Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[vortmax]

11 hours ago, brentrich said:

Highly doubt it, we will not get back to normal lives by 2022. The goal was to get 20 million people vaccinated by end of 2020 (According to CDC). Right now it's Jan 6th and only a little over 2 million people already have it (only on 1st dose, not on second dose yet). I believe we will see peak in February and another peak again in July/August before thing starts to slow down. Over 4k deaths today, doesn't look good for next several weeks so we need to get ready. 

I only said there will be a big dent in C19 by the summer (no peak in July/Aug), not a return to normal. That will occur, IMHO, at the end of 2021.

[vortmax]

On 1/5/2021 at 9:04 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

a lengthy but very interesting article.

Did the Coronavirus Escape From a Lab? (nymag.com)

This was a very good article. Would be really good to understand where this really came from. An interesting quote:

But I keep returning to the basic, puzzling fact: This patchwork pathogen, which allegedly has evolved without human meddling, first came to notice in the only city in the world with a laboratory that was paid for years by the U.S. government to perform experiments on certain obscure and heretofore unpublicized strains of bat viruses — which bat viruses then turned out to be, out of all the organisms on the planet, the ones that are most closely related to the disease. What are the odds?

[rochesterdave]

56 minutes ago, vortmax said:

This was a very good article. Would be really good to understand where this really came from. An interesting quote:

But I keep returning to the basic, puzzling fact: This patchwork pathogen, which allegedly has evolved without human meddling, first came to notice in the only city in the world with a laboratory that was paid for years by the U.S. government to perform experiments on certain obscure and heretofore unpublicized strains of bat viruses — which bat viruses then turned out to be, out of all the organisms on the planet, the ones that are most closely related to the disease. What are the odds?

The US was/is in Wuhan because that is where so many of the worlds flus start. We are there to identify and start the arduous process of creating the next vaccine. 
These conspiratorial suggestions just don’t add up bro. I mean first of all, what’s their motivation? And why do it in Wuhan? Why not a strip mall in Chevy Chase Maryland?
I never realized you were a redhat. I knew Tim was. 

And who tf is warning me that I can’t discuss politics on the banter page? Isn’t that what this is for? 

[rochesterdave]

I’ve just started the Keto diet. I’m on day 3. Suppose I’m already in ketosis. Had some monster leg cramps last night. Feel a little out of it and disoriented. Any tips? Anyone done it? 
My plan is to do 6 days keto followed by a cheat day and then repeat. 

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

The US was/is in Wuhan because that is where so many of the worlds flus start. We are there to identify and start the arduous process of creating the next vaccine. 
These conspiratorial suggestions just don’t add up bro. I mean first of all, what’s their motivation? And why do it in Wuhan? Why not a strip mall in Chevy Chase Maryland?
I never realized you were a redhat. I knew Tim was. 

And who tf is warning me that I can’t discuss politics on the banter page? Isn’t that what this is for? 

I think that warning went to everyone in general. Not sure.

WTF is a redhat - and does one become a redhat because one wants to know the truth? Does anyone conclusively know where this came from and how it developed? No. Is it important to know, conclusively, where this came from and how? Yes.

I can think of many reasons the Chinese government would be meddling with viruses - both benign and nefarious. Isn't that obvious?

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

This was a very good article. Would be really good to understand where this really came from. An interesting quote:

But I keep returning to the basic, puzzling fact: This patchwork pathogen, which allegedly has evolved without human meddling, first came to notice in the only city in the world with a laboratory that was paid for years by the U.S. government to perform experiments on certain obscure and heretofore unpublicized strains of bat viruses — which bat viruses then turned out to be, out of all the organisms on the planet, the ones that are most closely related to the disease. What are the odds?

A very interesting quote indeed! WHO is on the search for the origination of the virus because it is vitally important that the species from which the virus made the jump to humans is known to help prevent future transmissions. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve just started the Keto diet. I’m on day 3. Suppose I’m already in ketosis. Had some monster leg cramps last night. Feel a little out of it and disoriented. Any tips? Anyone done it? 
My plan is to do 6 days keto followed by a cheat day and then repeat. 

Best advice is to get off of Keto and begin to eat sensibly and exercise. A mix of cardio and weight lifting is best.  Your body is likely experiencing a shock to the change in diet. 

[Syrmax]

11 hours ago, WNash said:

Equities prices are being backstopped by the Fed, which has created moral hazard for investors. In fact, investors are dramatically increasing exposure to risk because on the evidence, share prices can only rise. In a sense it’s a massive government intervention that overwhelmingly favors very wealthy people, and it’s not sustainable, creating absurd EPS ratios. At the moment when investors realize that the Fed will no longer subsidize equity markets, there will be a collapse in stock prices, but unlike the pandemic bear market, nobody will be riding to the rescue of stock traders.

Don't disagree.  But FED money printer go burrrrr...bc it has to...

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, vortmax said:

I think that warning went to everyone in general. Not sure.

WTF is a redhat - and does one become a redhat because one wants to know the truth? Does anyone conclusively know where this came from and how it developed? No. Is it important to know, conclusively, where this came from and how? Yes.

I can think of many reasons the Chinese government would be meddling with viruses - both benign and nefarious. Isn't that obvious?

I agree with your last statement. The Chinese government had many reasons to try and halt tension within Hong Kong regarding the government taking control of it again. What other way than to release a virus unto their own people as a way to mass control. The Chinese do not care about the outside and ant effects. 

[Syrmax]

18 hours ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Yeah...T brought the stock market back to record levels.  You are seeing numbers nobody has ever seen so be prepared for a big dip...call it a hunch.

Yeah I think we are actually in a new and unstable paradigm. And its debt related. Fed cannot stop printing bc treasury debt needs to be auctioned into market (and what isn't bought in auction is held/managed by Fed).  QE forever is also keeping financial system liquid.  If interest rates were ever allowed to normalize, everything blows up. Literally. So they can't. Same with Japan and Europe. China is a rigged economy and fin system but they're a Potemkin village and hide debt, half of which are bad loans...

The $2T current account deficits are absurd.  Not sure what the catalyst or timing of a correction will be but i suspect it will be fast and furious, like the last couple. The V shape recoveries seem to bail everyone out in shirt order and have become an expected norm also.  I don't think any of this is sustainable but markets can remain irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent is the old saying.

[rochesterdave]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Best advice is to get off of Keto and begin to eat sensibly and exercise. A mix of cardio and weight lifting is best.  Your body is likely experiencing a shock to the change in diet. 

I’ve eaten a balanced diet always. I’m not overweight (165). Keto is actually a treatment for a rare muscle condition I have believe it or not. It’s called Glycogen Deficiency 5. My muscles can’t utilize sugar the way most peoples can but they can utilize fats. Unfortunately, if carbs are available, muscles will use them first, followed by fats. So Keto removes the carb availability allowing my muscles to act normal which is awesome! I kinda hate it (the diet) so far but I want to at least try it for a while. 

It’s one of those catch 22s. Lol. It might not be worth the improvement in muscle function but I won’t know until I know. 

[rochesterdave]

23 hours ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Yeah...T brought the stock market back to record levels.  You are seeing numbers nobody has ever seen so be prepared for a big dip...call it a hunch.

The market has done just ok under Trump. I’m sure you know that historically the markets do much better with democrats. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

8 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve just started the Keto diet. I’m on day 3. Suppose I’m already in ketosis. Had some monster leg cramps last night. Feel a little out of it and disoriented. Any tips? Anyone done it? 
My plan is to do 6 days keto followed by a cheat day and then repeat. 

My wife and I have been keto for over ten years now, both in great shape and vitals. I’ve had friends try it and experience the same thing you are. I’d make sure you’re getting enough calories, it’s definitely tougher getting what you need without carbs. 

[WNash]

7 hours ago, Syrmax said:

 

The $2T current account deficits are absurd.  Not sure what the catalyst or timing of a correction will be but i suspect it will be fast and furious, like the last couple. The V shape recoveries seem to bail everyone out in shirt order and have become an expected norm also.  I don't think any of this is sustainable but markets can remain irrational longer than any of us can remain solvent is the old saying.

I’m starting to come around to the realization that federal budget deficits and the national debt don’t actually matter. Whether a Democrat or a Republican wins the presidency, deficits don’t matter, and the debt goes up. Even the tax vs spend argument doesn’t mean much. I was born when Nixon was President, and every President in my lifetime except Carter actually increased spending AND lowered taxes. The only taxation difference between Rs and Ds is that Democrats’ tax cuts are usually offset by a tax hike on wealthier people and Republicans tend to shift the overall taxation burden downward by disproportionately cutting taxes for the wealthy. And there aren’t meaningful spending differences between the two parties. Republicans talk about cutting discretionary non-defense spending but never actually do, while some Democrats talk about cutting military spending and then do not. 
 

The only really meaningful deficit reduction since Carter left office was in the last Clinton term, when total federal discretionary spending was kept around the inflation rate while upper income and capital gains tax rates, increased when Clinton first took office, brought in a lot of revenue from the first tech boom. 

 

Despite the fact that neither party is actually willing to do anything about budget deficits, predictions of runaway inflation or other economic consequences never materialize. In practice, deficits really only seem to matter as a pretext for ideological policy preferences. 
 

So the same politicians who brought us a 50% increase in the national debt are going to pretend that deficit spending is a danger to the republic. Total nonsense, but most politicians know that admitting their real motivation would get them run out of office. Either deficits do matter or they don’t, and if they matter, politicians should have to govern like they matter. We’re not politicians, so we don’t have to BS each other.

[SyracuseStorm]

10 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve just started the Keto diet. I’m on day 3. Suppose I’m already in ketosis. Had some monster leg cramps last night. Feel a little out of it and disoriented. Any tips? Anyone done it? 
My plan is to do 6 days keto followed by a cheat day and then repeat. 

Keto is tricky- get bloodwork done every 6 months to make sure your levels are going in the right direction.  Cramps are tough- eat more pickles and drink pickle juice- Keto friendly.

Day 3...probably not in ketosis just yet- typically longer transition.  Your urine will start smelling rank and that’s when you but some test strips to measure ketones.  Blood test with finger prick is best but urine strips are just fine.

Thomas DeLauer is the Keto guru on YouTube.

have done Keto off and on for about 3 years- great for quick weight loss.  Throw in IF after in ketosis for 2 months and boom!  However, once you reach your targeted weight loss, start adding carbs back into your diet and cut back on all the extra butter & oils.  

Balanced and sensible as one member said.  Much easier to be balanced and sensible after you shed a good amount of fat.  Keto will teach you to be diligent in your meal prepping so it will also teach you what your balance will be.  Of that makes sense.

 

 

[SyracuseStorm]

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

The market has done just ok under Trump. I’m sure you know that historically the markets do much better with democrats. 

Yeah...love the work here!  However, think Obama took office when the market collapsed in 2008- only one way to go.  Trump also dealt with the first global pandemic since...  Was unaware of those stats so thank you for posting.  

[vortmax]

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

The market has done just ok under Trump. I’m sure you know that historically the markets do much better with democrats. 

I found a different GDP chart here, different from yours. Remember, GDP in 2020 was quite unique and would've crashed under any sitting president - Trumps 4 year average would've been north of 2.5% without COVID. Here's the link (https://www.thebalance.com/gdp-growth-by-president-highs-lows-averages-4801102):

 

And the S&P (https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/?sh=7150e665faaf):

 

“Bull markets and bear markets come and go, and it’s more to do with business cycles than presidents.”

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Quite a few of my friends are all about crypto, anyone have any suggestions? One is heavy into XRP, a few into ETH, Bitcoin is too expensive to make a great deal of money. Another bought a bunch of Litecoin last night. 

[CIK62]

Some interesting side points to ponder about the CoronaVirus:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-science/covid-science-virus-can-damage-brain-without-infecting-it-hair-loss-on-rise-among-minorities-during-pandemic-idUSL1N2JH28K

As for BitCoin:     Remember  2 X Zero is still Zero.        Something with no tangible, intrinsic value to begin with, cannot double in price etc

Ask yourself this>>>>>>   How much are you willing to pay for a burlap sack full of sand.       Well , if my property is not threatened by a flood in next few hours >>> $0.00       With ample warning I can obtain empty burlap sacks and fill them myself.

If BitCoin is a storehouse of wealth, then why are you pricing it in Dollars?       Ostensibly you are buying it in the first place because you fear a Dollar collapse!!!!

When you can make statement such as       1 Bitcoin  =   0.50 of an Escalade SUV,     or = 0.10 the cost of an average home,    or = 40  50" HDTV 4k TV's   etc.   ------   and these ratios do  not change radically by the day or minute-----you will have something of value.

Sorry,  but all my Red Tulip Bulbs  have molted and withered away.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Congrats to all the Buffalo fans in here. Crazy game


.

[rochesterdave]

On 1/7/2021 at 8:43 PM, SyracuseStorm said:

Keto is tricky- get bloodwork done every 6 months to make sure your levels are going in the right direction.  Cramps are tough- eat more pickles and drink pickle juice- Keto friendly.

Day 3...probably not in ketosis just yet- typically longer transition.  Your urine will start smelling rank and that’s when you but some test strips to measure ketones.  Blood test with finger prick is best but urine strips are just fine.

Thomas DeLauer is the Keto guru on YouTube.

have done Keto off and on for about 3 years- great for quick weight loss.  Throw in IF after in ketosis for 2 months and boom!  However, once you reach your targeted weight loss, start adding carbs back into your diet and cut back on all the extra butter & oils.  

Balanced and sensible as one member said.  Much easier to be balanced and sensible after you shed a good amount of fat.  Keto will teach you to be diligent in your meal prepping so it will also teach you what your balance will be.  Of that makes sense.

 

 

Great points! Unbeknownst to me, my glucose monitor will accept keto strips. I have ordered them and urine strips. I’ve been getting plenty of calories as my weight hasn’t shifted. 166. Started at 169. I’ve been eating an entire rib roast. So that might explain lack of weight loss. Lol

[rochesterdave]

My stocks have been going gang busters. Exceptionally nuts since the election. I bought oil at the bottom. Got Boeing and Carnival at the bottom. Sold both of them. Bought Amazon at 1800. 
My thinking, in March, was that the virus was over exaggerated and that the down turn was a flash sell. Boy was I wrong but it still panned out. Crazy. I’ve never been part of a big run like this. I have a bad history timing stocks. I went nearly all in with this one (well, maybe 50%)- I’m conservative. And so far, I’ve gotta be up nearly 50%, across the board. It’s been a fun year for $. Gotta think inflation is gonna come knocking? But I’m worse at prognosing economic things than I am at weather- you didn’t think it possible did you?!?!?

[SyracuseStorm]

22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Great points! Unbeknownst to me, my glucose monitor will accept keto strips. I have ordered them and urine strips. I’ve been getting plenty of calories as my weight hasn’t shifted. 166. Started at 169. I’ve been eating an entire rib roast. So that might explain lack of weight loss. Lol

Love that pic!  Yeah- always remember calories in, calories out.  Also, I am 6’ 3” and 238 pounds so a i would drop 5-8 pounds of water the first week of keto (while heavier at 255-260)and then it was a slow drop for weeks until it started to snowball after 2-3 weeks in terms of weight loss.  Find out your BMR (typically body weight x 12 so your BMR or calories burned at rest is roughly 2000 calories.  There are many calculators for macros although I never used them.  With keto, you can easily double that so proceed with caution.

I am dealing with COVID and recovering so still eating good meats but added carbs and “regular food” to boost my immune system.  After this is over, I will be doing more of carnivore type lifestyle, only eating meat and supplementing with vitamins and minerals.  Have done carnivore and keto and for me, carnivore worked best because I literally ate once or twice a day, usually 1 or 2 ribeye steaks- that’s it.  Just found it more convenient as getting quality high fat can be a challenge while traveling.

best of luck!

[wolfie09]

Ravens won..So who we rooting for tonight? Pittsburgh or cleveland?

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Ravens won..So who we rooting for tonight? Pittsburgh or cleveland?

Pittsburgh all the way. Would much rather play Pitt than Balt.

Indy could run the ball as you could obviously see yesterday and Baltimore is even better at running the ball. Pittsburgh has had next to no run game. I’m glad Derrick Henry and the Titans are out now because I was very afraid to see him against our run defense after seeing what Johnathon Taylor and Hines did to us yesterday. 
 

Pittsburgh wouldn’t be an easy out either though. Their defense can play and have a good chance to hold Allen back but I think we have a better chance. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Pittsburgh all the way. Would much rather play Pitt than Balt.

Balt can run the ball as you could obviously see yesterday and Baltimore is even better at running the ball. Pittsburgh has had next to no run game. I’m glad Derrick Henry and the Titans are out now because I was very afraid to see him against our run defense after seeing what Johnathon Taylor and Hines did to us yesterday. 
 

Pittsburgh wouldn’t be an easy out either though. Their defense can play and have a good chance to hold Allen back but I think we have a better chance. 

Easily the Steelers, Lamar is a ticking time bomb. Dudes a freak athlete. Steelers have nothing that scares me aside from Watt and we were able to stop him last time. The Titans beat us pretty bad earlier this season and the Ravens just beat them.

[Geez150]

Indy/Rivers was the first good QB we have played in over a month, (yes there was Ben/Pitt, but he wasn't playing good then). So this was a good test to keep them honest and keep digging. It's all up hill from here.

[BuffaloWeather]

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Wth Steelers...  looks like it’s the ravens next week at this rate. 

[wolfie09]

I think bills vs ravens is the better game so that's what I'm rooting for lol Crazy to think the Steelers were 11-0 not long ago..