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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:36 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I don't see how you think it isn't politically driven though. Vaccine by Nov 1st (election Nov 3) I mean look at Pelosi with no mask in the salon. Covid is most certainly a bad illness. 2-4 times worse then the yearly flu. However, states are keeping businesses closed and not allowing them to operate freely and PPP has dried up. The repercussions of this are going to be far worse than the illness itself. 

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 The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. 

The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. 

The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. 

 

 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:42 PM, OSUmetstud said:

 The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. 

The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. 

The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. 

 

 

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The current projected IFR from the CDC for COVID is 0.65, Flu is 0.10 (although H3N2 is higher) ....so about 6.5x based on that projection. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:42 PM, OSUmetstud said:

 The IFR is about 10 times seasonal flu and it's like twice a contagious. 

The flu on average kills 30K per year, we've lost at least 180K (6 times more) and possibly 250k (8 times more) and it's not done. 

The pelosi thing is just silly political stuff, it's not the same thing as faking death certificates or approving vaccines before they've been properly tested. 

 

 

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Globally the worst flu years have killed up to 650k people. What will we be at by end of year 1-1.2 million? It's not 6-8 times worse globally. You cannot simply use USA as a dataset.  USA outbreak has been far worse then global death rates.

 https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year

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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Globally the worst flu years have killed up to 600k people. What will we be at by end of year 1-1.2 million? It's not 6-8 times worse globally. You cannot simply use USA as a dataset.  USA outbreak has been far worse then global death rates. 

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I mean wtf...

 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:57 PM, OSUmetstud said:

We've been talking about the US the whole freaking time. The IFR is ten times higher, it's twice as contagious. The US, because of it being a richer and more developed country will tend to better in counting deaths than poorer countries. 

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Excess deaths globally are not 6-8 times the worst flu seasons. It would have to be between 3,900,000-5,200,000. Those are the facts. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:04 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

How do they come up with the yearly flu estimates? Don't they use excess deaths in nations that are poorer? 

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They do, but those aren't available yet in many countries. 

You know it is possible to be anti-lockdown/business closure while being honest about the virus is and isn't, scientifically speaking. 

 

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Went for my yearly physical monday. Asked my doc to do an antibody test for covid. Surprisingly came back positive. My doc said that i definitely had covid. I am 58 and a smoker otherwise in good health. I had no symptoms. Is it possible that my doc is wrong and results were a false positive?

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:43 PM, binbisso said:

Went for my yearly physical monday. Asked my doc to do an antibody test for covid. Surprisingly came back positive. My doc said that i definitely had covid. I am 58 and a smoker otherwise in good health. I had no symptoms. Is it possible the my doc is wrong and results were a false positive?

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Could be a false positive or you could have just had an asympomatic case. 

Given where you're from it's more likely to be a true positive than a false positive imo given the prevalence of the infection in downstate NY and the better antibody tests that are available now compared to a few months ago. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:46 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Could be a false positive or you could have just had an asympomatic case. 

Given where you're from it's more likely to be a true positive than a false positive imo given the prevalence of the infection in downstate NY and the better antibody tests that are available now compared to a few months ago. 

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Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said:

Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last

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Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said:

Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last

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My friend in California got tested twice, negative both times. Had every symptom in the book. Antibody test 2 weeks after feeling better and positive. 

Another from Buffalo fever of 2 weeks, 2 negatives and 3rd time positive. Testing needs to improve. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:51 PM, binbisso said:

Yes and good to know the antibody test are better now. I worked right thru as i am in the food industry. My job is in the south bronx one of the hardest hit areas. Just surprised that at my age and i smoke that i had no symptoms. My doc says right now i cant get reinfected but isnt sure how long antibodies will last

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I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. 

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The Rocks entire family got it. Him and his wife had a rough time, but the kids just a little sore throat. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:54 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. 

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There's been 2 documented cases. Looks rare so far, so that's good. 

Also, if you get reinfected, but the reinfection is less severe than the first time because of some acquired T-cell immunity from the first infection, that would be good news, too. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, that's fair. Does seem interesting how disparate the effects are, even in younger and middle-aged people. Metfan is a younger guy and he had symptoms. 

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Yeah that's what makes covid-19 scary we know that about 80% of the people who get it have no or mild symptoms however why do some healthy young and middle-aged people get very sick from it there has to be other factors that we don't know yet that are causing this

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  On 9/3/2020 at 3:54 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe its around 4 months that antibodies last? However, reinfection is pretty rare it seems. 

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My doctor said it takes about 3 to 4 weeks for the body to produce antibodies that a test results can detect. It's probably very likely I caught this between February and April as that's when it was the worst here that would put me at 4 to 6 months with antibodies.

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  On 9/3/2020 at 2:36 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah, that's because it's uncommon (not never) to be listed and influenza tests aren't done all the time, which why the CDC uses data and modeling to estimate the flu burden yearly. Do you review all US death certificates?

We're testing for COVID a great deal because we're in the middle of pandemic. 

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Covid is on every death certificate where the patient tested positive because it affects the level of care and how the hospital is paid for the case. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 6:34 PM, Luke_Mages said:

Covid is on every death certificate where the patient tested positive because it affects the level of care and how the hospital is paid for the case. 

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The cdc standard is that covid contributed to the death actually. Its not just a positive test before death. 

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  On 9/3/2020 at 6:35 PM, Luke_Mages said:

That argument is moving the goalposts. The same issue would prevalent for flu related deaths.

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I mean its hilarious. We were talking about covid in the usa for the past few days...discussing usa death certificates and ifr estimates. Richard was the one who threw very preliminary worldwide excess deaths at me as some sort of retort but go off. 

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