Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.

Mlb wants to start on July 4

[wolfie09]

Didn't come out exactly like I wanted but works nonetheless lol I have ski mask underneath for extra protection.. Trying to do a big shopping today...

[wolfie09]

The one thing not talked about much is how long does the virus stay in the air..

I seen a "doctor" on FB claim 1-2 hours after a person coughs or sneezes...(without covering)

[Buckeyes_Suck]

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Didn't come out exactly like I wanted but works nonetheless lol I have ski mask underneath for extra protection.. Trying to do a big shopping today...

I wouldn't bother even bringing a wallet lol.

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The one thing not talked about much is how long does the virus stay in the air..

I seen a "doctor" on FB claim 1-2 hours after a person coughs or sneezes...(without covering)

This just seems wildly hard to believe.   The solution to pollution is dilution.  After even a few seconds of air flow, you have to imagine concentrations are dropping dramatically as air moves and mixes.  Secondly, there is an infectious dose threshold.  Just because a virus can be detected, does not mean it can be contracted.  Point in case is that cruise ship where they detected COVID19 17 days after.  Sure, it may have been detected (DNA remnants), but could you get sick from it, seems unlikely if not impossible.

Anyway, I don't know what magic room that doctor was in but air moves, and as it moves it dilutes.   I see little risk to just breathing in normal air if no one else is within 6 feet.  

[wolfie09]

 

[wolfie09]

TAMPA, Fla. - As COVID-19 cases continue to climb, a growing list of governors are ordering their residents to stay inside and away from others. 

At least 30 states now have some form of a stay-at-home order in place, yet here in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis continues to resist calls to follow suit statewide. There is growing pressure for him to take stronger action.

So here’s the thing, I don’t have an enforcement arm here, it’s gotta be done by the locals anyway,” said DeSantis.

 

His approach to slowing the impact of COVID-19 here in the sunshine state is to leave it up to each jurisdiction.

“Our guidance is no groups of 10 or more, follow what the CDC says,” DeSantis says.  “I think that’s the best way to be safe, and I think if people do that they’re good.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control, Florida ranks sixth in the nation for the number of confirmed coronavirus cases.

DeSantis says South Florida is the state’s hotspot, and Monday he did issue a safer-at-home executive order for four counties.

“Right now it’s a matter of life or death, we need to have a consistent plan here in the state of Florida,” Representative Kathy Castor said.

Castor is one of 13 members of Congress who sent a second letter to the governor, urging him to issue a statewide order immediately. Saying in part, “This pandemic has not respected global borders so it certainly will not respect county borders.”

“I think that means that we have to be as aggressive as possible in flattening the curve and encouraging folks to stay home,” said Castor. 

Many policymakers, and even the White House, are now using models coming out of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent research center at the University of Washington. The data shows Florida’s peak could come on May 3, with the potential for thousands to lose their lives. 

But to keep the curve as low as projected, travel needs to be severely limited, non-essential services closed, and the entire state locked down. Florida has done none of those.

“There’s not really any more you can do in Southeast Florida, you just gotta kinda stay the course at this point,” DeSantis said.  “Some of the other areas, you know it’s just a different situation, were a big diverse state.”

A change.org petition to lock down the state started circulating last week. The author writing “…our family are in risk, please shut down Florida.” As of Tuesday evening, it had nearly 400,000 signatures.

“I think no matter what you do, you’re gonna have a class of folks who just are gonna do whatever the hell they want to,” said DeSantis.

FOX 13 News reached out to Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio to see where they stand on a statewide stay-at-home order. So far, we have not heard back about their positions.

 

[wolfie09]

Obviously Florida has a lot of elderly being 5th in median age but they have much more of a population then the states ahead of them...

.

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

TAMPA, Fla. - As COVID-19 cases continue to climb, a growing list of governors are ordering their residents to stay inside and away from others. 

At least 30 states now have some form of a stay-at-home order in place, yet here in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis continues to resist calls to follow suit statewide. There is growing pressure for him to take stronger action.

So here’s the thing, I don’t have an enforcement arm here, it’s gotta be done by the locals anyway,” said DeSantis.

 

His approach to slowing the impact of COVID-19 here in the sunshine state is to leave it up to each jurisdiction.

“Our guidance is no groups of 10 or more, follow what the CDC says,” DeSantis says.  “I think that’s the best way to be safe, and I think if people do that they’re good.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control, Florida ranks sixth in the nation for the number of confirmed coronavirus cases.

DeSantis says South Florida is the state’s hotspot, and Monday he did issue a safer-at-home executive order for four counties.

“Right now it’s a matter of life or death, we need to have a consistent plan here in the state of Florida,” Representative Kathy Castor said.

Castor is one of 13 members of Congress who sent a second letter to the governor, urging him to issue a statewide order immediately. Saying in part, “This pandemic has not respected global borders so it certainly will not respect county borders.”

“I think that means that we have to be as aggressive as possible in flattening the curve and encouraging folks to stay home,” said Castor. 

Many policymakers, and even the White House, are now using models coming out of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent research center at the University of Washington. The data shows Florida’s peak could come on May 3, with the potential for thousands to lose their lives. 

But to keep the curve as low as projected, travel needs to be severely limited, non-essential services closed, and the entire state locked down. Florida has done none of those.

“There’s not really any more you can do in Southeast Florida, you just gotta kinda stay the course at this point,” DeSantis said.  “Some of the other areas, you know it’s just a different situation, were a big diverse state.”

A change.org petition to lock down the state started circulating last week. The author writing “…our family are in risk, please shut down Florida.” As of Tuesday evening, it had nearly 400,000 signatures.

“I think no matter what you do, you’re gonna have a class of folks who just are gonna do whatever the hell they want to,” said DeSantis.

FOX 13 News reached out to Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio to see where they stand on a statewide stay-at-home order. So far, we have not heard back about their positions.

 

He sounds like a numb skull that only cares about not losing $$ for the economy in his state. Who says it doesn’t matter what laws or rules I put in place people are still going to do what they want anyway so why bother? If that’s the case then why are there any laws in place? Just because some people don’t listen to them does not mean the majority won’t. Smh. How are some of these people in power? It’s a damn shame. 

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

This just seems wildly hard to believe.   The solution to pollution is dilution.  After even a few seconds of air flow, you have to imagine concentrations are dropping dramatically as air moves and mixes.  Secondly, there is an infectious dose threshold.  Just because a virus can be detected, does not mean it can be contracted.  Point in case is that cruise ship where they detected COVID19 17 days after.  Sure, it may have been detected (DNA remnants), but could you get sick from it, seems unlikely if not impossible.

Anyway, I don't know what magic room that doctor was in but air moves, and as it moves it dilutes.   I see little risk to just breathing in normal air if no one else is within 6 feet.  

I'd agree but it looks like there is a lot of variability depending on circumstances...  My Boss at work circulated this to us today:

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON THE CORONAVIRUS VIRUS FROM JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL
* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code (mutation) and converts them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only:
- between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
- 4 hours (copper and wood)
- 24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
- 72 hours (plastic).
But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Mortality rate up to 5.01% 

Only those above 100.4 fever are getting tested. (In the USA) Not sure what the data is for the rest of the world.  So that rate is based on that data. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Mortality rate up to 5.01% 

Only those above 100.4 fever are getting tested. (In the USA) Not sure what the data is for the rest of the world.  So that rate is based on that data. 

This is somewhat false. I know people who had a fever over 102 plus cough and shortness of breath and still got turned away for testing because they were told they were “ otherwise young and healthy” and to just monitor symptoms. Also the ECDOH stayed they are only testing essential personnel, elderly, and pregnant women since they are extremely limited on test. The numbers of positive test are WAYYY higher than what is being shown. I think the more important number to follow is the hospitalizations and deaths than the number of positive cases as it’s so skewed on the low side it’s almost useless. 

[DeltaT13]

That sure as heck isnt flattening for the US.  

[Syrmax]

Another day...another 1,000 Dow points down the crapper.  Looks like our Bear Market rally has died.

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

This is somewhat false. I know people who had a fever over 102 plus cough and shortness of breath and still got turned away for testing because they were told they were “ otherwise young and healthy” and to just monitor symptoms. Also the ECDOH stayed they are only testing essential personnel, elderly, and pregnant women since they are extremely limited on test. The numbers of positive test are WAYYY higher than what is being shown. I think the more important number to follow is the hospitalizations and deaths than the number of positive cases as it’s so skewed on the low side it’s almost useless. 

But but but we were told there are now plenty of test kits available!

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Another day...another 1,000 Dow points down the crapper.  Looks like our Bear Market rally has died.

I'm raising my contribution. Everything is at a discount. (If you can afford it)

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

That sure as heck isnt flattening for the US.  

You have to be careful where you get your data from. This graph misrepresents what is actually happening because its comparing China who grossly under reported along with two countries who are only 1/6th as populous as the US. So on day 16 when Spain has 60k cases for an apples to apples comparison the US should have 300k on day 16.

[DeltaT13]

42 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

You have to be careful where you get your data from. This graph misrepresents what is actually happening because its comparing China who grossly under reported along with two countries who are only 1/6th as populous as the US. So on day 16 when Spain has 60k cases for an apples to apples comparison the US should have 300k on day 16.

I already posted a far more accurate way to track it, and it shows a similar thing. 
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR0rJQtPzhVZjylG_TcF51RlEVCs6j8B0y11cT4t75-PjvYWEOjVeItMJuA
This is just another visual to show how far outside the norm in terms of absolute numbers that we are right now. (Half the time, twice the numbers, it's not pretty)

China likely under reported, but what if they didn't? Will we ever know? We we should just throw them out altogether.  

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm raising my contribution. Everything is at a discount. (If you can afford it)

I'll do that at some point but I already made adjustments to my 401k back in February when this was brewing.  My IRA Manager thinks its a great time to cost average in, and he's probably right...assuming this isn't the start of a prolonged Deep Recession or Depression, which is not off the table.  

I'm just hoping to still have a job in 3-6 months.  And this is where fear kicks in and creates the conditions for a Recession, or worse..  Many of us still employed look around at what's happening and prudently start pulling in the spending...which feeds into the downward spiral of economic activity and deflation.  I think the definition of Recession or Depression is somewhat arbitrary but I suspect it's going to be more severe because even the companies doing ok are looking at having to deal with much more than a business cycle downturn or temporary credit crisis that fueled a recession, ala 2008/09.  Noone knows when the hell this is going to end.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

I'll do that at some point but I already made adjustments to my 401k back in February when this was brewing.  My IRA Manager thinks its a great time to cost average in, and he's probably right...assuming this isn't the start of a prolonged Deep Recession or Depression, which is not off the table.  

I'm just hoping to still have a job in 3-6 months.  And this is where fear kicks in and creates the conditions for a Recession, or worse..  Many of us still employed look around at what's happening and prudently start pulling in the spending...which feeds into the downward spiral of economic activity and deflation.  I think the definition of Recession or Depression is somewhat arbitrary but I suspect it's going to be more severe because even the companies doing ok are looking at having to deal with much more than a business cycle downturn or temporary credit crisis that fueled a recession, ala 2008/09.  Noone knows when the hell this is going to end.

Yeah, everyone is in a different situation. You should always have at least a 6 month emergency fund for situations like we have now. Also should pay off any high interest rate debt. Then after this look into investing. Dollar cost averaging usually works in the long run for people that are not too risky. But I always try to up my contributions when the stock market drops if I am able to.

The definition of a recession is negative GDP for 2 quarters, a depression is negative GDP for 6 quarters. I think we will be pretty close to a depression by the end of this. 2008 was titled "The Great Recession".

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

[BuffaloWeather]

Things like this shouldn't exist.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/investing/short-sellers-market-coronavirus/index.html

Ackman recently disclosed in a shareholder letter to investors in his Pershing Square Capital Management funds that he made $2.6 billion as stocks fell.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I already posted a far more accurate way to track it, and it shows a similar thing. 
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR0rJQtPzhVZjylG_TcF51RlEVCs6j8B0y11cT4t75-PjvYWEOjVeItMJuA
This is just another visual to show how far outside the norm in terms of absolute numbers that we are right now. (Half the time, twice the numbers, it's not pretty)

China likely under reported, but what if they didn't? Will we ever know? We we should just throw them out altogether.  

This data set is also a misrepresentation. It’s simply new cases as a percentage of total cases and doesn’t take in account the total available infectable population. Outside of the New York metro area the US is doing extremely well in slowing the spread. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Is funny to me how I'm listening to this interview with Pence and Trump talking about how nobody should be responsible for covering the costs of Coronavirus. We are currently at the mercy of the medical insurance industry to waive the costs. It looks like Cigna, Aetna, and Humana have said they would waive all fees associated with the virus and they "encourage" other companies to follow suite. All the while 28 million people are uninsured and if they get cancer or break a leg, well screw them...

They basically just admitted that democrats are correct in that medical care is a human right.

[Syrmax]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is funny to me how I'm listening to this interview with Pence and Trump talking about how nobody should be responsible for covering the costs of Coronavirus. We are currently at the mercy of the medical insurance industry to waive the costs. It looks like Cigna, Aetna, and Humana have said they would waive all fees associated with the virus and they "encourage" other companies to follow suite. All the while 28 million people are uninsured and if they get cancer or break a leg, well screw them...

They basically just admitted that democrats are correct in that medical care is a human right.

we do provide certain medical care now, don't we?  If you're butt broke and AFU and show up in an ER...won't you be treated?  Isn't that already part of the cost that's eaten by taxpayers and insurance premiums? Not saying that's the best way to do it...

Just tweaking you...i know what you really mean and most of us would agree.  Question really is...how is that done, and/or done more efficiently...(we won't solve that here).  

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

we do provide certain medical care now, don't we?  If you're butt broke and AFU and show up in an ER...won't you be treated?  Isn't that already part of the cost that's eaten by taxpayers and insurance premiums? Not saying that's the best way to do it...

Just tweaking you...i know what you really mean and most of us would agree.  Question really is...how is that done, and/or done more efficiently...(we won't solve that here).  

People that work in restaurants don't get health insurance, people who are self employed many times don't have it due to the costs, many part time employees that work 2-3 jobs don't even get offered it. These are some of the 28 million. They still make a decent living but to receive insurance on their own as their employee won't subsidize it, it makes it impossible to pay the rest of their essential bills. I know medicaid pays for the VERY poor people of this country. But many people work extremely hard and still don't get offered insurance. My mom was a waitress for 20 years raising us, and never got offered health insurance.

[DeltaT13]

49 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

This data set is also a misrepresentation. It’s simply new cases as a percentage of total cases and doesn’t take in account the total available infectable population. Outside of the New York metro area the US is doing extremely well in slowing the spread. 

It's not a misrepresentation, its simply another piece of the puzzle.  I can infer accurate trends in either graph.  Those graphs distinctly show when transmission rates drop off, typically as a result of stringent social distancing.

Link  me some useful graphs that show the total available infectable population, I'd be interested to see those too.
  

[Syrmax]

29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Things like this shouldn't exist.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/investing/short-sellers-market-coronavirus/index.html

Ackman recently disclosed in a shareholder letter to investors in his Pershing Square Capital Management funds that he made $2.6 billion as stocks fell.

Ackman's a d-bag.  Always has been, always will be.  However, CNN,  didn't portray the entire story as usual.  Ackman, in his full statement, claims he had enough hedges on (short positions) to counteract a certain amount of drawdown in  his funds under management.  This is pretty typical of big money traders and fund managers - if they want to keep being big money people...

So, he didn't really "make" $2.6B, he just avoided a big downturn in his AUM.  When he covered the short positions, that would be "profit" on those positions as they are closed out (assuming he did).  Which he could then use that money however he wanted.  However, the rest of his portfolio did take a large hit - although its just a paper loss until you sell.  I suppose he could see a full $2.6B profit if Ackman holds his longs and  the Federal Reserve manages to puff enough hot air and fake money back into the market like in 2008/09.

The problem i had (and i was seeing this live on CNBC as FinTwitter was going ape real time on this), was that he was basically acting like a bitch and panicking on live TV, in an already jittery market environment and just adding fuel to the fire.  Maybe he did it "talking his book" in a calculated strategy.  Hard to know.  At least I can rest easy knowing he got taken to the cleaners by Carl Icahn over Ackman's now infamous Herbalife short positions, where he basically tried to do the same thing until someone with more power (Icahn) stepped in and crushed his skull.

[Syrmax]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People that work in restaurants don't get health insurance, people who are self employed many times don't have it due to the costs, many part time employees that work 2-3 jobs don't even get offered it. These are some of the 28 million. They still make a decent living but to receive insurance on their own as their employee won't subsidize it, it makes it impossible to pay the rest of their essential bills. I know medicaid pays for the VERY poor people of this country. But many people work extremely hard and still don't get offered insurance. My mom was a waitress for 20 years raising us, and never got offered health insurance.

So what you are really saying is that having health insurance is a "human right".  Its semantics but a key distinction.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Syrmax said:

Ackman's a d-bag.  Always has been, always will be.  However, CNN,  didn't portray the entire story as usual.  Ackman, in his full statement, claims he had enough hedges on (short positions) to counteract a certain amount of drawdown in  his funds under management.  This is pretty typical of big money traders and fund managers - if they want to keep being big money people...

So, he didn't really "make" $2.6B, he just avoided a big downturn in his AUM.  When he covered the short positions, that would be "profit" on those positions as they are closed out (assuming he did).  Which he could then use that money however he wanted.  However, the rest of his portfolio did take a large hit - although its just a paper loss until you sell.  I suppose he could see a full $2.6B profit if Ackman holds his longs and  the Federal Reserve manages to puff enough hot air and fake money back into the market like in 2008/09.

The problem i had (and i was seeing this live on CNBC as FinTwitter was going ape real time on this), was that he was basically acting like a bitch and panicking on live TV, in an already jittery market environment and just adding fuel to the fire.  Maybe he did it "talking his book" in a calculated strategy.  Hard to know.  At least I can rest easy knowing he got taken to the cleaners by Carl Icahn over Ackman's now infamous Herbalife short positions, where he basically tried to do the same thing until someone with more power (Icahn) stepped in and crushed his skull.

Yes, but the main point is you can make a ton of money in a down economy by shorting stocks. When things are falling as quickly as they have, you can make a **** load. It shouldn't be possible in an pandemic to make that kind of money...You basically are guaranteed that the economy is going to go down and thus take advantage of otherwise "insider information" to benefit greatly from a bad situation.

[Syrmax]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes, but the main point is you can make a ton of money in a down economy by shorting stocks. When things are falling as quickly as they have, you can make a **** load. It shouldn't be possible in an pandemic to make that kind of money...You basically are guaranteed that the economy is going to go down and thus take advantage of otherwise "insider information" to benefit greatly from a bad situation.

I have short positions in my trading account.  And i increased them yesterday figuring this is a short lived Bear Market relief rally.  It's a risk management tool and also a gamble, pure and simple.  They're leveraged 2x or 3x so they need constant attention and due to fade, they're not effective as long term holds.  I've lost on some of those short trades even as sh*tty as this March has been /was.  Short squeezes and bad timing are still a bitch.  I wish i had just gone 200% short back in early February like my gut told me to do.  Too indecisive.   Of course, i'm not on CNBC inciting market routs either...