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If we maintain the current daily fatality numbers from now through the end of the year, we will be around 300,000 deaths by Jan 1.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.  The modeling is projecting about 800-1000 deaths per day for quite a while though.

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Cool website to keep track of all the vaccines and their stages. The 2 more promising.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

A vaccine in development by the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is based on a chimpanzee adenovirus called ChAdOx1. The vaccine is in a Phase II/III trial in England and Phase III trials in Brazil and South Africa. The project may deliver emergency vaccines by October. In June, AstraZeneca said their total manufacturing capacity stands at two billion doses.

Moderna was the first American company to put a vaccine into human trials.The vaccine uses messenger RNA (mRNA for short) to produce viral proteins. Moderna published promising Phase I results on July 14. Phase III trials are set to begin July 27, and the company hopes to have vaccine doses ready by early 2021.

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

California is starting to ration testing... not everyone will be able to get one.  Not sure if this is happening anywhere else.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1233963

My buddy took his test on the 7th with no results yet. Just texted him and results are taking up to 2 weeks. He started showing symptoms after going to a July 4th party. Lives in San Diego.

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My buddy took his test on the 7th with no results yet. Just texted him and results are taking up to 2 weeks. He started showing symptoms after going to a July 4th party. Lives in San Diego.

That is the other end of where there will be a limit to the cases, because the places testing the samples have a limitation as well.

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55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If we maintain the current daily fatality numbers from now through the end of the year, we will be around 300,000 deaths by Jan 1.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.  The modeling is projecting about 800-1000 deaths per day for quite a while though.

Before the numbers hit in this recent spike there was some hope that we had knocked the infection fatality rate significantly. Unfortunately I think it was the second hand spread from the young people to the at risk population that was inevitable with out of control spread shows that we are only doing marginally better than before.

I had previously posted on the other thread before it closes down that I didn't think we'd get back up to over 1000 deaths per day on the 7 day moving average unless something went horribly wrong. Unfortunately there are now reputable models predicting that we get there in the next month. It's really unfortunate how badly things have gone. 

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

That is the other end of where there will be a limit to the cases, because the places testing the samples have a limitation as well.

That seems like it is the bigger issue at this point.  It is a problem if you're waiting 1 or 2 weeks for the test result.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

That seems like it is the bigger issue at this point.  It is a problem if you're waiting 1 or 2 weeks for the test result.

Yeah that is a massive issue because what do you do, quarantine until you find out you are or aren't positive. Also if you are positive and progress you might not know to do preventative actions if don't have results. It is a giant cluster**** and only getting worse. 

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Guest ovweather

We are wasting tests / testing on sports teams / athletes. That’s only hurting the overall testing system / slowing things down. Think of all the tests being done in Orlando at Disney World for the NBA and MLS teams, not to mention all the other sports that are back to competition. All sports should of just been shut down for the rest of the year. Let’s don’t waste resources on meaningless stuff right now.

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6 minutes ago, ovweather said:

We are wasting tests / testing on sports teams / athletes. That’s only hurting the overall testing system / slowing things down. Think of all the tests being done in Orlando at Disney World for the NBA and MLS teams, not to mention all the other sports that are back to competition. All sports should of just been shut down for the rest of the year. Let’s don’t waste resources on meaningless stuff right now.

I wonder if there is data on people getting numerous tests. I heard some people  have been tested 20 times or more.

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11 hours ago, Jonger said:

I wonder if there is data on people getting numerous tests. I heard some people  have been tested 20 times or more.

And this, anyone going into a hospital for another reason (any reason ofc) is getting tested, and if (+) they're chalked-up as a C-19 admitted case.

 

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16 hours ago, ovweather said:

I had a nasty case of bacterial pneumonia (brought on by a viral infection) when I was 32 (17 years ago). I was very fit and healthy at the time. Even though both my lungs were infected, I was fortunate to not end up in the hospital. A 3 week course of a strong antibiotic fought off / cleared up the pneumonia just fine. I was left with scarring of my right lung, most likely from the pleurisy attributed to the pneumonia, but the scarring slowly cleared up over the course of a few years. Fortunately, I didn’t suffer any heart problems which can occur with bacterial pneumonia (and apparently with Covid’s viral pneumonia).

The bottom line, we just don’t know yet what the lasting effects from Covid pneumonia can be. Will some people be scarred for life? Certainly something we don’t want to take lightly until researchers and doctors know a lot more.

I'm "scarred for life" inside my ear canals from mega infections as a side effect of adult chicken pox. I was exposed at 19 when visiting my young nieces who were contagious. My mom had 7 of us kids and told the doctor she thought at one point or another, we'd all had the pox and built resistance. An honest mistake any one who's not perfect (i.e. human) could make. Am I to go after her for careless disregard of my well-being? I literally thought I was dying, and I was a strong guy in the peak of my youth. Sh*t happens as they say. The people that need to get over themselves are the ones that narcissistic-ally believe that life should be free of risks and everybody has to be looking out for their concerns, especially "big brother" government. Guess what? You are living in a fairy tale if you expect that's realistic. Happy for you that your pneumonia side-effects weren't permanent. 

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20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm "scarred for life" inside my ear canals from mega infections as a side effect of adult chicken pox. I was exposed at 19 when visiting my young nieces who were contagious. My mom had 7 of us kids and told the doctor she thought at one point or another, we'd all had the pox and built resistance. An honest mistake any one who's not perfect (i.e. human) could make. Am I to go after her for careless disregard of my well-being? I literally thought I was dying, and I was a strong guy in the peak of my youth. Sh*t happens as they say. The people that need to get over themselves are the ones that narcissistic-ally believe that life should be free of risks and everybody has to be looking out for their concerns, especially "big brother" government. Guess what? You are living in a fairy tale if you expect that's realistic. Happy for you that your pneumonia side-effects weren't permanent. 

Sadly, it is very unrealistic. But it never hurts to remind others that there’s no shame in being unselfish.

The reality is any illness is capable of scarring someone for life. This just isn’t a new phenomenon unique to Covid. One thing I am bothered by is how the media reports seems to paint with a broad brush that everyone, even asymptomatic people, may be facing health problems the rest of their lives as a result of having had Covid. There’s simply no way of knowing that right now, and probably not for several years. I’m all for taking lots of precautions with Covid, like mask-wearing, since it is a new and a quite contagious virus that we are still learning about. What I don’t like is the fear-mongering by the media and how the virus has become politicized seen by those who refuse to wear a mask. We need to take Covid serious, as we should all viruses. But let’s also practice common-sense in our approach to dealing with it.

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7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

And this, anyone going into a hospital for another reason (any reason ofc) is getting tested, and if (+) they're chalked-up as a C-19 admitted case.

 

So if someone going in for something else but tests positive you don't want that counted as a positive case? I mean what is the point you are trying to get at? It is a positive case.

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Indiana governor is extending the current restrictions until at least August.  So restaurants will remain at max of 75% indoor capacity and bars at 50%.  We have been able to keep our rise in cases under control with those percentages so no use playing with fire and going to 100%

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Indiana governor is extending the current restrictions until at least August.  So restaurants will remain at max of 75% indoor capacity and bars at 50%.  We have been able to keep our rise in cases under control with those percentages so no use playing with fire and going to 100%

 

Both of those capacities are way too high still, should be much less.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Both of those capacities are way too high still, should be much less.

You could make that argument.  We have been at those percentages with the bars and restaurants since June 12 and the rise in cases here has been gradual... nothing like FL, TX, AZ, CA.  Perhaps there is just a lag and it will start to accelerate at some point.

I do think some states/cities may be able to get away with a bit more opening than others.  Like having bars at 50% in Kokomo, IN or Indianapolis may not be as big of a problem as having bars at 50% in Miami.  Miami is obviously a huge party/tourist spot.      

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You could make that argument.  We have been at those percentages with the bars and restaurants since June 12 and the rise in cases here has been gradual... nothing like FL, TX, AZ, CA.  Perhaps there is just a lag and it will start to accelerate at some point.

I do think some states/cities may be able to get away with a bit more opening than others.  Like having bars at 50% in Kokomo, IN or Indianapolis may not be as big of a problem as having bars at 50% in Miami.  Miami is obviously a huge party/tourist spot.      

True no one is going to Indiana to party :D :lmao:

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