OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:36 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I don't see how you think it isn't politically driven though. Vaccine by Nov 1st (election Nov 3) I mean look at Pelosi with no mask in the salon. Covid is most certainly a bad illness. 2-4 times worse then the yearly flu. However, states are keeping businesses closed and not allowing them to operate freely and PPP has dried up. The repercussions of this are going to be far worse than the illness itself. Expand The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:42 PM, OSUmetstud said: The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. Expand The current projected IFR from the CDC for COVID is 0.65, Flu is 0.10 (although H3N2 is higher) ....so about 6.5x based on that projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:49 PM, vortmax said: The current projected IFR from the CDC for COVID is 0.65, Flu is 0.10 (although H3N2 is higher) ....so about 6.5x based on that projection. Expand The flu number is symptomatic fatality rate, not infected fatality rate, the IFR is closer to 0.06-0.07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:42 PM, OSUmetstud said: The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. Expand Globally the worst flu years have killed up to 650k people. What will we be at by end of year 1-1.2 million? It's not 6-8 times worse globally. You cannot simply use USA as a dataset. USA outbreak has been far worse then global death rates. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Globally the worst flu years have killed up to 600k people. What will we be at by end of year 1-1.2 million? It's not 6-8 times worse globally. You cannot simply use USA as a dataset. USA outbreak has been far worse then global death rates. Expand I mean wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:55 PM, OSUmetstud said: I mean wtf... Expand News at 11, people die when they get sick. We're all going to die my friend. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 We've been talking about the US the whole freaking time. The IFR is ten times higher, it's twice as contagious. The US, because of it being a richer and more developed country will tend to better in counting deaths than poorer countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:56 PM, BuffaloWeather said: News at 11, people die when they get sick. We're all going to die my friend. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year Expand You are intellectually dishonest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:57 PM, OSUmetstud said: We've been talking about the US the whole freaking time. The IFR is ten times higher, it's twice as contagious. The US, because of it being a richer and more developed country will tend to better in counting deaths than poorer countries. Expand Excess deaths globally are not 6-8 times the worst flu seasons. It would have to be between 3,900,000-5,200,000. Those are the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:58 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Excess deaths globally are not 6-8 times the worst flu seasons. It would have to be between 3,900,000-5,200,000. Those are the facts. Expand I'm sure that they are accurately counting deaths in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:00 PM, OSUmetstud said: I'm sure that they are accurately counting deaths in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Expand How do they come up with the yearly flu estimates? Don't they use excess deaths in nations that are poorer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 650k people die from the flu globally each year (a bad flu season) and that is with a vaccine...Imagine what it would be with no vaccine? 2-3+ times that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:04 PM, BuffaloWeather said: How do they come up with the yearly flu estimates? Don't they use excess deaths in nations that are poorer? Expand They do, but those aren't available yet in many countries. You know it is possible to be anti-lockdown/business closure while being honest about the virus is and isn't, scientifically speaking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Went for my yearly physical monday. Asked my doc to do an antibody test for covid. Surprisingly came back positive. My doc said that i definitely had covid. I am 58 and a smoker otherwise in good health. I had no symptoms. Is it possible that my doc is wrong and results were a false positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:43 PM, binbisso said: Went for my yearly physical monday. Asked my doc to do an antibody test for covid. Surprisingly came back positive. My doc said that i definitely had covid. I am 58 and a smoker otherwise in good health. I had no symptoms. Is it possible the my doc is wrong and results were a false positive? Expand Could be a false positive or you could have just had an asympomatic case. Given where you're from it's more likely to be a true positive than a false positive imo given the prevalence of the infection in downstate NY and the better antibody tests that are available now compared to a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:46 PM, OSUmetstud said: Could be a false positive or you could have just had an asympomatic case. Given where you're from it's more likely to be a true positive than a false positive imo given the prevalence of the infection in downstate NY and the better antibody tests that are available now compared to a few months ago. Expand Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said: Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last Expand Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said: Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last Expand My friend in California got tested twice, negative both times. Had every symptom in the book. Antibody test 2 weeks after feeling better and positive. Another from Buffalo fever of 2 weeks, 2 negatives and 3rd time positive. Testing needs to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said: Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last Expand I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. Expand The Rocks entire family got it. Him and his wife had a rough time, but the kids just a little sore throat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:54 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. Expand There's been 2 documented cases. Looks rare so far, so that's good. Also, if you get reinfected, but the reinfection is less severe than the first time because of some acquired T-cell immunity from the first infection, that would be good news, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:54 PM, BuffaloWeather said: The Rocks entire family got it. Him and his wife had a rough time, but the kids just a little sore throat. Expand Yeah, I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 https://buffalonews.com/news/local/state-and-regional/with-wnys-covid-19-rate-the-highest-in-the-state-poloncarz-warns-of-new-shutdown/article_f14649f2-ed34-11ea-814f-df41d168f8be.html?fbclid=IwAR0XQUhe9fvZmu08NEj8gBJhOXAtQEYD4mRMTq9tgDoDp7pVkwQcDDnAix4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. Expand On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. Expand Yeah that's what makes covid-19 scary we know that about 80% of the people who get it have no or mild symptoms however why do some healthy young and middle-aged people get very sick from it there has to be other factors that we don't know yet that are causing this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:54 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. Expand My doctor said it takes about 3 to 4 weeks for the body to produce antibodies that a test results can detect. It's probably very likely I caught this between February and April as that's when it was the worst here that would put me at 4 to 6 months with antibodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 2:36 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah, that's because it's uncommon (not never) to be listed and influenza tests aren't done all the time, which why the CDC uses data and modeling to estimate the flu burden yearly. Do you review all US death certificates? We're testing for COVID a great deal because we're in the middle of pandemic. Expand Covid is on every death certificate where the patient tested positive because it affects the level of care and how the hospital is paid for the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 3:00 PM, OSUmetstud said: I'm sure that they are accurately counting deaths in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Expand That argument is moving the goalposts. The same issue would prevalent for flu related deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 6:35 PM, Luke_Mages said: That argument is moving the goalposts. The same issue would prevalent for flu related deaths. Expand Were in the midst of the pandemic. The excess death data is not available from many countries. Flu estimates are done when these data are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 6:34 PM, Luke_Mages said: Covid is on every death certificate where the patient tested positive because it affects the level of care and how the hospital is paid for the case. Expand The cdc standard is that covid contributed to the death actually. Its not just a positive test before death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 On 9/3/2020 at 6:35 PM, Luke_Mages said: That argument is moving the goalposts. The same issue would prevalent for flu related deaths. Expand I mean its hilarious. We were talking about covid in the usa for the past few days...discussing usa death certificates and ifr estimates. Richard was the one who threw very preliminary worldwide excess deaths at me as some sort of retort but go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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