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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

wolfie09

By wolfie09,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They upped it 

20200424_071324.jpg

If you think we’re only going to have 67,000 covid deaths your out of your mind. We’re already over 50,000 and still losing people at 1700-2500 a day with many areas yet to have reach peak. We’ll have 67,000 by mid may at the latest and only continue to grow from there. I don’t think there’s anyway we come out of this “first wave” with less than 100,000 deaths. 
 

as far as injecting ourselves with disinfectant, Lysol just came out with a warning which really is sad people can’t use common sense enough to realize this is the dumbest thing the president has ever said. 

https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/president-trump-says-heat-humidity-could-help-fight-virus/507-608c0892-f577-4d1c-ae34-6ebe61514807

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, WesterlyWx said:

If you think we’re only going to have 67,000 cocos deaths your out of your mind. We’ll have 67,000 by mid may at the latest and only continue to grow from there. I don’t think there’s anyway we come out of this “first wave” with less than 100,000 deaths. 
 

as far as injecting ourselves with disinfectant, Lysol just came out with a warning which really is sad people can’t use common sense enough to realize this is the dumbest thing the president has ever said. 

https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/president-trump-says-heat-humidity-could-help-fight-virus/507-608c0892-f577-4d1c-ae34-6ebe61514807

I agree

This model did have 100k deaths at one point but downgraded it.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

When everything all started going down...and working in a school...any time a colleague asked how I was doing, I told them I just wanted to spray Lysol down my throat, but then I would be dead.

I'm going to try the Lysol next.  Been looking for a way to shoot UV light inside my body. 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cuomo is now worried about a 2nd wave.

He also stated that  this country  acted 2 months too late. 

he's right about those things.  This isn't a Dem/GOP observation, but I hope that he internalizes the fact that Government at all levels but especially federal, were warned by 10 separate internal reports over the past 16 years about the US being woefully unprepared for a pandemic...and basically nothing was done.  Which ensured a late and panicked response when a serious pandemic did happen.  We were lucky that in 2009 H1N1 Swine flu and the previous SARS outbreaks weren't as virulent or transmissible as this thing is.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

So if only 50% of the population in the US gets this we should expect about 1M deaths... :cry:

Yep even if these rates are correct and it takes 60 percent of population to get herd immunity your still talking more than 1 million dead. 1,344,000 dead to get herd immunity with the deaths rates based on those test results. 

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Buckeyes_Suck

Buckeyes_Suck

Posted
Posted
Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

How many would have died anyways from flu/pneumonia/old age/cancer/heart disease? Impossible to decipher this. 

Very true, especially considering how much higher the mortality rate is with this when comorbidities are present like diabetes and obesity.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How many would have died anyways from flu/pneumonia/old age/cancer/heart disease? Impossible to decipher this. 

Good reasons to think about this.  The cdc instructed that anyone who tests positive with corona virus and then dies, the cause of death is corona virus.  Which is odd. An asymptomatic person can “die of covid” even though they had a heart attack?  

I read an article which I cannot now find where a number of doctors wondered where the heart attack and stroke victims they normally see in ERs went. They said they thought these victims must have stayed home and died there instead because they didn’t want the virus to infect them at the hospital.  I need to find the article because maybe the doctors were looking at statistics and noticed causes of death from the normal, more common factors were down.

The numbers are messy I’m sorry.  It’s a lethal illness no doubt, but there seem to be questions abound. 

 

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close to 36k new cases today in the U.S

 

Under 2k deaths

 

Massachusetts just came in with alot of cases and more deaths.

With testing ramping up we should see daily cases increase as well. Cuomo wants to double NYS daily testing from 20,000 a day now to 40,000 a day within the next few weeks. We should be over a million confirmed cases in the US by Monday or Tuesday at the latest. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

With testing ramping up we should see daily cases increase as well. Cuomo wants to double NYS daily testing from 20,000 a day now to 40,000 a day within the next few weeks. We should be over a million confirmed cases in the US by Monday or Tuesday at the latest. 

Over 36k now in the us

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Good reasons to think about this.  The cdc instructed that anyone who tests positive with corona virus and then dies, the cause of death is corona virus.  Which is odd. An asymptomatic person can “die of covid” even though they had a heart attack?  

I read an article which I cannot now find where a number of doctors wondered where the heart attack and stroke victims they normally see in ERs went. They said they thought these victims must have stayed home and died there instead because they didn’t want the virus to infect them at the hospital.  I need to find the article because maybe the doctors were looking at statistics and noticed causes of death from the normal, more common factors were down.

The numbers are messy I’m sorry.  It’s a lethal illness no doubt, but there seem to be questions abound. 

 

You hit on some good points and I had read the same article recently (NYT?). Part of the problem with all these numbers, covid-19, seasonal flu, model projections, is that the final infection/mortality values are estimates.  Not everyone that gets the flu, dies or even gets tested.  Same with covid-19, so there are a lot of extrapolations that occur. Which means a lot of uncertainty...esp with modeling, which appears to have been overly pessimistic.  

I could be wrong here but wasn't the main objective of distancing to "flatten the curve?" It's not so much to directly prevent infection / deaths but to string out the number of cases at any given time so as to not overburden the healthcare system and wind up with higher mortality. I think in the end the models project roughly the same number of infections.  I suppose if the R0 value gets low enough the virus will just "go away" as they all do so that could be another good reason to isolate but there's also a gigantic cost to this.  So, trying to figure out when to sound the "all clear" is really problematic as we are using a lot of projections and guesstinates... but not sure of a better way.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, WNash said:

This can’t be true. Even his devoted followers know that Trump often talks a lot of nonsense, and nobody would be so stupid as to huff Lysol or whatever. But maybe I’m wrong.

I suspect this is a politically motivated effort (Trump Lied - People Died), or pranksters, or both.  OTOH, if it's real, it looks like Natural Selection is doing its dirty work. Future generations will be thankful.  ;)

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brentrich

brentrich

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

10,533 new cases  in NY

46,712 tested recently

777,568 tests in NY

I use infection2020.com to keep track of how many new cases/death per day but the website seems not to be working lately. Do you know another good site to keep track of cases? 

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

You hit on some good points and I had read the same article recently (NYT?). Part of the problem with all these numbers, covid-19, seasonal flu, model projections, is that the final infection/mortality values are estimates.  Not everyone that gets the flu, dies or even gets tested.  Same with covid-19, so there are a lot of extrapolations that occur. Which means a lot of uncertainty...esp with modeling, which appears to have been overly pessimistic.  

I could be wrong here but wasn't the main objective of distancing to "flatten the curve?" It's not so much to directly prevent infection / deaths but to string out the number of cases at any given time so as to not overburden the healthcare system and wind up with higher mortality. I think in the end the models project roughly the same number of infections.  I suppose if the R0 value gets low enough the virus will just "go away" as they all do so that could be another good reason to isolate but there's also a gigantic cost to this.  So, trying to figure out when to sound the "all clear" is really problematic as we are using a lot of projections and guesstinates... but not sure of a better way.

Yeah we are all going to get it until the point where the virus runs out of vectors, or we get a vaccine.  Herd immunity might obviate that I suppose.  Whichever comes first.  Same difference though, but a faster vaccine esp. for those at risk is the better outcome.

and unless you are high risk, you won’t get vaccinated in the first instance.  Healthy low risk will get the illness before they get a vaccine if i had to bet.

PS I am pretty sure I had this already.  I was in China a day before lockdown and live near and work in NYC.  No symptoms but my kid did, lost taste.

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