Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..

[wolfie09]

Starting to see some bigger increases in some states..

 

[MJO812]

Covid 19 test

http://covid19.kpolom.com/

[wolfie09]

SAN FRANCISCO — At least eight strains of the coronavirus are making their way around the globe, creating a trail of death and disease that scientists are tracking by their genetic footprints.

While much is unknown, hidden in the virus's unique microscopic fragments are clues to the origins of its original strain, how it behaves as it mutates and which strains are turning into conflagrations while others are dying out thanks to quarantine measures.  

Huddled in once bustling and now almost empty labs, researchers who oversaw dozens of projects are instead focused on one goal: tracking the current strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that cause the illness COVID-19.

Labs around the world are turning their sequencing machines, most about the size of a desktop printer, to the task of rapidly sequencing the genomes of virus samples taken from people sick with COVID-19. The information is uploaded to a website called NextStrain.org that shows how the virus is migrating and splitting into similar but new subtypes.

While researchers caution they're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, the tiny differences between the virus strains suggest shelter-in-place orders are working in some areas and that no one strain of the virus is more deadly than another. They also say it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve. 

“The virus mutates so slowly that the virus strains are fundamentally very similar to each other,” said Charles Chiu, a professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus first began causing illness in China sometime between mid-November and mid-December. Its genome is made up of about 30,000 base pairs. Humans, by comparison, have more than 3 billion. So far even in the virus's most divergent strains scientists have found only 11 base pair changes.

That makes it easy to spot new lineages as they evolve, said Chiu.

The outbreaks are trackable. We have the ability to do genomic sequencing almost in real-time to see what strains or lineages are circulating,” he said.

So far, most cases on the U.S. West Coast are linked to a strain first identified in Washington state. It may have come from a man who had been in Wuhan, China, the virus’ epicenter, and returned home on Jan. 15. It is only three mutations away from the original Wuhan strain, according to work done early in the outbreak by Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutch, a medical research center in Seattle.

 

On the East Coast there are several strains, including the one from Washington and others that appear to have made their way from China to Europe and then to New York and beyond, Chiu said..

 

Continue reading

[DeltaT13]

For the conspiracy theorists out there...  I know it’s a pretty crappy source, haha. Still an interesting read if even parts of it are true. 
 

https://metrovoicenews.com/21-million-fewer-cellphone-users-in-china-may-reveal-true-death-toll

[lakeeffectkid383]

Almost 100 new cases in Erie county confirmed today, even with extreme limited testing. 89 new cases today (an increase of 30%). Up to 310 total cases in Erie County. Also another death in the County, woman in her 40s. 
 

Also over 300 U.S. deaths for the first time today, up to 312 deaths today. 
 

edit (10pm) page just updated before switching over to tomorrow’s Numbers (March 28), deaths just skyrocketed to 400 in the US. So not only did we reach our first 300 death day but we hit our first 400 death day

[wolfie09]

I have no doubt China lost more than 3k people..

[wolfie09]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

@Luke_Mages

Heres another from linked in.

Well, I’ve got it. I hope my story helps. I hesitated to share this publicly, but if it can help ONE person make the right decision & be safe, it’s worth it. Last week I had a fever, dry cough, fatigue, & shortness of breath. I knew things weren’t right. My doctor recommended I go immediately to the ER. The ER immediately put me in quarantine, started every test you can imagine. They found COVID-19 pneumonia in both lungs, & frighteningly I was in sepsis. I was isolated in the hospital for 5 days. They threw every high powered antibiotic at me, they didn’t work. Finally they tried the ‘experimental’ drugs that many doctors are trying & it pulled me out of sepsis. After 5 days, I stabilized. I’m still fighting it. W everything I’ve got. But things are looking up. I can breathe. PLEASE take this serious. I’m young(ish) ;), healthy (gym 5 days a week, eat healthy, no underlying conditions), & it hit me hard. BUT don’t panic. We can beat this. But beating it means we take it serious. Stay at home if you’re able. Social distance if you can’t. Wash your hands. Be smart. TOGETHER, we can beat this. My family, my friends, my company #isg have been incredible. Supporting, praying some, encouraging all, & they lifted me up throughout this scary situation. #bestrong #together #fightingit

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Almost 100 new cases in Erie county confirmed today, even with extreme limited testing. 89 new cases today (an increase of 30%). Up to 310 total cases in Erie County. Also another death in the County, woman in her 40s. 
 

Also over 300 U.S. deaths for the first time today, up to 312 deaths today. 
 

edit (10pm) page just updated before switching over to tomorrow’s Numbers (March 28), deaths just skyrocketed to 400 in the US. So not only did we reach our first 300 death day but we hit our first 400 death day

We will be over 1,000 a day by next week. During the 2017-2018 flu season, 80,000 Americans died. Depending on when you start/end the flu season... I didn't even know the 2017-2018 flu season was anything of note until tonight.

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Deaths per Day

Dec-Feb- 889 per day

Nov-Mar- 533 per day

Oct-April- 381 per day

[BuffaloWeather]

https://deadline.com/2020/03/china-orders-re-closing-all-cinemas-nationwide-1202894103/

[Syrmax]

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

For the conspiracy theorists out there...  I know it’s a pretty crappy source, haha. Still an interesting read if even parts of it are true. 
 

https://metrovoicenews.com/21-million-fewer-cellphone-users-in-china-may-reveal-true-death-toll

The source is real, in fact they sum up what is known pretty well. I've read similar elsewhere.  Much of the data is being leaked out of China.  Noone knows what to make of it though.  It does make one wonder although I don't see how even the CCP could hide that many deaths (20M +). There's a lot of foreign eyes in there these days.

[WNash]

This is absolutely bonkers. The source is a religious information website in Kansas, but the story goes back to completely implausible, conspiracy-mongering sources like the Epoch Times and Breitbart. You can’t make 21 million bodies vanish. The PRC did their typical thing of trying to hush the virus story, but it was too big to be hidden. With extreme social control and contact tracing, they lowered the infection rate, but the virus is still out there. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the infection and fatalities are higher In China than reported, but in the last few days it seems like there’s an increased desperation on the part of the Trump-sympathetic media to claim that China undercounted deaths by orders of magnitude. Why the sudden attempt to make these explosive and unprovable claims? I think that as the horror of the coronavirus situation in the US becomes evident, there is an incentive to inflate the problem elsewhere to make Trump look better by comparison. 
 

This has been and still is being catastrophically mismanaged. What should have been a difficult but manageable public health crisis has turned into a runaway disaster in the US. Let’s be clear: at the current rate of infection increase, we are headed for an absolutely historic disaster, demographically and economically. I don’t see much being done to stop the biggest crisis in this country since the Civil War. We should be terrified and we should be enraged at the elites who brought us to this point and who still are trying to play their usual games. It is dumbfounding to see regular people try to fit this into their usual simple formula where everything is the fault of the other party. 
 

Every single person in power has failed us, and the people with the most power have failed us the most. We will be very lucky to escape this with only a million deaths and no social breakdown. But if you don’t hold the elites who let this happen to account, you actually deserve the immiseration that is likely going to hit us all.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@Luke_Mages

Heres another from linked in.

Well, I’ve got it. I hope my story helps. I hesitated to share this publicly, but if it can help ONE person make the right decision & be safe, it’s worth it. Last week I had a fever, dry cough, fatigue, & shortness of breath. I knew things weren’t right. My doctor recommended I go immediately to the ER. The ER immediately put me in quarantine, started every test you can imagine. They found COVID-19 pneumonia in both lungs, & frighteningly I was in sepsis. I was isolated in the hospital for 5 days. They threw every high powered antibiotic at me, they didn’t work. Finally they tried the ‘experimental’ drugs that many doctors are trying & it pulled me out of sepsis. After 5 days, I stabilized. I’m still fighting it. W everything I’ve got. But things are looking up. I can breathe. PLEASE take this serious. I’m young(ish) ;), healthy (gym 5 days a week, eat healthy, no underlying conditions), & it hit me hard. BUT don’t panic. We can beat this. But beating it means we take it serious. Stay at home if you’re able. Social distance if you can’t. Wash your hands. Be smart. TOGETHER, we can beat this. My family, my friends, my company #isg have been incredible. Supporting, praying some, encouraging all, & they lifted me up throughout this scary situation. #bestrong #together #fightingit

I never said there were 0 people under 60 being hospitalized, just that the story from twitter about the 25 YO was bs. The story about the 25 YO seemed like a planted fear mongering lie. And based on the fact that at that point there was only 1 death in the US from 18-40 I was most likely right. 

[wolfie09]

I'm gonna start walking around like this..

 

[cny rider]

Abbott is putting out a new test that will detect COVID infection in minutes.

It will be available in early April.

Imagine how different the course of this disaster would have been in America if we had that test a month ago.

If we had a pandemic response team at the NSC for example, or merely even a competent President who listened to briefings on what was happening in January and had started working with industry to get PPE stockpiled, and these rapid tests developed.

We would have been testing and rapidly isolating individual cases and outbreaks instead of watching thousands of Americans die as we are now.

 

 

 

 

[wolfie09]

Yeah here is an article about it..

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about 5 minutes.

Medical device maker Abbott announced the emergency clearance of its cartridge-based test in a release Friday night. The company says that its test delivers a negative result in 13 minutes when the virus is not detected.

The U.S. has been trying for weeks to ramp up coronavirus testing after a series of problems with the initial government-designed test. The nation’s daily testing capacity has been increasing as more diagnostic makers and large laboratories have developed tests.

Abbott’s testing cartridge fits into the company’s portable ID NOW device, which is used at hospitals, clinics and doctors’ offices. The company said it would launch the test next week to select health care facilities that deliver urgent care

The Abbott approval follows two other rapid tests cleared by regulators in the past week. Older laboratory-developed tests can take between 4 to 8 hours to deliver results.

Health experts say the U.S. should be testing 100,000 to 150,000 people per day to track and contain the virus. There are no official nationwide testing metrics, but private and public health labs currently report testing about 80,000 to 90,000 patients per day

[BuffaloWeather]

gods plan

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/progressivesecularhumanist/2020/03/pastor-who-claimed-covid-19-hysteria-was-plot-against-trump-dies-from-virus/

[BuffaloWeather]

https://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/news/state-news/perfectly-healthy-texas-dad-dies-after-contracting-coronavirus-family-says/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_KTAB_News

[BuffaloWeather]

I drove by Hamburg beach yesterday around sunset. I've never seen more cars there and people on the beach then I did yesterday. Not one parking spot open. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[wolfie09]

I haven't left my property since I stocked up on meat 10 days ago, I'm making damn sure I don't catch this virus. Lol

Even if it doesn't kill me, I don't wanna get sick, who enjoys flu like symptoms? I know I don't lol

[wolfie09]

Unfortunately the wifey still has to work right now..RAC is doing everything possible to remain somewhat open...They have cut staff down to 3 workers with the showroom closed..They are pretty much losing money day after day, majority of "essential" products are backordered through the end of April.. They have been getting ripped apart online by so called"customers"  when in reality they are employees unhappy that the store is still open lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

6 hours ago, WNash said:

This is absolutely bonkers. The source is a religious information website in Kansas, but the story goes back to completely implausible, conspiracy-mongering sources like the Epoch Times and Breitbart. You can’t make 21 million bodies vanish. The PRC did their typical thing of trying to hush the virus story, but it was too big to be hidden. With extreme social control and contact tracing, they lowered the infection rate, but the virus is still out there. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the infection and fatalities are higher In China than reported, but in the last few days it seems like there’s an increased desperation on the part of the Trump-sympathetic media to claim that China undercounted deaths by orders of magnitude. Why the sudden attempt to make these explosive and unprovable claims? I think that as the horror of the coronavirus situation in the US becomes evident, there is an incentive to inflate the problem elsewhere to make Trump look better by comparison. 
 

This has been and still is being catastrophically mismanaged. What should have been a difficult but manageable public health crisis has turned into a runaway disaster in the US. Let’s be clear: at the current rate of infection increase, we are headed for an absolutely historic disaster, demographically and economically. I don’t see much being done to stop the biggest crisis in this country since the Civil War. We should be terrified and we should be enraged at the elites who brought us to this point and who still are trying to play their usual games. It is dumbfounding to see regular people try to fit this into their usual simple formula where everything is the fault of the other party. 
 

Every single person in power has failed us, and the people with the most power have failed us the most. We will be very lucky to escape this with only a million deaths and no social breakdown. But if you don’t hold the elites who let this happen to account, you actually deserve the immiseration that is likely going to hit us all.

Until the mortality rate here in the US is higher than that of the median I strongly disagree with you. There was no stopping this once China lost initial containment, only slowing. Currently very few countries have a lower mortality rate than the US. 

[wolfie09]

Normally you would never pick unemployment over employment but with it being much safer at home and the stimulus package, it's an unwarranted risk ..The regular employees that got temporarily laid off are making double what the hourly managers are, to sit home lol

[Buckeyes_Suck]

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I haven't left my property since I stocked up on meat 10 days ago, I'm making damn sure I don't catch this virus. Lol

Even if it doesn't kill me, I don't wanna get sick, who enjoys flu like symptoms? I know I don't lol

The truth is that the sooner that the younger healthy population (you and I) gets this virus and recovers the better for the whole.  The caveat in that is that we not spread it To high risk populous. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

I haven't left my property since I stocked up on meat 10 days ago, I'm making damn sure I don't catch this virus. Lol

Even if it doesn't kill me, I don't wanna get sick, who enjoys flu like symptoms? I know I don't lol

I envision you have a cellar in your house filled with chicken, TP, space suits, and disinfectants.

Unfortunately, many of us are going to get this at some point in the next year...there isn't much way of avoiding it. The scary thing is the unknown of whether you will end up as a statistic.

[DeltaT13]

7 hours ago, WNash said:

This is absolutely bonkers. The source is a religious information website in Kansas, but the story goes back to completely implausible, conspiracy-mongering sources like the Epoch Times and Breitbart. You can’t make 21 million bodies vanish. The PRC did their typical thing of trying to hush the virus story, but it was too big to be hidden. With extreme social control and contact tracing, they lowered the infection rate, but the virus is still out there. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the infection and fatalities are higher In China than reported, but in the last few days it seems like there’s an increased desperation on the part of the Trump-sympathetic media to claim that China undercounted deaths by orders of magnitude. Why the sudden attempt to make these explosive and unprovable claims? I think that as the horror of the coronavirus situation in the US becomes evident, there is an incentive to inflate the problem elsewhere to make Trump look better by comparison. 
 

This has been and still is being catastrophically mismanaged. What should have been a difficult but manageable public health crisis has turned into a runaway disaster in the US. Let’s be clear: at the current rate of infection increase, we are headed for an absolutely historic disaster, demographically and economically. I don’t see much being done to stop the biggest crisis in this country since the Civil War. We should be terrified and we should be enraged at the elites who brought us to this point and who still are trying to play their usual games. It is dumbfounding to see regular people try to fit this into their usual simple formula where everything is the fault of the other party. 
 

Every single person in power has failed us, and the people with the most power have failed us the most. We will be very lucky to escape this with only a million deaths and no social breakdown. But if you don’t hold the elites who let this happen to account, you actually deserve the immiseration that is likely going to hit us all.

While I agree that this could have been handled much better initially I think your numbers are pretty extreme. As the death total accelerates additional action will be taken. Better testing is being developed daily, hospitals will gain experience on treating and identifying critical cases, more lockdowns will be put in place, increases in UV and humidity will likely slow transmission etc, etc.  We aren’t just going to sit here and watch a million people die  

Maintaining exponential growth beyond a few orders of magnitude would be exceptionally rare and require us to basically do absolutely nothing. That is obviously not the case here.  I agree this will be bad but saying a million people will die is ridiculous.  I would be extremely shocked if we even hit 50k deaths.  I’m thinking we end up somewhere around 20-30k before herd immunity takes over it and it blends in with other seasonal maladies. 

Once again, I’m not marginalizing this but I’m also not blowing it out of proportion. The US is on its heels right now but I expect to see social distancing efforts begin to show their worth in the coming weeks.  I’ve been sheltering in place since requested in this state. I know I’ll eventually catch it, I just don’t want to catch it during the peak when hospitals are under heavier pressure in case I end up developing severe complications. 

[MJO812]

RIP

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/nypd-detective-becomes-first-officer-to-die-from-coronavirus/?utm_campaign=iosapp&utm_source=facebook_app

[MJO812]

Trump mulls imposing coronavirus quarantine on New York, New Jersey Connecticut

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mulls-imposing-coronavirus-quarantine-on-new-york-new-jersey-connecticut

[BuffaloWeather]

BreakingNews: #Italy reports 5,974 new COVID19 cases and 889 new deaths. Total now 92,474 coronavirus cases and 10,023 deaths including 51 doctors : Italian Health Official