Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Death en Masse? Complete hyperbole.

NY - 2900 deaths/1M

Florida (oldest population in country) -2600/1M

Texas - 2300/1M

Idaho -1700/1M

You need to get your news somewhere else than CNN.

Here are the Top 10 States ranked by C19 deaths/1M:

Pretty much split between red and blue states (Texas is 19th).

Here's total C19 deaths, Top 10 states:

Again, pretty even split. 

cnyrider your judgement without data is again unjustified. At some point people have to stop reacting out of emotion and offense (per the media) and be logical, reasonable, and fair.

[TugHillMatt]

55 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Here are the Top 10 States ranked by C19 deaths/1M:

Pretty much split between red and blue states (Texas is 19th).

Here's total C19 deaths, Top 10 states:

Again, pretty even split. 

cnyrider your judgement without data is again unjustified. At some point people have to stop reacting out of emotion and offense (per the media) and be logical, reasonable, and fair.

Boom. Awesome use of stats.

[TugHillMatt]

56 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Here are the Top 10 States ranked by C19 deaths/1M:

Pretty much split between red and blue states (Texas is 19th).

Here's total C19 deaths, Top 10 states:

Again, pretty even split. 

cnyrider your judgement without data is again unjustified. At some point people have to stop reacting out of emotion and offense (per the media) and be logical, reasonable, and fair.

I bet it would also be telling to break those up by age group as well. Florida with its elderly population...PA shocked me that it's so high, but there is a large elderly population there as well.

[vortmax]

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Boom. Awesome use of stats.

I'm really not trying to slam anyone, it's just that so many smart, intelligent, data-centric people get caught up in the emotion of media & politics (on both sides - I'm guilty as charged). It divisive and saddening. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I'm really not trying to slam anyone, it's just that so many smart, intelligent, data-centric people get caught up in the emotion of media & politics (on both sides - I'm guilty as charged). It divisive and saddening. 

Oops, I didn't mean it like you "slammed" him. I was excited about your use of data. lol

It is, indeed. It super-saddens me to see how it is dividing churches and people of faith in our nation.

[cny rider]

7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Boom. Awesome use of stats.

Yes, awesome use of stats to obscure the reality of what is taking place.

You know that if Warren Buffett joined this discussion we are having, statistically speaking on average we would all be billionaires ?

 

[cny rider]

8 hours ago, vortmax said:

Here are the Top 10 States ranked by C19 deaths/1M:

Pretty much split between red and blue states (Texas is 19th).

Here's total C19 deaths, Top 10 states:

Again, pretty even split. 

cnyrider your judgement without data is again unjustified. At some point people have to stop reacting out of emotion and offense (per the media) and be logical, reasonable, and fair.

I don't watch CNN and I don't consume a lot of media.

Your stats are misleading about what has actually happened over the last 18 months.

New York was ground zero for the arrival of Covid in early 2020.  The city was overwhelmed with it.

There were no vaccines, no effective treatments and a completely overwhelmed hospital system.  Bad decisions were made regarding nursing home residents.

Deaths from Covid were measured in the thousands per week, peaking at over 2300 in April 2020.

Since that time we have developed vaccines, effective therapies, and learned much about the effectiveness of masks and environmental control of virus spread.

New York's death toll is generally 100-200 per week now.

Florida did not have the early disease surge that NY had.  Their first week with deaths greater than 1000 was in July 2020.

The sad, senseless part is that through poor vaccination efforts, and refusal to implement risk reduction practices, the death toll in Florida soared to over 2000 per week in August and September.

That should not have happened with a highly effective, widely available vaccine.

Thousands of people suffered and died senseless, unnecessary deaths as a result of bad governance and management.

 

 

 

[vortmax]

11 hours ago, cny rider said:

I don't watch CNN and I don't consume a lot of media.

Your stats are misleading about what has actually happened over the last 18 months.

New York was ground zero for the arrival of Covid in early 2020.  The city was overwhelmed with it.

There were no vaccines, no effective treatments and a completely overwhelmed hospital system.  Bad decisions were made regarding nursing home residents.

Deaths from Covid were measured in the thousands per week, peaking at over 2300 in April 2020.

Since that time we have developed vaccines, effective therapies, and learned much about the effectiveness of masks and environmental control of virus spread.

New York's death toll is generally 100-200 per week now.

Florida did not have the early disease surge that NY had.  Their first week with deaths greater than 1000 was in July 2020.

The sad, senseless part is that through poor vaccination efforts, and refusal to implement risk reduction practices, the death toll in Florida soared to over 2000 per week in August and September.

That should not have happened with a highly effective, widely available vaccine.

Thousands of people suffered and died senseless, unnecessary deaths as a result of bad governance and management.

 

 

 

You're right with good points, NY was front loaded and TX/FL rear. CA has been pretty steady throughout, it seems. 

It's worth considering, however, that Delta wasn't around in the first & second waves and FL/TX likely wouldn't have had as many cases & deaths with Alpha. It's also likely NY would've been much worse if Delta existed from the start. So it's not really an apples to apples compare.

Quick edit: I think the public knows enough about Covid/vaccines/prevention that states like FL & TX that value individual freedom (and  subsequent responsibilities & consequences) over control are in the right on this one. I personally don't have a problem with vaccines, masks or social distancing (who the heck wants to get sick with anything?) and choose to love & respect people.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

You're right with good points, NY was front loaded and TX/FL rear. CA has been pretty steady throughout, it seems. 

It's worth considering, however, that Delta wasn't around in the first & second waves and FL/TX likely wouldn't have had as many cases & deaths with Alpha. It's also likely NY would've been much worse if Delta existed from the start. So it's not really an apples to apples compare.

Several people who I work with got the vaccine and have now had to quarantine the past couple weeks because of contracting Covid....and getting sick. I think we're past "breakout cases." So, I'm going to assume it's waning of their vaccines combined with the Delta variant. Doesn't bring much encouragement. It's been well over 6 months, which they seem to think is the period it starts to lose its effectiveness. Doesn't seem like a very long protection period...  

[wolfie09]

Hell of a fight last night..

 

 

[rochesterdave]

On 10/8/2021 at 9:14 AM, Luke_Mages said:

Death en Masse? Complete hyperbole.

NY - 2900 deaths/1M

Florida (oldest population in country) -2600/1M

Texas - 2300/1M

Idaho -1700/1M

You need to get your news somewhere else than CNN.

Except that the huge majority of deaths, in NYC, occurred prior to a working vaccine. The other states incurred their deaths as a result of eschewing vaccines. 
you should consider getting your news from someone other than Hannity. See what I did there? Lol

[rochesterdave]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:56 PM, TugHillMatt said:

Several people who I work with got the vaccine and have now had to quarantine the past couple weeks because of contracting Covid....and getting sick. I think we're past "breakout cases." So, I'm going to assume it's waning of their vaccines combined with the Delta variant. Doesn't bring much encouragement. It's been well over 6 months, which they seem to think is the period it starts to lose its effectiveness. Doesn't seem like a very long protection period...  

I’ve seen it too, in my hospital. Fortunately; and as expected, these breakthrough cases have been nothing more than an inconvenience. The vaccine continues to provide excellent protection against severe cases. 
We continue to see catastrophic cases in the unvaxed group. 
Anecdotally, the breakthrough cases have been among those given Pfizer over 8 months ago. Moderna seems to be holding 

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve seen it too, in my hospital. Fortunately; and as expected, these breakthrough cases have been nothing more than an inconvenience. The vaccine continues to provide excellent protection against severe cases. 
We continue to see catastrophic cases in the unvaxed group. 
Anecdotally, the breakthrough cases have been among those given Pfizer over 8 months ago. Moderna seems to be holding 

Yes, I agree it seems to be protecting people well. However, my colleague who was sick was pretty dang sick with it. Her unvaxxed husband was waaay worse though. O2 level of 89 and obviously had to go to the hospital. Eek. Still refuses to get it after that.

A friend currently (in his 60s) is fighting for his life right now. Family member said he is ready to give up because he's so exhausted from trying to breathe. Truly saddening situation. 

I said to my wife tonight that when you have a family member suffering through it, it really puts this virus in a different perspective. I am so thankful she seems to be getting much better now. Still has a cough and gets drained...but waaaaaay better than last weekend.

The Syracuse area has been walloped the past several weeks by this thing.

[BuffaloWeather]

Let’s gooooo what a performance by everyone 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

11 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Except that the huge majority of deaths, in NYC, occurred prior to a working vaccine. The other states incurred their deaths as a result of eschewing vaccines. 
you should consider getting your news from someone other than Hannity. See what I did there? Lol

That doesn't make my point wrong. At no point are we experiencing "death en masse" in red states relative to blue states as @cny rider claimed. Statistically it doesn't matter what state you're in and the measures taken, the death rate is about the same. 

I'd bet any amount of money that the death rate has a stronger correlation to obesity/diabetes/insert comorbitity here than vaccination status...

[cny rider]

32 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

That doesn't make my point wrong. At no point are we experiencing "death en masse" in red states relative to blue states as @cny rider claimed. Statistically it doesn't matter what state you're in and the measures taken, the death rate is about the same. 

I'd bet any amount of money that the death rate has a stronger correlation to obesity/diabetes/insert comorbitity here than vaccination status...

Death en masse wasn't a comment on red versus blue states.

It's a comment on Florida having 400 Covid deaths a day last month, many of which would not have happened had vaccination and public health measures been followed.

400 dead people is a lot of dead people.

You've probably flown on a 737 at some point?  Two or three of those crashing a day, every day, killing everyone on board.  You would think there would be some attempt to stop the carnage after just a few of those planes crashed in Florida, but there was an almost reflexive refusal by the governor to do anything constructive. 

 

 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

5 hours ago, cny rider said:

Death en masse wasn't a comment on red versus blue states.

It's a comment on Florida having 400 Covid deaths a day last month, many of which would not have happened had vaccination and public health measures been followed.

400 dead people is a lot of dead people.

You've probably flown on a 737 at some point?  Two or three of those crashing a day, every day, killing everyone on board.  You would think there would be some attempt to stop the carnage after just a few of those planes crashed in Florida, but there was an almost reflexive refusal by the governor to do anything constructive. 

 

 

 You're missing the point...there's no choice being taken by the people on those planes to risk death and die. They are paying for safe travel.

I'm vaccinated. I think its great and amazing and a testament to our ability to innovate.

However it's wrong to force something upon people for their "own good", especially when its not deadly for 99.8% of the population.

How would you feel if we realized that its really overpopulation causing global warming(it is) and it was determined that for the sake of mankind it was necessary to sterilize half the population? Global warming has the potential to kill billions of humans along with thousands of entire species. Would you agree with that being forced on people too?

Or how about forcing people to eat healthy and exercise to stop the obesity and diabetes pandemic?

It's too slippery a slop and small percentage of the population dying(tech by their choice not to be vaxd) for me to agree with you on the topic. I think that the looming economic catastrophe from everything going on will overshadow the entire pandemic.

 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Here's a real time example of what's coming...

I design systems for the food and beverage industry. While everything is stainless the equipment to make everything you eat wears out much quicker than you think. I just had to buy a bunch of simple check valves for a project that are 10% higher year over year.

That's completely unheard of.

Stainless tubing is up almost 50%. Valves 5-10%. Tanks 20% Lead times are double because everyone's short on staff.

This will affect all of your food and beverage prices, companies wont absorb this. Its already happening and will accelerate as the lag time of raw material pricing catches up. 

[matt8204]

12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Let’s gooooo what a performance by everyone 

Any room on the Bills Mafia bandwagon?  Happy to support you guys as my adopted team since it's another lost season for Big Blue.  Great win last night!

[matt8204]

17 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Here's a real time example of what's coming...

I design systems for the food and beverage industry. While everything is stainless the equipment to make everything you eat wears out much quicker than you think. I just had to buy a bunch of simple check valves for a project that are 10% higher year over year.

That's completely unheard of.

Stainless tubing is up almost 50%. Valves 5-10%. Tanks 20% Lead times are double because everyone's short on staff.

This will affect all of your food and beverage prices, companies wont absorb this. Its already happening and will accelerate as the lag time of raw material pricing catches up. 

...but the White House press secretary thinks it's "absurd" for companies to raise prices when their costs go up.  Does she have the first clue of how economics works?  Higher expenses are always passed on down the line.  

[Buckeyes_Suck]

3 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Any room on the Bills Mafia bandwagon?  Happy to support you guys as my adopted team since it's another lost season for Big Blue.  Great win last night!

Hop aboard. My wife's a Giants fan. Can believe you guys drafted this guy second overall.

[matt8204]

Just now, Luke_Mages said:

Hop aboard. My wife's a Giants fan. Can believe you guys drafted this guy second overall.

LMAO!  Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.  It's a mess at Met Life.  The kid is talented and seems like a great person but I didn't like the pick from the beginning.  Running backs burn out too quickly and the game isn't centered around the rushing attack the way it was 20-30 years ago.

[cny rider]

7 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

 You're missing the point...there's no choice being taken by the people on those planes to risk death and die. They are paying for safe travel.

I'm vaccinated. I think its great and amazing and a testament to our ability to innovate.

However it's wrong to force something upon people for their "own good", especially when its not deadly for 99.8% of the population.

How would you feel if we realized that its really overpopulation causing global warming(it is) and it was determined that for the sake of mankind it was necessary to sterilize half the population? Global warming has the potential to kill billions of humans along with thousands of entire species. Would you agree with that being forced on people too?

Or how about forcing people to eat healthy and exercise to stop the obesity and diabetes pandemic?

It's too slippery a slop and small percentage of the population dying(tech by their choice not to be vaxd) for me to agree with you on the topic. I think that the looming economic catastrophe from everything going on will overshadow the entire pandemic.

 

My argument is based on public health.

In this post and the one below I think you make a compelling economic argument in favor of vaccination.

I don't come to this knowing much about supply chains, but have read a bit lately as they have been in the news.

Do your products originate in Asia?

Wouldn't the best thing for your business be for as many people to get vaccinated as possible, all over the world?

You wouldn't have mines shutting down for Covid, factories shutting down because of Covid, shipping understaffed because of Covid and so on and so on.

Your products could be produced, and get to you on time, with the least inflationary pressure versus what is happening now.

That doesn't mean it has to be mandatory for everyone.  But it means it should be promoted and presented in a positive light as a way of resuming healthy economic activity.

 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

My argument is based on public health.

In this post and the one below I think you make a compelling economic argument in favor of vaccination.

I don't come to this knowing much about supply chains, but have read a bit lately as they have been in the news.

Do your products originate in Asia?

Wouldn't the best thing for your business be for as many people to get vaccinated as possible, all over the world?

You wouldn't have mines shutting down for Covid, factories shutting down because of Covid, shipping understaffed because of Covid and so on and so on.

Your products could be produced, and get to you on time, with the least inflationary pressure versus what is happening now.

That doesn't mean it has to be mandatory for everyone.  But it means it should be promoted and presented in a positive light as a way of resuming healthy economic activity.

 

 

In my industry the facilities I deal with refused to shut down regardless of how many people had Covid. That is the right approach. At the very beginning of this there was a meeting I attended where the largest producer of dairy products in the area talke about the number of people who died of starvation during the Spanish Flu and that under no circumstance would they be shutting down. Instead production increased and I’ve been busier than ever since the beginning if this. This is long before the vaccine was even thought possible. 
So no I’m not arguing that vaccines should be pushed to allow people back to work. I’m saying that everyone should get back to work regardless and that people in power should be encouraging that, not firing nurses and other essential employees. I worked nonstop through this even with Covid as did my wife. Everyone needs to get back to work and the fear mongering needs to stop. It’s simply enabling all the lazy ass people out there to do what they do best. 

[vortmax]

15 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

 

In my industry the facilities I deal with refused to shut down regardless of how many people had Covid. That is the right approach. At the very beginning of this there was a meeting I attended where the largest producer of dairy products in the area talke about the number of people who died of starvation during the Spanish Flu and that under no circumstance would they be shutting down. Instead production increased and I’ve been busier than ever since the beginning if this. This is long before the vaccine was even thought possible. 
So no I’m not arguing that vaccines should be pushed to allow people back to work. I’m saying that everyone should get back to work regardless and that people in power should be encouraging that, not firing nurses and other essential employees. I worked nonstop through this even with Covid as did my wife. Everyone needs to get back to work and the fear mongering needs to stop. It’s simply enabling all the lazy ass people out there to do what they do best. 

Both you guys offer interesting perspectives. I would tend to agree with the 'refuse to shut down regardless of how many people had Covid' methodology as it's just not deadly enough to do so vs. the huge economic, mental, and social impacts to everyone else in the world . Check this out:

1) China’s zero-Covid policy is so strict that it shut down a key shipping terminal (3rd largest shipping port in the world) after just one case. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/chinas-zero-covid-strategy-to-disrupt-shipping-as-ningbo-zhoushan-port-shuts-.html

2) Largest port in South China (arguable the largest container port in the world) partly closed in June due to a few cases. https://us.leman.com/news/largest-port-in-south-china-partly-closed/

Just 2 POST-vaccine era examples of massive disruption of the GLOBAL supply chain due to a SINGLE case in one example and only a few in the other. Seems very unbalanced to me.

[DeltaT13]

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Both you guys offer interesting perspectives. I would tend to agree with the 'refuse to shut down regardless of how many people had Covid' methodology as it's just not deadly enough to do so vs. the huge economic, mental, and social impacts to everyone else in the world . Check this out:

1) China’s zero-Covid policy is so strict that it shut down a key shipping terminal (3rd largest shipping port in the world) after just one case. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/chinas-zero-covid-strategy-to-disrupt-shipping-as-ningbo-zhoushan-port-shuts-.html

2) Largest port in South China (arguable the largest container port in the world) partly closed in June due to a few cases. https://us.leman.com/news/largest-port-in-south-china-partly-closed/

Just 2 POST-vaccine era examples of massive disruption of the GLOBAL supply chain due to a SINGLE case in one example and only a few in the other. Seems very unbalanced to me.

Let me just go conspiracy theory here for a second, and this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but China's reaction to this virus is a little frightening seeing as they likely engineered it.  What do they know that we don't?  They seem way more afraid of it than anyone else.  Kind of makes you wonder...

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Let me just go conspiracy theory here for a second, and this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but China's reaction to this virus is a little frightening seeing as they likely engineered it.  What do they know that we don't?  They seem way more afraid of it than anyone else.  Kind of makes you wonder...

My theory based on the persistent brain fog I've experienced the last 6 months is that it incrementally decreases your intelligence, allowing china to become the superpower 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Let me just go conspiracy theory here for a second, and this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but China's reaction to this virus is a little frightening seeing as they likely engineered it.  What do they know that we don't?  They seem way more afraid of it than anyone else.  Kind of makes you wonder...

They also don't want their citizens to take the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.  My own doctor suggested that the vaccines could be pathway for another engineered virus:  I.E. vaccination would now be a 'marker' for a second engineered virus.  He took the vaccine and so did I but he scared the bejesus out of me.  So narrative goes like this:  they 'immunize' their own population against a second virus since it only attacks those with the pfizer or moderna.  Then they let the new virus rip the same way as before only now the only ones infected are people who got vaxed.  Then they invade Taiwan while the west goes on lockdown.  

I think they made the virus in the lab and the fact that it got released while they were clamping down on HK is too coincidental.  The HK story disappeared from the news instantly and is still gone.  They know this works!  Even if it was an accidental release, they took notes.  They will kill millions of their own if they have to.  They have done it before.  

Ji Jinping is an old school expansionist head of state and very dangerous. He wants to finish what Mao started and Mao killed a LOT of people.   The world is waking up to this but possibly too late.  

 

Go Bills.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

They also don't want their citizens to take the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.  My own doctor suggested that the vaccines could be pathway for another engineered virus:  I.E. vaccination would now be a 'marker' for a second engineered virus.  He took the vaccine and so did I but he scared the bejesus out of me.  So narrative goes like this:  they 'immunize' their own population against a second virus since it only attacks those with the pfizer or moderna.  Then they let the new virus rip the same way as before only now the only ones infected are people who got vaxed.  Then they invade Taiwan while the west goes on lockdown.  

I think they made the virus in the lab and the fact that it got released while they were clamping down on HK is too coincidental.  The HK story disappeared from the news instantly and is still gone.  They know this works!  Even if it was an accidental release, they took notes.  They will kill millions of their own if they have to.  They have done it before.  

Ji Jinping is an old school expansionist head of state and very dangerous. He wants to finish what Mao started and Mao killed a LOT of people.   The world is waking up to this but possibly too late.  

 

Go Bills.

Yep

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

My theory based on the persistent brain fog I've experienced the last 6 months is that it incrementally decreases your intelligence, allowing china to become the superpower 

My brain was so shot in Jan/Feb I felt like I was permanently tripping. Like what the heck was that....