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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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On 12/7/2020 at 6:55 PM, Luke_Mages said:

Wrong. Name one solar or wind power manufacturer who is t heavily leveraging tax credits. Locally solar city is getting over $750M. FCE, who I did engineering work on, wouldn’t even exist without heavy govt subsidies. They also only exist because of carbon credits as they are now being used to eat carbon emissions from coal and gas power plants. 
I’m not saying keep burning fossil fuels. I think solar and nuclear should be the future with nat gas being used to compensate for load demands. (Solar and nuclear can’t adjust fast enough.)

Total wind and solar subsidies in the u.s. are pennies. Show my a pie chart of the federal budget and you won’t see solar and wind on it at all

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2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Total wind and solar subsidies in the u.s. are pennies. Show my a pie chart of the federal budget and you won’t see solar and wind on it at all

I don’t believe federal is the issue. Every project I’ve worked on has been state subsidies, and without state money none of the projects would have happened. Like I said show me a solar or wind company that was able to startup without help. 

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8 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Total wind and solar subsidies in the u.s. are pennies. Show my a pie chart of the federal budget and you won’t see solar and wind on it at all

I keep forgetting this too...fusion is the future. If Lockheed doesn’t figure it out ITER will. So any investment in industrial solar or wind is wasteD money, and the people who are at the top of these industries know that. Solar and wind are the equivalent to 8 tracks, cds, dvds, Blu-ray’s...

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3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I keep forgetting this too...fusion is the future. If Lockheed doesn’t figure it out ITER will. So any investment in industrial solar or wind is wasteD money, and the people who are at the top of these industries know that. Solar and wind are the equivalent to 8 tracks, cds, dvds, Blu-ray’s...

I've been working in Fusion Research for 18 years now.  A viable fusion power plant is honestly still 50-100 years away (at best).  Tokamaks and shit like that are gimmicks.  A true fusion power plant is an order of magnitude more complex than anything we have conceived this point.  There is a huge need for solar and wind during this long transition period.  We would be best served continuing with fission but taking measures to ensure its safe with a reliable way to dispose of the waste.  

I work with a lot of physicists who don't think a viable fusion power plant will even exist in this century.  It's next level shit.  

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31 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've been working in Fusion Research for 18 years now.  A viable fusion power plant is honestly still 50-100 years away (at best).  Tokamaks and shit like that are gimmicks.  A true fusion power plant is an order of magnitude more complex than anything we have conceived this point.  There is a huge need for solar and wind during this long transition period.  We would be best served continuing with fission but taking measures to ensure its safe with a reliable way to dispose of the waste.  

I work with a lot of physicists who don't think a viable fusion power plant will even exist in this century.  It's next level shit.  

I don’t disagree with you. I just don’t think huge amounts of land should be dedicated to solar and wind. I think rooftop solar should be mandatory like CA and all subsidies for wind removed. I do think we’ll be surprised on time frame for Fusion. Just like with the covid vaccine there’s just too much money at stake. 

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Just now, Luke_Mages said:

I don’t disagree with you. I just don’t think huge amounts of land should be dedicated to solar and wind. I think rooftop solar should be mandatory like CA and all subsidies for wind removed. I do think we’ll be surprised on time frame for Fusion. Just like with the covid vaccine there’s just too much money at stake. 

I'll give you one mind blowing fact about a full scale fusion power plant.  There would be a mandatory stay out zone around plant that would be at least a quarter mile from the plant itself because of the insane amount of neutron fluence from the fusion reaction.  This means that not one single human can be onsite, or even nearby during its operation.  Therefore, a functional fusion power plant will need to be 100 percent automated.  That issue alone pushes the complexity of such a plant into another realm.  Think how pathetic our advancements in robotics are right now relative to where they need to be.  

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'll give you one mind blowing fact about a full scale fusion power plant.  There would be a mandatory stay out zone around plant that would be at least a quarter mile from the plant itself because of the insane amount of neutron fluence from the fusion reaction.  This means that not one single human can be onsite, or even nearby during its operation.  Therefore, a functional fusion power plant will need to be 100 percent automated.  That issue alone pushes the complexity of such a plant into another realm.  Think how pathetic our advancements in robotics are right now relative to where they need to be.  

I work in industrial automation...the fuel cell plants I did work on were completely automated and remotely controlled. The lithium manifacturing plants i worked on were too toxic for anyone to be onsite and also completely automated.  Even this week I’ve been remotely working in Joplin Missouri making program upgrades. I don’t think automating the plant would be a barrier whatsoever. 

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30 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I work in industrial automation...the fuel cell plants I did work on were completely automated and remotely controlled. The lithium manifacturing plants i worked on were too toxic for anyone to be onsite and also completely automated.  Even this week I’ve been remotely working in Joplin Missouri making program upgrades. I don’t think automating the plant would be a barrier whatsoever. 

That's because you don't have the slightest concept of how difficult certain fusion power plant schemes are.  Continue to think you know more about everything.  Here's a pro tip, you don't.

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17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

That's because you don't have the slightest concept of how difficult certain fusion power plant schemes are.  Continue to think you know more about everything.  Here's a pro tip, you don't.

Way to be an ahole. Having an opinion doesn’t mean I think I know more than you on the topic. This is a DISCUSSION board, correct?
Control schemes are repeatable and therefore programmable. The only thing that will need human intervention is refueling. If fusion will require constant human intervention then it simply isn’t feasible. In my experience it’s human intervention that leads to issues with automation.

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37 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Way to be an ahole. Having an opinion doesn’t mean I think I know more than you on the topic. This is a DISCUSSION board, correct?
Control schemes are repeatable and therefore programmable. The only thing that will need human intervention is refueling. If fusion will require constant human intervention then it simply isn’t feasible. In my experience it’s human intervention that leads to issues with automation.

Ok, I agree that was douchey but you are oppressive with your opinions sometimes. I apologize for that. 

Here is what makes a full scale megawatt fusion power plant a massive challenge.  The quarter mile stayout zone I mentioned...is because of an incredible amount of neutrons produced  in the fusion reaction.  This constant fluence of neutrons would destroy any modern circuit board in a matter of minutes.  There are currently no known technologies to deal with the radiation environments of a fusion reactor.  So now we have a fully automated plant running on technology that doesnt even exist.  It's so far beyond current technologies.  

That said, the plasma physics side of this equation is actually even more challenging and still decades away from having a solution.  

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This discussion is fascinating and I know nothing of what you guys are talking about. I am of the opinion that we need renewable energy and we need it quick. Fully renewable within 30 years max...I know its possible to. We just got 3 vaccines done in 9 months...Put the money out there and smart people will get it done.

I feel like automated nuclear energy would be a problem. What happens with a malfunctioning AI/Robot? Is someone on call 24/7 to get there quick enough to fix the problem? I see lots of problems with this type of energy running our entire power grid globally.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Ok, I agree that was douchey but you are oppressive with your opinions sometimes. I'm apologize for that. 

Here is what makes a full scale megawatt fusion power plant a massive challenge.  The quarter mile stayout zone I mentioned...is because of an incredible amount of neutrons produced  in the fusion reaction.  This constant fluence of neutrons would destroy any modern circuit board in a matter of minutes.  There are currently no known technologies to deal with the radiation environments of a fusion reactor.  So now we have a fully automated plant running on technology that doesnt even exist.  It's so far beyond current technologies.  

That said, the plasma physics side of this equation is actually even more challenging and still decades away from having a solution.  

I appreciate the apology. I’m not trying to offend anyone here with my opinions. I just feel strongly that we take a calculated approach to how we handle carbon emissions(and covid) and not swing the pendulum too far one way. 
I know we’re not there yet w the tech for fusion but believe that we will be in our lifetimes. Just look at some of the incredible tech that’s come out and is coming out. I’ve been talking about solid state batteries as the future since college and now it looks like we’re almost there. So let’s put our resources behind something that truly is the future rather than a stopgap. 
I think you’d really appreciate reading “the three body problem” by Cixin Liu. Some of the concepts are way out there but the book really does a great job of highlighting how shortsighted we are wheN it comes to tech. 

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Any good shows you guys watching? I started Vikings a few weeks ago, already in Season 3 and officially hooked, its fantastic. Also finishing up Blacklist(really good first 2 seasons, has fallen off since, too repetitive) and 2 more episodes of the Pandemic Netflix series (Crazy how that was released right before Covid, basically a blue print into it). Season 2 of Mandolorian was the best Star Wars material I've ever watched, cannot wait for Season 3. 

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Delta and Luke, fission IS the gap closer to fusion and the logical choice. There are many techs available and in development that could get us there - if only the mostly faux public fear of nuclear would allow these new plants to be built. Check this out:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/27/136920/the-new-safer-nuclear-reactors-that-might-help-stop-climate-change/

I think we need a serious breakthrough in both solar and battery tech for it to really make a dent. Of course continue using hydro and tidal where it makes sense. Geothermal is interesting, but don't know tons about that. Wind? Sure clean, but ugly and impedes our radar. ;)

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Any good shows you guys watching? I started Vikings a few weeks ago, already in Season 3 and officially hooked, its fantastic. Also finishing up Blacklist(really good first 2 seasons, has fallen off since, too repetitive) and 2 more episodes of the Pandemic Netflix series (Crazy how that was released right before Covid, basically a blue print into it). Season 2 of Mandolorian was the best Star Wars material I've ever watched, cannot wait for Season 3. 

The Undoing

Gomorrah

Project Blue Book

The Wire- I watch the entire series at least once a year

City on a Hill

True Detective

 

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15 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Delta and Luke, fission IS the gap closer to fusion and the logical choice. There are many techs available and in development that could get us there - if only the mostly faux public fear of nuclear would allow these new plants to be built. Check this out:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/27/136920/the-new-safer-nuclear-reactors-that-might-help-stop-climate-change/

I think we need a serious breakthrough in both solar and battery tech for it to really make a dent. Of course continue using hydro and tidal where it makes sense. Geothermal is interesting, but don't know tons about that. Wind? Sure clean, but ugly and impedes our radar. ;)

Im a huge proponent of fission. I wish it didn’t have the stigma. That said, things like Fukushima highlight some pretty egregious shortsightedness in planning and building these plants. I wish we were building more plants across the world right now instead of retiring them. It’s sad. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lots of important games this Sunday for playoff seeding. In terms of teams I want to play in the 1st round

1.) Miami

2.) Cleveland

3.) Indy

4.) Baltimore

5.) Tennessee 

 

I agree with you in that order, but there's a big drop off in my confidence after the first three.

I think to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, you are going to have to beat the Chiefs.

But getting there via the Titans or especially the Ravens is going to be very tough.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cny rider said:

 

I agree with you in that order, but there's a big drop off in my confidence after the first three.

I think to make the Super Bowl from the AFC, you are going to have to beat the Chiefs.

But getting there via the Titans or especially the Ravens is going to be very tough.

 

 

Those teams doesn't matter cause New York Giants is going to win superbowl this year folks! 

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