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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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Just now, Luke_Mages said:

There are times I miss it...but since I couldn’t sleep I just snuck in a shoulder workout. I started out a a kid at steel mill gym in Lackawanna, that place was as close to westside barbell as you can get around here. I miss that place. 

I know quite a few people that still go to steel mill. There is a gym in orchard park called underground that is an improved version of it. 24/7 and they give you a key to it for $30 a month.

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These are the 2 emails United sent to me. They are now only offering a flight credit. They must have ran out of money?

 

Thank you for reaching out to us for information on a recent charge.

We show the credit cardholder has disputed the charge directly with the credit card company. For further information regarding the dispute, please contact the credit card company.

We appreciate your support and we thank you for choosing United Airlines.

Sincerely,

United Refunds

 

We've processed the refund today.

If your ticket was purchased using a credit card please allow 7-10 business days for the credit to post to your account. For check payments, please allow sufficient time for the check delivery. You may also view the refund details using the Check Refund Status link below and enter the 13-digit ticket number or 8-digit Request ID listed above.

Thank you for the opportunity to assist you and we look forward to welcoming you on a future United Airlines flight.

Sincerely,

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

These are the 2 emails United sent to me. They are now only offering a flight credit. They must have ran out of money?

 

Thank you for reaching out to us for information on a recent charge.

We show the credit cardholder has disputed the charge directly with the credit card company. For further information regarding the dispute, please contact the credit card company.

We appreciate your support and we thank you for choosing United Airlines.

Sincerely,

United Refunds

 

We've processed the refund today.

If your ticket was purchased using a credit card please allow 7-10 business days for the credit to post to your account. For check payments, please allow sufficient time for the check delivery. You may also view the refund details using the Check Refund Status link below and enter the 13-digit ticket number or 8-digit Request ID listed above.

Thank you for the opportunity to assist you and we look forward to welcoming you on a future United Airlines flight.

Sincerely,

That’s insane. Anytime I’ve had a flight canceled on me that they couldn’t rebook the refund process has been automatic. You’re right, they must be aggressively trying to hold phones. Virgin Australia just went bankrupt yesterday, I don’t think they’re going to be the last large airline to fold before this is over. 

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As pegulas money is 90% in oil/gas I don't think the Bills and Sabres can spend unlimited money now. He must have lost a fortune. The "I'll just drill another well" if I need money is a thing of the past.

Scary article that also touches what your talking about. Let’s just hope the Bills can stay out of this mess...

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/4/20/21228062/buffalo-bills-owners-kim-terry-pegula-facing-low-morale-cost-cutting-across-organizations/comment/526643752?_gl=1*lirjjn*

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As pegulas money is 90% in oil/gas I don't think the Bills and Sabres can spend unlimited money now. He must have lost a fortune. The "I'll just drill another well" if I need money is a thing of the past.

I spoke to my neighbor across the street yesterday who I close friends with a few of the people named in the Tim Graham article. He states the piece is 100% accurate and that the pegulas put money into entities and side business that are failing or bleeding money. What's worse is they're not putting the blame in themselves for over spending. It seems they are being petulant in their reasoning and insulating themselves by hiring close family only 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not sure if anyone saw this but a pretty huge deal.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-april-20-2020

So while the Seneca gas stations are properly pricing (shoot it might be .50 cents a gallon by the weekend) the local stations are still above $2.20 a gallon. I understand the amount of consumption is down nearly 75% however you can't tell me with a straight face that cheaper gas hasn't been delivered at least once during the last month. This needs to be looked at for gouging.

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9 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

The craziness deepens. I don’t see what this does to help at this point. I’m no conspiracy theorist but something doesn’t seem right. 
 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-suspend-immigration-executive-order-coronavirus

 

Dear Leader may not realize (or care) that in the next 6 weeks thousands of foreign medical graduates will be entering the country to begin their internship and residency programs.

Senior residents will be graduating at the same time.

If they aren't replaced we will be missing thousands of doctors from our hospital care systems.

These are the doctors who provide the majority of the care in major American hospitals.

Who does he think is going to take care of the COVID patients?

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5 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Dear Leader may not realize (or care) that in the next 6 weeks thousands of foreign medical graduates will be entering the country to begin their internship and residency programs.

Senior residents will be graduating at the same time.

If they aren't replaced we will be missing thousands of doctors from our hospital care systems.

These are the doctors who provide the majority of the care in major American hospitals.

Who does he think is going to take care of the COVID patients?

I get your argument but currently the situation is the opposite. Medical staff, including MDs, are being furloughed/laid off all over the country or being asked to take pay cuts. I know locally that healthcare is hemorrhaging money.

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12 hours ago, brentrich said:

See, we tried to tell you. It will extend into July. When will you start listen to us :)  

I can believe NYC and environs may need to stay with existing restrictions into June but here in CNY and many other counties...not so much.  As of this past weekend, Oswego county had something like 54 cases and a population of ~ 117,000.  The lockdown is now officially absurd there.  Even my county, Onondaga, has 263 active cases as of yesterday and a total population of 450,000.  Even if active cases are undercounted by a factor of 2 or 3 its still statistically almost round off error.

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32 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Dear Leader may not realize (or care) that in the next 6 weeks thousands of foreign medical graduates will be entering the country to begin their internship and residency programs.

Senior residents will be graduating at the same time.

If they aren't replaced we will be missing thousands of doctors from our hospital care systems.

These are the doctors who provide the majority of the care in major American hospitals.

Who does he think is going to take care of the COVID patients?

Other than NYC area...there aren't many COVID cases actually in hospitals, relative to capacity.  And since many hospitals are now going broke due to deferral of non-COVID cases, we probably won't need new MD's.  Its perfect!  :axe:

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9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not sure if anyone saw this but a pretty huge deal.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-april-20-2020

The May WTI Futures contract expires today, so if you are dumb enough to have NOT sold the contract (and there are a few), you have to take physical delivery.  Today.  Cushing, Oklahoma.  1,000 barrel contracts.  So...at 42 gals/barrel, I say we "buy" a May contract today (actually you would get paid to buy the oil at negative prices), rent about five 8,000 gallon tanker trucks (and drivers) and road trip it to Cushing!  We all are going to have unused vacation, right?  We get paid to take the oil.  #cantlose.  ;) 

Just have to find a market to sell that oil into...and of course keep the tanker trucks and drivers available as temporary storage. ;)

 

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19 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Other than NYC area...there aren't many COVID cases actually in hospitals, relative to capacity.  And since many hospitals are now going broke due to deferral of non-COVID cases, we probably won't need new MD's.  Its perfect!  :axe:

That's exactly what I explained to my wife yesterday when she was quizzical about how the hospitals were losing money and I said simply many of the surgeries, cosmetic, open heart, not essential, etc weren't being performed which is terrible for the bottom line. Add in copious amounts of overtime at crazy hourly rates (think up to $90+ an hour) and some hospitals will be forced into some very difficult decisions in the near term.

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19 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The May WTI Futures contract expires today, so if you are dumb enough to have NOT sold the contract (and there are a few), you have to take physical delivery.  Today.  Cushing, Oklahoma.  1,000 barrel contracts.  So...at 42 gals/barrel, I say we "buy" a May contract today (actually you would get paid to buy the oil at negative prices), rent about five 8,000 gallon tanker trucks (and drivers) and road trip it to Cushing!  We all are going to have unused vacation, right?  We get paid to take the oil.  #cantlose.  ;) 

Just have to find a market to sell that oil into...and of course keep the tanker trucks and drivers available as temporary storage. ;)

 

Trump will buy it from you.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-seeks-to-add-75-million-barrels-of-oil-to-strategic-petroleum-reserve-amid-historic-price-crash-2020-04-20

 

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33 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Other than NYC area...there aren't many COVID cases actually in hospitals, relative to capacity.  And since many hospitals are now going broke due to deferral of non-COVID cases, we probably won't need new MD's.  Its perfect!  :axe:

Which goes back to my point about this latest immigration move being more about protecting jobs than preventing more Covid cases. That has to be the play.

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BREAKING:  USO Exchange traded ETF may be in process of blowing up right now.  Much like the Inverse Volatility ETF (XIV) did a year or so ago.  Trading Halted in USO.  More to follow but looks like institutions can't deliver/create new shares in derivatives.

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1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

I get your argument but currently the situation is the opposite. Medical staff, including MDs, are being furloughed/laid off all over the country or being asked to take pay cuts. I know locally that healthcare is hemorrhaging money.

We need the residents.

They work for very little money and cover huge amounts of hospital care that we don't otherwise have the capacity to cover.

The doctors who aren't working now, like orthopedics, plastic surgery, opthalmologists are very expensive and unqualified to be doing hospital care.

We are hemorrhaging money until we get those specialties back to work, which should be very soon, at least in upstate/rural NY.

Not having our trainees arrive would be a much bigger and longer lasting financial disaster for our health care system.

 

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32 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that our Bear Market rally in Equities has about spent itself, almost right at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, depending on the index.  Uncanny.

The IWM has offered the best options trading that I have done in more than 10 years.

That chart is broken in so many places...

And (I don't know who could be this stupid, but nonetheless) it gets run up every Friday afternoon for the last several weeks.  I buy my puts around 1500 on Fridays and by Monday morning I have a nice profitable position to trade.

 

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Just now, cny rider said:

We need the residents.

They work for very little money and cover huge amounts of hospital care that we don't otherwise have the capacity to cover.

The doctors who aren't working now, like orthopedics, plastic surgery, opthalmologists are very expensive and unqualified to be doing hospital care.

We are hemorrhaging money until we get those specialties back to work, which should be very soon, at least in upstate/rural NY.

Not having our trainees arrive would be a much bigger and longer lasting financial disaster for our health care system.

 

I disagree, maintaining residents is actually a financial/time burden(PITA) on a hospital system. I can only speak locally.

And they are hemorrhaging money across all service lines, not just the ones you mentioned. The Covid cases are turning into an accounting nightmare as costs for supplies have ballooned and guidance for coding modifiers is changing daily.

I'll agree that LONG term this would hurt, but you're talking years from now there being a shortage. I would be more concerned that colleges stateside and globally wont even be able to produce students ready for residency.

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10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not sure if anyone saw this but a pretty huge deal.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-april-20-2020

Good. This is the 'reset' that industry needs since the prices went up quite permanently from the 1990s levels, especially after the 2008 and 2011 spikes. Gas should be in the $1.50/gal range, IMO.

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4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Good. This is the 'reset' that industry needs since the prices went up quite permanently from the 1990s levels, especially after the 2008 and 2011 spikes. Gas should be in the $1.50/gal range, IMO.

Gasoline pretty much is there, if you account for inflation and NY's increased fuel taxes since the 1990s...

Gas locally at BJs was selling for $1.89/gal last week. The other non-member Stop n Robs are around $2.10-$2.20 still because they are all in cahoots to keep local prices (and store /distributor profits) elevated.

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14 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Gasoline pretty much is there, if you account for inflation and NY's increased fuel taxes since the 1990s...

Gas locally at BJs was selling for $1.89/gal last week. The other non-member Stop n Robs are around $2.10-$2.20 still because they are all in cahoots to keep local prices (and store /distributor profits) elevated.

Agreed, but I think it should be here permanently. Anything higher is just padding Exec wallets.

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20 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Good. This is the 'reset' that industry needs since the prices went up quite permanently from the 1990s levels, especially after the 2008 and 2011 spikes. Gas should be in the $1.50/gal range, IMO.

Meh...I don't know how good this is if it lasts for any appreciable period of time. 90% of the Saudi economy comes from oil, and 70% of Russia's. I would imagine that the Saudi's can float for a while, whereas Russia will become pretty desperate and aggressive quickly. If saudis keep pumping out oil Russia will attack their oilfields, whether directly or by proxy.

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This is potentially big news:

An estimated 320,000 adults in Los Angeles County may have been infected with coronavirus (vs ~8,000 testing positive), according to preliminary results of a study that suggests the illness is far more widespread than current testing shows and the death rate is much lower. 

The study conducted April 10-11 by the county and the University of Southern California estimated that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population of 8 million has antibodies to the virus. When adjusted for margin of error, the infection rate ranged from 2.8% to 5.6%, or about 220,000 to 440,000 adults.

The study follows other research that has suggested more people have had coronavirus without symptoms — or without feeling ill enough to seek a test.

https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/

 

If this is the case, the mortality rate is much lower.

 

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1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said:

Meh...I don't know how good this is if it lasts for any appreciable period of time. 90% of the Saudi economy comes from oil, and 70% of Russia's. I would imagine that the Saudi's can float for a while, whereas Russia will become pretty desperate and aggressive quickly. 

Economic pressure on Russia and Saudi is just fine. This is why the US is becoming oil independent and will pave the way for eventual transition to cleaner fuels & tech. It's a win-win IMO.

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20 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Economic pressure on Russia and Saudi is just fine. This is why the US is becoming oil independent and will pave the way for eventual transition to cleaner fuels & tech. It's a win-win IMO.

If Russia attacks the Saudis the US will attack Russia, then China sides with Russia...and we have WW3. That's good for no one. 

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