1st PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM DT

[Guest someguy]

[Macintosh]

DT do you have any forecasts out for the Midwest?

[NortheastPAWx]

Any room for further NW shifts at this time?

[winter_warlock]

looks good DT for being 3 -4 days out. i suspect youll will update it as models come more in line

[EasternUSWX]

Any room for further NW shifts at this time?

Of course. He likely took a mix of the GFS and Euro. Though if the euro was right everything would shift NW.

[midatlanticweather]

Thanks Dave! The hard thing at this point, I believe, will be the ratios out west. Where I think (totally based on models) the 10 to 1 ratio shows the probability that you depict and precip will be less west, I think ratios will offset that quite a bit. So 18 to 1 is my thinking for the Charlottesville to Dulles area. Now, I am biased as this is where I live so the snow weenie in me has a lot to do with this!

Now, of course this is just thinking at this point based on such low temps in the profile. What you have depicted is a great probability outlook based on what we are currently seeing on the Euro.

[Stebo]

Good luck out there guys :snowman:

[Redmorninglight]

DT, liking where I am, right in the middle of your bulls-eye! Enjoy reading your posts and appreciate your insight. Keep it up.

[Solo2]

DT,

If the EURO continues it stubbornness this evening....would these probabilities be likely to shift NW? I think it is an excellent initial indication of the chances though.

[Bob Chill]

Looks like a really good call with what has been happening on the models. I know a lot of people who live in the south half of VA (especially RIC and VA Beach area) have been frustrated for quite some years so this storm is going to make a lot of people happy if it pans out.

One question DT: What are your thoughts about mixing along the coast due if the storm actually deepens to what is modeled? Low center stays pretty close to shore from NC to DE.

[jerseystorm]

Looks like a good compromise,nice map Dave!

[weatherweather]

Nice forecast. I like the use of probability combined with amounts instead of just throwing out amounts.

[jdt]

Any room for further NW shifts at this time?

I obviously cannot answer for DT but at 96-120 hrs out there is definitely room for adjustments either way though perhaps not equal probabilities of shifting one way over another. That is way this is just a preliminary probability map. I think it is an excellent map at this range giving the model guidance at this point. The Euro has been huge the last 3-4 runs and the GFS is slowly but steadily moving in that way along with the NAM. Also the GGEM and UK have been in or heading toward a similar camp. Not 100% consenses but you can feel the mood is leaning towards a bigger event. If the guidance continues with this idea for the next 24-36 hours then I suspect we can much much more confidently believe this will come to be reality.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

solid, considering its still Wed. Youve been on this from the get-go...good stuff!

lol @ NW shift requests. "hey Dave, do you think I can be in area A?" i kid i kid.

[JMU2004]

nicely done Dave.

Might expand things a bit west into WV, but you are the expert.

[WeatherFox]

We've been tracking & analyzing this potential snowstorm for days and it is still 4-5 days away. As for me, I'm much more conservative and would want to wait another day or two before sticking my neck out. Forecasting has indeed made significant progress over the past 35 years. Forecasting will never be perfect and the weenie in me hopes that all the pieces come together for one or two nice snowstorms this winter and for this one in particular.

Good luck with your probability forecast DT and thanks much for your efforts.

[strongwxnc]

Good call DT. In line with KGSP (nc) thoughts as of this afternoon's AFD. Looking for some lift in the lee of the mountains here in WNC.

[Paweatherguy1]

I would say that a nw shift is less likely....

[Dr No]

No disagreements here. Good probability forecast with the consistency of the Euro Op and trend westward in the other guidance.

[Guest someguy]

if you look at the qpf maps pf the 0z and 12z euro the precip shield to the west drops off and gives very lttle to pit and to ALB

[Paweatherguy1]

if you look at the qpf maps pf the 0z and 12z euro the precip shield to the west drops off and gives very lttle to pit and to ALB

Yea dave, not much hope out here. Only hope here is if the precip field end up larger than the euro.

[Zelocita Weather]

Looks like a good compromise,nice map Dave!

Compromise?, looks like pure EURO influence. Hopefully he and the EURO are right.

[Organizing Low]

if you look at the qpf maps pf the 0z and 12z euro the precip shield to the west drops off and gives very lttle to pit and to ALB

it looks to me using the poorman maps

at 00z

ALB 0.5-0.75

12z

ALB a little more than 0.5

[Carvers Gap]

DT. Would the energy that is coming out of the NW phase enough w/ the southern branch to see 1-4" on the west side of the Apps - SW VA, NE TN, possibly the central TN Valley? With upslope snow, those totals could go up.

[ezweather]

I like the format.. Although you could add a table next to the geographic map that would include those probabilities. I think these are the kinds of products that make forecast more meaningful.. Plus gives folks lead time prior to a major event.

So, very nice graphic..

[JMU2004]

if you look at the qpf maps pf the 0z and 12z euro the precip shield to the west drops off and gives very lttle to pit and to ALB

sure....but I just think that a storm that strong will have a larger precip shield. Also, higher elevation in eastern WV will have upslope component.

[buckeye]

Yea dave, not much hope out here. Only hope here is if the precip field end up larger than the euro.

that's ok...we're holding out for the deep snows from the upper level energy dropping thru

[SteveB]

Well made map as always David!

Are you not issuing a condition Bravo or Alpha for this or waiting a few more runs as it's still early in the game, so-to-speak? Thanks.

[real]

God, if area C verified, that would be at least some snow from Atlanta to Maine. When is the last time that happened in a big Storm. I know Blizzard of 93, but has it happened since then?

[Fozz]

Any room for further NW shifts at this time?

This. I can definitely use a NW shift (or expansion, since I don't want Richmond to be screwed), but it looks decent, and we're fortunate that DT is even making a forecast this far out.