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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..


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Here's your Covid-19 Stock Market.  Plan accordingly:

Phase 1: Sold To You Rally 
Phase 2: Liquidity meet Liquidation
Phase 3: Fed Backstop
Phase 4: Relief/Disbelief Rally
Phase 5: Bankruptcy Tsunami
Phase 6: Distressed Asset Feast
Phase 7: Time Heals
Phase 8: Scarcity Of Things
Phase 9: Inflation Edition
Phase 10: Begin Again


 

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10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Oil ($WTIC) retesting recent multi-decade lows ($19.87/bbl).  And this after an OPEC+ production cut.  Unbelievable. Global Demand has been demolished.

I wonder how many full tankers are just floating at sea being used as storage tanks, waiting for prices to rebound before they unload their cargo.

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31 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Here's your Covid-19 Stock Market.  Plan accordingly:

Phase 1: Sold To You Rally 
Phase 2: Liquidity meet Liquidation
Phase 3: Fed Backstop
Phase 4: Relief/Disbelief Rally
Phase 5: Bankruptcy Tsunami
Phase 6: Distressed Asset Feast
Phase 7: Time Heals
Phase 8: Scarcity Of Things
Phase 9: Inflation Edition
Phase 10: Begin Again


 

All of this depends on when we get a vaccine. Say they do another stimulus with Small Business loans/loc to get us through summer and a vaccine comes in fall. If don't get a vaccine until next Spring we are in big trouble. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All of this depends on when we get a vaccine. Say they do another stimulus with Small Business loans/loc to get us through summer and a vaccine comes in fall. If don't get a vaccine until next Spring we are in big trouble. 

You’re not going to get a vaccine this fall.  Most phase 1 clinal trials aren’t going to start until September.  Next spring is probably the earliest you’ll see an effective vaccine then it will take some time to ramp up production then we go to mass inoculations.

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19 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What they want is transparency in government, which they know to be antithetical for communist government.  Communism can’t exist without controlling information.  

China has been self governing for 6000 years and they never once sniffed it. 

I don’t think China ‘grew’ it in a lab, but they might have been irresponsible at the lab, and then lied about it.  The first lie was they said it wasn’t transmittable human to human.  The WHO went along with that for some reason, and that’s why they will be broke. 

Changed my mind.  Conspiracy theory goes like this:

China creates and releases virus into the world, using it’s own population as vectors.  They convince WHO that person to person isn’t happening to facilitate global spread.  Western powers follow along, US notwithstanding, but China only needs Europe to go with the WHO.  

China shrewdly  calculates its authoritarian government can manage the sickness internally  better than the west, so they accept losses.  History proves China doesn’t value life anyway.  They have killed 50 million of their own people in more than 1 instance in the last 100 years.

China calculates the US will have 150 million cases, similar to early CDC projections due to the failure of government and will of the ‘decadent’ population to manage the spread and lethality.  With the western powers destabilized with internal strife, China can advance its interests around the world while the west is mired in chaos.  Their gambit calculates civil unrest in the US from the gun toting part of population, and other protests, with the media eagerly fanning the flames of politic discord.  Trump is persecuted and removed from office prior to the election and the US government weakens substantially.  China knows regicide in the US is their ticket to the top.

Playing the long game, China waits as the west bleeds out, and then takes their interests to the final level they desire, and that is to be the dominant economic and military super power they are destined to be.  The virus is the tool to accelerate their position.  

 

Plausible.  

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone still thinking we open up by June 1st? Most doctors are saying no fans at sporting events until we have a vaccine. Figures as soon as the Bills get good...

Nope.

Right now the rate of spread doesn't seem to be slowing and that's with everyone locked down. At least the rate isn't increasing. What the hell did China do?

image.png.2302ad9f77857731d3b5bda5042f4928.png

 

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1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

I wonder how many full tankers are just floating at sea being used as storage tanks, waiting for prices to rebound before they unload their cargo.

I think a lot.  That's a stock trade i've been in/out of the past few weeks with Frontline Ltd.  They have to store massive amts of oil in tankers at this point.

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