brentrich Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 United States cases are rising, do you think we will have second lockdown again in NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 Cases are going up in every state and its only Oct 15th. Going to be a long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 13 hours ago, brentrich said: United States cases are rising, do you think we will have second lockdown again in NY? Well WHO says stop the lockdowns. I doubt Cuomo will heed their advice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Well WHO says stop the lockdowns. I doubt Cuomo will heed their advice... They finally realize herd immunity is the only solution after all these vaccines taking steps back. Going to be another 1-2 years before a successful vaccine gets through to us and by that time it won't matter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 Doesn't sound like that to me lol The head of the World Health Organization said Monday that allowing the novel coronavirus to spread in an attempt to reach herd immunity was “simply unethical.” The remark was a sharp rebuke of the approach amid mounting new infections around the world. Recent days have seen the most rapid rise in cases since the pandemic began in March. “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a Monday media briefing. “It is scientifically and ethically problematic.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 15, 2020 Author Share Posted October 15, 2020 A vaccine for COVID-19 could be widely available as soon as this April, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci — a timeline that runs slightly longer than President Donald Trump’s previous predictions. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, made the assertion during an interview with CBS News Wednesday, saying a vaccine “will likely be [available] within the first quarter of 2021, by let’s say April of 2021.” Trump has for months been targeting the release of a vaccine by Nov. 3 — election day for the US — even going so far as to say that one could be released within the next few weeks. “We could even have it during the month of October,” he said during a press conference last month. “The vaccine will be very safe and very effective and it will be delivered very soon. You could have a very big surprise coming up.” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was also slightly more conservative with his estimates, telling a Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference last week, “We project having enough for every American who wants a vaccine by March to April 2021.” In the interview, Fauci expressed caution at expecting a vaccine too soon, saying, “that would be predicated on the fact that all of the vaccines that are in clinical trials have been proven to be safe and effective.” Johnson and Johnson paused their vaccine study on Sunday after a participant came down with an “unexplained illness.” Eli Lilly also paused an antibody treatment trial Tuesday, citing a “potential safety concern.” Meanwhile, almost 40,000 participants have signed up for studies that would involve getting intentionally exposed to COVID-19 after receiving an experimental vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Doesn't sound like that to me lol The head of the World Health Organization said Monday that allowing the novel coronavirus to spread in an attempt to reach herd immunity was “simply unethical.” The remark was a sharp rebuke of the approach amid mounting new infections around the world. Recent days have seen the most rapid rise in cases since the pandemic began in March. “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a Monday media briefing. “It is scientifically and ethically problematic.” I don’t understand why they don’t come to the realization that it is the best of course of action at this point. They missed the window for containment and there are no guarantees of a viable vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 15, 2020 Share Posted October 15, 2020 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Meanwhile, almost 40,000 participants have signed up for studies that would involve getting intentionally exposed to COVID-19 after receiving an experimental vaccine. Someone once called me cray for this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I would agree at this point it’s like the old chicken pox days... Get it and get it over with. Yes there is a portion of the population that is high risk and will develop severe complications but the vast majority of the population will experience nothing more than a common cold. Those at highest risk should take extra precautions and avoid exposure situations. The rest should get back to a new normal way of life. Still mask up and social distance... but we need to keep opening more up. The purpose was to flatten the curve, not make it zero. Sure the infection rates are slowly climbing across the us and worldwide but I’m not hearing about overwhelmed hospitals. I feel they are much more prepared now to diagnose and more effectively treat higher risk patients that have a chance to pull through. We’re not seeing massive spread through business, workplaces, shopping centers, grade schools, restaurants, etc... we are seeing rapid spread through assisted living facilities, college campuses, and sports teams. Again looking at the persons physical well-being I would be interested to compare the numbers. Take the two nursing homes that are having an outbreak and see what percent needed hospital care or worse who died. Then compare it to the percent of college kids or athletes... I mean look at the NFL players getting it and 10 days later they are back on the field playing at peak performance. How? Look at Trump. Would be classified a higher risk individual. He gets it, actually falls pretty ill then gets a drug cocktail and jacked up on steroids and 48 hours later he’s out of the hospital and on a bender. Maybe the focus needs to be less on the vaccine that doesn’t exist yet and more on current treatments that are yielding positive outcomes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 I cannot believe Cuomo released a book on how to deal with a pandemic....He's profiting from death and misery. Dude is a total joke and that is someone that leans pretty far left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I cannot believe Cuomo released a book on how to deal with a pandemic....He's profiting from death and misery. Dude is a total joke and that is someone that leans pretty far left. It's like making a movie about a deadly hostage situation while it's still happening. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 Nearing 1/5 of the 2016 election, already.. Obviously we have no idea how many will show up at the polls on November 3rd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 On 10/15/2020 at 12:37 PM, BuffaloWeather said: They finally realize herd immunity is the only solution after all these vaccines taking steps back. Going to be another 1-2 years before a successful vaccine gets through to us and by that time it won't matter. Dude this is a bad a take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: Dude this is a bad a take. He’s not wrong. There’s a reason that a vaccine for the common cold doesn’t exist. It certainly hasn’t been for a lack of effort. The common cold is also caused by coronavirus. Even if a vaccine is created look at the Flu vaccine. Shortages every year. A good year is 60% effective. The last vaccine rushed to market during a pandemic caused brain damage. So do we live with the latest CDC estimate of 0.26%(same as a bad flu season) mortality rate and live our lives or do we stay in this circus that has gone from flattening the curve to complete and utter bullshit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said: He’s not wrong. There’s a reason that a vaccine for the common cold doesn’t exist. It certainly hasn’t been for a lack of effort. The common cold is also caused by coronavirus. Even if a vaccine is created look at the Flu vaccine. Shortages every year. A good year is 60% effective. The last vaccine rushed to market during a pandemic caused brain damage. So do we live with the latest CDC estimate of 0.26%(same as a bad flu season) mortality rate and live our lives or do we stay in this circus that has gone from flattening the curve to complete and utter bullshit? Can you please provide your data that support a 0.26% mortality rate? Right now there have been roughly 216,000 deaths out of 8 million cases. That is a mortality rate of 2.7%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Can you please provide your data that support a 0.26% mortality rate? Right now there have been roughly 216,000 deaths out of 8 million cases. That is a mortality rate of 2.7%. 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 **This doesn't include people 80+ The CFR is the thing you quoted there. The Infected Fatality Rate is derived from serology data since not every person infected gets a test. If you adjust for population percentage in those age bands, you get somewhere around 0.8 percent in the population as a whole. The 0.26% was from an early estimate in the pandemic planning scenarios on the CDC site that has since been updated twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 What's the purpose of herd immunity? Lol Just so you don't have to wear a mask lol It's not like the country is still shut down..If people wanted to get sick they would, government is not gonna make people do it..Zero percent chance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Can you please provide your data that support a 0.26% mortality rate? Right now there have been roughly 216,000 deaths out of 8 million cases. That is a mortality rate of 2.7%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html Fatality ratio, first table. there’s also an article on USA today that you can find using DuckDuckGo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 **This doesn't include people 80+ The CFR is the thing you quoted there. The Infected Fatality Rate is derived from serology data since not every person infected gets a test. If you adjust for population percentage in those age bands, you get somewhere around 0.8 percent in the population as a whole. The 0.26% was from an early estimate in the pandemic planning scenarios on the CDC site that has since been updated twice. Are you really arguing that you can get to .8% after looking at those numbers? No way in hell, unless the 70+ Crowd makes up half our population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html Fatality ratio, first table. there’s also an article on USA today that you can find using DuckDuckGo Current Best Estimate, it's the same data I just posted. If you adjust for population, you get somewhere near 0.8 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 While it rare you can get the coronavirus twice. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said this week health officials are beginning to see "a number of cases" reported as reinfections It's also not"lifetime" immunity.. Researchers from the University of Arizona found antibodies that protect against infection can last for at least five to seven months after a Covid-19 infection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: While it rare you can get the coronavirus twice. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said this week health officials are beginning to see "a number of cases" reported as reinfections It's also not"lifetime" immunity.. Researchers from the University of Arizona found antibodies that protect against infection can last for at least five to seven months after a Covid-19 infection. I think you're looking at the incorrectly. We would only have direct evidence of the antibodies for that long because we've only been in the pandemic for that long. It's not evidence that there's no protection after that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2020 Author Share Posted October 17, 2020 Yup, more research is needed.. Just like people that become more ill have more antibodies according to a small study.. People who were sicker had a stronger immune response, Bhattacharya said. “The people sampled from the ICU had higher levels of antibodies than people who had milder disease.” He doesn’t yet know what that will mean for long-term immunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Luke_Mages said: He’s not wrong. There’s a reason that a vaccine for the common cold doesn’t exist. It certainly hasn’t been for a lack of effort. The common cold is also caused by coronavirus. Even if a vaccine is created look at the Flu vaccine. Shortages every year. A good year is 60% effective. The last vaccine rushed to market during a pandemic caused brain damage. So do we live with the latest CDC estimate of 0.26%(same as a bad flu season) mortality rate and live our lives or do we stay in this circus that has gone from flattening the curve to complete and utter bullshit? I understand the herd immunity route, however what I don't like is that those pushing it (not saying you) are the from the work from home class. If they all agreed and said okay Ill go back to my office and sit 3 feet away from my coworkers ect.. Instead they want restrictions on bars, sporting events, outside of work restrictions lifted but generally still say they don't need to go back into office. I work construction and feel relatively safe but if we went down this route you'd bet id want my boss out there working with us putting "skin in the game" and not just sending blue prints and work orders from the comfort of his house because he can work remote and we can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 71K new cases yesterday, yikes. New record in the US and it's Only October 17th. Winter hasn't even started, oh boy we are in for rough winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 100k cases a day soon in few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 So let’s use the 0.8% mortality rate. The population of the US is around 330,000,000. To achieve herd immunity a minimum of 60% (probably more like 70%) of the population needs to be infected. That’s around 200 million people. If 0.8% of those die that’s 1.6 million deaths. Insanity! You really think that’s acceptable? Edit:. This is really directed at Luke_Mages who thinks herd immunity is the answer. 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Current Best Estimate, it's the same data I just posted. If you adjust for population, you get somewhere near 0.8 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 0.09 over 80+ is a bit of an inference. But it seems reasonable based on the same study that the CDC bases it's numbers on. The CDC data says 70+ but if you read the print under the table, it doesn't include over 80 because the CDC and the study assumes that the 80+ CFR is the same as the IFR (there aren't missed cases). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/coronavirus-first-case-of-covid-19-reinfection-confirmed-in-the-us.html?__source=facebook|main&fbclid=IwAR1J5Q-8qnypio31mem4oitloBzKpOePPqErzcu9BZ04J1AWua2vxJ_7V3U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 This a nice chart of relative risk, I posted it in the OV thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 5 hours ago, CNY_WX said: So let’s use the 0.8% mortality rate. The population of the US is around 330,000,000. To achieve herd immunity a minimum of 60% (probably more like 70%) of the population needs to be infected. That’s around 200 million people. If 0.8% of those die that’s 1.6 million deaths. Insanity! You really think that’s acceptable? Edit:. This is really directed at Luke_Mages who thinks herd immunity is the answer. I’ll do the math Monday on the actual percentage, but why not use the .26% quoted by USA Today? That’s 400k people, we’re more than halfway there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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