Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[OSUmetstud]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That politician who died at 41, people say he died from a heart attack. Isn't one of the side effects of Covid heart issues? We saw that with the Jaguars RB and a few other athletes. 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/luke-letlow-dead-heart-attack-covid-19

LSU Health Shreveport Chancellor G.E. Ghali told the Monroe News-Star that Letlow, 41, experienced the heart attack following a hospital procedure related to the virus.

"It's devastating to our entire team," Ghali told the outlet, adding that Letlow had no underlying conditions.

"It was just COVID," the chancellor said.

LSU Health directed Fox News to Letlow family spokesperson Andrew Bautsch, who did not immediately respond to a request for more information.

 

[OSUmetstud]

21 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I've been looking at excess mortality #s since early on and there has been an increase above what normally be expected in just about every nation that keeps track of this stat.  Unfortunately, its hard/impossible to definitively separate true covid deaths from knock on effects of pandemic restrictions, which are real, and contribute to mortality. Possibly more real then some of the covid-19 cause of death assignments, at least in the US.  Whether any of that is statistically significant remains to be seen.  A lot of that type analysis will be "soft" in nature due to differing methods of assigning cause of death, etc.  May be years before this is fully determined, if ever.

There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. 

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

[Syrmax]

24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. 

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

Interesting and thanks.  A lot of shifting currents going on.  I've seen anecdotal reports of lowered number of "accidental" type deaths due to "less going on" as a result of various restrictions and that makes sense.  

[WNash]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Our rushing defense is so poor, Henry might get 300 yards. 

Henry’s a great running back, and potentially a HOF player. You have to hit him in the backfield to stop him. Green Bay’s linebackers showed every NFL team how to do that, and the Bills have some great MLBs.

As I know from my wife, Bills have seen too much to ever get cocky, but speaking objectively, they look like a top tier team with only KC joining them at that level.

[wolfie09]

Fitzmagic tested positive..

[BuffaloWeather]

Happy New Year everyone! Maybe 2021 bring us some sense of normalcy and lots of lake effect snow! 

[40westwx]

21 hours ago, Syrmax said:

I've been looking at excess mortality #s since early on and there has been an increase above what normally be expected in just about every nation that keeps track of this stat.  Unfortunately, its hard/impossible to definitively separate true covid deaths from knock on effects of pandemic restrictions, which are real, and contribute to mortality. Possibly more real then some of the covid-19 cause of death assignments, at least in the US.  Whether any of that is statistically significant remains to be seen.  A lot of that type analysis will be "soft" in nature due to differing methods of assigning cause of death, etc.  May be years before this is fully determined, if ever.

The US saw excess mortality that was indeed quite alarming in the second quarter of 2020.  We had several weeks that were over 75,000 deaths per week.  This was unprecedented and confirmed exactly what we were being warned about. But as the year went on, something weird happened.  The number of corona virus cases sky rocketed while the weekly mortality held steady. And as demonstrated by the CDC flu and mortality tracking data, the Corona virus in the second half of 2020, looked more like a bad flu season than the big bad pandemic it was made out to to be.  What happened you may ask?  A lot of people point to the "feel good" justifications for this:

• we are getting better at treating it
• younger people are being infected
• masks are decreasing viral load, leading to more asymptomatic cases, in effect making infections act more like inoculations.

Thats great and all, but you need only look a little closer to find out what really happened.  In the spring of 2020 the vast majority of the excess mortality occurred here in the north east.  Much of it was focused on the nursing homes and  palliative care facilities.  When panic set in, the elderly were immediately ordered to their rooms where they were isolated from care takers and forced to give up on daily activities.  Nursing home neglect, acting as the "tipping point" in the already fragile system, led to a systemic emergency where patients (in mass) developed many complications including blood clotting and worsening cardiovascular disease.  When these patients did arrive in the ICU, if there blood oxygen fell below a certain point, the "one size fits all policy" said:

• put them in an induced coma
• put the room under negative pressure
• put them on a feeding tube and run the tubes out of the room to limit exposure to staff
• if they crash.. let them die.. again to reduce exposure

Hospital bureaucrats didn't realize that an immediate result of placing people in mass in medically induced comas was organ failure.. specifically kidney failure. Many hospitals didnt have enough dialysis machines to keep up and many died waiting for treatment.

Today, COVID-19 patients are treated with steroids, put on cpap machines and kept in the hospital overnight for observation

And thats the difference.  When the doctors were allowed to use their judgement and years of experience to attack a problem in a sensible way, common sense solutions prevailed. 

 

[40westwx]

21 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

There's definitely some increase in deaths due to missed care. I think that's a given. It's still rather small compared to the huge mortality event that is COVID. You might also consider that there's some decrease in other deaths. Like less childhood mortality (reduced disease, accidents) and maybe less workplace and car accidents. 

Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. Joinpoint analyses revealed an increase in deaths attributed to causes other than COVID-19, with 2 reaching statistical significance. US mortality rates for heart disease increased between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 0.2-10.2]), driven by the spring surge in COVID-19 cases. Mortality rates for Alzheimer disease/dementia increased twice, between weeks ending March 21 and April 11 (APC, 7.3 [95% CI, 2.9-11.8]) and between weeks ending June 6 and July 25 (APC, 1.5 [95% CI, 0.8-2.3]), the latter coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761

I would argue it is not small.. every person I talk to about Corona Virus, I ask them one question.. "do you know any one who died of it"

And almost invariably the answer is "you know its weird.. but I dont".. but I do know people who have died from collateral damage.  I gave the two examples above about my friends mom who died of nursing home neglect and my tenant who relapsed and drank himself to death in isolation.  But I forgot to tell you perhaps the most eye opening case of all.. the other day I was getting a ride home in the courtesy shuttle from my car dealership and I started talking to the driver about the "pandemic" and I asked him the same question.. 

He said yes.. his wife, after working 30 years as an RN in an Orthopeadic Surgery facility was laid off from her job.  About a month later she fell in to a deep depression, became addicted to opiates and overdosed. 

Think about that for minute.. 

[cny rider]

20 hours ago, WNash said:

Henry’s a great running back, and potentially a HOF player. You have to hit him in the backfield to stop him. Green Bay’s linebackers showed every NFL team how to do that, and the Bills have some great MLBs.

As I know from my wife, Bills have seen too much to ever get cocky, but speaking objectively, they look like a top tier team with only KC joining them at that level.

Milano is absolutely key to stopping a runner like Henry (and we need Edmonds on top of his game too which has been hit and miss this year).  Given his tendency to get injured, I would not have him play a single down against Miami.  We really need him next week no matter who we end up playing.

 

[40westwx]

wow... I noticed that Corona Virus was a real headline in the news in California.. so I decided to run the excess death death data on 2018 compared to 2020 for just the state of California:

 

{ season2017_2018: 60285, season2019_2020: 56423 }

WHAT????

[40westwx]

15 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

wow... I noticed that Corona Virus was a real headline in the news in California.. so I decided to run the excess death death data on 2018 compared to 2020 for just the state of California:

 

{ season2017_2018: 60285, season2019_2020: 56423 }

WHAT????

HOLY F... 4000 LESS people have died in the last 10 weeks in California than died during the first 10 weeks of the flu season of 2018.  This shit is being manufactured on Social Media.  

I HAVE NO WORDS

Except the ones above grounded in facts and evidence

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, 40westwx said:

HOLY F... 4000 LESS people have died in the last 10 weeks in California than died during the first 10 weeks of the flu season of 2018.  This shit is being manufactured on Social Media.  

I HAVE NO WORDS

Except the ones above grounded in facts and evidence

From what I have been seeing from legacy media outlets and the rest, i thought everyone in California had died already of Covid already. Huh.

[40westwx]

46 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

From what I have been seeing from legacy media outlets and the rest, i thought everyone in California had died already of Covid already. Huh.

cpap machines

[Quixotic1]

3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

wow... I noticed that Corona Virus was a real headline in the news in California.. so I decided to run the excess death death data on 2018 compared to 2020 for just the state of California:

 

{ season2017_2018: 60285, season2019_2020: 56423 }

WHAT????

You’re a ****ing tool.

[Quixotic1]

51 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

cpap machines

Cpap machines.  Operated by little green men and mice.

[Quixotic1]

3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

HOLY F... 4000 LESS people have died in the last 10 weeks in California than died during the first 10 weeks of the flu season of 2018.  This shit is being manufactured on Social Media.  

I HAVE NO WORDS

Except the ones above grounded in facts and evidence

Lie

[Quixotic1]

3 hours ago, 40westwx said:

wow... I noticed that Corona Virus was a real headline in the news in California.. so I decided to run the excess death death data on 2018 compared to 2020 for just the state of California:

 

{ season2017_2018: 60285, season2019_2020: 56423 }

WHAT????

Lie

[Quixotic1]

4 hours ago, 40westwx said:

I would argue it is not small.. every person I talk to about Corona Virus, I ask them one question.. "do you know any one who died of it"

And almost invariably the answer is "you know its weird.. but I dont".. but I do know people who have died from collateral damage.  I gave the two examples above about my friends mom who died of nursing home neglect and my tenant who relapsed and drank himself to death in isolation.  But I forgot to tell you perhaps the most eye opening case of all.. the other day I was getting a ride home in the courtesy shuttle from my car dealership and I started talking to the driver about the "pandemic" and I asked him the same question.. 

He said yes.. his wife, after working 30 years as an RN in an Orthopeadic Surgery facility was laid off from her job.  About a month later she fell in to a deep depression, became addicted to opiates and overdosed. 

Think about that for minute.. 

Anecdotal and a lie.  A two-for.

[BuffaloWeather]

The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country.

This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country.

This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza

If you look at that study further, they estimate 36% of 18 to 49 cohort infected but only 17% of the 65+. So the 0.4% is the effective IFR due to more younger people infected than old. If every age group was equally infected it would be about double that. 

[OSUmetstud]

@BuffaloWeather

You liked my post on the previous page that discussed that study in detail already...

Lol

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

@BuffaloWeather

You liked my post on the previous page that discussed that study in detail already...

Lol

Yeah, I share stuff here over on the Great lakes section. Just wanted to point out were pretty close to herd immunity. Vaccines likely too late to make a huge difference. After you factor in Decembers case numbers that is. An estimated 3 million vaccinations were made in December, while it was supposed to be near 20 million.

[40westwx]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The CDC estimates the actual number of people infected (including asymptomatic cases) at 90mil through Nov 30th (doesn't include Decembers numbers) That’s almost 30% of the country.

This is a relatively new update from the CDC (12/23). More here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

That would put the fatality rate at .4%. CDC estimate of influenza death rate for most recent year is .057% (22,000 deaths / 38 million estimated cases). So, if the 90mill estimate is accurate, COVID is 7 times deadlier than Influenza

you have to subtract the "dying with covid" as opposed to "dying from covid".. after that you will get to around 0.57%

[40westwx]

5 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

Anecdotal and a lie.  A two-for.

I love it when I post good news about the corona virus.. like.. Hey.. not as many people died as we expected.. 

and people are like "shut up you liar.. so many people died.. its so sad and tragic.. people are dying everywhere.. stop lying"

[40westwx]

This is so factual .. In 2018 during the height of the bad flu season California experienced 60285 total deaths during week 1-10 (thats January - March 2018).  During a 10 week period in in 2020 from November to December California experienced 56423  deaths.

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, I share stuff here over on the Great lakes section. Just wanted to point out were pretty close to herd immunity. Vaccines likely too late to make a huge difference. After you factor in Decembers case numbers that is. An estimated 3 million vaccinations were made in December, while it was supposed to be near 20 million.

I wouldn't call 28% particularly close, but I get your point. We are racing against time. The 17% in the 65+ is nowhere near herd immunity, and those are the ones who would obviously most benefit from the vaccine. 

[Quixotic1]

1 hour ago, 40westwx said:

I love it when I post good news about the corona virus.. like.. Hey.. not as many people died as we expected.. 

and people are like "shut up you liar.. so many people died.. its so sad and tragic.. people are dying everywhere.. stop lying"

If only you would join them.

[BuffaloWeather]

14 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

I wouldn't call 28% particularly close, but I get your point. We are racing against time. The 17% in the 65+ is nowhere near herd immunity, and those are the ones who would obviously most benefit from the vaccine. 

Agreed, just saying the USA leadership completely failed in their response. Meanwhile Australia and New Zealand are nearly completely back to normal. I watched a bunch of videos with thousands in the streets celebrating new years without masks on. Would be pretty nice right now to watch next years first Bills playoff game in 25 years in person. Wish we responded to this better. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Put your tin hats on, second 40yo gop Congressman this week dead from covid... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-pennsylvania-house-member-dies

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Put your tin hats on, second 40yo gop Congressman this week dead from covid... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-pennsylvania-house-member-dies

Any preexisting? My buddy is having a small surgery and had to get a covid test first. He had one at ECMC, an hour later he got his results and positive. No symptoms at all. I talked to him at the gym a few days ago for about 30 minutes. His masks is always below his nose. Wish me luck fellas.