Coronavirus

[purduewx80]

Similar to what happened in NYC, at-home deaths are seeing a spike in TX. Hard to know how much of this is people afraid to go to the ER/doc vs. true COVID-19 deaths, but it's still alarming.

 

[Jonger]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indiana has been running less tests per day lately, and the positive percentage has been creeping up.  I mentioned that the state was testing all nursing home employees in June, so perhaps that explains the recent drop in number of tests being performed.

I found a study earlier that had 3,000 inmates all tested and 96% of positively tested individuals were asymptomatic. 

These tests are just uncovering the reality that A LOT of people are infected and don't know it.

It also means that the death rate is much lower than we initially suspected.

Old article, but interesting...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

[mattb65]

22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Flirting with 1000 today.  Hopefully just a data dump and won't start seeing more days like it in the coming weeks.

The numbers look bad again today. Definitely looks like deaths are spiking in Texas and possibly California. Lots of places appear to be seeing a rise.

[Jonger]

Just now, mattb65 said:

The numbers look bad again today. Definitely looks like deaths are spiking in Texas and possibly California. Lots of places appear to be seeing a rise.

Wasn't there a data dump from the weekend today?

Let's see how this plays out over the next week. 

[mattb65]

Just now, Jonger said:

Wasn't there a data dump from the weekend today?

Let's see how this plays out over the next week. 

The big data dump appeared to be yesterday when the numbers were close to 1,000. I didn't think there would be another big data dump to carry over into today.

The only big anomaly that I see is the big number out of New Jersey. But I agree, 2 days of significant rises compared with prior weeks is too soon to call it a definite spike, need to see what happens the rest of the week.

[wisconsinwx]

On 7/7/2020 at 6:10 PM, Jonger said:

 

Arizona, Texas, Florida and California still aren't putting up numbers worthy of a freak-out.

This thing is either weaker or doctors know how to handle it. Great news for opening up the country before the end of the summer.

The case numbers are worthy of a freak out, but most of the rest of the states' numbers aren't worthy of a freakout..at this time.

[Hoosier]

I think Wednesdays are usually part of the weekend lag, and could be even more in this case because of the holiday weekend.  The weekly average will give us a better idea.  I do get the sense that the national decline in deaths is ending and it's a question of how big the rise gets.

[purduewx80]

47 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Wasn't there a data dump from the weekend today?

Let's see how this plays out over the next week. 

[Santa Clause]

61,300 cases.

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

One of my customers was telling me how they usually come back to Michigan from Florida around April. She just got back last week, she told me that herself and a number of her friends stayed back later this year because of how bad the situation was in Michigan. She got out of town when things flipped a few weeks back.

[RogueWaves]

On 7/3/2020 at 8:35 AM, RyanDe680 said:

Yes, the exponential increase in number of cases does not match the increased rate of testing.

There's a leaked vid of local health officials discussing a change in "case reporting" protocols. The new guidelines are including not only the person who tested positive, but anyone they were hanging out with prior to testing. If they were hanging with 5, 10, or 15 people those people are basically being counted as "presumed C-19 cases". That's why we're seeing a sudden "exponential growth" rate. Not sure how widespread this is, but it would explain a lot.

Death rate calculated (about a week old article when deaths were around 125K) per CDC's own statement of 20 million infected, ends up being basically just like the flu:

 

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

There's a leaked vid of local health officials discussing a change in "case reporting" protocols. The new guidelines are including not only the person who tested positive, but anyone they were hanging out with prior to testing. If they were hanging with 5, 10, or 15 people those people are basically being counted as "presumed C-19 cases". That's why we're seeing a sudden "exponential growth" rate. Not sure how widespread this is, but it would explain a lot.

Death rate calculated (about a week old article when deaths were around 125K) per CDC's own statement of 20 million infected, ends up being basically just like the flu:

 

Flu death rate isn't 0.6%

0.1%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, etc. all sounds pretty similar to each other but is actually fairly significantly different when you are talking about millions of cases.  

Regardless of what the death rate is, we have like 130k dead and seemingly headed to 200k by winter.     

[A-L-E-K]

200k by winter is optimistic 

[RyanDe680]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

200k by winter is optimistic 

That just means an average of 470 deaths per day until winter.  The 7-day average currently is near 600.

 

I dont know if you mean optimistic like we won't get there or we will, but it sure looks like it's going to happen at the rate that we are going.  

[RyanDe680]

9 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

There's a leaked vid of local health officials discussing a change in "case reporting" protocols. The new guidelines are including not only the person who tested positive, but anyone they were hanging out with prior to testing. If they were hanging with 5, 10, or 15 people those people are basically being counted as "presumed C-19 cases". That's why we're seeing a sudden "exponential growth" rate. Not sure how widespread this is, but it would explain a lot.

Death rate calculated (about a week old article when deaths were around 125K) per CDC's own statement of 20 million infected, ends up being basically just like the flu:

 

How many times can we go over the 'its just like the flu' discussion?

[Hoosier]

Yeah, could very well get there around October at the rate we're going.  Was trying to not be so pessimistic but it's a real possibility.

If the schools are going to reopen, you gotta knock the cases way, way down.  Some countries overseas have been able to open schools and not have big problems so far.  Imagine trying to open school right now in Florida, Texas, Arizona with so much virus floating around.

[RyanDe680]

Oh man.... FL available ICU beds were at 1,250 earlier in the week, down to 800 now....

Texas available hospital bed were at 12,925 earlier in the week... now at 11,500

yikes

[mattb65]

36 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Oh man.... FL available ICU beds were at 1,250 earlier in the week, down to 800 now....

Texas available hospital bed were at 12,925 earlier in the week... now at 11,500

yikes

Yeah, pretty bad, unfortunately it's pretty clear to me that there is a surge in deaths hitting these states, the numbers this week are all bad.

I do have hope that these states will flatten out in the coming weeks. It's sad to see this happening, this was all predicted by the health experts. I was worried about it in late April - Georgia reopened and didn't surge because people were being very cautious which created a false sense of security so people decided to cut loose and let their guards down. Surges like this threaten everything - the ability for the economy to recover, the ability for schools to successfully reopen and stay open.

How many times do we as a country need to learn the hard lessons that we need to respect the biology of this virus in order to live with it while we wait for an adequate vaccine, treatment or preventive. Dr. Fauci hit the nail on the head today when he highlighted the transmissibility as one of the major factors that sets this virus apart. The severity can be debated, I can see how some will minimize a death rate of 0.6% or wherever it ends up. But no one can deny the incredible ability this virus has to very quickly and dramatically fill up hospitals and ICUs like nothing we have ever seen in our lifetimes. 

[RyanDe680]

1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

Yeah, pretty bad, unfortunately it's pretty clear to me that there is a surge in deaths hitting these states, the numbers this week are all bad.

I do have hope that these states will flatten out in the coming weeks. It's sad to see this happening, this was all predicted by the health experts. I was worried about it in late April - Georgia reopened and didn't surge because people were being very cautious which created a false sense of security so people decided to cut loose and let their guards down. Surges like this threaten everything - the ability for the economy to recover, the ability for schools to successfully reopen and stay open.

How many times do we as a country need to learn the hard lessons that we need to respect the biology of this virus in order to live with it while we wait for an adequate vaccine, treatment or preventive. Dr. Fauci hit the nail on the head today when he highlighted the transmissibility as one of the major factors that sets this virus apart. The severity can be debated, I can see how some will minimize a death rate of 0.6% or wherever it ends up. But no one can deny the incredible ability this virus has to very quickly and dramatically fill up hospitals and ICUs like nothing we have ever seen in our lifetimes. 

What we need is some form of leadership.  I fully admit that I'm not a fan of Pritzker and his proposals (especially the tax increases) but he has navigated IL through this pretty well and I'd applaud him for that.  The only way out of this is if we work together as a team and make it happen.  While some areas are trending down, a lot of other areas are not, making this that much more difficult.  I know we all won't agree with what needs to be done and I can't figure out how wearing a mask for 15-20 minutes while in a store is really that bad but what other way would someone propose then?  I love the people pitching major fits about wearing a mask but offer no other solutions.  It's not hard to follow the science and follow the guidance for the greater good and not just yourself.

 

[Santa Clause]

Looking like 61,000 new cases 945 deaths

[Hoosier]

20 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Looking like 61,000 new cases 945 deaths

3 days in a row of 900+.  Wish we could say it's all because of the weekend lag but I don't think so.  It looks like we have reached the point where the increases in several states are outweighing the declines in other states.  

[Santa Clause]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

3 days in a row of 900+.  Wish we could say it's all because of the weekend lag but I don't think so.  It looks like we have reached the point where the increases in several states are outweighing the declines in other states.  

I agree, three big states as well.

[mattb65]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

3 days in a row of 900+.  Wish we could say it's all because of the weekend lag but I don't think so.  It looks like we have reached the point where the increases in several states are outweighing the declines in other states.  

The one silver lining that I see it's that the rate of rise in cases appears to be slowing down, only 4000 more than last week. It had been increasing by 10k+ every week. Testing volume has been pretty stable over the last week

[Hoosier]

Can see the flattening and upward move starting in the 7 day avg on worldometers.  Probably a similar look on the other tracking sites (or will be soon)

 

[nwohweather]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, could very well get there around October at the rate we're going.  Was trying to not be so pessimistic but it's a real possibility.

If the schools are going to reopen, you gotta knock the cases way, way down.  Some countries overseas have been able to open schools and not have big problems so far.  Imagine trying to open school right now in Florida, Texas, Arizona with so much virus floating around.

Says who? New Gallup poll only shows that 33% of independent voters are concerned about this virus. Lol they probably shouldn't open but let's be honest, the vast majority don't care at this point

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, mattb65 said:

The one silver lining that I see it's that the rate of rise in cases appears to be slowing down, only 4000 more than last week. It had been increasing by 10k+ every week. Testing volume has been pretty stable over the last week

You might just have the same people getting tested over and over.

[Santa Clause]

4 hours ago, mattb65 said:

The one silver lining that I see it's that the rate of rise in cases appears to be slowing down, only 4000 more than last week. It had been increasing by 10k+ every week. Testing volume has been pretty stable over the last week

I think that someone brought up once we get so high it’ll be tough to get much higher due to testing limitations and such, think it was dan1195. Maybe once we get to 60 to 65,000 a day, we really can’t go much higher.

[Hoosier]

Covid hospitalizations have been increasing in Indiana, though not at a dramatic rate and there is still plenty of bed availability.  Current hospitalizations are the highest they have been since the 3rd week of June.  It would largely be too early to see any impact from the 4th of July on the hospitalization numbers because of the typical time lag with this illness so hopefully there isn't a sharper rise on the way. 

[RyanDe680]

On 7/9/2020 at 2:17 PM, RyanDe680 said:

Oh man.... FL available ICU beds were at 1,250 earlier in the week, down to 800 now....

Texas available hospital bed were at 12,925 earlier in the week... now at 11,500

yikes

Texas avail beds down to 11,300.  Less than 975 ICU bed available....

[Hoosier]

Could be headed for about 65k today.  

Not sure how high the daily number can go as we are going to max out test processing capability at some point.  There have already been reports of test results taking longer to come back now compared to a month or so ago. 

You could certainly make an argument that we actually have over 100k new cases per day right now since significant numbers of asymptomatic people wouldn't have a reason to get tested.