STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is but those who have been skunked all season are right on the edge again. We need to trend it deeper and spread the love to the coastal folks too. Ya coastal folks in late March ... need a biggie . Something with good mid levels at least . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 another rainy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Keep it weak, Keep it south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Guessing widespread interior 3-5 with anything higher confined to higher elevations. Weaker storms in marginal situations don't work for everyone. Once euro (cmc as well) falls in line this will probably be the reality. To go with it this event, no matter how much falls, will likely be the last time we see snow OTG until October at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Haven't looked at the models in a while, surprised with what im seeing this morning. Hopefully we can get one last snow event before this blowtorch summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: This storm is in a progressive flow again. Something to watch because it would not take much to make this a non-event. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week. Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C. Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows. The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite. It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type. And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario. It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week. Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C. Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows. The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite. It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type. And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario. It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ... If they do come to fruition, one of the benefits of working from home is not having to rush to get the driveway cleared to get to work by 7:00 am. Leave it to melt because I'm not going anywhere anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Icon is wet. Looks like that 100 hour Euro pumpfake at 12z yesterday isn’t going to happen. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon is wet. Looks like that 100 hour Euro pumpfake at 12z yesterday isn’t going to happen. Shocking Euro has been atrocious. Worst model this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 The second storm looks more wet to me than white. A week out so usual caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Nam looks good ya- I know but better than looking not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 NAM is thumpy south of the pike. Good hit for CT RI and interior SE Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has been atrocious. Worst model this winter. Says who LOL. It's been better than the GFS and the GFS has been horrendous with fantasy snowstorms every single week for 10 days out and they never came to fruition. The Euro has been more consistent in the sense of not showing that same thing. So I respectfully disagree with you on that statement. Just looking at the facts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam looks good ya- I know but better than looking not good Dont look at the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Says who LOL. It's been better than the GFS and the GFS has been horrendous with fantasy snowstorms every single week for 10 days out and they never came to fruition. The Euro has been more consistent in the sense of not showing that same thing. So I respectfully disagree with you on that statement. Just looking at the facts Every model has struggled this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Gfs is just some rain and snow showers. Just a bit different than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't mean to say that we're gonna get skunked...I just think this is trending more toward an advisory type snowfall with maybe a stripe of low end warning based on how the upper air has trended a bit more open and progressive....it's possible it ticks back a little deeper, but for now, I'd hedge weaker. Weaker also brings the BL more into play as well for the lowlands. I made a comment yesterday that H5 didn't seen supportive of a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I made a comment yesterday that H5 didn't seen supportive of a big event. Yeah it was a tight squeeze for sure...12z Euro yesterday plus a few other stray runs did manage to get H5 to kink enough to create a pretty nice ML circulation....but we've seen it revert back to more open wave status overnight and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it was a tight squeeze for sure...12z Euro yesterday plus a few other stray runs did manage to get H5 to kink enough to create a pretty nice ML circulation....but we've seen it revert back to more open wave status overnight and today. More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out. The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front. This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out. The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front. This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like. Yeah agreed. These are more of the type of event where if you leave the 4-5 inches of paste on your car when you wake up, by 12pm, it's slumping off your hood and by 3pm your driveway is melted out and completely dry with only shaded parts of the lawn still snow covered.....versus getting smoked by 17" and maybe actually dealing with one semi-cold CAA day afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 12z TT CMC...follow the leader? Interior Mass looks to win if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Ukie was also a bit healthier looking. Still a bit warm for a lot of SNE (though cooler than previous runs), but it hammered ORH county and W MA/NW CT and into NH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Euro is mostly an advisory for SNE NW of I-95 (including CT/RI)...prob some low end warning amounts from ORH county to W MA and into S/C NH and S/C VT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Will this be wet paste even in hills ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is mostly an advisory for SNE NW of I-95 (including CT/RI)...prob some low end warning amounts from ORH county to W MA and into S/C NH and S/C VT. Is it a grass only deal or will this stick to pavement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 2-4” will help ease the tension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will this be wet paste even in hills ? 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is it a grass only deal or will this stick to pavement? Paste...even in the hills. Maybe not once you get up into Mitch's hood or other elevations over 2k. It will stick to pavement if it comes down hard enough. Rates always trump temps when it comes to stickage. We'll see how the rates look as we get closer, but the more open wave idea would make me a little bit skeptical of big rates. However, the Euro did look a little healthier today aloft, so we cannot rule out a nice period of heavy snow if that continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is mostly an advisory for SNE NW of I-95 (including CT/RI)...prob some low end warning amounts from ORH county to W MA and into S/C NH and S/C VT. But Ray said 5h, lol he Jack's on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2-4” will help ease the tension. I would like nothing more than to sled for an hour or two with the kid on Monday. Snow heals my emotional wounds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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