SluggerWx Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 PDS Tornado Warning on the Abilene cell, velocity couplet is maxed out across a couple different radar tilts. This is bad news.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Yowza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: PDS Tornado Warning on the Abilene cell, velocity couplet is maxed out across a couple different radar tilts. This is bad news. While this may seem like open country, the area of strong rotation either passed over or close to a major state prison facility (as I mentioned in a previous post). A well-built prison would probably be able to take a tornado hit well, but outbuildings would be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Tiny tornado vortex signature (near Albany TX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 The area of rotation looks like it is going to go over Albany. This could be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 The storm north of Breckenridge is now beginning to enter areas previously impacted by tornado-warned supercells several hours ago. Areas like Graham, Bryson, and Jacksboro could be in the path once again if this storm stays on its present path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Really hoping this is the last of those monsters this morning. Don't need a severe weather outbreak in the metroplex during morning rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Graham is once again under a tornado warning, albeit at the northeastern-most edge of the warning polygon. It seems they had a tornado in the area with the previous round of storms, and this new warning only adds insult to injury. I'm worried that this supercell might try to take a similar path to the earlier storm that moved over Chico and Alvord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Rotation appears to be getting weaker and more disorganized around Jacksboro. Hopefully this storm is finally starting to wind down, and if so, that would be a relief for places like Chico and Alvord that were hit earlier. But you never know if it might restrengthen. EDIT: tornado warning has been dropped. I believe this storm had a tornado warning continuously since prior to moving over/near Sterling City, NW of San Angelo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 I am now in the precipitation shield here in west Fort Worth, hearing occasional rumbles of thunder. Hopefully this will put a damper on any severe storm activity here in DFW moving forward, although the 10z HRRR does show a strong supercell moving into the southern metro around 2 hours from the time of this post (I doubt that will happen though; EDIT: 11z HRRR does not show storms nearly as strong). There might be more storms around in the afternoon, but that is nowhere near guaranteed for the DFW area (maybe areas to the east are more likely to see more severe storms). Some of the following pertains more to the Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum, but I am going to post it here considering this has been the main thread for this event. I have noticed several HRRR and RAP runs might keep the warm front in Iowa a bit further south than anticipated. While southern IA was not the highest-risk area for tornadoes on the initial Day 1 outlook (SE MO to SW IN was), I am wondering whether the risk there might be a bit overstated. On the other hand, there may be the possibility for severe storm activity further east, as HRRR and RAP runs suggest an area of high helicity will move over IN and OH. If these HRRR and RAP runs are correct, this area of high helicity may correspond with some surface instability and precipitation in the area around 0z this evening, although the 10z HRRR backs off and does not get surface instability up into central Ohio (while other HRRR/RAP model runs do bring this instability at least as far northeast as Columbus). I would not be surprised to see tornado and severe storm probabilities increased further to the east, in association with what appears to be a warm frontal zone, if these models are on to something. EDIT: it seems SPC thinks that SW Iowa and SE Nebraska could be a hotspot for later severe thunderstorm activity. A 10% tornado contour was added there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 We JUST missed a disaster in Abilene last night. This is about as textbook of a violent tornado presentation on radar as you’re ever going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Just now, DanLarsen34 said: We JUST missed a disaster in Abilene last night. This is about as textbook of a violent tornado presentation on radar as you’re ever going to see. Velocity couplet is included in the image that’s embedded in the tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 An area between my hometown of Shenandoah, IA and Omaha, NE would be a good spot to chase this afternoon from the hilltops. Monitoring a potential severe threat here in NE TX as well. HRRR shows some activity here that could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Could see some late afternoon/early evening storms across DFW clearing ahead of convective line east of SPS is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 The 15z HRRR has a pretty ridiculous updraft helicity track from SW IA through Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 It'll be interesting to see how those showers over the Midwest affect the severe weather potential later this afternoon and tonight. My initial concern is that those showers are going to stabilize things to the point where the severe weather coverage will be rather limited. Modeled CAPE remains impressive south of warm front though so if that holds true still could be in for an active afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 SPC looking like they're going to pull the trigger on a severe storm watch for the DFW metro into eastern Oklahoma & western Arkansas EDIT: Wow they went with a full on tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, cheese007 said: SPC looking like they're going to pull the trigger on a severe storm watch for the DFW metro into eastern Oklahoma & western Arkansas EDIT: Wow they went with a full on tornado watch Thought they would because of the mention of increased moisture off to the eastern sections of the area in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Thought they would because of the mention of increased moisture off to the eastern sections of the area in particular. Do wonder about Dallas proper not being included and some points wets not being included in at least a severe storm watch. That incoming line dips pretty far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Well, remember they did include the classic phrase in reference of "persons in and close to the watch area." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Meso discussion also out for area from KC north to Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Tornado watch for SE NE, southern IA, and northern MO. Initiation already occurring in SE NE and extreme SW IA in the form of discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 A storm near Essex, IA is already starting to show signs of being a discrete supercell with 1-2" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Tornado warning south of OMA. Strange looking cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 The fort smith cell looks concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This tornado-warned storm has tracked northeastward from Fort Smith metro area. (near Mulberry, AR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Today has been kind of low on the storm report total, given the two different enhanced-risk areas. This is a radar-confirmed tornado north of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 A little surprised that the possibility of EF 2 or greater tornadoes was raised to moderate in the new overnight watch. Must be the low level jet and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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