BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/26/3d-video-shows-covid-19-attack-lungs.cnn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 Some of the biggest increases in the us are down south like Florida and Georgia... Some northerners could be fleeing south by car.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 5909 new cases and 919 new deaths in Italy Cases are steady but those deaths are definitley a new high for them. Very sad. I think with extremely limited testing all over (even probably including NYC relative to their population) were going to see an Italy trend here in the US were the daily cases may reach a certain point and kind of level off in a range due to a testing capacity where we are unable to test beyond a certain point thus not able to see the number of cases still increase. Meanwhile deaths will keep rising as deaths don’t really have much correlation with testing (unless they’re testing in the hospital after they’ve arrived with symptoms even if they came in with no test prior to being admitted). Hopefully I am wrong but just don’t see how this is even close to peaking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Cases are steady but those deaths are definitley a new high for them. Very sad. I think with extremely limited testing all over (even probably including NYC relative to their population) were going to see an Italy trend here in the US were the daily cases may reach a certain point and kind of level off in a range due to a testing capacity where we are unable to test beyond a certain point thus not able to see the number of cases still increase. Meanwhile deaths will keep rising as deaths don’t really have much correlation with testing (unless they’re testing in the hospital after they’ve arrived with symptoms even if they came in with no test prior to being admitted). Hopefully I am wrong but just don’t see how this is even close to peaking here. We're 3 weeks behind Italy and they are still peaking. So that would make it seem like we are at least 3-4 weeks away from peaking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some of the biggest increases in the us are down south like Florida and Georgia... Some northerners could be fleeing south by car.. That and they are finally getting more testing there combined with the fact all the big time partiers were down south for spring break (ex. N.O. , Florida Beaches) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Some of the biggest increases in the us are down south like Florida and Georgia... Some northerners could be fleeing south by car.. And the oldest population in the USA is in Florida where they were extremely lax with their precautions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/26/3d-video-shows-covid-19-attack-lungs.cnn Thanks. I read an article a few days back that mentioned it wasn't necessarily the virus that was killing people, it was their body going into overdrive trying to fight the infection which in turn causes severe inflammation, seems to be what happened to this patient.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We're 3 weeks behind Italy and they are still peaking. So that would make it seem like we are at least 3-4 weeks away from peaking here. Agreed and not sure Italy is even peaking and their deaths are still rising. They may be at testing capacity so the number of cases is staying steady state as they are only testing the relative same number of cases each day where if they tested more each day they would find a further increase in positive cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: That and they are finally getting more testing there combined with the fact all the big time partners were down south for spring break (ex. N.O. , Florida Beaches) Yeah good point . This was my buddy last then a week ago down in Pensacola.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I'm wondering if many deaths in NYC are because alot of people have an underlying illness from 9/11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 Throwing in a little bit of sports, I would love to have some right about now to take my mind off this crap.. How does the Tampa Bay Yankees sound? How about St. Pete Yankees? Or Miami Yankees? No, the Yankees aren’t changing their name, but they could be playing home games in Florida this season if Major League Baseball determines Yankee Stadium is unsafe for crowds when the coronavirus-halted 2020 season gets underway in the next few weeks or months. According to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, possible alternative options for Yankees home games this season include: -- Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, home to the Yankees in spring training. -- Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg Fla., the non-retractable domed home to the Tampa Bay Rays since their first season in 1998. -- Marlins Park in Miami, the retractable domed home of the Miami Marlins since 2012. Everything on table,” Heyman tweeted. The options include the Yankees playing early-season home games in Florida, then returning to Yankee Stadium if and when all parties are comfortable opening the doors to fans. Because New York City is a hot spot for the coronavirus, the Mets playing home games in Florida – or somewhere else – is a possibility, as well. The same goes for the San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers, LA Angels and San Diego Padres because California also is among the most-affected states. If the Yankees move games to Florida, they’d probably get decent crowds because they always have a big following for their 8-to-10 annual road games against the Rays. The Yanks also had a big fanbase in Miami when they played the Marlins in a 2017 interleague series Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 My buddy said 5 new cases at his hospital in Batavia. Their first cases at that hospital so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Italy coming in with the highest single day death toll from any country since it all began. Still no clear sign anyone except China has peaked at this point. 919 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Italy coming in with the highest single day death toll from any country since it all began. Still no clear sign anyone except China has peaked at this point. 919 And I don't believe China...either their lock-down method is beyond anything the rest of the world is doing or they're lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Global morality rate: 4.59% US rate: 1.49% So even in the US, this virus is 15 times more deadly than the typical flu that spreads 2-3 times more quickly and has no vaccine. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html Virus transmission The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times. Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people. It's important to note that R0 is not necessarily a constant number. Estimates can vary by location, depending on such factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread, Live Science previously reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Global morality rate: 4.59% US rate: 1.49% So even in the US, this virus is 15 times more deadly than the typical flu that spreads 4-5 times more quickly and has no vaccine. Not sure on the actual US rate. I think the most we can conclude is a rate based on the # tested. We know nothing about the denominator. Even seasonal flu is a guesstimate of total affected. Edit: but as far as comps to other nation's total tested, its interesting. I don't think there's any way that "millions" are going to perish from this. Probably because actions have been taken. The numbers some were throwing around assumed no preventative measures taken. I think... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: And I don't believe China...either their lock-down method is beyond anything the rest of the world is doing or they're lying. I mean they were literally welding people into their homes and forcibly removing sick people by utilizing roving security forces. Couple that with communist style punishment for breaking lockdown rules and they really might have done a better job of containing the spread. That said, I’m certainly skeptical of the numbers myself (they seem too good to be true), but when things were raging over there, there was plenty of video evidence leaking out as proof and i can’t find anything anymore. They either really contained it or they clamped down on the internet and are preventing all info from getting out. Hard to know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Not sure on the actual US rate. I think the most we can conclude is a rate based on the # tested. We know nothing about the denominator. Even seasonal flu is a guesstimate of total affected. Edit: but as far as comps to other nation's total tested, its interesting. I don't think there's any way that "millions" are going to perish from this. Probably because actions have been taken. The numbers some were throwing around assumed no preventative measures taken. I think... I don't think I have ever gone to the doctors when I have the flu. So how would that number even be calculated? Doctors see patients with the flu and report it, the same thing is occurring here. There are no other ways to calculate it. If this comes back in the fall I can see millions dying across the world. If it doesn't come back it will likely end up being in the hundreds of thousands. Most doctors and scientists are saying this will be with us for 12-18 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean they were literally welding people into their homes and forcibly removing sick people by utilizing roving security forces. Couple that with communist style punishment for breaking lockdown rules and they really might have done a better job of containing the spread. That said, I’m certainly skeptical of the numbers myself (they seem too good to be true), but when things were raging over there, there was plenty of video evidence leaking out as proof and i can’t find anything anymore. They either really contained it or they clamped down on the internet and are preventing all info from getting out. Hard to know. China has complete control over the internet there. They can easily do information control, especially if no foreigners are allowed into the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: China has complete control over the internet there. They can easily do information control, especially if no foreigners are allowed into the country. Yep. Most countries control internet to some extent. When I was in Colombia I can remember access to sites being restricted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I don't think I have ever gone to the doctors when I have the flu. So how would that number even be calculated? Doctors see patients with the flu and report it, the same thing is occurring here. There are no other ways to calculate it. If this comes back in the fall I can see millions dying across the world. i am not sure on how they calculate seasonal flu other than CDC references estimated numbers of total infected - probably for the reason you mention. I've been insisting to "certain people" that i know that this really is more dangerous than seasonal flu but they refuse to believe it. OTOH, even CDC admits we don't have enough data yet to do a proper comparison and risk analysis. Which does make one wonder...what if it turns out its say, 2x more deadly. Was that worth an global economic depression? We'll see how the numbers shake out. From WaPo: By comparison, influenza — known as the common flu — has infected as many as 45 million Americans since October and killed as many as 46,000, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. President Trump invoked the large number of flu deaths each year in a tweet on Monday. Just now, BuffaloWeather said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 France went from 231 to 365 deaths the last 2 days. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 India is going to be absolutely horrific. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: India is going to be absolutely horrific. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ Of all the places one would think would be be poleaxed by a pandemic...India is near the top of that list... I wonder if their low numbers to date are more a function of their dysfunction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: China has complete control over the internet there. They can easily do information control, especially if no foreigners are allowed into the country. Agreed. Only elite hackers using vpn and proxy servers can get stuff out and they are few and far between I would imagine. The US probably has an impressive number of spies on the ground so we’d probably know if there was an apocalypse taking place over there. Seems impossible to have virtually zero local transmission only a month or so after peaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, Syrmax said: i am not sure on how they calculate seasonal flu other than CDC references estimated numbers of total infected - probably for the reason you mention. I've been insisting to "certain people" that i know that this really is more dangerous than seasonal flu but they refuse to believe it. OTOH, even CDC admits we don't have enough data yet to do a proper comparison and risk analysis. Which does make one wonder...what if it turns out its say, 2x more deadly. Was that worth an global economic depression? We'll see how the numbers shake out. From WaPo: By comparison, influenza — known as the common flu — has infected as many as 45 million Americans since October and killed as many as 46,000, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. President Trump invoked the large number of flu deaths each year in a tweet on Monday. Syrmax I have agreed with your logic for some time on this. There are people only concerned with the actual numbers that are reported but what about the estimated numbers? How many people actually go to the Dr. like BW said when they have flu-like symptoms? I have a fever or chest congestion that knocks me on my ass for days at least once a year and I don't go to my GP. What I find fascinating is that the death rate world wide is more likely about 2.5% if everyone was tested. Plenty of people with no symptoms or very mild symptoms but are positive. I believe as Iceland is reporting makes that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Syrmax I have agreed with your logic for some time on this. There are people only concerned with the actual numbers that are reported but what about the estimated numbers? How many people actually go to the Dr. like BW said when they have flu-like symptoms? I have a fever or chest congestion that knocks me on my ass for days at least once a year and I don't go to my GP. What I find fascinating is that the death rate world wide is more likely about 2.5% if everyone was tested. Plenty of people with no symptoms or very mild symptoms but are positive. I believe as Iceland is reporting makes that case. Even a 2.5% death rate is 25x that of the flu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/news/more-than-4000-nypd-members-call-out-sick-over-coronavirus Over 4000 cops are out sick and 550 have tested positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 Up to 100k confirmed cases in the us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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