Late Spring / Summer 2020 Thread

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Mods have been hinting at several fronts making it past Tennessee during the month of June. Crazyness

Yeah, looks like a ridge is parked over the NW for a bit.  Seems like the summer pattern may well be periodic ridging building into the East but also periodic troughs giving us some nice, prolonged breaks.  I can live with that.  The Nina kicking in does concern me a bit in terms of summer hanging on again this year.   Seems like Nina Falls are scorchers.  

 

[jaxjagman]

Pretty fascinating how weather in East Asia could potentially correlate and match up pretty well.Here you have a trough around Southern Japan that develops a system close to the East China Sea with ridging building into Korea.Then look several days later you see basically the same type scenario with a trough in the SE that develops a system going into the GOM with ridging  into the Valley.It don't mean it will be right at this stage,i was just pointing out some basics with East Asia

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies show an expected warm-up but the ridge is stubbornly holding over the Rockies.  Not sure that makes it super cool here, but at least the mega ridge isn't parked over us.  I don't mind warm summers.  I don't like being under ridges.  I know endless summer is likely with La Nina, but I am cool if we can find an anomalously cool pattern this fall for once!  I mean with a week like this week, I feel like we have already have one less week of summer.  Bout ten more weeks, and we might be able to see the first cold fronts of fall on LR modeling.  So much better than last year so far.  Seemed like summer had already been here for six weeks by this time during June.

[jaxjagman]

We haven't gotten much rain here the past few weeks.Our yard was looking great a few weeks ago but now is getting brown patches

[weathertree4u]

23 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

We haven't gotten much rain here the past few weeks.Our yard was looking great a few weeks ago but now is getting brown patches

Yea, that map is pretty accurate. North of town, we are starting to dry out as well, need a good rain. This Spring has been unique, usually we have a couple of "gully washers" before we move into the dryness of Summer, not so this year!

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like another cool-off(BN temps) is showing up on modeling after this weekend's warm-up.  Then maybe the ridge holds for a bit to begin July.  Still, by mid July looks like the ridge wants to shift back into the front range of the Rockies.  For now, looks like temps will average out normal for June.  Given that we are approaching La Nina conditions, any month near normal is a steal.

Interestingly, the high yesterday at TRI was 66.  I saw some folks walking around in jackets.  

Definitely drying-out quickly west of I-81 in the TRI region.  We have managed to dodge rain in multiple ways during the past week IMBY.  

[Carvers Gap]

The Weeklies, FWIW, show a similar pattern continuing for the next six weeks.   Ridge builds eastward only to get knocked down by fronts/lows coming across North America.  For whatever reason, modeling really likes the ridge in the Mountain West.  Let's just hope this is not a repeat of last summer where we got a break during July....and then the mega furnace kicked in for weeks on end.    So far, this summer has been about as nice as one could ask for minus one really hot stretch.

[nrgjeff]

Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada.

The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along.

This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid.

East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend! 

[jaxjagman]

On 6/17/2020 at 4:35 AM, weathertree4u said:

Yea, that map is pretty accurate. North of town, we are starting to dry out as well, need a good rain. This Spring has been unique, usually we have a couple of "gully washers" before we move into the dryness of Summer, not so this year!

Probably should have been expected but parts of the Valley west of I-65 went into a more abnormal drought,looks like an unsettled period coming up.We had a decent cell come through yesterday but we need more

 

South

Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.

 

[jaxjagman]

21 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada.

The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along.

This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid.

East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend! 

Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July

[jaxjagman]

Euro switched out on recent long range runs.This afternoon it shows a trough in the east with shortwaves spinning along.The low level shear  30-35kts would be a potential drought buster for us into next weekend,not sure i'd trust it right now tho

[jaxjagman]

Probably wait and see if the timing is right.In East Asia the last day or two there has been a more Baiu-front where heights build into China and an ULL North of Japan and some sort of boundary in between which goes stationary for a time,these fronts can be big rain makers in East Asia,into the early summer

[Carvers Gap]

Been a great summer so far.  Looks like roughly normal through July if any of the Weeklies can be believed - no death ridge yet.  My fingers are crossed that the atmosphere will have a Nino hangover just long enough to get us through early and mid fall.  Then, the Nina comes with early cold before warming to AN for part of winter.  A person can hope, right!?  Sitting at exactly normal for June with a 0.0 departure.  

[jaxjagman]

Euro and Control today are hinting at a potential low which gets cut off somewhat or more slowly meanders around the Valley.But it's still to far off to trust, but there is a trough the next couple days which will slowly move through South Korea.Thus could be a potential odd summer time big rain maker upcoming with really nothing to kick it to fast.You can actually spot it  pretty well using the CAG today

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z JUN26
                6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000 
                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850 
                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK 
FRI 12Z 26-JUN                                          21.4     572     140    
FRI 18Z 26-JUN                          0.04            25.9     573     140    
SAT 00Z 27-JUN  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.05            24.1     574     140    
SAT 06Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            20.1     573     140    
SAT 12Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            20.9     570     140    
SAT 18Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            27.1     572     141    
SUN 00Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            24.8     573     141    
SUN 06Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            21.9     573     141    
SUN 12Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            22.4     572     140    
SUN 18Z 28-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.06            29.6     574     142    
MON 00Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.07            27.7     576     142    
MON 06Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.07            23.3     576     141    
MON 12Z 29-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08            23.4     574     141    
MON 18Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.08            31.4     577     142    
TUE 00Z 30-JUN  0.03    0.03    0.00    0.11            27.1     577     142    
TUE 06Z 30-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.12            23.8     576     142    
TUE 12Z 30-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.12            24.2     575     141    
TUE 18Z 30-JUN  0.12    0.11    0.00    0.23            28.9     575     142    
WED 00Z 01-JUL  0.10    0.10    0.00    0.34            25.7     575     142    
WED 06Z 01-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.34            23.1     574     141    
WED 12Z 01-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.34            23.7     573     141    
WED 18Z 01-JUL  0.17    0.16    0.00    0.51            26.5     574     141    
THU 00Z 02-JUL  0.14    0.12    0.00    0.65            24.4     574     141    
THU 06Z 02-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.66            21.8     574     141    
THU 12Z 02-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.68            22.5     573     140    
THU 18Z 02-JUL  0.08    0.07    0.00    0.75            27.9     575     141    
FRI 00Z 03-JUL  0.21    0.18    0.00    0.96            24.4     576     141    
FRI 06Z 03-JUL  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.96            21.3     575     141    
FRI 12Z 03-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.96            22.1     575     140    
FRI 18Z 03-JUL  0.02    0.01    0.00    0.98            29.2     577     142    
SAT 00Z 04-JUL  0.06    0.03    0.00    1.04            26.0     578     142    
SAT 06Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.04            22.0     577     141    
SAT 12Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.05            23.2     575     141    
SAT 18Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.05            30.4     577     142    
SUN 00Z 05-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    1.06            27.2     576     142    
SUN 06Z 05-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    1.07            23.9     574     141    
SUN 12Z 05-JUL  0.07    0.00    0.00    1.14            21.0     572     140    
SUN 18Z 05-JUL  0.51    0.03    0.00    1.65            22.3     572     140    
MON 00Z 06-JUL  0.82    0.08    0.00    2.47            21.9     574     140    
MON 06Z 06-JUL  1.38    0.22    0.00    3.85            21.4     575     140    
MON 12Z 06-JUL  3.05    0.23    0.00    6.90            21.3     575     140    

[PowellVolz]

Euro and Control today are hinting at a potential low which gets cut off somewhat or more slowly meanders around the Valley.But it's still to far off to trust, but there is a trough the next couple days which will slowly move through South Korea.Thus could be a potential odd summer time big rain maker upcoming with really nothing to kick it to fast.You can actually spot it  pretty well using the CAG today
 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689                                           12Z JUN26               6 HR    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL    SFC     2 M    1000    1000                 QPF     CVP     PCP     QPF     PCP     TMP     500     850                (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    (IN)    TYPES    (C)     THK     THK FRI 12Z 26-JUN                                          21.4     572     140    FRI 18Z 26-JUN                          0.04            25.9     573     140    SAT 00Z 27-JUN  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.05            24.1     574     140    SAT 06Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            20.1     573     140    SAT 12Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            20.9     570     140    SAT 18Z 27-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            27.1     572     141    SUN 00Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            24.8     573     141    SUN 06Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            21.9     573     141    SUN 12Z 28-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.05            22.4     572     140    SUN 18Z 28-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.06            29.6     574     142    MON 00Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.07            27.7     576     142    MON 06Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.07            23.3     576     141    MON 12Z 29-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.08            23.4     574     141    MON 18Z 29-JUN  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.08            31.4     577     142    TUE 00Z 30-JUN  0.03    0.03    0.00    0.11            27.1     577     142    TUE 06Z 30-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.12            23.8     576     142    TUE 12Z 30-JUN  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.12            24.2     575     141    TUE 18Z 30-JUN  0.12    0.11    0.00    0.23            28.9     575     142    WED 00Z 01-JUL  0.10    0.10    0.00    0.34            25.7     575     142    WED 06Z 01-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.34            23.1     574     141    WED 12Z 01-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.34            23.7     573     141    WED 18Z 01-JUL  0.17    0.16    0.00    0.51            26.5     574     141    THU 00Z 02-JUL  0.14    0.12    0.00    0.65            24.4     574     141    THU 06Z 02-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.66            21.8     574     141    THU 12Z 02-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    0.68            22.5     573     140    THU 18Z 02-JUL  0.08    0.07    0.00    0.75            27.9     575     141    FRI 00Z 03-JUL  0.21    0.18    0.00    0.96            24.4     576     141    FRI 06Z 03-JUL  0.01    0.00    0.00    0.96            21.3     575     141    FRI 12Z 03-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    0.96            22.1     575     140    FRI 18Z 03-JUL  0.02    0.01    0.00    0.98            29.2     577     142    SAT 00Z 04-JUL  0.06    0.03    0.00    1.04            26.0     578     142    SAT 06Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.04            22.0     577     141    SAT 12Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.05            23.2     575     141    SAT 18Z 04-JUL  0.00    0.00    0.00    1.05            30.4     577     142    SUN 00Z 05-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    1.06            27.2     576     142    SUN 06Z 05-JUL  0.01    0.01    0.00    1.07            23.9     574     141    SUN 12Z 05-JUL  0.07    0.00    0.00    1.14            21.0     572     140    SUN 18Z 05-JUL  0.51    0.03    0.00    1.65            22.3     572     140    MON 00Z 06-JUL  0.82    0.08    0.00    2.47            21.9     574     140    MON 06Z 06-JUL  1.38    0.22    0.00    3.85            21.4     575     140    MON 12Z 06-JUL  3.05    0.23    0.00    6.90            21.3     575     140    

Cut off Low? It’s about time. Haven’t seen one of those in a week or so.


.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like a warm couple of weeks beginning in a couple of days.  If the Euro Weeklies are correct, the ridge which pushes eastward will revert back into the West yet again by mid-July.  We will see if that verifies.  Seems to have been the pattern this summer.  TRI is at 0.0 in terms of temp departures from normal - meaning we are normal here.  That means we have basically stolen four potential warm weeks from summer's grasp.  In about four more weeks, we will begin to get a better idea of how early fall will unfold on some modeling.  

[PowellVolz]

Looks like a warm couple of weeks beginning in a couple of days.  If the Euro Weeklies are correct, the ridge which pushes eastward will revert back into the West yet again by mid-July.  We will see if that verifies.  Seems to have been the pattern this summer.  TRI is at 0.0 in terms of temp departures from normal - meaning we are normal here.  That means we have basically stolen four potential warm weeks from summer's grasp.  In about four more weeks, we will begin to get a better idea of how early fall will unfold on some modeling.  

I’ve had about eight inches of rain over the last two weeks. There was 40ish roads closed in west Knox the other day after that conveyor belt of storms came through. What’s even more crazy is one of my friends just east of Jackson Tn is begging for rain. He went over 10 days at one point.


.

[AMZ8990]

10 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I’ve had about eight inches of rain over the last two weeks. There was 40ish roads closed in west Knox the other day after that conveyor belt of storms came through. What’s even more crazy is one of my friends just east of Jackson Tn is begging for rain. He went over 10 days at one point.


.

Heavy rain last night for just about everybody In south west Tn.  McNairy County has some real bad flooding today In Selmer as well.

[Carvers Gap]

23 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I’ve had about eight inches of rain over the last two weeks. There was 40ish roads closed in west Knox the other day after that conveyor belt of storms came through. What’s even more crazy is one of my friends just east of Jackson Tn is begging for rain. He went over 10 days at one point.


.

Pretty amazing for sure.  Good example of that phenomenon just in E TN depicted on an MRX tweet.  Some areas of Knoxville look like they received 4-5" of rain.  We finally got a storm on Tuesday that produced well here.  Prior to that, it was getting pretty dry.  The Plateau(I know John as shared his huge amounts of recent rain) has done well.  NE TN can get in a bit of a rut during summer.  We have a weak rain shadow in every direction but to our southwest.   Depending on where one is in the TRI will greatly influence which rain shadow is most influential.  In Kingsport, northwest flow of any kind is usually gobbled up by the mountains to our NW in KY and SW VA.  That said, we do really well on SLPs which track to our SE as those often produce more lift here.  Opposite is generally true for Johnson City.  Then, there is the weird snow convergence zone between JC and Kingsport which @Holston_River_Rambler has shown a few times.  But yeah, Knoxville has scored big during the past week.  

I know Jeff has said it a few times, there are some similarities to Chattanooga and TRI in how precip can be diminished at the valley floor.  Sometimes it is just comical.  Good to see some folks getting rain.  That might keep the drought monster(and extreme heat) at bay for a bit longer.  I think many areas have caught-up just a bit since that graphic was produced on the 29th for that 12 hour time frame.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

On 6/20/2020 at 1:48 PM, jaxjagman said:

Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July

Fairly impressivel.Control did a seemingly nice job in the long range possibly sniffing this pattern out upcoming.To give it some credit, there is a ridge the Euro shows into East Asia building into the mid week and a trough a few days later so this possibly will not be nothing more than a transient warm spell.But could be a good one

[Carvers Gap]

Well, we knew we couldn't dodge it forever.  The furnace has kicked in big time.  Looks like very warm temps for a couple of weeks.  The Euro Weeklies and CFS Weeklies do hint that it will back off by later this month and into August.  I am sort of glad that the heat is kicking.  It might mean that the heat does its thing.  Then, we go into a typical fall pattern - maybe.  I give this shot of heat 14-20 days before it runs its course, and then we see another front knock back the temps.  Again, sometimes summers that get started late last well into fall...so, having summer right now is a good thing IMHO.  Ground here is definitely getting very dry with the heat.  We have not had near the rain that others have had.  FTR, I still think this ridge backs into the Rockies during the second half of July.  But....this is a hot time of year, so it is still going to be warm.

[nrgjeff]

I was hoping for just 2-3 weeks of harsh summer, but I should know better in developing Nina. Euro weeklies just cued up some Bananarama Cruel Summer. 

CFS was mild late July but I'm afraid that is too good to be true. Truth may end up in between. This +ABNA pattern wants to hammer the Great Lakes and Canada. Puts us on the soft underbelly of the ridge. Not too hot, but humid as all hell.

Next week may shed light. Euro has been consistently intense. Record CDDs (not high temps) but national CDDs on mainly low temps and solid consistent heat. If that heat falters (like a couple previous attempts) carry on status quo. If that heat comes in, we could have a cruel July both South and North.

I'm not sure if I'd like a break in August at the expense of possible September, or just get it over with core of summer. Come late August the answer would be clear, lol core summer option in the rear view mirror.

Oh well it's summer in the South. We caught some breaks up to this point. Might as well get it over with. Only 6-7 weeks of really bad climo.

[Windspeed]

[Carvers Gap]

Yep, IMHO we have flipped quickly to a Nina pattern.  Tonight's Euro Weeklies do offer some hope as the worst of the 500 anomalies switch to the Mountain West by August.  But I know that once these death ridges go into place...they have been tough to budge.  Right now, MBY is depending on stray thunderstorms for anything in the way of moisture.  You Plateau folks need to send some of that our way in the TRI(west of 26).  I was really hoping the Nino hangover pattern would hang on through September.  Maybe we can still get a little milage from it.  But whew!  The heat is here.  What makes it tougher is that May and June were pleasant - so not acclimated to this yet!

[Stovepipe]

I was happy to get lucky and have one form pretty much on top of me today and got a good heavy soaking.  We needed it.

[nrgjeff]

BOHICA! That's a scientific term for July gonna July. If you believe that, I have some beachfront property in Kansas. 

Welp. Maybe we can get it over with during the climo core of summer, and actually have a fall. Must. Think. Positive. 

It'll probably drag into August. July and August correlate fairly well, especially the steady heat like is forecast. Real peaky stuff can fade out in Aug. Doubt this year. Don't see 100 degree highs with the ridge centered northwest of here. Do see consistent steady 90s about half of which might be 95s (not including TYS, MRX). Good time to be in TRI, lol!

Don't get me started on the humidity. I know I say this every year, but isn't this bad even for the South? I mean we're not Deep South / Gulf Coast. Dews should east off the mid-70s to more like upper 60s (afternoons) when the heat gets going. Still low 70s mornings.

Closing on a bright note. Sunday! July 12. Can we get enough turning with height? I know that's serious weenie wishing for NW flow in July. Need something to hold onto right now. 

[jaxjagman]

Gotta love the heat island

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies across Middle Tennessee with little to no
shower/thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and evening
except for the plateau areas. After another dry day tomorrow,
decent shower and thunderstorm chances (40-50%) are anticipated
for Sunday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, and with
showers arriving in the morning hours for areas along the
Tennessee River any development will need to be watched closely.
the main threat will be gusty winds, so have a plan to quickly
seek shelter on Sunday morning and afternoon if you are outside.

We`ll just skip over Monday and Tuesday and get right to the
extended forecast. Do you like summer heat and humidity boys and
girls? Well if your birthday is next week and that`s what you`re
wishing for, Happy Birthday from us here at the National Weather
Service in Nashville! We all chipped in and got you a nice 594m
ridge axis at 500mb over the state for Thursday and Friday, with
850mb temps warming to 20-22C as early as Wednesday. Surface
dewpoints will be in the low 70s so expect Heat Index values to
easily be 105 degrees, with some areas possibly approaching 110
degrees around Nashville and for areas along the Tennessee River.
The ECMWF suggests the heat may stick around through the weekend,
but the GFS hints at maybe some shower activity developing Friday
and continuing through the weekend. We`ll see what happens then,
but the heat and humidity is a guarantee for Wednesday through
Friday.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Gotta love the heat island

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies across Middle Tennessee with little to no
shower/thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and evening
except for the plateau areas. After another dry day tomorrow,
decent shower and thunderstorm chances (40-50%) are anticipated
for Sunday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, and with
showers arriving in the morning hours for areas along the
Tennessee River any development will need to be watched closely.
the main threat will be gusty winds, so have a plan to quickly
seek shelter on Sunday morning and afternoon if you are outside.

We`ll just skip over Monday and Tuesday and get right to the
extended forecast. Do you like summer heat and humidity boys and
girls? Well if your birthday is next week and that`s what you`re
wishing for, Happy Birthday from us here at the National Weather
Service in Nashville! We all chipped in and got you a nice 594m
ridge axis at 500mb over the state for Thursday and Friday, with
850mb temps warming to 20-22C as early as Wednesday. Surface
dewpoints will be in the low 70s so expect Heat Index values to
easily be 105 degrees, with some areas possibly approaching 110
degrees around Nashville and for areas along the Tennessee River.
The ECMWF suggests the heat may stick around through the weekend,
but the GFS hints at maybe some shower activity developing Friday
and continuing through the weekend. We`ll see what happens then,
but the heat and humidity is a guarantee for Wednesday through
Friday.

 

 

LOL.   Well, crap.  And that is a top 5 afternoon disco of all time.  That is awesome.  

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

BOHICA! That's a scientific term for July gonna July. If you believe that, I have some beachfront property in Kansas. 

Welp. Maybe we can get it over with during the climo core of summer, and actually have a fall. Must. Think. Positive. 

It'll probably drag into August. July and August correlate fairly well, especially the steady heat like is forecast. Real peaky stuff can fade out in Aug. Doubt this year. Don't see 100 degree highs with the ridge centered northwest of here. Do see consistent steady 90s about half of which might be 95s (not including TYS, MRX). Good time to be in TRI, lol!

Don't get me started on the humidity. I know I say this every year, but isn't this bad even for the South? I mean we're not Deep South / Gulf Coast. Dews should east off the mid-70s to more like upper 60s (afternoons) when the heat gets going. Still low 70s mornings.

Closing on a bright note. Sunday! July 12. Can we get enough turning with height? I know that's serious weenie wishing for NW flow in July. Need something to hold onto right now. 

When Jeff uses "BOHICA" in a post about the long term pattern, we know things in the wx world are about to go to crapcon 1.  

Man, we got absolutely drilled by a storm this evening.  That humidity and sun are creating some heavy hitters.  What is crazy is I can look at a storm and the normal rules don't apply. I have seen east to west storms.  I have seen storms to my west on a true north to south trajectory.  We have been hit from the southeast by storms.  I have seen storms form and not move at all.  But we got hammered today.   Half of my corn got knocked over.  It was a really howler.  VERY thankful for the water!!!

[Carvers Gap]

I certainly hope the 12z GEFS and EPS ensembles are correct.  They do continue to imply that the ridge backs westward.  The 12z GFS was all-in on that today...But when is it not?  LOL.