Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[BuffaloWeather]

29 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

This a great 7 minute video on exponential growth and a really nice way they have found to graph it that exposes when exponential growth slows and begins to move linearly.  I highly recommend giving it a watch.

https://digg.com/video/coronavirus-exponential-growth-graph?fbclid=IwAR3EG6jWfBL-RDk-DWTbWBwtp62W37WLz7L9a1S6rBjz-UDseqNXR6nIOuM

 

Using their technique, it would appear Italy is close to slowing this thing down while the US is a rocket ship.
https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?fbclid=IwAR3vFckAwNVY8YFm7bFjHLPB-AgEOQDMnz0YpnCeHRE27wWOVftYB_qjxVU

Yeah I would think USA hits peak around April 15-20th. 

[wolfie09]

Yeah I was actually laid of before the coronavirus lol Working for a third party contractor is not always the best especially when they lose the contract lol

Luckily I will be eligible for an extension of at least 13 weeks after my last few weeks are up..

Hard for me to complain about$900 a week to sit on my ass, starting next week lol

Unemployment may have to continue to extend depending on how the job market looks when this is finally over...

[TugHillMatt]

Sooooo, got the news that New York State is telling schools to "forget the planned Spring Break" and continue education. To do that on the WEEK OF the expected break is disrespectful and maddening. I love my students...but this break was meant to be a MENTAL and EMOTIONAL break for teachers and students. My school has been working hard in educating our students virtually up to the start of break.

I feel this is just the state pushing teachers to have to keep students entertained and supplied for when there are some things PARENTS should be responsible for.

END RANT.

[BuffaloWeather]

How do you pay for health insurance?

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Sooooo, got the news that New York State is telling schools to "forget the planned Spring Break" and continue education. To do that on the WEEK OF the expected break is disrespectful and maddening. I love my students...but this break was meant to be a MENTAL and EMOTIONAL break for teachers and students. My school has been working hard in educating our students up to the start of break.

I feel this is just the state pushing teachers to have to keep students entertained and supplied for when there are some things PARENTS should be responsible for.

END RANT.

Are you a teacher? 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Are you a teacher? 

Yep! One of the most misunderstood professions ever.

I LOVE teaching, encouraging, challenging, and guiding kids of all ages. Being a sensitive man, teaching is definitely my calling. I taught for 6 years and then needed a break because I got burnt out from parents and their drama. Now I came back to the profession. Parents project all their issues on to teachers.

[wolfie09]

Unfortunately I do not have health insurance currently...It was kind of a poor decision on my part, I took a gamble and lost... I had health insurance through price chopper but decided to change jobs and wait for the next opportunity which never came.. Obviously me moving had a hand in that and a stupid one at that..

A lot of locals keep telling me to apply for fidelis..

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Unfortunately I do not have health insurance currently...It was kind of a poor discussion on my part, I took a gamble and lost... I had health insurance through price chopper but decided to change jobs and wait for the next opportunity which never came.. Obviously me moving had a hand in that and a stupid one at that..

A lot of locals keep telling me to apply for fidelis..

Yes, my wife and I didn't have Health Insurance until this winter as well. We went with Excellus (Blue Cross/Blue Shield) and got approved for the Essential Plan. It is an excellent option if your income level falls within a certain range.

[cny rider]

4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sooooo, got the news that New York State is telling schools to "forget the planned Spring Break" and continue education. To do that on the WEEK OF the expected break is disrespectful and maddening. I love my students...but this break was meant to be a MENTAL and EMOTIONAL break for teachers and students. My school has been working hard in educating our students virtually up to the start of break.

I feel this is just the state pushing teachers to have to keep students entertained and supplied for when there are some things PARENTS should be responsible for.

END RANT.

Step up, my man.

My kids parents both work in heath care.

We are busting our asses, literally risking our lives every day now to better and possibly save the lives of others.

It's not easy.....and having our kids home from school unexpectedly isn't making it any easier.

And you're bitching about having to work, as in actually performing the job you get paid for?  For an entire extra week? In a time of crisis like this, you're bitching about having to work and actually earn your pay and benefits?  Is the 10 weeks off you have coming up this summer not enough?  Do you not see the plight of so many others around you who got laid off and have no pay, and no benefits coming in?

How tone deaf can you be?

 

 

 

[TugHillMatt]

14 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Step up, my man.

My kids parents both work in heath care.

We are busting our asses, literally risking our lives every day now to better and possibly save the lives of others.

It's not easy.....and having our kids home from school unexpectedly isn't making it any easier.

And you're bitching about having to work, as in actually performing the job you get paid for?  For an entire extra week? In a time of crisis like this, you're bitching about having to work and actually earn your pay and benefits?  Is the 10 weeks off you have coming up this summer not enough?  Do you not see the plight of so many others around you who got laid off and have no pay, and no benefits coming in?

How tone deaf can you be?

 

 

 

Seriously?? I don't get benefits. I don't get the frickin summer off. I don't work a 9 to 5 job. I didn't take a position that pays well.  If you saw my post earlier, I don't even get health insurance.....and you know why I chose this position??? Because I love teaching kids and influencing them. I barely get paid to answer emails and phone calls and facetime chats and from 8 am to 10 pm....I could go on and on. You people on your high horses who think you know what teaching is like.....

Get off my flpping back...because I LOVE my job. I am walking alongside MANY families that are struggling with what to do. Parents who are nurses, policemen, etc..... Don't fricken judge me when you aren't even walking in my shoes. I didn't say I had it any worse. 

Once again, I don't get any benefits...none...and again...I LOVE my job. I just see the stress of all my students and their families. And no, 10 weeks of summer DON'T make up for all the UNPAID hours I work during evenings and weekends throughout the year.

But....you know what....I teach only because I care only about myself...isn't that why all teachers teach??? Puh lease.

Step off.

[Syrmax]

Interesting tidbit i caught in the daily podcast from Chris Martensen, regarding why Germany likely has such a low Case Fatality Rate...currently it's thought they are just doing a better job at testing more people.  And they're health care system has been able to cope better.  Typical German efficiency you could say.  It almost has to be because its not that they're much healthier than us on average (they smoke like fiends and drink Bier moreso than average American).  This aligns with a hypothesis (based on emerging data) that about 86% of COVID-19 cases are "undocumented".   Thus the denominator of the rate equation is likely understated - by a lot.   More to follow but IF this holds true, it would point to a CFR of ~0.4%, which is considerably lower than we are seeing right now in many countries.  It's still 4x worse than seasonal flu in terms of CFR but not orders of magnitude higher. The cluster areas that overwhelm local healthcare systems are one of the biggest problem with covid-19 as there is no "herd immunity" yet and populations / govt were not prepared to think about, much less rapidly do anything about, an outbreak like this.

If the above does eventually confirm, it would (in my mind) point to a general lack of preparedness to deal with a pandemic in many countries (US included).  This isn't a Trump thing as the lack of preparedness was identified in ten (10) separate reports by US Federal officials between 2003-2015, as reported recently by CNN.   Specifically, insufficient medical supplies, lifesaving and protective equipment (and especially ventilators) was pointed out during the last two Administrations.  Nothing was done.  Throw in this Administrations peculiar dysfunctionality and it's...not good.

What i'd expect to see going forward are procedures...public awareness efforts (should be easy now), equipment stores, plans to ramp up testing etc. in a rapid manner, all need upgrading so that the next time we don't put so many people, especially health care workers, at ridiculous amounts of risk.  And we can respond without having to panic into a global economic depression.  

[vortmax]

Based on some of the advances in vaccine development using CRISPR tech, I'm thinking we'll see better & quicker responses to pandemics in the future. There are many good things that will inevitably result from this terrible situation. Maybe we'll get ahead of them, even. 

[Syrmax]

5 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Based on some of the advances in vaccine development using CRISPR tech, I'm thinking we'll see better & quicker responses to pandemics in the future. There are many good things that will inevitably result from this terrible situation. Maybe we'll get ahead of them, even. 

I'd agree.  At the very least we need state and national based supplies of certain medical equipment.  Gloves, masks, faceshields, etc etc.  They're not THAT expensive normally esp when bought in bulk.  It's ridiculous that health care workers and providers are in the position they are in.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

LAST UPDATE: MARCH 30, 2020 | 3:58PM

Albany	217
Allegany	7
Broome	35
Cattaraugus	6
Cayuga	3
Chautauqua	5
Chemung	15
Chenango	17
Clinton	17
Columbia	26
Cortland	8
Delaware	11
Dutchess	392
Erie	376
Essex	4
Franklin	6
Fulton	1
Genesee	9
Greene	10
Hamilton	2
Herkimer	12
Jefferson	11
Lewis	2
Livingston	12
Madison	34
Monroe	242
Montgomery	6
Nassau	7,344
Niagara	41
New York City	37,453
Oneida	34
Onondaga	180
Ontario	20
Orange	1,435
Orleans	4
Oswego	14
Otsego	17
Putnam	167
Rensselaer	40
Rockland	2,511
Saratoga	105
Schenectady	80
Schoharie	6
Schuyler	2
St. Lawrence	13
Steuben	19
Suffolk	5,791
Sullivan	101
Tioga	4
Tompkins	66
Ulster	190
Warren	18
Washington	7
Wayne	15
Westchester	9,326
Wyoming	8
Total Number of Positive Cases	66,497

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, wolfie09 said:

LAST UPDATE: MARCH 30, 2020 | 3:58PM

Albany	217
Allegany	7
Broome	35
Cattaraugus	6
Cayuga	3
Chautauqua	5
Chemung	15
Chenango	17
Clinton	17
Columbia	26
Cortland	8
Delaware	11
Dutchess	392
Erie	376
Essex	4
Franklin	6
Fulton	1
Genesee	9
Greene	10
Hamilton	2
Herkimer	12
Jefferson	11
Lewis	2
Livingston	12
Madison	34
Monroe	242
Montgomery	6
Nassau	7,344
Niagara	41
New York City	37,453
Oneida	34
Onondaga	180
Ontario	20
Orange	1,435
Orleans	4
Oswego	14
Otsego	17
Putnam	167
Rensselaer	40
Rockland	2,511
Saratoga	105
Schenectady	80
Schoharie	6
Schuyler	2
St. Lawrence	13
Steuben	19
Suffolk	5,791
Sullivan	101
Tioga	4
Tompkins	66
Ulster	190
Warren	18
Washington	7
Wayne	15
Westchester	9,326
Wyoming	8
Total Number of Positive Cases	66,497

This is off. Erie is nearly 463 cases as of noon today...

[wolfie09]

Yeah that's from the department of health, they seem to be late to the party often lol

Just noticed they had 14 for Oswego which is off by a few. 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Mortality on the rise 4.81% globally

[DeltaT13]

3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Interesting tidbit i caught in the daily podcast from Chris Martensen, regarding why Germany likely has such a low Case Fatality Rate...currently it's thought they are just doing a better job at testing more people.  And they're health care system has been able to cope better.  Typical German efficiency you could say.  It almost has to be because its not that they're much healthier than us on average (they smoke like fiends and drink Bier moreso than average American).  This aligns with a hypothesis (based on emerging data) that about 86% of COVID-19 cases are "undocumented".   Thus the denominator of the rate equation is likely understated - by a lot.   More to follow but IF this holds true, it would point to a CFR of ~0.4%, which is considerably lower than we are seeing right now in many countries.  It's still 4x worse than seasonal flu in terms of CFR but not orders of magnitude higher. The cluster areas that overwhelm local healthcare systems are one of the biggest problem with covid-19 as there is no "herd immunity" yet and populations / govt were not prepared to think about, much less rapidly do anything about, an outbreak like this.

If the above does eventually confirm, it would (in my mind) point to a general lack of preparedness to deal with a pandemic in many countries (US included).  This isn't a Trump thing as the lack of preparedness was identified in ten (10) separate reports by US Federal officials between 2003-2015, as reported recently by CNN.   Specifically, insufficient medical supplies, lifesaving and protective equipment (and especially ventilators) was pointed out during the last two Administrations.  Nothing was done.  Throw in this Administrations peculiar dysfunctionality and it's...not good.

What i'd expect to see going forward are procedures...public awareness efforts (should be easy now), equipment stores, plans to ramp up testing etc. in a rapid manner, all need upgrading so that the next time we don't put so many people, especially health care workers, at ridiculous amounts of risk.  And we can respond without having to panic into a global economic depression.  

I agree with pretty much all of this. Here is the big question..  How well do we really know the flu numbers?  What if the denominator is actually far larger than we realize because similar asymptomatic carriers and mild symptoms.  In that scenario, COVID19 is once again 20-30 times more deadly.  I really wish we could just get some solid data but its a daunting task.  

[wolfie09]

In 1934, a doctor at a private boy’s school in Pennsylvania tried a unique method to stave off a potentially deadly measles outbreak. Dr. J. Roswell Gallagher extracted blood serum from a student who had recently recovered from a serious measles infection and began injecting the plasma into 62 other boys who were at high risk of catching the disease.

Only three students ended up contracting measles and all were mild cases.

The method, while relatively novel, was not new to science. In fact, the very first Nobel Prize in Physiology and Medicine was awarded in 1901 to Emil von Behring for his life-saving work developing a cure for diphtheria, a bacterial infection that was particularly fatal in children. His groundbreaking treatment, known as diphtheria antitoxin, worked by injecting sick patients with antibodies taken from animals who had recovered from the disease.

Von Behring’s antitoxin wasn’t a vaccine, but the earliest example of a treatment method called “convalescent plasma” that’s being resurrected as a potential treatment for COVID-19. Convalescent plasma is blood plasma extracted from an animal or human patient who has “convalesced” or recovered from infection with a particular disease.

“Convalescent plasma has been used throughout history when confronting an infectious disease where you have people who recover and there’s no other therapy available,” says Warner Greene, director of the Center for HIV Cure Research at the Gladstone Institutes. “There must be something in their plasma—i.e. an antibody—that helped them recover.”

Convalescent plasma interacts differently with the immune system than a vaccine. When a person is treated with a vaccine, their immune system actively produces its own antibodies that will kill off any future encounters with the target pathogen. That’s called active immunity.

Convalescent plasma offers what’s called “passive immunity.” The body doesn’t create its own antibodies, but instead “borrows” them from another person or animal who has successfully fought off the disease. Unlike a vaccine, the protection doesn’t last a lifetime, but the borrowed antibodies can greatly reduce recovery times and even be the difference-maker between life and death.

“Convalescent plasma is the crudest of the immunotherapies, but it can be effective,” says Greene.

After von Behring’s antitoxin was distributed worldwide to treat diphtheria in 1895, doctors experimented with the same passive immunity technique for curing measles, mumps, polio and influenza.

During the pandemic influenza outbreak of 1918 known as the “Spanish flu,” fatality rates were cut in half for patients who were treated with blood plasma compared to those who weren’t. The method seemed particularly effective when patients received the antibodies in the early days of their infection, before their own immune systems had a chance to overreact and damage vital organs. In the 1930s, doctors like Gallagher used convalescent plasma effectively against the measles.

By the 1940s and 1950s, antibiotics and vaccines began to replace the use of convalescent plasma for treating many infectious disease outbreaks, but the old-fashioned method came in handy yet again during the Korean War when thousands of United Nations troops were stricken with something called Korean hemorrhagic fever, also known as Hantavirus. With no other treatment available, field doctors transfused convalescent plasma to sickened patients and saved untold numbers of lives.

Greene says that convalescent plasma was even deployed against 21st century outbreaks of MERS, SARS and Ebola, all novel viruses that spread through communities with no natural immunity, no vaccine and no effective antiviral treatment. Today, the best treatment for Ebola is still a pair of “monoclonal antibodies,” individual antibodies isolated from convalescent plasma and then cloned artificially in a lab.

One of the best-known modern uses of convalescent plasma is for the production of antivenom to treat deadly snake bites. Antivenom is made by injecting small amounts of snake venom into horses and allowing the horse’s immune system to produce antibodies that neutralize the poison. Those equine antibodies are isolated, purified and distributed to hospitals as antivenom.

In March 2020, doctors at Johns Hopkins University began testing convalescent plasma as a promising stop-gap treatment for COVID-19 while the search continued for a permanent vaccine. The advantage of convalescent plasma is that it can be drawn from recovered patients using the same plasma separation technology used at blood banks.

"It's all doable,” says immunologist Arturo Casadevall, lead researcher on the COVID-19 study, “but to get it done it requires effort, organization, resources… and people who have recovered from the disease who can donate the blood." 

 

https://www.history.com/news/blood-plasma-covid-19-measles-spanish-flu?source=history&platform=facebook&postid=sf120016017&sf120016017=1

[Thinksnow18]

10 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah that's from the department of health, they seem to be late to the party often lol

Just noticed they had 14 for Oswego which is off by a few. 

 

 

I have nothing but vitriol for the New York State Department of health. Late to the party is an understatement. My wife is an MDS coordinator (RN) and has witnessed the worst conditions at her facilities even prior to this pandemic. The state dept is supposed to run checks in the form of what's considered survey of the facility. If the NY State dept of health had any semblance of a clue this facility would be either be faced with thousands of dollars in fines, owners forced to sell it or closed all together...instead they are given the equivalent of a 10 second time out. They are incredibly inept.

[tim123]

One of the true metrics for this is when you see the recovered start to match and outpace the cases. Unfortunately the ratio has been 4 new cases to 1 recovery and has been gaining slightly of past week. Long long long road ahead. 

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

One of the true metrics for this is when you see the recovered start to match and outpace the cases. Unfortunately the ratio has been 4 new cases to 1 recovery and has been gaining slightly of past week. Long long long road ahead. 

What were truly fighting is not this first wave but the second one to follow. We have to have a plan in place for that inevitably. We cannot just shut down and isolate again 6 months from now.

[cny rider]

11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously?? I don't get benefits. I don't get the frickin summer off. I don't work a 9 to 5 job. I didn't take a position that pays well.  If you saw my post earlier, I don't even get health insurance.....and you know why I chose this position??? Because I love teaching kids and influencing them. I barely get paid to answer emails and phone calls and facetime chats and from 8 am to 10 pm....I could go on and on. You people on your high horses who think you know what teaching is like.....

Get off my flpping back...because I LOVE my job. I am walking alongside MANY families that are struggling with what to do. Parents who are nurses, policemen, etc..... Don't fricken judge me when you aren't even walking in my shoes. I didn't say I had it any worse. 

Once again, I don't get any benefits...none...and again...I LOVE my job. I just see the stress of all my students and their families. And no, 10 weeks of summer DON'T make up for all the UNPAID hours I work during evenings and weekends throughout the year.

But....you know what....I teach only because I care only about myself...isn't that why all teachers teach??? Puh lease.

Step off.

I'm sorry.....it sounds like you are closer to volunteering at this point than working in a professional position.

We thank you for your service.

One good thing about volunteering is you can decide to do as much of it or as little of it as you like.  If it's stressing you out too much at current levels perhaps a reduction in workload is in order.

 

 

[tim123]

How long before some country takes advantage of this and attacks or invades another. 

[wolfie09]

From what I've heard 2 business owners in Pulaski have contracted the illness...

The first being the owner of Walgreens which was shut down for a few days to sanitize...

The Second being the owner(s) of ponderosa steakhouse who I've heard are in critical condition on ventilators...

[Buckeyes_Suck]

58 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How long before some country takes advantage of this and attacks or invades another. 

China basically just sent blankets to the entire world...

[Syrmax]

2 hours ago, tim123 said:

How long before some country takes advantage of this and attacks or invades another. 

yeah, i've been wondering this myself.  This is a very unstable period.  One candidate is a nation state that is close to breaking (Iran, NK?).  Russia is always a candidate for settling old scores but can't be in good shape with the collapse in oil prices, and who they would go after is another issue.  The collapse in oil prices hurts their economy particularly hard.  They're already in Syria and unofficially in eastern Ukraine.   India and Pakistan are always a tense situation.  Turkish adventurism could also increase although that would be more subtle and they are already meddling in Syria.  

I would be more leery of some sort of "asymmetric" financial attack...like China, Russia, etc, dumping US Treasuries or something like that, perhaps coordinated with China making a move with some of their offshore island claims.  It's long been posited that due to mutual economic dependence (similar to the Mutual Assured Destruction theories), the Chinese would be cutting their nose off to spite their face.  However, with the collapse in global trade, that equation may be changing.  If something like this did happen it would be sudden and unannounced, and timed to be at a point of maximum financial market instability.  

[Buckeyes_Suck]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

yeah, i've been wondering this myself.  This is a very unstable period.  One candidate is a nation state that is close to breaking (Iran, NK?).  Russia is always a candidate for settling old scores but can't be in good shape with the collapse in oil prices, and who they would go after is another issue.  The collapse in oil prices hurts their economy particularly hard.  They're already in Syria and unofficially in eastern Ukraine.   India and Pakistan are always a tense situation.  Turkish adventurism could also increase although that would be more subtle and they are already meddling in Syria.  

I would be more leery of some sort of "asymmetric" financial attack...like China, Russia, etc, dumping US Treasuries or something like that, perhaps coordinated with China making a move with some of their offshore island claims.  It's long been posited that due to mutual economic dependence (similar to the Mutual Assured Destruction theories), the Chinese would be cutting their nose off to spite their face.  However, with the collapse in global trade, that equation may be changing.  If something like this did happen it would be sudden and unannounced, and timed to be at a point of maximum financial market instability.  

This...I could see them claiming Taiwan and other islands in the South China Sea. I think if it were any other country the idea of us getting involved militarily would be highly unpopular given the situation with Covid 19 stateside. Like when Russia annexed Crimea a few years ago. However in this situation I'd say there would be fairly strong support to aggressively push China back, would would quickly escalate...

I do vaguely remember reading a book where Russia was forced into retaking the eastern block because 50% of its oil production was destroyed(by the KGB as an excuse), which isnt that far off from whats happening with the oil prices bottoming out.

[wolfie09]

I guess it's better than nothing lol

The NBA already has an official esports league with various teams represented, but with the live basketball season on hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic, it's reportedly about to put real NBA players on the sticks. Yahoo Sports reporter Chris Haynes cites league sources indicating that a 16-player NBA 2K tournament lasting 10 days will begin on Friday, with ESPN set to broadcast it.

With sports pretty much shut down around the world, networks are desperate for live content and athletes have nothing to do. So far, NASCAR has made the most noticeable shift to esports with races that it airs on Fox, and now the NBA is apparently ready to follow. Fox also aired a Madden tournament this past weekend, and can likely shift scheduled events around to do even more.