Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[wolfie09]

23 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Up 1 the last 24 hours..

21 more negatives

26 more people tested...

Up 1 case last 24 hours and unfortunately they had to add a column for deceased which is 2..

Many more people tested..

I'm wondering if people are confusing symptoms from the common cold or allergies (as alluded by BW) for the coronavirus..

Awfully a lot of negatives for only testing the"sickest" Obviously max brought this up earlier..

Unless many of these people had contact with someone that is positive

[cny rider]

6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Some thoughts. Not a rant.

Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary).  He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..).  He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections.

Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army.  Something is really amiss here, big picture.

I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response.  Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29.

The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities.

I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I disagree with some of your other political posts, but that's for another discussion.

But I agree this can't be one size fits all response for the entire state of NY.

Here in Otsego County we have a trickle of new cases, typically 3-4 per day.  One death so far.  Some stress on our healthcare system but manageable so far.

We're rural and people are distancing well.

But:

Our economy wasn't so hot to begin with, and now it is being obliterated.

We have already committed to having no school through April. 

Our children need to get back to school.

Our adults need to have an opportunity to earn a living.

If case numbers remain low by late April we need a mechanism that gets kids back in school, and at least a partial resumption of economic activity while keeping tight surveillance for flare ups of the virus.

I'm not saying that's what should happen in Queens or Brooklyn but we need to give it a try in rural counties with low case loads.

 

 

 

[cny rider]

6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Some thoughts. Not a rant.

Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary).  He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..).  He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections.

Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army.  Something is really amiss here, big picture.

I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response.  Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29.

The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities.

I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I disagree with some of your other political posts, but that's for another discussion.

But I agree this can't be one size fits all response for the entire state of NY.

Here in Otsego County we have a trickle of new cases, typically 3-4 per day.  One death so far.  Some stress on our healthcare system but manageable so far.

We're rural and people are distancing well.

But:

Our economy wasn't so hot to begin with, and now it is being obliterated.

We have already committed to having no school through April. 

Our children need to get back to school.

Our adults need to have an opportunity to earn a living.

If case numbers remain low by late April we need a mechanism that gets kids back in school, and at least a partial resumption of economic activity while keeping tight surveillance for flare ups of the virus.

I'm not saying that's what should happen in Queens or Brooklyn but we need to give it a try in rural counties with low case loads.

 

 

 

[cny rider]

6 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Some thoughts. Not a rant.

Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary).  He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..).  He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections.

Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army.  Something is really amiss here, big picture.

I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response.  Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29.

The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities.

I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I disagree with some of your other political posts, but that's for another discussion.

But I agree this can't be one size fits all response for the entire state of NY.

Here in Otsego County we have a trickle of new cases, typically 3-4 per day.  One death so far.  Some stress on our healthcare system but manageable so far.

We're rural and people are distancing well.

But:

Our economy wasn't so hot to begin with, and now it is being obliterated.

We have already committed to having no school through April. 

Our children need to get back to school.

Our adults need to have an opportunity to earn a living.

If case numbers remain low by late April we need a mechanism that gets kids back in school, and at least a partial resumption of economic activity while keeping tight surveillance for flare ups of the virus.

I'm not saying that's what should happen in Queens or Brooklyn but we need to give it a try in rural counties with low case loads.

 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Virus deaths may be undercounted as more people die at home.

The official death figures, awful as they are, may not actually reflect the virus’s true toll Around the country, according to experts and officials, virus-related deaths are being undercounted because of inconsistent protocols and limited resources.

In New York City, the leader of the City Council’s health committee, Mark Levine, wrote on Twitter that people were dying at home at about 10 times the normal rate, presumably in large part because of the virus, but that many deaths were not being counted as virus deaths.

According to the news site Gothamist, the city medical examiner’s office has not been testing dead bodies for the virus and has instead referred what it considers “probable” virus deaths to the city’s health department.

But the health department counts only confirmed virus cases in its official death tally, Gothamist reported, suggesting that many virus deaths were being missed.

Asked on Tuesday about an increase in people dying at home, Mr. de Blasio said, “I’m assuming the vast majority of those deaths are coronavirus related.”

He added: “It’s understandable in a crisis that being able to make the confirmation is harder to do, with all the resources stretched so thin.” City officials, he said, were focusing their resources on “saving the next life.”

Still, he said, “We do want to know the truth about what happened in every death at home.”

[BuffaloWeather]

1970 deaths as the final tally for last 24 hours in US. Globally 7,380.

[BuffaloWeather]

They're already canceling events in June around Buffalo. June 13th and 14th was the allentown art festival.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/2020-allentown-art-festival-canceled/71-68c36a71-3f02-4878-8645-94c7ce624179

[wolfie09]

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COVID-19

Mysterious Heart Damage, Not Just Lung Troubles, Befalling COVID-19 Patients

By Markian Hawryluk APRIL 6, 2020

 REPUBLISH THIS STORY

 

 DISPONIBLE EN ESPAÑOL

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(KHN Illustration; Getty Images)

While the focus of the COVID-19 pandemic has been on respiratory problems and securing enough ventilators, doctors on the front lines are grappling with a new medical mystery.

In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems — and dying of cardiac arrest.

As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.

That could change the way doctors and hospitals need to think about patients, particularly in the early stages of illness. It also could open up a second front in the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, with a need for new precautions in people with preexisting heart problems, new demands for equipment and, ultimately, new treatment plans for damaged hearts among those who survive.

[wolfie09]

Initial Data From China

In March, doctors from China published two studies that gave the first glimpse at how prevalent cardiac problems were among patients with COVID-19 illness. The larger of the two studies looked at 416 hospitalized patients. The researchers found that 19% showed signs of heart damage. And those who did were significantly more likely to die: 51% of those with heart damage died versus 4.5% who did not have it.

Patients who had heart disease before their coronavirus infections were much more likely to show heart damage afterward. But some patients with no previous heart disease also showed signs of cardiac damage. In fact, patients with no preexisting heart conditions who incurred heart damage during their infection were more likely to die than patients with previous heart disease but no COVID-19-induced cardiac damage.

It’s unclear why some patients experience more cardiac effects than others. Bonow said that could be due to a genetic predisposition or it could be because they’re exposed to higher viral loads.

Those uncertainties underscore the need for closer monitoring of cardiac markers in COVID-19 patients, Jorde said. If doctors in New York, Washington state and other hot spots can start to tease out how the virus is affecting the heart, they may be able to provide a risk score or other guidance to help clinicians manage COVID-19 patients in other parts of the country.

“We have to assume, maybe, that the virus affects the heart directly,” Jorde said. “But it’s essential to find out.”

[LakeEffectKing]

Interesting read...

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

[BuffaloWeather]

Interview with Marc Polancarz said WNY hits the Apex in early May. I'm thinking we're in lockdown until at least June 1st. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Interesting read...

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

There was an interview with a NYC doctor that stated this is being treated incorrectly. That ventilators actually cause more harm then good and it's not the solution to opening up the lungs. He stated this virus exhibits similar effects to altitude sickness. He said when someone gets this virus its like being dropped on Mt Everest without acclimating. That is something I cannot imagine as when I was in Peru at 15k feet it felt like every step I could not breath. I had huge issues with elevation down there. I guess Doctors are learning as they go with this and don't necessarily know the best option to treat patients with COVID. They must figure since its a lung problem that ventilators are the solution. 

[wolfie09]

In sporting news, MLB is trying to get going in MAY, most likely in Phoenix Arizona with no fans..Players will be "isolated" in their hotel rooms, they will only be able to go to the ballpark and back...

UFC commissioner Dana white has secured a private island in order to get UFC back up and running lol

[Thinksnow18]

13 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Initial Data From China

In March, doctors from China published two studies that gave the first glimpse at how prevalent cardiac problems were among patients with COVID-19 illness. The larger of the two studies looked at 416 hospitalized patients. The researchers found that 19% showed signs of heart damage. And those who did were significantly more likely to die: 51% of those with heart damage died versus 4.5% who did not have it.

Patients who had heart disease before their coronavirus infections were much more likely to show heart damage afterward. But some patients with no previous heart disease also showed signs of cardiac damage. In fact, patients with no preexisting heart conditions who incurred heart damage during their infection were more likely to die than patients with previous heart disease but no COVID-19-induced cardiac damage.

It’s unclear why some patients experience more cardiac effects than others. Bonow said that could be due to a genetic predisposition or it could be because they’re exposed to higher viral loads.

Those uncertainties underscore the need for closer monitoring of cardiac markers in COVID-19 patients, Jorde said. If doctors in New York, Washington state and other hot spots can start to tease out how the virus is affecting the heart, they may be able to provide a risk score or other guidance to help clinicians manage COVID-19 patients in other parts of the country.

“We have to assume, maybe, that the virus affects the heart directly,” Jorde said. “But it’s essential to find out.”

I saw today on CBS this morning that elderly and people of color were at the greatest risk of contracting and perishing from Covid-19. I have been silently wondering about this over the past weeks if a certain race was more likely to contract than others. Thus is the first time this has been brought up as fact.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

In sporting news, MLB is trying to get going in MAY, most likely in Phoenix Arizona with no fans..Players will be "isolated" in their hotel rooms, they will only be able to go to the ballpark and back...

UFC commissioner Dana white has secured a private island in order to get UFC back up and running lol

Dana Whites idea somehow reminds me of the movie The Island...

[BuffaloWeather]

US already up to 1373 deaths, going to be another bad day. 779 deaths in New York. 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

US already up to 1373 deaths, going to be another bad day. 779 deaths in New York. 

Global number is huge today too. 

[BuffaloWeather]

10,480 new cases in NY today. Still pretty close to their highest daily tally. We are still a long ways away from normalcy. 

[BuffaloWeather]

58 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Global number is huge today too. 

UK at 938 deaths. France, Italy and Spain are down. 

[LakeEffectKing]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There was an interview with a NYC doctor that stated this is being treated incorrectly. That ventilators actually cause more harm then good and it's not the solution to opening up the lungs. He stated this virus exhibits similar effects to altitude sickness. He said when someone gets this virus its like being dropped on Mt Everest without acclimating. That is something I cannot imagine as when I was in Peru at 15k feet it felt like every step I could not breath. I had huge issues with elevation down there. I guess Doctors are learning as they go with this and don't necessarily know the best option to treat patients with COVID. They must figure since its a lung problem that ventilators are the solution. 

I read another article that Drs. were perplexed because they were getting really low oxygen levels in the blood of patients, yet CT scans/x-rays of lungs weren't "that bad".....it sounds like (from my modest biology knowledge) that this virus may indeed be more of an inhibitor of the normal uptake of oxygen at the red blood cell membrane level, and not so much a "respiratory" (aka...SARS) disorder.  Thus, blood transfusions/100 oxygen hoods, and potentially hydroxychloroquine/Zithro treatments may be a better option than vents.....just thinking out loud as a layperson...

[LakeEffectKing]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

UK at 938 deaths. France, Italy and Spain are down. 

I'm guessing/estimating that (now that testing is "better") we can look at the data and make some rudimentary (fitting into commonsense) deductions that the daily death counts in a particular area, are going to lag behind the "confirmed" cases by 10 days or so */- a few days.....

….thus, it's nice to see Italy's daily confirmed cases on a nice, prolonged downward slope.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

UK at 938 deaths. France, Italy and Spain are down. 

The number I have been paying attention to is global new cases per day. While not perfect as there's no way to currently test enough it is a good indicator of whether we are reaching a plateau in rate of spread. Once we do that then we can think about actually containing it. There are currently countries like India and Russia where I think the virus is spreading explosively but without testing to track. Its nearly impossible to socially distance yourself in the worlds most populous country...

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-07/social-distancing-family-one-room

[DeltaT13]

11 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Interesting read...

http://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb

Thats a very interesting article.  A damn shame it had to be spun into a strange trump dick sucking direction.  Trump doesnt know an ion, from an electron, or how iron has any part of human blood chemistry.  Someone much smarter probably told him it had hope and now he is somehow getting praise as if he came up with the medicine or idea to use it as a treatment himself.  We don't need any medical advice from any president, Whether its Trump or Obama.  Leave that shit to the professionals who have spent decades working and studying in a lab.

Cool article, shitty spin.  Hope we can get this virus figured out soon. 

[tim123]

Obama if you like your dr you can keep your dr. Lmao

[MJO812]

Wuhan , China has opened up

[DeltaT13]

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Obama if you like your dr you can keep your dr. Lmao

It always easy to remember that one because its basically the only "lie" in his entire 8 year career.  Trump is over 17,000 blatant lies in 3 years, often making more than a dozen an hour. Try to keep up..

Anyway, hows the hoax working out for you? LOLz

[tim123]

Have fun voting for sleepy joe. You strike me as a bernie bro. 

[DeltaT13]

18 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Have fun voting for sleepy joe. You strike me as a bernie bro. 

Correct, Bernie would have been nice but the US isnt ready for socialism just yet, a bit ahead of his time so to speak. 

Joe Biden will have to do but certainly has a better chance of losing than winning at this time.  To be honest, I would take any single republican candidate over trump.  Literally any other person, anyone, but Trump.  This isnt about dems or republican, I just want a coherent normal human with some form of empathy and intelligence.  

[wolfie09]

On 4/7/2020 at 5:23 PM, wolfie09 said:

Up 1 case last 24 hours and unfortunately they had to add a column for deceased which is 2..

Many more people tested..

I'm wondering if people are confusing symptoms from the common cold or allergies (as alluded by BW) for the coronavirus..

Awfully a lot of negatives for only testing the"sickest" Obviously max brought this up earlier..

Unless many of these people had contact with someone that is positive

2 New confirmed last 24 hours

62 negative results

 

[BuffaloWeather]