Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

[nrgjeff]

European weeklies continue to keep the heat ridge focus elsewhere, though it'll be seasonably hot here.

First the Asia Bering sea North America ABNA index has shifted from positive to negative, with little net effect for the Valley. Asian side the ridge dropped from eastern Siberia / Mongolia / North China into South China. Over here the Great Lakes southeast Canada heat is forecast to shift more Plains, Texas and Southwest. Latter is already hot. Appears we in the Valley may luck out if the Great Lakes ridge does not drop into a SER. China may have a SER, lol. Southwest US and Texas appear to be the destination here.

European weeklies take the hand-off from the ECMWF ensembles with the Southwest US ridge and some extension into the Upper Midwest. Gives opportunity for weak fronts and more moderate humidity, but not really as cool as the 12Z ensemble depicted. Even when the Northeast US gets it at times, seems to go up and over us. That'll leave it humid though. ABNA and European weeklies have somewhat similar themes.

Cautiously optimistic after early this week intense heat (Mid South more than East Valley) will give way to more normal-ish August heat. With any luck no more big heat waves. However continue summer theme of steady hot.

[nrgjeff]

Looks like relatively nicer weather much of next week. Take the temps down a bit and dews will get into the 60s a couple days, nice compared to 90s/70s. However dews may be back late next week with precip. Following week temps and dews look seasonable. No complaints I suppose as we count down to Sept.

Euro weeklies aren't bad. They reflect the slightly lower temps next week; and, try to stretch it into the following week. Ensembles are normal in the 11-15 day, so I think seasonable unless a ton of precip. Outer weeks 3-4 show slightly warmer than normal, but normal temps will be falling. Verbatim that's not new heat.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, I can live with what I am seeing in the LR.  I know that is a short post, but Jeff pretty much covered it.  

[PowellVolz]

A little over 3” of rain this past week. Never seen my fescue look like this in August


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[PowellVolz]

Couple of pic from today. I took the first one and a friend took the second down in Athens Tn area. 2nd one is interesting. Almost looks like it has some striations or inflow in the clouds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Stovepipe]

12z NAM MOS predicting a nuke at TYS:

[Carvers Gap]

As alluded to earlier, definitely some hints that consistently AN heights may arrive again in September.  As Jeff noted, good thing is that norms begin to drop about then.  Just nothing like last year please...AN is livable, but not MUCH, MUCH AN.

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z EPS had a nasty ridge in the LR developing over the East.  Really hope that doesn't verify, but the 12z GEFS seemed to offer some support for it.

[nrgjeff]

Yes the end of the 11-15 day (both ensembles) and the 16-20 day (ECMWF weeklies) hint at some heat end of August beginning of September. See if it can reel into the 6-10 day, but I'm OK if it doesn't, haha! CFS does not echo the heat.

After Labor Day September looks fairly benign on the heat front. It's supposed to be so, but we know how the last few years went. Tropical cyclones may impact temps either way too.

Speaking of that, I cannot promise benign in the tropics. Starting in late August this MJO pulse might light up the Atlantic into early Sept. Gulf storms tend to behave like warm fronts for the South (outside of rain). East Coast storms can bring some heat relief back side, esp in Sept.

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes the end of the 11-15 day (both ensembles) and the 16-20 day (ECMWF weeklies) hint at some heat end of August beginning of September. See if it can reel into the 6-10 day, but I'm OK if it doesn't, haha! CFS does not echo the heat.

After Labor Day September looks fairly benign on the heat front. It's supposed to be so, but we know how the last few years went. Tropical cyclones may impact temps either way too.

Speaking of that, I cannot promise benign in the tropics. Starting in late August this MJO pulse might light up the Atlantic into early Sept. Gulf storms tend to behave like warm fronts for the South (outside of rain). East Coast storms can bring some heat relief back side, esp in Sept.

 

Well, I am secretly hoping for extremely cold air on December 5th - maybe even get some snow flying in the air.  For once, Florida is scheduled to travel to Knoxville during the last half of the season.  I can't remember that happening - may have to go back to when I was a kid or even further.  Normally, we get the antitheses to November in the Swamp.  Probably marginal chances that it gets played, but I hope they get the opposite of the heat that we have to play in during mid-September in Gainesville.   A night game would even be better.  Man, it is in the 90s with 90+% humidity down there during September.  Wind chills in the 20s with snow flurries would be optimum up here.  LOL.

[nrgjeff]

European weeklies want to end summer right on time. Looks like seasonably hot the end of August, in line with both Ensembles. Then the ECMWF weeklies follow the CFS at or below normal temps the first half of Sept. Such an evolution is reasonable with current MJO and ABNA expectations. Also active tropics and precip.

To celebrate I should probably post this in the fall thread, but I also talk about tropics. Maybe next time!

[Carvers Gap]

We have had rain IMBY but it has not been anything but excessive.   TRI is -0.79" below normal so far with only 1.58" recorded for the month at the airport....and I know one of those storms parked itself over TRI and nobody else got any.  So, the airport total is generous.  It is not bone dry by any means, but we are not getting the rains experienced at higher elevations.  Below is the graphic for the past 72 hours. Seems to fit the pattern for August so far.  So-so rainfall but impressive amounts within a couple hours drive.  Supposed to get some rain in the coming days.  I am only halfway griping, because I am tired of watering the garden!  LOL.  Valley areas are receiving much less than the rest of you all at higher elevations - I am a bit jealous!

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We have had rain IMBY but it has not been anything but excessive.   TRI is -0.79" below normal so far with only 1.58" recorded for the month at the airport....and I know one of those storms parked itself over TRI and nobody else got any.  So, the airport total is generous.  It is not bone dry by any means, but we are not getting the rains experienced at higher elevations.  Below is the graphic for the past 72 hours. Seems to fit the pattern for August so far.  So-so rainfall but impressive amounts within a couple hours drive.  Supposed to get some rain in the coming days.  I am only halfway griping, because I am tired of watering the garden!  LOL.  Valley areas are receiving much less than the rest of you all at higher elevations - I am a bit jealous!

 

That's just crazy to me, my grass won't dry out, it takes a full day of sun (which has been rare) to get the standing water from my yard. I guess this is why Tri is basically the driest reporting station in the state on average. It's raining here now and I've had 1.3 inches in the last couple of days. Should go over 8 inches for August today. 

[Met1985]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We have had rain IMBY but it has not been anything but excessive.   TRI is -0.79" below normal so far with only 1.58" recorded for the month at the airport....and I know one of those storms parked itself over TRI and nobody else got any.  So, the airport total is generous.  It is not bone dry by any means, but we are not getting the rains experienced at higher elevations.  Below is the graphic for the past 72 hours. Seems to fit the pattern for August so far.  So-so rainfall but impressive amounts within a couple hours drive.  Supposed to get some rain in the coming days.  I am only halfway griping, because I am tired of watering the garden!  LOL.  Valley areas are receiving much less than the rest of you all at higher elevations - I am a bit jealous!

Yeah over this way we have had anywhere from 9 to 15 inches of rainfall already this month. It has been crazy.  We are running some 1 and 1/2 feet above average currently in precipitation to date.

[dwagner88]

Dry here also. This is looking likely to be 2 months on the trot below normal. I think it’s been a couple of years since that has happened. July is normally the wettest month of the year here. I finished with >50% normal. 

[Carvers Gap]

You know the 12z EPS is pretty close to sending fall's first cool air mass into the East.  Probably more likely to drop into the middle of the continent first.  However, that is a pretty good blocking signature in d10-15.  

And yeah, feels pretty good to be saying all of that on August 23rd!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Also, I noticed the 12z GFS had a snowstorm in southwest MT and northern WY around hour 200.  Edit:  That is supported by both the 12z GEFS and EPS.  

[John1122]

I always love seeing the first Rocky Mountain snow storms showing up.  I'll never forget that the same time Hurricane Andrew was hitting that Montana and Wyoming were getting a snow storm. Winter starts really early in the Northern Rockies. 

I do wonder how much valley impacts the hurricanes this week will bring. The track of Laura seems to be trending west but I remember seeing somewhere that models have a western bias when dealing with tropical systems in the Gulf. I think it was something like 100-150 miles from D 5. 

 

Either way it looks like high school football may have to deal with the remnants from the right/rainy side of the track as it gets absorbed into the trough. 

[dwagner88]

The GFS has suddenly introduced heavy rain (2-3”) for tomorrow evening. Likely moisture from Marco interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. So far it is on its own in showing this. Interesting that it has shown up so late in the game. 

[PowellVolz]

The GFS has suddenly introduced heavy rain (2-3”) for tomorrow evening. Likely moisture from Marco interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. So far it is on its own in showing this. Interesting that it has shown up so late in the game. 

MRX is saying 2-4” Friday through Saturday. This has already been one of the wettest August I can remember in a long time, outside of a tropical system. This should help limit fires come this fall.


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[mempho]

So, there's absolutely zero discussion of a possible tropical storm in the Valley?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[dwagner88]

23 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

MRX is saying 2-4” Friday through Saturday. This has already been one of the wettest August I can remember in a long time, outside of a tropical system. This should help limit fires come this fall.


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Not here unfortunately. I’m well below normal for 2 months running now. 

[John1122]

Found the scholarly article about hurricane paths last night.  Even at 2 days out tracks were almost always too far west with systems in the Gulf of Mexico. The article did note that the more powerful the land falling storm that more likely it was to be within 75 miles of the forecast center track from day 2 at landfall.  Hurricane Michael, which was a cat 5 ended up only being about 65 miles East of the day 2 center track. Cat 2 and lower were normally over 100 miles East at land fall vs the day 2 track. Some with tracks similar to Laura ended up moving into the coast around Mobile to Panama City.

So even with all the guidance taking Laura in at the Texas/Louisiana border and heading into Arkansas, I won't be surprised if it never makes it that far West and it ends up heading more towards West Tennessee. 

[PowellVolz]

Not here unfortunately. I’m well below normal for 2 months running now. 

I was thinking you are in SE Tennessee?


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[Carvers Gap]

Six more days until meteorological summer wraps up in the forum area.   I tend to see fall as Sept/Oct/Nov in that(met) manner.  We are nearly close enough to begin seeing the first frost chances on the Weeklies runs.  August has been tolerable.   July may well prove to have been the high water mark in terms of temps as Jeff keenly noted a few weeks ago.   Going to be interesting to see where the tropical precip tracks.  Andy deficits in precip may be made-up quickly depending on the track.  Those with already high totals may set some records that will last for decades!

[dwagner88]

6 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I was thinking you are in SE Tennessee?


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Yep. Southeastern Hamilton county. Just been a run of bad luck here. Most of the surrounding area has had more rain, but I can’t seem to get lucky with scattered afternoon storms this year. 

[PowellVolz]

Yep. Southeastern Hamilton county. Just been a run of bad luck here. Most of the surrounding area has had more rain, but I can’t seem to get lucky with scattered afternoon storms this year. 

I’m north of Knoxville close to Union Co and we have had an unbelievable amount of rain. Wettest August I can ever remember. This is just from today.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Messing around with wind forecasts on the Euro this AM and saw this:

65 knot/ 74 mph gust in Crossville??? 

For those of you who have experience with these tropical remnants moving overhead, is this realistic? If so, glad I had a dying tree cut down last week. 

Is the "Max Gust" parameter, just the Max gust the model sees as possible, but not necessarily probable?

[nrgjeff]

Don't worry about that Euro chart. Use regular old surface wind progs. Believe it or not they are pretty good inland. 

I figure that Euro peak wind product is for individual strong/severe storm cells, based on CAPE and column water content. It's definitely not the circulation. 

Thanks @Carvers Gap for the keenly props, but I probably got lucky. I'm definitely thankful July was peak summer vs August.

Hello @mempho I certainly have inland Laura impacts in mind. I'm a sucker for Dixie Alley when tropical depressions bring low level shear well inland. More on that in the severe thread if I get time to write anything coherent. 

East moving remnant low will promote storm cell motion slightly right of the mean low level flow Friday. hmmm 

[AMZ8990]

On 8/24/2020 at 9:32 PM, mempho said:

So, there's absolutely zero discussion of a possible tropical storm in the Valley?

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I’m still thinking Arkansas takes the brunt of the tropical storm.  Won’t take much to put west Tn in the mix though.  Definitely something we need to keep a eye on