Sw NC weather Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 I saw a few snow flurries this morning. Oh yeah, it’s also May if y’all forgot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Really neat cloud structure over the Black Range this evening. I see some lenticulars I believe. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 Looks like we are going to warm up but the GFS is advertising another cool down in about a week. Probably more unsettled weather also. It looks like we keep pushing back this hot and dry pattern a few have alluded to since the beginning of March. Obviously we are in the middle of May and we are not dry nor have we been hot. I think we may see some bouts of hot and dry towards the end of July into August but that is not uncommon at all for that time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 On 5/13/2020 at 4:11 PM, Met1985 said: Looks like we are going to warm up but the GFS is advertising another cool down in about a week. Probably more unsettled weather also. It looks like we keep pushing back this hot and dry pattern a few have alluded to since the beginning of March. Obviously we are in the middle of May and we are not dry nor have we been hot. I think we may see some bouts of hot and dry towards the end of July into August but that is not uncommon at all for that time of the year. Expand Euro still shows warm and dry with a slight cool down early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 Both the EURO and the GFS have a trough cutting off and sitting over us for a few days. This will keep us unsettled and below average again starting around the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 On 5/14/2020 at 3:10 PM, Met1985 said: Both the EURO and the GFS have a trough cutting off and sitting over us for a few days. This will keep us unsettled and below average again starting around the 19th. Expand Yea the Euro has caved and shows up to 4 inches of rain on the escarpment next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Enjoy the weekend because it looks like we will be back in the rain and below average starting around Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Looks like flooding concerns for the southern and eastern escarpment coming this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Hope everyone’s ark shipped this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 Yeah I am seeing some big numbers showing yo here and around the escarpment areas. Looks like some 2 to 6 inches of rainfall this week. Hunter details this very well in his video this evening. Rainforest I agree we need to keep an eye on the flood potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 12:45 AM, Met1985 said: Yeah I am seeing some big numbers showing yo here and around the escarpment areas. Looks like some 2 to 6 inches of rainfall this week. Hunter details this very well in his video this evening. Rainforest I agree we need to keep an eye on the flood potential. Expand I think with the low level SE flow the Blue Ridge escarpment will get slammed. 6 to locally 10 inches in places like Brevard up to Caldwell County if the orientation sets up right. Luckily the antecedent conditions have been pretty dry and water levels are low or normal on local streams 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 12:58 AM, wncsnow said: I think with the low level SE flow the Blue Ridge escarpment will get slammed. 6 to locally 10 inches in places like Brevard up to Caldwell County if the orientation sets up right. Luckily the antecedent conditions have been pretty dry and water levels are low or normal on local streams Expand Yeah I was thinking the same thing. We have gone through a bit of a dryer spell so that is good but that is a lot of rainfall in 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 12:41 AM, BooneWX said: Hope everyone’s ark shipped this weekend I'm over this week's weather and it hasn't even gotten started. Long range looks unsettled, too. Really hope this doesn't ruin rhododendron season. Early blooms have been really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Not positive but willing to bet it’s 1/5th of what is predicted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 It has begun! Moderate to heavy rain this morning with this little batch coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 3:01 AM, RT1980 said: Not positive but willing to bet it’s 1/5th of what is predicted! Expand These cutoffs like this can be real hard to nail down where the precipitation really sets up and trains over. Im taking the more increased totals because since November we have over shot our totals by a lot seems like every good storm that has come through. This wont be a rain out by no means but we will get a training effect of storms and heavy rain that will result in some big totals, not to mention we will have oragraphical lifting on the lee side of the mountains and the southern escarpment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Not quite the mountains, but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 11:02 AM, Solak said: Not quite the mountains, but still... Expand Yeah looks like some big rains all around in the state. Will be interesting to see unfold as the week goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 Steady rain the past few hours already and picking up. The freshly planted garden will love this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 10:38 AM, Met1985 said: These cutoffs like this can be real hard to nail down where the precipitation really sets up and trains over. Im taking the more increased totals because since November we have over shot our totals by a lot seems like every good storm that has come through. This wont be a rain out by no means but we will get a training effect of storms and heavy rain that will result in some big totals, not to mention we will have oragraphical lifting on the lee side of the mountains and the southern escarpment. Expand Agreed. I can't recall when historic flooding hasn't verified over the past two years lol. It's been an insanely wet period over western NC as of late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Should be a “fun” few days. Also for Wednesday/Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Well over 1” here already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 On 5/18/2020 at 2:09 PM, Rainforrest said: Well over 1” here already. Expand Yeah still raining here. Been raining since 6 this morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Those are some 10-inch pixels for 5-day QPF in the WNC mountains... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Just letting everyone know I survived tropical Storm Arthur. I actually had to go indoors for a few hours and it stinks in there. #cooperreleasethehousekeepers ! Hope you guys don't wash away. Someone is going to get some ridiculous totals by Thursday. My gauge back home is already at 1.89. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 We have been pretty lucky so far with only .60. The worst of it looks to be tonight until Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 On 5/19/2020 at 1:19 AM, SnoJoe said: Just letting everyone know I survived tropical Storm Arthur. I actually had to go indoors for a few hours and it stinks in there. #cooperreleasethehousekeepers ! Hope you guys don't wash away. Someone is going to get some ridiculous totals by Thursday. My gauge back home is already at 1.89. Expand Glad your safe Joe! We will batten the hatches down here or release the boats one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Almost an inch here in foscoe already. Absolutely dumping with more development downstream. I'll be surprised if we go more than a couple hours without precip through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 Man you can already tell the lee side of the mountains are just getting hammered last night and this morning and this has really only began. Im afraid big flood problems are in the works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Surprisingly, I've only gotten 0.68 inch out of this flow so far. However, as the orientation turns more SE to NW, I do expect a significant increase. I'm not complaining, though. I prefer my rainfall in sustained gentle showers rather than intense tropical downpours.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now