Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2020 Author Share Posted March 18, 2020 Storm initiation seemed to happen south of where the forecast guidance (HRRR for the forecast reflectivity) on SPC mesoanalysis suggested it would be. This could mean that there is more of a concern for DFW down the line if these cells hold together, considering the HRRR guidance suggested that these initial supercells around Abilene would wind up northwest of DFW. If you extrapolate the forecasted motion from the model then these storms could end up going across the northern DFW metro area. EDIT: I'm watching that supercell SW of Cisco for sure. It has unimpeded inflow and is trying to develop a hook. I am concerned about this storm following the I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Best helicity is still west and sw of where current storms are located. But as SPC meso discussion noted this is expected to move east as the evening progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 It seems like the expected uptick in helicity is now taking place. We are going to need to watch these highlighted areas (among others) for the possible development of low-level rotation. I also marked the portion of that line south of Abilene given the higher EHI there; this will probably be where any severe thunderstorm threat for the Metroplex would come from later tonight (unless something forms ahead of that). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 752 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTH CENTRAL SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 751 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POTOSI, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EULA AROUND 755 PM CDT. CLYDE AROUND 805 PM CDT. BAIRD AROUND 810 PM CDT. Good call, Brandon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Legit couplet on the 0047Z scan, but didn't look as impressive again during the actual warning. Appeared to be line-embedded. A supercell now appears to be trying to get going out ahead of that, will pass west of Breckenridge. Discrete storms look to have been struggling to become sustained all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Strong rotation couplet moving east of Jacksboro, near Runaway Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 That's-a spicy meat-a-ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Confirmed tornado north of Breckenridge, near Crystal Falls. Watch that area to the south as well. The area of storms between Breckenridge and Cisco could be trying to develop rotation as well. A right-moving supercell forming there could be a concern for DFW down the line if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Very close call for Chico TX in the next few minutes, there's a pretty significant TDS with that storm. Edit; Rotation looks very mean now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 The northern metro could be in trouble if this continues as well as concerns from that cell farther sw that Brandon mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Looks like twins are radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 There hasn’t been a substantial CC drop yet, but there’s definitely a major tornado in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 That'll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Triplets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Strong couplet back east of Graham too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This cell is bonkers. It’s had at least two well-defined couplets for several scans. Now, there might be three! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Don't like the right turn these all made one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Those cells west of Fort Worth need to be watched very carefully now that the low level helicity has arrived in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 I suspect the anvil rain from the upstream storms is keeping that lead cell from going off more than it already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Just now, 1900hurricane said: I suspect the anvil rain from the upstream storms is keeping that lead cell from going off more than it already has. Unfortunately those storms west of Mineral Wells are outside of the anvil rain. I am very concerned about intensification as those storms approach the DFW area. Given current storm motions, those storms will impact the Metroplex unless they fall apart first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 Looks like outflow ahead of this storm on the Palo Pinto/Parker county line may be helping keep it in check. Otherwise, the ingredients here would probably be good for more tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 We can hope the storms remain outflow dominated. But there must be a new wave coming with storms in west Texas getting warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 TXC431-190500- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200319T0500Z/ Sterling TX- 1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHERN STERLING COUNTY... At 1142 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Sterling City, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Sterling County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3209 10107 3209 10099 3197 10082 3186 10082 3172 10109 3182 10119 TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 235DEG 39KT 3182 10105 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 55 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1140 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms will spread across the watch area overnight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. A few of the storms may also pose a risk of a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Abilene TX to 55 miles south southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1154 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Coke County in west central Texas... East central Sterling County in west central Texas... * Until 1245 AM CDT. * At 1153 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Sterling City, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Silver around 1220 AM CDT. Sanco around 1230 AM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include The Intersection Of Highway 158 And Ranch Road 2059. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This storm near Maryneal, TX has ramped up its rotation in the last couple of scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Storm-relative velocity shows about 75kt on the right hand side, 35 kt on the left hand side. (same storm as the last post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 I'm starting to get concerned about the track of the current tornado-warned storm. It will be getting pretty close to (or even go through part of) Abilene if it continues on its present track. EDIT: Abilene is now included in a Tornado Warning. Fortunately it says the tornado is radar-indicated (and not the strong wording seen back at Sterling City), although it is late at night and hard to spot as a result, so this warning still needs to be taken very seriously. EDIT 2: KTXS reports power flashes north of Tye. EDIT 3: Rotation moved near Impact/northernmost Abilene area. Hamby and the state prison facilities to the north (French Robertson and John Middleton Units) are now in the path of this possible tornado. Not a very populated area aside from the prisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 we've had two tornado reports here. The current tornado warning is not directly over the velocity couplet (unless the radar is delayed somehow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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