Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

We don’t know if he’s a good GM. It’s his first time as a GM. I like the moves he’s made with Staal and Hall but it’s still far too early to say if they’re turning it all around. I like coach Kruger a lot and the guys seem to like to play for him so that’s a good start but I think if they under achieve again this season things are going to start to unravel pretty quickly as I could see Eichel wanting out and Hall not resigning. Staal is also only a 1 year contact so he could be gone after this year as well especially given his age. They need a goalie badly but it seems that ship has sailed already for the free agent market. At this point I would use more Ullmark then Hutton but I think that’s going to be the Achilles heel on the team this year. Also need to get Dahlin playing more minutes and with more confidence because his talent is beginning to go to waste if they continue to play Risto with more minutes per game then him. 

All things agreed. Yes Adams is a first time GM but sometimes you can get a feel about someone just by their mannerisms alone. Guy was the consummate consistent teammate in Carolina and appears to know what he wants. No that alone does not mean he will be successful but I feel he knows what that looks like as he was a part of an organization that was strong on drafting and developing those picks and signing key under the radar FA. I’m not in the pool all the way but I’m about to jump in

[BuffaloWeather]

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Turnout in the 2020 presidential contest is on course to smash records.

More than 9.3 million Americans had already cast ballots as of Saturday afternoon, through mail ballots or at in-person voting sites, according to the U.S. Elections Project’s nonpartisan tally of early voting. By Oct. 9, 2016, state election officials across the nation reported only 429,337 people had voted early.

I was told nearly 2/3rds are registered democrats. Would be shocked if Trump wins this upcoming election.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

All things agreed. Yes Adams is a first time GM but sometimes you can get a feel about someone just by their mannerisms alone. Guy was the consummate consistent teammate in Carolina and appears to know what he wants. No that alone does not mean he will be successful but I feel he knows what that looks like as he was a part of an organization that was strong on drafting and developing those picks and signing key under the radar FA. I’m not in the pool all the way but I’m about to jump in

Exciting news for sure but we’ve seen these pickups before and they never pay off with our current team culture.  This team has had enough pieces to put together a good run but it’s been a decade since they have had any kind of team chemistry to keep stringing together winning streaks.  They have no back bone and let teams come in and push them around and wonder why they can’t win.  The dumpster might now be on fire just yet, but it’s filled with gas and the matches aren’t far away.  Don’t get me wrong I want to see the Sabres excel this year but they need a full blown culture change through the organization to get it done.  And give me crap if you want... Eichel is great player but I don’t see him being the leader the team actually needs.  

[lakeeffectkid383]

24 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Exciting news for sure but we’ve seen these pickups before and they never pay off with our current team culture.  This team has had enough pieces to put together a good run but it’s been a decade since they have had any kind of team chemistry to keep stringing together winning streaks.  They have no back bone and let teams come in and push them around and wonder why they can’t win.  The dumpster might now be on fire just yet, but it’s filled with gas and the matches aren’t far away.  Don’t get me wrong I want to see the Sabres excel this year but they need a full blown culture change through the organization to get it done.  And give me crap if you want... Eichel is great player but I don’t see him being the leader the team actually needs.  

Yep this organization has become okay with losing over the years and while you can tell Eichel hates losing when he throws his stick or his helmet in the locker room after a game you don’t see him coming forward as a leader and saying heres what we’re gonna do about it to his teammates. Josh Allen on the other hand is not only a great player but a great leader and makes everyone want to play their hardest 100% of the time on the field and that’s worth almost as much as the on the field talent sometimes.

[Thinksnow18]

30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Exciting news for sure but we’ve seen these pickups before and they never pay off with our current team culture.  This team has had enough pieces to put together a good run but it’s been a decade since they have had any kind of team chemistry to keep stringing together winning streaks.  They have no back bone and let teams come in and push them around and wonder why they can’t win.  The dumpster might now be on fire just yet, but it’s filled with gas and the matches aren’t far away.  Don’t get me wrong I want to see the Sabres excel this year but they need a full blown culture change through the organization to get it done.  And give me crap if you want... Eichel is great player but I don’t see him being the leader the team actually needs.  

I’m not going to bash you at all. I agree with you about Eichel and I believe having Staal here is more than just experience in the locker room, it’s for jack as well. I look back at when they had briere and drury, 2 leaders in 2 different ways, one on the score sheet and one in his attitude, Jack has the score sheet buttoned up but the attitude? Eh. I think having another captain (not a letter) will be very beneficial to jack and I think you’ll see this team grow quickly. And no they have not had this much talent since 05-06 not even close.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

21 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m kinda shocked at the comments here. This team is clearly moving in a much different direction and it’s not taking Kevyn Adams very long to put his stamp on this team. he brought in a former Stanley cup champ, captain and great mentor with some hockey left in him, arguably the best FA on the market with a prove it deal and is imo a good goalie away from the playoffs consistently. I’m starting to see parallels from the bills regime and this one. Good gm good coach and plenty of young stars. 

Completely agree. I wondered after the paycuts if botcherill was purposely pushed out. It would have been a clever way of doing it without backtracking on their stance in support of botcherill. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

18 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was told nearly 2/3rds are registered democrats. Would be shocked if Trump wins this upcoming election.

The 2/3 number makes sense. Coronavirus has been extremely politicized, with Democrats embracing the idea of Mail in voting to help stop the spread of coronavirus. Meanwhile staunch republicans will vote in person in fear of the postal service ghosting their ballots. 

[Thinksnow18]

9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

The 2/3 number makes sense. Coronavirus has been extremely politicized, with Democrats embracing the idea of Mail in voting to help stop the spread of coronavirus. Meanwhile staunch republicans will vote in person in fear of the postal service ghosting their ballots. 

Could be another voter win for the dems and a presidential win for the GOP

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Could be another voter win for the dems and a presidential win for the GOP

Yep, if Trump wins I’m sure that’ll be the case. 

Currently I’m vacationing on the coast of Maine and it’s crazy the number and size of signs I see for both sides. People have 4x8 billboards in the front yards. I guess that’s what happens when your vote matters. 

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yep, if Trump wins I’m sure that’ll be the case. 

Currently I’m vacationing on the coast of Maine and it’s crazy the number and size of signs I see for both sides. People have 4x8 billboards in the front yards. I guess that’s what happens when your vote matters. 

It would honestly be interesting to be in a true swing state. The rally’s and debating must be incredible.

[BuffaloWeather]

Why does Trump oppose the green new deal and making advancements to reduce our carbon footprint? We could create tens of thousands of jobs in renewable energy. Having traveled to Costa Rica a few years back that country is 100% run on geothermal energy. Why is a 3rd world country able to do something we cannot? (Healthcare too) I wouldn't be able to vote for him simply based on his refusal to believe in climate change. 

[BuffaloWeather]

In regards to the election. I think Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. This basically solidifies his lost. 

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In regards to the election. I think Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. This basically solidifies his lost. 

It’s definitely a toss up. I think it’ll come down to the same states during the last election. 

[BuffaloWeather]

What's fascinating to me is the stock market. The polls have Biden up a consensus 8-12 pts over Trump and the stocks still keep going up with the election 3 weeks away. The market has already factored in a Biden win and still goes up. The reasoning that the stock market will drop if Trump loses is simply untrue. 

[Thinksnow18]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What's fascinating to me is the stock market. The polls have Biden up a consensus 8-12 pts over Trump and the stocks still keep going up with the election 3 weeks away. The market has already factored in a Biden win and still goes up. The reasoning that the stock market will drop if Trump loses is simply untrue. 

For now. I still think there are other factors that will determine ultimately what direction the market takes. I do feel long term under a Biden regime the market will struggle based on his overall policy. He will try and tax the 1% to death and I’m not sold that either he or Harris is strong on foreign policy. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Why does Trump oppose the green new deal and making advancements to reduce our carbon footprint? We could create tens of thousands of jobs in renewable energy. Having traveled to Costa Rica a few years back that country is 100% run on geothermal energy. Why is a 3rd world country able to do something we cannot? (Healthcare too) I wouldn't be able to vote for him simply based on his refusal to believe in climate change. 

I think scale is your first obstacle. Costa Rica is a country of 5M, with per capita energy usage of 1900 kWh per year...

the US is 330M with a per capita energy usage of 12000 kWh per year. 
 

we use 400 more times energy total and 6 times more energy on a per capita basis. 
 

my off the wall opinion on why you don’t see trillions of dollars spent on this is because there’s confidence among the highest ranks that fusion will be commercially viable in the next 50 years. 

[wolfie09]

23 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was told nearly 2/3rds are registered democrats. Would be shocked if Trump wins this upcoming election.

Link to keep track of early voting..

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[cleetussnow]

The stock market today seems to pricing in Biden winning easily.  What they like is the fact that election isn’t likely to be contested like bush/gore or something.  The market likes stability, predictability and orderliness.

In 2021 the market will start pricing in the new tax and new regulations which are promised.  If the senate flips in November, there  will be a cascade of new regulations, higher taxes, and new taxes for that matter.  The market will get repriced during this time.  

I could see the senate flipping back red in 2022 if the new taxes and regulation coincide with a recession perhaps, and the cascade will be stunted. This happened to Obama in 2010 when he lost the house and senate before he could get his climate bill passed.   He got Obamacare but the large regulatory expansion stopped there.  Clinton lost the house 2 years into his presidency because of hilarycare..  Biden will quickly raise tax rates, and then go straight to the climate regulations that Obama could not pass and get it done.  There is a pattern here.  They get the big regulations eventually.  The the other party gets a chance to rein in further regulatory expansion, but only temporarily.  

[BuffaloWeather]

18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The stock market today seems to pricing in Biden winning easily.  What they like is the fact that election isn’t likely to be contested like bush/gore or something.  The market likes stability, predictability and orderliness.

In 2021 the market will start pricing in the new tax and new regulations which are promised.  If the senate flips in November, there  will be a cascade of new regulations, higher taxes, and new taxes for that matter.  The market will get repriced during this time.  

I could see the senate flipping back red in 2022 if the new taxes and regulation coincide with a recession perhaps, and the cascade will be stunted. This happened to Obama in 2010 when he lost the house and senate before he could get his climate bill passed.   He got Obamacare but the large regulatory expansion stopped there.  Clinton lost the house 2 years into his presidency because of hilarycare..  Biden will quickly raise tax rates, and then go straight to the climate regulations that Obama could not pass and get it done.  There is a pattern here.  They get the big regulations eventually.  The the other party gets a chance to rein in further regulatory expansion, but only temporarily.  

Forget regulations. Tax the 1% like they deserve and keep low restrictions on business. The income disparity is becoming far too large. Go back mid century rates for the ultra wealthy. The 400k+ Biden plan makes lots of sense and even the rich agree they need to be taxed more. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Forget regulations. Tax the 1% like they deserve and keep low restrictions on business. The income disparity is becoming far too large. Go back mid century rates for the ultra wealthy. The 400k+ Biden plan makes lots of sense and even the rich agree they need to be taxed more. 

I don’t think the top individual marginal income rates matter as much to the economy or the average joe as corporate taxes.  So for me, whichever way the wind blows on that doesn’t change anything. Whatever.  I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. And if you did that, most of the money isn’t cash, it’s investments and shares etc. which would become worthless very fast:  there would be no market anymore since there would be no buyers.  A discussion for another day...

Corporate  tax rates affect the cost of goods, my job, pension benefits and retirement savings.  If corporate rates go up, everything I listed there goes the wrong way for me.  

I’m really just talking about how things are likely to evolve based on the past history.  Biden has 2 years to get the green new deal and I don’t see anything stopping it and it will be the biggest regulation in US history.  My guess is the markets and economy in general will be very disrupted by all of this.  Once done, the senate flips back red, and maybe the house.  That happened to Obama.  

One other thing the market will hate is if the senate is red and the White House blue.  Then there will be budget fights and the threat of government shutdowns will kill the markets.  Flip side is there will be no additional regulations or taxes to speak of while the blue White House and red senate condition exists.  I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t seem likely for the next 2 years anyway.  

 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’t think the top individual marginal income rates matter as much to the economy or the average joe as corporate taxes.  So for me, whichever way the wind blows on that doesn’t change anything. Whatever.  I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. And if you did that, most of the money isn’t cash, it’s investments and shares etc. which would become worthless very fast:  there would be no market anymore since there would be no buyers.  A discussion for another day...

Corporate  tax rates affect the cost of goods, my job, pension benefits and retirement savings.  If corporate rates go up, everything I listed there goes the wrong way for me.  

I’m really just talking about how things are likely to evolve based on the past history.  Biden has 2 years to get the green new deal and I don’t see anything stopping it and it will be the biggest regulation in US history.  My guess is the markets and economy in general will be very disrupted by all of this.  Once done, the senate flips back red, and maybe the house.  That happened to Obama.  

One other thing the market will hate is if the senate is red and the White House blue.  Then there will be budget fights and the threat of government shutdowns will kill the markets.  Flip side is there will be no additional regulations or taxes to speak of while the blue White House and red senate condition exists.  I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t seem likely for the next 2 years anyway.  

 

Would that be true if we go to 400k or only using the top 1%? Show me some numbers.

" I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. "

We're not talking about only taxing the 1%, if we keep the taxes the way they are now for lower income and raise the taxes for those making 400k it makes sense. There would be no tax disparity.

[BuffaloWeather]

Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory

[wolfie09]

Another 2 million votes in the last 24hrs... Already 10% of total votes in 2016..

At this rate half the register voters will vote before the November 3rd general election lol

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Another 2 million votes in the last 24hrs... Already 10% of total votes in 2016..

At this rate half the register voters will vote before the November 3rd general election lol

I plan to vote early too. 

The early voting period runs from Saturday, October 24, 2020 to Sunday, November 1, 2020

[wolfie09]

Nj is doing almost all mail in ballots, 5.9 million requested ballots out of 6.2 million registered voters..Over 1 million already submitted.. Nj is an easy state to call anyway lol Urban areas outweigh the suburbs..

[BuffaloWeather]

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Another 2 million votes in the last 24hrs... Already 10% of total votes in 2016..

At this rate half the register voters will vote before the November 3rd general election lol

I wonder if there is a reason that so many people are voting early this year? 

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest polls

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[BuffaloWeather]

Biden is up +9 in Michigan with 20 days left. Also +7-9 in Wisconsin. Florida is definitely at play as well, I see that state being a contested one. 

[wolfie09]

Still in negotiations for this house me and the old lady are trying to get lol

Looks like November and December I'll be rooting for WSW/SW winds lol Hopefully by the end of December I'm back in Oswego county rooting for those westerly events, Orwell NY to be exact..

[wolfie09]

Washington (CNN)The latest election controversy cropped up this week in California, where Republicans installed dozens of unauthorized ballot dropboxes that state officials say are illegal.

The dropbox debacle, triggered by California Republicans who appeared to violate state laws, immediately injected new chaos into the frenzied and unprecedented 2020 election process.

The coronavirus pandemic has led to historic interest in mail-in voting, but President Donald Trump and the GOP have spent months attacking the integrity of mail ballots and fighting in court against dropboxes. The California dispute is the latest flashpoint in this ongoing battle.

"Whether or not it is technically legal, it's extremely problematic for voters," said CNN election law analyst Rick Hasen, who is also a law professor at the University of California, Irvine. He said the unauthorized dropboxes were "not secure" and that the GOP was "asking for trouble."

 

What happened in California?

California is mailing ballots to all registered voters this year. Voters can mail back their ballots or return them at official dropboxes. There are anti-fraud safeguards built into the process to make sure ballots are filled out by the right voter, and that dropboxes are protected from tampering.

The California Republican Party installed dozens of unauthorized ballot dropboxes in at least four Southern California counties, where there are competitive House races this year. The party claims it did this as part of an above-board effort to legally collect and return people's ballots.

Election officials in affected counties expressed alarm about the "deceptive" boxes. California's governor, attorney general and secretary of state -- all Democrats -- condemned the dropboxes and sent cease-and-desist letters, telling the state GOP to remove the dropboxes by Thursday. As of late Tuesday, no response had been received, according to Attorney General Xavier Becerra's press office.

Why did Republicans do this?

Republicans claimed they merely wanted to use their makeshift dropboxes to collect people's ballots and return them to election officials. The dropboxes were spotted at churches and gun shops in more conservative-leaning areas, suggesting they were an effort to boost turnout among GOP voters where there are competitive House races.

"Republicans are in a tough spot," Hasen said. "On one hand, you have the President, who is criticizing vote-by-mail and says it is prone to fraud. On the other hand, Republicans in California has long relied on a strong vote-by-mail operation to get out the Republican vote."

But some Democrats claimed Republicans were trying to rig the election. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the incident proved Republicans would "lie, cheat, and threaten our democracy all for the sake of gaining power," without providing evidence that the GOP planned to tamper with ballots. Republicans deny any wrongdoing and accused Democrats of hypocrisy.

Did Republicans break the law?

Yes, according to California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, a Democrat who is overseeing the election. His office sent a five-page memo to counties explaining their interpretation of the relevant state laws, which regulate ballot dropboxes and ballot collection efforts by third parties.

Padilla's office says state law only permits election officials -- not political parties -- to establish dropboxes for voters to return their ballots. Therefore, the GOP-installed boxes are illegal.

The memo also said Republicans violated laws on ballot collection, which is pejoratively called "ballot harvesting." California lets voters designate any "person" to return their ballot on their behalf, often a family member of a volunteer from a political campaign. But the GOP dropboxes eliminated this person-to-person part of the process, which is a key safeguard against fraud.

Is there an investigation?

Becerra is "prepared to take action to enforce state law, should it become necessary," his office said in the cease-and-desist letter state GOP leaders.

The Orange County district attorney's office said Monday that it "launched an investigation" into the unauthorized dropboxes. District Attorney Todd Spitzer, a Republican, said in a press release that he "will not tolerate anyone interfering with someone's ability to have their voice heard in our democratic process," and would evaluate whether criminal charges are warranted.

Fresno County Clerk Brandi Orth told CNN that she received videos from a voter of improper GOP dropboxes in her area, and that she referred them to the Fresno County district attorney.

How is Trump responding?

Trump has repeatedly undermined the integrity of the election and lied about the prevalence of voter fraud in California and other states. He falsely claimed ballot dropboxes are dangerous and lead to vote-rigging, and he waded into the California dispute Tuesday with two tweets.

"You mean only Democrats are allowed to do this? But haven't the Dems been doing this for years? See you in court. Fight hard Republicans!" Trump tweeted Tuesday night, inaccurately describing state laws, which allow any party to collect ballots, as long as it is done in-person.

And in an earlier tweet, Trump encouraged Republicans in two other reliably Democratic states to try similar tactics, saying, "New York and Illinois -- go for it!" While Trump seemed eager about the possibility of filing lawsuits about the dropbox situation in California, the Trump campaign and Republicans haven't been successful at stopping mail-in voting in the courts this cycle.

What happens next?

The next few days will determine if this dispute escalates into a massive political showdown, leads to a full-blown criminal investigation -- or if Republicans quietly decide to back down.

 

It's possible Republicans were just trying to test the waters of what they are legally permitted to do, like their recent efforts to send unauthorized poll watchers to voting sites in Philadelphia. Another more sinister possibility, experts said, is that they knew the dropboxes would cause issues, but are trying to sow chaos and weaken public confidence in the vote-by-mail process.

"I think imparting a coherent political strategy to this is a fool's errand," said CNN analyst Jessica Huseman, who covers voting rights and election administration for ProPublica. "I think it was just a way for them to stir the pot, and I don't know how effective it really was. Ultimately, the people who ended up holding the bag were Republican Party members, and nobody else."