Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[vortmax]

7 minutes ago, WNash said:

I agree, but the executive branch’s extreme secrecy and rejection of any and all oversight is about as far from what the founding fathers intended as can be imagined.

For example, emoluments are explicitly banned by the Constitution, but this administration is fighting accountability for emoluments at every turn: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/trump-to-ask-supreme-court-to-stop-emoluments-lawsuit.html

 

That's the beauty of how our Republic is setup...the executive branch can be as secretive as it wants, yet it's still accountable to the other 2. This POTUS was impeached, there are lawsuits against him, and he has zero authority over the SCOTUS. We the people need to let the process work...is it perfect? No. Does it weed out all corruption? No. Is it the best form of government in this world? I would argue, yes.

[brentrich]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

State beaches  will re open next weekend 

Second wave incoming, get ready!   Remember spring break in Florida when they didn't follow the rules, cases went up quickly so it will be the same cases for beaches in NE and east coast. 

[WNash]

11 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That's the beauty of how our Republic is setup...the executive branch can be as secretive as it wants, yet it's still accountable to the other 2. This POTUS was impeached, there are lawsuits against him, and he has zero authority over the SCOTUS. We the people need to let the process work...is it perfect? No. Does it weed out all corruption? No. Is it the best form of government in this world? I would argue, yes.

You’re minimizing the effect that the prevalence of unitary executive theory among the judiciary and court packing has on Article III oversight. Court packing has also allowed one party to restrict voting and gerrymander to the extent that Article II oversight is greatly hampered.

If our constitutional system can be so easily warped, it’s hard to say it’s all that great. 

[WNash]

2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

You're correct on there being plenty of wealth here in the US...but what about the rest of the world? Shutting down the worlds largest economy is brutal to the rest of the world that doesn't have the wealth to sustain populations for the next year waiting for a vaccine or new treatments.

Lets say we were able to instantly capture all of the wealth that the 1% have (mind you most of this is in investments) and redistribute to the other 99%. That effectively doubles the net wealth of the 99%. How long can you go without a job if your net wealth were doubled right now? The giant influx of buying power would cause inflation to explode as youre now competing with everyone else who just doubled their net worth.

I typically have you on ignore because your rants calling poor people lazy have been so morally noxious, but I figured you were replying to me, so I’ll respond since your points are somewhat substantive.

You’re right that there’s global inequality that dwarfs what goes on in the US, but human beings aren’t organized internationally in a way that can address this. Some countries have been really effective at maintaining a low GINI coefficient, and some have been terrible at it. The only way that people have any chance at fixing this is on the national level. Most of the poorest countries still have high GINI, which is ridiculous, but ultimately this has to be dealt with by each country’s own system.

What people need to survive this pandemic is income replacement, not wealth replacement. And most people don’t need income replacement. Real unemployment is probably in the ballpark of 25-30%, so we don’t need to replace the income of the remaining roughly 2/3rds. The ratio of total personal wealth to total personal income is about 5:1. Conservatively estimated, the top 1% controls roughly 30% of the wealth (about $35 trillion net household worth). Considering that we are replacing only the income of the bottom third, and the 30% decile is about $25k per year, it would only take about $750 billion to replace *all* annual personal income for the bottom third. That’s about three-quarters of one percent of the wealth of the richest 1%. So two years of replacement income for the bottom third is about 1.5% of the wealth of the richest 1%. Let me point out that two times that amount has been spent on that part of the pandemic stimulus that does NOT include the $1200 per person payout.

The fact that it hardly seems possible that so few people own so much doesn’t mean that there’s a problem with my math, it means that there’s an insane problem with the capture of our government by the richest people.

[vortmax]

27 minutes ago, WNash said:

You’re minimizing the effect that the prevalence of unitary executive theory among the judiciary and court packing has on Article III oversight. Court packing has also allowed one party to restrict voting and gerrymander to the extent that Article II oversight is greatly hampered.

If our constitutional system can be so easily warped, it’s hard to say it’s all that great. 

Yet with the party swapping that regularly occurs in the exec branch via the democratic vote, it tends to balance out the judiciary. I would argue that the majority of the judiciary branch as a whole, has been appointed by Democrats. This admin is balancing that out. The SCOTUS is the same, for the most part, but has shifted right due to timing of new appointments.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

5 minutes ago, WNash said:

I typically have you on ignore because your rants calling poor people lazy have been so morally noxious, but I figured you were replying to me, so I’ll respond since your points are somewhat substantive.

You’re right that there’s global inequality that dwarfs what goes on in the US, but human beings aren’t organized internationally in a way that can address this. Some countries have been really effective at maintaining a low GINI coefficient, and some have been terrible at it. The only way that people have any chance at fixing this is on the national level. Most of the poorest countries still have high GINI, which is ridiculous, but ultimately this has to be dealt with by each country’s own system.

What people need to survive this pandemic is income replacement, not wealth replacement. And most people don’t need income replacement. Real unemployment is probably in the ballpark of 25-30%, so we don’t need to replace the income of the remaining roughly 2/3rds. The ratio of total personal wealth to total personal income is about 5:1. Conservatively estimated, the top 1% controls roughly 30% of the wealth (about $35 trillion net household worth). Considering that we are replacing only the income of the bottom third, and the 30% decile is about $25k per year, it would only take about $750 billion to replace *all* annual personal income for the bottom third. That’s about three-quarters of one percent of the wealth of the richest 1%. So two years of replacement income for the bottom third is about 1.5% of the wealth of the richest 1%. Let me point out that two times that amount has been spent on that part of the pandemic stimulus that does NOT include the $1200 per person payout.

The fact that it hardly seems possible that so few people own so much doesn’t mean that there’s a problem with my math, it means that there’s an insane problem with the capture of our government by the richest people.

Don’t question your math at all, I took it even more extreme, suggesting that the top 1% own 50% of the wealth. 
The issue I have with your theory is that in enables people to not want to do better for themselves. I’m sure that some of those people in the bottom third are hard workers, but as you point out at the beginning of your post it is my experience that if you’re in the bottom third and you’re not disabled it’s because you aren’t working hard enough. 
You simply can’t fix wealth inequality by trying to take it away from the top. Just won’t happen. So change careers, work harder, self improve. That’s the way out of the bottom third. 

[WNash]

6 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Yet with the party swapping that regularly occurs in the exec branch via the democratic vote, it tends to balance out the judiciary. I would argue that the majority of the judiciary branch as a whole, has been appointed by Democrats. This admin is balancing that out. The SCOTUS is the same, for the most part, but has shifted right due to timing of new appointments.

The fact that you’re omitting what allowed Republicans to maintain control of the court with ultimate authority is a pretty good indication that you are making a bad faith, non-objective argument.

[WNash]

9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Don’t question your math at all, I took it even more extreme, suggesting that the top 1% own 50% of the wealth. 
The issue I have with your theory is that in enables people to not want to do better for themselves. I’m sure that some of those people in the bottom third are hard workers, but as you point out at the beginning of your post it is my experience that if you’re in the bottom third and you’re not disabled it’s because you aren’t working hard enough. 
You simply can’t fix wealth inequality by trying to take it away from the top. Just won’t happen. So change careers, work harder, self improve. That’s the way out of the bottom third. 

Yeah, this is the “nice” version of why I have you on ignore. The version with the cruel language and the name-calling is not something I need to see. But I do appreciate that you’re not arguing the math.

 

EDIT: I should add that you have a very fair point in your slippery slope argument about international poverty and where do attempts at economic fairness stop. I should say that we can model fairness for other countries, but I should also add that our predatory economic system causes some of that overseas inequality too.

[DeltaT13]

49 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Second wave incoming, get ready!   Remember spring break in Florida when they didn't follow the rules, cases went up quickly so it will be the same cases for beaches in NE and east coast. 

I actually recall almost no fallout from the spring breakers. Tens of thousands of people were out there, I saw very little evidence of any hot spots related to spring breakers. As I’ve stated many times. There is no safer place than a beach. Parks and beaches should be open. 

[vortmax]

19 minutes ago, WNash said:

The fact that you’re omitting what allowed Republicans to maintain control of the court with ultimate authority is a pretty good indication that you are making a bad faith, non-objective argument.

The fact that you think the Democratic party wouldn't do the exact same thing is a pretty good indication that you are making a bad faith, non-objective argument.

[WNash]

7 minutes ago, vortmax said:

The fact that you think the Democratic party wouldn't do the exact same thing is a pretty good indication that you are making a bad faith, non-objective argument.

I think the Democrats are generally awful, so you’re incorrect

[vortmax]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:09 PM, vortmax said:

Moderna's phase 3 COVID RNA vaccine is planned to start summertime. If successful, with our accelerated schedule, may see a vaccine by Q1 2021. Maybe earlier, who knows.

There's another vaccine being developed in China which is more like the typical inactivated virus ones we see with the Flu. Not sure I would trust any vaccine coming out of China though. 

Operation Warp Speed. Let's do this...

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said earlier this month that it was "doable if things fall in the right place" to have a vaccine by January.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

This is just so ridiculous. 
https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/15/ecmc-to-lay-off-70-seek-furloughs/

The entire state should never have been put on lockdown. NYC yes. Not the entire state. Hindsight will prove this to be one of the biggest blunders in modern history. 

[wolfie09]

Heros fund was passed as expected, obviously we will see some negotiating.. From I read expect a package of around 1-1.5 trillion and not until the end of may/early June..

[DeltaT13]

3 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

This is just so ridiculous. 
https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/15/ecmc-to-lay-off-70-seek-furloughs/

The entire state should never have been put on lockdown. NYC yes. Not the entire state. Hindsight will prove this to be one of the biggest blunders in modern history. 

No one knew what to expect, I find it hard to blame anyone with this thing.  I think erring on the side of caution was the only logical way to respond.  A blunder implies there was an obvious better way to handle it, but we overlooked it.   Would be nice if hospitals could have fully segregated wards so that electives can continue.  Perhaps we will see specialized hospitals set aside for pandemics someday.  Moth balled.  

Too much on the line to roll those dice this time, we just werent ready.

[BuffaloWeather]

Coronavirus antibody test with 99% success rate approved for use in Europe

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-antibody-test-with-99-percent-success-rate-approved-for-use-in-europe-626525

[BuffaloWeather]

Had a client come in today that didn't receive PPP money and are hoping to get it before the 2nd round drys up. If he doesn't a 3 generation business is going to go out of business.

[wolfie09]

My theory is that the Houston Astros started the spread of the coronavirus..

[BuffaloWeather]

Have been looking up how many people die in USA from various factors and came across the stat from CDC that smoking kills 1315 people per day in just the USA. That's insane. I wonder what it was in the 80s/90s? 2-3K+?

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm

[CNY_WX]

Cuomo just opened horse race tracks, without fans, and Watkins Glen Speedway, without fans, for the summer.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

Cuomo just opened horse race tracks, without fans, and Watkins Glen Speedway, without fans, for the summer.

Has anyone said anything about the state fair ? I always go there every year with my family. 

[OSUmetstud]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Has anyone said anything about the state fair ? I always go there every year with my family. 

It attracts a million people/year. It's not happening. 

[wolfie09]

Major League Baseball's ambitious return-to-play plans include processing upward of 10,000 COVID-19 tests per week, overhauling stadiums and in-game settings to encourage social distancing, and rigorous rules intended to prevent against the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a draft of the league's health-and-safety manual obtained by ESPN.

The document, which is missing multiple sections, will swell beyond its robust 67 pages when complete. In this form, it is still a highly detailed road map that would require a staggering amount of effort to complete before the league's hopeful mid-June return to facilities and early-July Opening Day.

Even with the manual's specificity, multiple officials who have seen it expressed to ESPN skepticism about the ability to implement it, especially in a short time frame. While its thoroughness in some areas is apparent, a number of questions are left unanswered -- an issue that will be addressed as the league and MLB Players Association continue negotiating their own return-to-play deal and MLB solicits feedback on the protocol.

 

For now, it covers testing, travel, in-stadium adjustments, on-field changes and a wide array of other issues. Players and other team personnel not participating in the game would sit in the stands, separated by at least 6 feet. They would apply the same distancing standards to the national anthem. High-fives, fist bumps and hugs would be prohibited under the plan, as would spitting, tobacco use and chewing sunflower seeds. Pitchers would have their own set of balls to throw during bullpen sessions. Players would be discouraged from showering at stadiums after games and would not be allowed to take taxis or use ride-sharing apps on the road.

The Athletic first reported the specifics of the memo.

For all of the shock at how baseball -- and the lives of those playing it -- may look, the health protocols underpin the manual. MLB would break individuals into safety tiers, with Tier 1 (players, on-field personnel and medical personnel) and Tier 2 (other "essential" employees, including front-office officials) receiving consistent testing. Around 100 individuals would comprise the top two tiers, with other personnel who don't necessarily interact with them, such as cleaning crews and groundskeepers, in Tier 3.

Under the plan, players would undergo multiple temperature screenings daily, including at home before coming to the stadium. MLB would test Tier 1 and 2 individuals for the coronavirus multiple times a week, according to the document, calling testing "a critical component" of the game's return. Family members would be tested too.

Additionally, the document said the league "will offer free diagnostic and antibody/serology testing ... for healthcare workers or other first responders in the Clubs' home cities as a public service."

Those who test positive would be immediately quarantined, though the document does not specify what would happen if Tier 1 or 2 individuals -- who are the only ones allowed to travel -- get diagnosed with COVID-19 on the road. The return from a positive test would require two negative tests, no symptoms and a go-ahead from team medical personnel.

Though the document says "high-risk individuals" who could be at risk if they are infected with COVID-19 can opt out of playing, it does not address others with similar concerns

Players would be required to wear masks everywhere except on the field and during strenuous activities. Their activities outside the stadium would change too, particularly on the road, where they would not be allowed to leave the hotel to eat at restaurants. Even at home, Tier 1 and 2 individuals would be discouraged from going to crowded bars.

"MLB will not formally restrict the activities of Covered Individuals when they are away from work," the document said, "but will expect the members of each team to ensure that they all act responsibly. The careless actions of a single member of the team places the entire team (and their families) at risk, and teams should agree on their own off-field code of conduct for themselves and their family members to minimize the risk to the team."

The plan would call for a three-phase spring training, in which pitchers and catchers would arrive, then position players. The third phase would include a limited number of exhibition games.

[CNY_WX]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Has anyone said anything about the state fair ? I always go there every year with my family. 

I think Cuomo said it’s too early to make a decision on the fair.

[BuffaloWeather]

Antibody tests reveal coronavirus might have arrived in WA in December

https://mynorthwest.com/1875726/report-antibody-test-coronavirus-washington-december/

[BuffaloWeather]

- mid April, Georgia notices it has peaked
- Georgia decides to open in order to give local businesses a chance to survive this if they want
- experts have a field day
- "in a few weeks it's going to be a blood bath"
- "this is a mass human sacrifice"
- "what are they doing"
- "there will be bodies in the streets"
- even evil orange man says way too soon
- 3-weeks have passed
- hospitalizations are the lowest they've been since early April
- ventilators in use are way down, so much so that most hospitals have gotten back to elective surgeries
- no major spike of new cases yet
- cases actually have gone down 12%
- death rate is down

[OSUmetstud]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

- mid April, Georgia notices it has peaked
- Georgia decides to open in order to give local businesses a chance to survive this if they want
- experts have a field day
- "in a few weeks it's going to be a blood bath"
- "this is a mass human sacrifice"
- "what are they doing"
- "there will be bodies in the streets"
- even evil orange man says way too soon
- 3-weeks have passed
- hospitalizations are the lowest they've been since early April
- ventilators in use are way down, so much so that most hospitals have gotten back to elective surgeries
- no major spike of new cases yet
- cases actually have gone down 12%
- death rate is down

The decision at the time was not based on scientific guidelines, but people's behaviors are still driving lower transmission rates. I hope that all these places, both open and closed have been using their time wisely to gear up and increase testing and tracing capacity for the next wave of infections. 

[MJO812]

Western NY and Captial region are going to re open.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

The decision at the time was not based on scientific guidelines, but people's behaviors are still driving lower transmission rates. I hope that all these places, both open and closed have been using their time wisely to gear up and increase testing and tracing capacity for the next wave of infections. 

How is this data tracked? Satellites? Seems way too niche to be accurate to me.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

How is this data tracked? Satellites?

I’m pretty sure mobile cell phone data.