of Wednesday morning, Biden's tally of 77,271,279 votes has stretched his popular vote lead to 5,088,900 over Trump, who has so far recorded 72,182,379 votes, according to the Cook Political Report.

My 10 million call will be off, but looks like 6-7 million will be final difference.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

But I thought the virus didn’t take holidays off Mark?  
 

 

[wolfie09]

Biden's popular vote win is even bigger. Once all the votes are counted (and there are plenty outstanding), Biden's probably going to win somewhere between 51% and 52% of the popular vote. The only challenger to score a higher percentage over the last century was Roosevelt in 1932.

[wolfie09]

It's funny how all those votes in NC and Arizona that are coming after election day are legal but not in PA, GA, Wi, MI etc lol