Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[Buckeyes_Suck]

I still think Trump wins by a hair in the electoral and Biden runs away with the popular vote.

[wolfie09]

Democratic"party" coming out early in PA, I guess this was to be expected..Will the Republicans be able to reverse this on election day?

[wolfie09]

Out pacing the Republican party even at the polls in NC.. Granted many"undecided"

[BuffaloWeather]

With Barrett now on the Supreme court they're going after mail in ballots hard the next week in Pennsylvania. Going to be an interesting next few days. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I've had many "liberal" friends move to Texas the last few years. Dallas, Austin, Houston are transitioning into young towns. I see Texas as the next state to primarily vote blue. It will take some time, but in the next 10-20 years I see a gradual transition. 

[wolfie09]

Florida is as expected..More Republican party at the polls, more mail-in for the democratic party..

[wolfie09]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

With Barrett now on the Supreme court they're going after mail in ballots hard the next week in Pennsylvania. Going to be an interesting next few days. 

Yup, that's exactly why she was rushed into office lol Trump is trying his hardest to eliminate democratic votes, that's for sure..I bet he has tried to sue every state lol

[wolfie09]

This is from the"elections project"

Until this point, registered Democrats have dominated the early voting period on the strength of their higher mail ballots request rate and return rate advantages. Both of these patterns are different from prior elections where registered Republicans tended to request more mail ballots and return them at a higher rate. 

Funny considering how mail-in votes are a recipe for fraud lol

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

I still think Trump wins by a hair in the electoral and Biden runs away with the popular vote.

Agree, Trump takes Florida and PA but loses popular vote by nearly 10 million votes this time around.  

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Agree, Trump takes Florida and PA but loses popular vote by nearly 10 million votes this time around.  

Doesn't he need Wisconsin and Michigan to win electoral even with FL and PA? 

[wolfie09]

He still would of had 280 without those states in 2016..NC is another important state..

[CIK62]

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500).        I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails.       Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range.    This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we  dreamed it. 

Before you even heard the term   CoronaVirus    the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.'         The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X  times that of the economy.         The average value here is   0.85X,   in other words, smaller than the whole economy.

A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

[wolfie09]

For trump to win he needs to win at least one of Michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania..All 3 usually lean blue and he won them each by less than 1%..Joe biden"likeability" is about 10% higher than that of hilary, according to some polls I have seen..I may be in the minority but I think Biden wins PA just like obama did in 2008 and 2012..

You have some more"toss up" states this year such as florida, arizona and north Carolina..

[DeltaT13]

43 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500).        I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails.       Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range.    This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we  dreamed it. 

Before you even heard the term   CoronaVirus    the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.'         The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X  times that of the economy.         The average value here is   0.85X,   in other words, smaller than the whole economy.

A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

There is certainly a lot of pain coming down the tracks but nowhere near the fear mongering scenario you just typed out.  The whole world is in this mess together.  If this was somehow just a US problem I might agree with you, but the US is literally too big to fail at this point.  If we go down, everyone goes down, and that just isnt happening....

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500).        I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails.       Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range.    This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we  dreamed it. 

Before you even heard the term   CoronaVirus    the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.'         The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X  times that of the economy.         The average value here is   0.85X,   in other words, smaller than the whole economy.

A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

That's a pretty shortsighted analysis on several fronts...

The stock market may have been overvalued but nowhere near 2 times. Maybe 10% at best, a correction was due which is normal.

"A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic." Are you writing sci fi thriller? By no means will the 99.65% of us that survive be taking a long walk off a short pier, at least not in the US or any other developed country. 

[vortmax]

I just assumed that was spam and reported the post.

[wolfie09]

Results may not be known until several days after the election..As CNN reported some counties in PA won't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close or even the next morning..

 

WASHINGTON — In a pair of decisions welcomed by Democrats, the Supreme Court on Wednesday let election officials in two key battleground states, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, accept absentee ballots for several days after Election Day.

In the Pennsylvania case, the court refused a plea from Republicans in the state that it decide before Election Day whether election officials can continue receiving absentee ballots for three days after Nov. 3.

In the North Carolina case, the court let stand lower court rulings that allowed the state’s board of elections to extend the deadline to nine days after Election Day, up from the three days called for by the state legislature.

The court’s brief orders in the two cases were unsigned. The Pennsylvania order appeared to be unanimous, while the North Carolina one was issued over three noted dissents.

[BuffaloWeather]

9 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Results may not be known until several days after the election..As CNN reported some counties in PA won't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close or even the next morning..

 

WASHINGTON — In a pair of decisions welcomed by Democrats, the Supreme Court on Wednesday let election officials in two key battleground states, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, accept absentee ballots for several days after Election Day.

In the Pennsylvania case, the court refused a plea from Republicans in the state that it decide before Election Day whether election officials can continue receiving absentee ballots for three days after Nov. 3.

In the North Carolina case, the court let stand lower court rulings that allowed the state’s board of elections to extend the deadline to nine days after Election Day, up from the three days called for by the state legislature.

The court’s brief orders in the two cases were unsigned. The Pennsylvania order appeared to be unanimous, while the North Carolina one was issued over three noted dissents.

Looks like they're not overturning previous decision even with Barrett in place. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-mail-in-deadline-barrett/index.html

[BuffaloWeather]

I voted yesterday. Line took 30 minutes to get through, extremely busy polls. I've never seen them like they were yesterday. Voting numbers are going to be setting records. 

[CNY_WX]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like they're not overturning previous decision even with Barrett in place. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-mail-in-deadline-barrett/index.html

Barrett recused herself in the Pennsylvania case.

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/justice-barrett-recuses-herself-from-pennsylvania-voting-case-94873157561

To me the decisions in these cases would be good news for Democrats.  If the courts are allowing states to accept ballots after Tuesday then they should allow counting after 11/3.  There’s been talk that if Trump is winning on Tuesday night he might declare victory and throw it to the courts to disallow any mail in ballots that haven’t been counted.  This has to be a defeat for him.

[wolfie09]

The Republicans may need just as much time lol

At least going by the"return rate" which is much greater for the democratic party..

Obviously some people will have a change of heart and vote at the polls..

[DeltaT13]

Thought this was an interesting article.  Be smart as we migrate indoors for the long winter.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

[BuffaloWeather]

21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Thought this was an interesting article.  Be smart as we migrate indoors for the long winter.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

I'm keeping my windows open all winter. 

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Thought this was an interesting article.  Be smart as we migrate indoors for the long winter.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Interesting, but I don't think people consider frequent touch spots like door handles, credit cards, menus, bathroom faucets, etc. Almost everyone in a house, building, restaurant, touch the door handle to get it. What about credit cards? Just went to Dunkin this morning and the server, with gloves on, is handed credit cards ALL day. One after another. How are the gloves stopping transmission from one credit card to the other?

Just one infected person passed the virus on to 53 people in the space of two-and-a-half hours. Some of those infected were 14 meters away, so only aerosols would explain the transmission.   <---- what about frequent-touch spots?

[DeltaT13]

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Interesting, but I don't think people consider frequent touch spots like door handles, books, menus, bathroom faucets, etc.

Just one infected person passed the virus on to 53 people in the space of two-and-a-half hours. Some of those infected were 14 meters away, so only aerosols would explain the transmission.   <---- what about frequent-touch spots?

From the article:

At present, health authorities recognize three vehicles of coronavirus transmission: the small droplets from speaking or coughing, which can end up in the eyes, mouth or nose of people standing nearby; contaminated surfaces (fomites), although the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that this is the least likely way to catch the virus, a conclusion backed by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (ECDC) observation that not a single case of fomite-caused Covid-19 has been observed; then finally, there is transmission by aerosols – the inhalation of invisible infectious particles exhaled by an infected person that, once leaving the mouth, behave in a similar way to smoke. Without ventilation, aerosols remain suspended in the air and become increasingly dense as time passes.

[vortmax]

14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

From the article:

At present, health authorities recognize three vehicles of coronavirus transmission: the small droplets from speaking or coughing, which can end up in the eyes, mouth or nose of people standing nearby; contaminated surfaces (fomites), although the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that this is the least likely way to catch the virus, a conclusion backed by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (ECDC) observation that not a single case of fomite-caused Covid-19 has been observed; then finally, there is transmission by aerosols – the inhalation of invisible infectious particles exhaled by an infected person that, once leaving the mouth, behave in a similar way to smoke. Without ventilation, aerosols remain suspended in the air and become increasingly dense as time passes.

Do you really believe not a single case of C19 has been spread by contaminated surfaces? That just doesn't make any logical sense unless the virus dies on surfaces in minutes - which as been proven false. If that's the case, why wear gloves, clean surfaces, wash hands, or anything else if it's a non-issue ? Weird.

Surfaces are not the primary transmission track, but they aren't zero either - and I think underestimated.

[DeltaT13]

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Do you really believe not a single case of C19 in Europe has been spread by contaminated surfaces? That just doesn't make any logical sense unless the virus dies on surfaces in minutes. If that's the case, why wear gloves, clean surfaces, wash hands, or anything else if it's a non-issue in Europe? Weird.

Not completely, but I think it means that this mode of transmission accounts for a miniscule amount of spread.  I have kind of agreed with this since the beginning. Surfaces are not virus friendly, and each touch inherently has less of the virus on it as some is left behind, some is destroyed, and some is transferred to a new surface.  I try my best to not touch my eyes and mouth with my hands these days which I'm sure also helps in the rare circumstance that I have enough on my hands to cause an issue.  Additionally, I would expect it takes more virus to get infected via your eyes or mouth than via inhalation.  

[vortmax]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

Not completely, but I think it means that this mode of transmission accounts for a miniscule amount of spread.  I have kind of agreed with this since the beginning. Surfaces are not virus friendly, and each touch inherently has less of the virus on it as some is left behind, some is destroyed, and some is transferred to a new surface.  I try my best to not touch my eyes and mouth with my hands these days which I'm sure also helps in the rare circumstance that I have enough on my hands to cause an issue.  Additionally, I would expect it takes more virus to get infected via your eyes or mouth than via inhalation.  

I just think high-touch surfaces are underestimated and ill-considered - especially in light of that bolded statement.

[DeltaT13]

Just now, vortmax said:

I just think high-touch surfaces are underestimated and ill-considered. 

I disagree.  Hand sanitizer is around every turn.  I use it a dozen times a day (just out of habit now).  There are probably 50 hand sanitization stations in my work place.  It's at the entrance to every store.  Peoples hands are probably the cleanest they've ever been.  All I see everywhere are people cleaning their hands.    If anything I feel like people are completely underestimating normal talking, that's what is spreading this.  Not coughing, not sneezing, just regular old conversation.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Treatment at the beginning of the pandemic was terrible, deaths are declining while cases increase. The virus is not nearly as deadly as once thought. Regeneron helps reduce viral load in patients. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-by-the-numbers-mortality-rates-in-u-s-decrease-despite-uptick-in-cases/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/regeneron-says-its-covid-19-antibody-treatment-cut-medical-visits-n1245197

The most recent data (from the week ending October 10) showed excess deaths only 0 and 2.9 percent higher than historic data.

A look at the data shows that excess deaths peaked the week ending April 11, with 35.6% to 40.6% more deaths than usual, then began a downward trajectory through June 20, when the incidence of COVID-19 rose in Sunbelt states after declining in the North and Northeast.