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Severe Weather March 15-19


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4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

PDS Tornado Warning on the Abilene cell, velocity couplet is maxed out across a couple different radar tilts. This is bad news.

While this may seem like open country, the area of strong rotation either passed over or close to a major state prison facility (as I mentioned in a previous post).  A well-built prison would probably be able to take a tornado hit well, but outbuildings would be a concern.

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Graham is once again under a tornado warning, albeit at the northeastern-most edge of the warning polygon.  It seems they had a tornado in the area with the previous round of storms, and this new warning only adds insult to injury.

I'm worried that this supercell might try to take a similar path to the earlier storm that moved over Chico and Alvord.

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Rotation appears to be getting weaker and more disorganized around Jacksboro.  Hopefully this storm is finally starting to wind down, and if so, that would be a relief for places like Chico and Alvord that were hit earlier.  But you never know if it might restrengthen.

EDIT: tornado warning has been dropped.  I believe this storm had a tornado warning continuously since prior to moving over/near Sterling City, NW of San Angelo.

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I am now in the precipitation shield here in west Fort Worth, hearing occasional rumbles of thunder.  Hopefully this will put a damper on any severe storm activity here in DFW moving forward, although the 10z HRRR does show a strong supercell moving into the southern metro around 2 hours from the time of this post (I doubt that will happen though; EDIT: 11z HRRR does not show storms nearly as strong).  There might be more storms around in the afternoon, but that is nowhere near guaranteed for the DFW area (maybe areas to the east are more likely to see more severe storms).

Some of the following pertains more to the Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum, but I am going to post it here considering this has been the main thread for this event.

I have noticed several HRRR and RAP runs might keep the warm front in Iowa a bit further south than anticipated.  While southern IA was not the highest-risk area for tornadoes on the initial Day 1 outlook (SE MO to SW IN was), I am wondering whether the risk there might be a bit overstated.  On the other hand, there may be the possibility for severe storm activity further east, as HRRR and RAP runs suggest an area of high helicity will move over IN and OH.  If these HRRR and RAP runs are correct, this area of high helicity may correspond with some surface instability and precipitation in the area around 0z this evening, although the 10z HRRR backs off and does not get surface instability up into central Ohio (while other HRRR/RAP model runs do bring this instability at least as far northeast as Columbus).  I would not be surprised to see tornado and severe storm probabilities increased further to the east, in association with what appears to be a warm frontal zone, if these models are on to something.

 

EDIT: it seems SPC thinks that SW Iowa and SE Nebraska could be a hotspot for later severe thunderstorm activity.  A 10% tornado contour was added there as well.

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It'll be interesting to see how those showers over the Midwest affect the severe weather potential later this afternoon and tonight.  My initial concern is that those showers are going to stabilize things to the point where the severe weather coverage will be rather limited.  Modeled CAPE remains impressive south of warm front though so if that holds true still could be in for an active afternoon and evening.

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21 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

SPC looking like they're going to pull the trigger on a severe storm watch for the DFW metro into eastern Oklahoma & western Arkansas

EDIT: Wow they went with a full on tornado watch 

Thought they would because of the mention of increased moisture off to the eastern sections of the area in particular.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Thought they would because of the mention of increased moisture off to the eastern sections of the area in particular.

Do wonder about Dallas proper not being included and some points wets not being included in at least a severe storm watch. That incoming line dips pretty far south

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