Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[DeltaT13]

Pretty thorough article that confirms that mask mandates do indeed work. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html?action=click&module=Top+Stories&pgtype=Homepage&fbclid=IwAR0p5mdHa501xmqGXOxYv6FjX1GK0iHXDDZKl09F3tkU2488apNQiGlhB_E

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Just now, DeltaT13 said:

So if we stop testing this goes away immediately?  Fascinating stuff here. 

Lol that's not what he's saying.

Hes simply saying that the better testing is showing the spread more accurately. This is a good thing as it might mean that mortality is lower than expected because more people were infected in the beginning than reported.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

I'm in favor of a national masks mandate not a national lockdown, just my 2 pennies lol

Some of the people in these rural states are probably not listening to their governors lol

I'd be good with that as long as its as crazy as what PA did with masks in your own house.

[DeltaT13]

10 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Lol that's not what he's saying.

Hes simply saying that the better testing is showing the spread more accurately. This is a good thing as it might mean that mortality is lower than expected because more people were infected in the beginning than reported.

The “we have more cases because we are testing more” might be the single most mind boggling statement during this whole thing.  If we are finding more cases because of more testing it only confirms that this thing is more out of control than we realized. You can test a billion people and if no one has it your numbers will be zero (I know that sounds obvious but apparently it isn’t).  Testing only confirms the existing problem. 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Lol that's not what he's saying.

Hes simply saying that the better testing is showing the spread more accurately. This is a good thing as it might mean that mortality is lower than expected because more people were infected in the beginning than reported.

I can’t believe this is so difficult for people to grasp. As I already stated the actually confirmed cases in March-may before testing ramped up is likely around where were at today. Initial research revealed likely cases were 5-10 times those confirmed. Now we’re probably around 3-5 times confirmed case numbers with increased testing capacity. In no way does it mean if you stop testing the virus disappears. Not really sure how anyone can even draw that conclusion...

[BuffaloWeather]

Confirmed Covid cases is around 12 million in the USA. Actual Covid cases is likely somewhere around 4-8 times that number. I’d say 60-70 million people have been infected already. It’s making it’s way through the population quickly just like the 1919 epidemic did in the 2nd wave. Vaccines are likely a little too late. 

[DeltaT13]

5 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I'd be good with that as long as its as crazy as what PA did with masks in your own house.

The masks in your own house states that it’s only necessary if you are bringing strangers into the mix.  I know it sounds crazy but it’s honestly the right thing to do. If one of my neighbors comes over for something we mask up. If I go help the elderly woman next store with her computer I mask up.  They aren’t saying wear a mask in your house all the time, just when intermingling with others.  It’s obviously not enforceable but the premise is sound.  
 

This whole thing sucks. Some of you act like we are all doing this for fun or to stick it to the right. It’s just not true. We are all trying to figure out how to beat this. It’s a shame it’s not a team effort. 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The we have more cases because we are testing more might be the single most mind boggling statement during this whole thing.  If we are finding more cases because of more testing it only confirms that this thing is more out of control than we realized. You can test a billion people and if no one has it your numbers will be zero (I know that sounds obvious but apparently it isn’t).  Testing only confirms the existing problem. 

Ascertainment was like 1 in 10 to 15 in March/April but more like 1 in 2 to 6 now. You do have to apply this information to make more sense of the case graphs. We've finally overtaken wave 1 imo if you apply this bias. So id say the current wave is the biggest followed by wave 1 then followed by the summer wave. This also aligns well with hospitalizations. None of the prescribed treatments in widespread use do anything to keep people out of hospital. The CDC data is delayed so hospitalization are higher in wave 3 than shown.

 

[MJO812]

 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The masks in your own house states that it’s only necessary if you are bringing strangers into the mix.  I know it sounds crazy but it’s honestly the right thing to do. If one of my neighbors comes over for something we mask up. If I go help the elderly woman next store with her computer I mask up.  They aren’t saying wear a mask in your house all the time, just when intermingling with others.  It’s obviously not enforceable but the premise is sound.  
 

This whole thing sucks. Some of you act like we are all doing this for fun or to stick it to the right. It’s just not true. We are all trying to figure out how to beat this. It’s a shame it’s not a team effort. 

Agree!...and well written. If this had been a team effort from the beginning it  is likely the worse would already be behind us.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

47 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ascertainment was like 1 in 10 to 15 in March/April but more like 1 in 2 to 6 now. You do have to apply this information to make more sense of the case graphs. We've finally overtaken wave 1 imo if you apply this bias. So id say the current wave is the biggest followed by wave 1 then followed by the summer wave. This also aligns well with hospitalizations. None of the prescribed treatments in widespread use do anything to keep people out of hospital. The CDC data is delayed so hospitalization are higher in wave 3 than shown.

 

Good info. I do think that aspirin use and other homeopathic treatments have helped reduce hospitalization, and mortality has been reduced due to better treatment of those hospitalized. 

[MacChump]

26 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Good info. I do think that aspirin use and other homeopathic treatments have helped reduce hospitalization, and mortality has been reduced due to better treatment of those hospitalized. 

lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

5 minutes ago, MacChump said:

lol

Stuff like anti virals and anti coagulants, maybe homeopathic is the wrong term. 

[cny rider]

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Schools have been working so very hard to stay open. My school has been open all year with the option of students doing virtual. Almost all have chosen in-person and are so thankful. As I sit here during transition time, I think sometimes the students don't realize how fortunate they are to be in person...but I think deep inside they are SO happy to be here.

I'm impressed, I wish we lived in your district.

Here we had a delayed opening, now 2 day a week in person instruction and the district cancels classes at the drop of a hat.

It seems like they take every possible opportunity to NOT have school here.

I want my kids in school 5 days a week and the data on low case rates and transmission in school age children supports doing that.

[MacChump]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Stuff like anti virals and anti coagulants, maybe homeopathic is the wrong term. 

yes, homeopathy is quackery...anti-virals and whatnot, sure...

[brentrich]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Confirmed Covid cases is around 12 million in the USA. Actual Covid cases is likely somewhere around 4-8 times that number. I’d say 60-70 million people have been infected already. It’s making it’s way through the population quickly just like the 1919 epidemic did in the 2nd wave. Vaccines are likely a little too late. 

Yeah it's going to get worse after thanksgiving and Christmas then it will be too late for people to have vaccines since almost everybody have the virus. 

[Flying MXZ]

23 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I'm impressed, I wish we lived in your district.

Here we had a delayed opening, now 2 day a week in person instruction and the district cancels classes at the drop of a hat.

It seems like they take every possible opportunity to NOT have school here.

I want my kids in school 5 days a week and the data on low case rates and transmission in school age children supports doing that.

My kids (middle and high school) are on their second week of full time in school and it's going good so far. Elementary has been every day almost since the beginning.  A little interruption for a day or 2 (because of teachers, not kids) so far but they have been there the vast majority of days.  The kids learn so much more in school vs. online it's well worth any additional risk of being there.  

[StormfanaticInd]

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Stuff like anti virals and anti coagulants, maybe homeopathic is the wrong term. 

We just started to get approval for antibody therapy and Remdesevir has been only given in hospital until recently. So there should be almost no difference in the ratio of infections to hospitalization as a whole. 

[DeltaT13]

What’s going on in Erie county?  802 new cases today . That seems crazy 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

What’s going on in Erie county?  802 new cases today . That seems crazy 

From yesterdays presser

[BuffaloWeather]

16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

What’s going on in Erie county?  802 new cases today . That seems crazy 

[DeltaT13]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Man oh man, with thanksgiving next week this is setting up for the perfect storm. I’m hoping people make good choices. 

[brentrich]

Do you think Monroe country will go in orange zone soon? 

[wolfie09]

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker was among the governors who met with President-elect Joe Biden Thursday to discuss improving coordination between the federal and state responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Baker was one of 10 governors who took part in the video conference as part of the National Governors Association's executive committee. A few, like Baker, are Republicans.

Biden promised the governors that, when he takes office, he and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris will "both want to work with you and the Congress on a bipartisan basis to make sure you get the resources you need."

Biden's transition team had announced Wednesday that Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris plan Thursday to meet virtually with the group in Wilmington, Delaware.

Baker serves on the executive committee, which is chaired by NGA Chairman Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor.

 

https://m.facebook.com/joebiden/videos/688717022020637/

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

9 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

The “we have more cases because we are testing more” might be the single most mind boggling statement during this whole thing.  If we are finding more cases because of more testing it only confirms that this thing is more out of control than we realized. You can test a billion people and if no one has it your numbers will be zero (I know that sounds obvious but apparently it isn’t).  Testing only confirms the existing problem. 

But how out of control was the first wave?  If you go by the “positivity rate” that Cuomo uses as one of his main metrics then we still have not eclipsed the severity of the first wave.  The weekly rate in April was running 20-30% which is mind boggling now as a 4% rolling average technically triggers a red zone.  We have no idea how many people actually had COVID back in the Feb-May time frame due to the lack of testing.  It very well could be similar to where we are now.  For the entire month of April less than 15,000 total tests were done.  Last week alone total testing was over 42,000.  It’s a valid point that If you increase your testing 10 fold your going to see a similar increase in the number of total tests coming back positive.

I’m not doubting we are surging into the expected second wave now, but we just don’t have the data to compare it against the first wave. 

These are Erie County numbers I am referencing, so maybe we are just an anomaly here.  I mean Cuomo did say we weren’t impacted by COVID here during the first wave so...

 

 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

I don’t hear much talk anymore about the anti body testing rates.  The county hasn’t posted an updated chart in the past month, but this is interesting... It’s hard to draw a full conclusion on these rates depending on just how random this testing is.  Does it include people who at one point had a positive COVID test and then got tested for antibodies after?  Or is it more people who think they had it, or had possible exposure, but never got a COVID test?  Going out on a limb to say that the first few weeks of these tests may have been the most random sample.  Those first weeks would average out to a roughly 7.5% positive rate for antibodies.  Compare that to our current daily positivity rate for COVID testing which is between 7 and 8% and I would say it’s fair to believe current case rates could be similar to case rates we couldn’t measure back in the Feb-April time frame.

Thoughts on this?

 

[TugHillMatt]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From yesterdays presser

This ticked me off. Our delightful governor pretty much shaming Upstate New York for "not taking this seriously." We have been extremely patient in our "not so important to him" world of Upstate New York. In talking with friends and family in other states, we Upstaters have been dealing with this for pretty much longer than any other area of the country, and much more respectfully towards our fellow citizens. He should thank us all for not rioting and waving "our guns" at him like other states have at their governors. I'm sure he'll somehow find a way to blame us for the downfall of the state's economy, along with the "racism of Covid." As a fairly new resident of this state, I am boggled as to how Upstate New York has NOT seceded from New York City and its suburbs. There are just too many differences between SE New York state and Upstate. This is even more proof that NYC and its politics holds us down. Way to alienate the rest of "your" state, governor.

[DeltaT13]

11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

This ticked me off. Our delightful governor pretty much shaming Upstate New York for "not taking this seriously." We have been extremely patient in our "not so important to him" world of Upstate New York. In talking with friends and family in other states, we Upstaters have been dealing with this for pretty much longer than any other area of the country, and much more respectfully towards our fellow citizens. He should thank us all for not rioting and waving "our guns" at him like other states have at their governors. I'm sure he'll somehow find a way to blame us for the downfall of the state's economy, along with the "racism of Covid." As a fairly new resident of this state, I am boggled as to how Upstate New York has NOT seceded from New York City and its suburbs. There are just too many differences between SE New York state and Upstate. This is even more proof that NYC and its politics holds us down. Way to alienate the rest of "your" state, governor.

If we seceded we’d be the poorest state in the nation for our population size. NYC completely props us up and funds the dying upstate rust belt. Monroe county is one of the poorest counties in the nation for its size. Erie and Onondaga are the other two biggest counties and all three run massive deficits every single year (and we are the “good” counties upstate). We get a hell of a lot more money and resources from NYC than they get from us. I’m always shocked this isn’t obvious. Seceding would be absolute suicide for upstate.  

[wolfie09]

If we split it up like Maine and Nebraska upstate would be worth a point or two..(obviously joking) lol

Counties like Westchester are in NY STATE not NYC so you couldn't just segregate them lol

If you look at the 2018 election cuomo would of still come mighty close to winning even without NYC because all the population centers in upstate side blue..

He took home wins in 13 of the state's 15 most populous counties, including each of the city's five boroughs; Erie (home to Buffalo), Monroe (home to Rochester), Onondaga (home to Syracuse) and Albany; and the four major suburban counties of Westchester, Rockland, Nassau and Suffolk.