RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: So based on those numbers above and where the death toll stood on May 1, here is what a near worst case scenario for Indiana could look like. I say near because it assumes basically everything goes wrong on the treatment/vaccine front but does NOT assume the hospitals get overloaded at any point, resulting in excess mortality rates. Let's say 70% of the state gets infected before an effective vaccine or a really good therapeutic that knocks down the death rate in a major way. That could result in nearly 30,000 deaths, unless the high risk population can be protected a lot better than they have been up to this point. Let's hope it doesn't get to that point. There is a lot of work being done on the treatment and vaccine front, so have to be cautiously optimistic that something will come along. How populated were the areas of the testing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: How populated were the areas of the testing? From what I understand, they picked from all across the state. But it would be reasonable to think that the most populated areas of the state (like Indianapolis and Lake county) have had higher than 2.8% exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 15 hours ago, Jonger said: I'm actually enjoying the lack of traffic and reduced crowds. Large cities are probably much nicer than usual right now. Its great here in NYC without the traffic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 8 hours ago, RyanDe680 said: How populated were the areas of the testing? 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: From what I understand, they picked from all across the state. But it would be reasonable to think that the most populated areas of the state (like Indianapolis and Lake county) have had higher than 2.8% exposure. I'm not sure how they picked the areas from which they randomly picked the test subjects, but they did take some demographics into account: " In the first phase, more than 3,600 people were randomly selected and an additional 900 volunteers were recruited through outreach to the African American and Hispanic communities to more accurately represent state demographics." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 7 hours ago, IWXwx said: I'm not sure how they picked the areas from which they randomly picked the test subjects, but they did take some demographics into account: " In the first phase, more than 3,600 people were randomly selected and an additional 900 volunteers were recruited through outreach to the African American and Hispanic communities to more accurately represent state demographics." yeah that is what would be nice, if the sample represented state demographics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Some of the Indiana restaurants that are closing https://www.theindychannel.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-economic-impact/indianapolis-restaurants-and-businesses-permanently-closed-due-to-covid-19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 It'll be interesting to see the career changes that happen in this country. You're going to see a major diaspora of workers from retail, hospitality and dining to ? Hopefully this re-emphasizes the importance of a strong manufacturing sector and desire of these jobs. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Somembody who was at a church service of 180 people tested positive https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/05/15/butte-county-mothers-day-service-coronavirus-contact-tracing/ In some ways this could be informative but there are a number of unknowns, like how many people were wearing masks and how far apart they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 You gotta wonder where else this might be going on. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/498142-colorado-lowers-coronavirus-death-count-from-more-than-1k-to-878 alcohol poisoning counted as Covid? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: You gotta wonder where else this might be going on. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/498142-colorado-lowers-coronavirus-death-count-from-more-than-1k-to-878 alcohol poisoning counted as Covid? Stuff like that is probably going on everywhere. The question is how many people are inappropriately designated as dying from covid and then on the other side, how many covid deaths have slipped through the cracks? (especially earlier on). For all the questions about the way the US is counting deaths, it looks f*cking fantastic compared to how some other countries are counting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 In that related article on the interview with HHS director Azar, he was asked why the death toll has been so much higher here in America? His answer was that so many of us are not in good health to begin with and are easy prey for any such wave of illness. BUT, don't tell Peeps it's their fault. No! Can't have that, after all our healthcare system relies heavily on all these societal diseases for a lot of their day-to-day business. Not only should we not blame them, but we shouldn't educate them on what not to do either (other than smoking ofc which finally has been called out as an industry of unhealthy addiction). Quote Asked to clarify his comments, Azar said he’s not blaming Americans with health conditions, but rather explaining the epidemiology. “Please don't distort this, this is not about fault this is about simple epidemiology,” he said. “One doesn’t blame an individual for a health condition, that would be absurd,” he added. “It’s simply a statement that we do have greater risk profiles in the United States. This is why we've all highlighted — the surgeon general, the president —the special disease burden and risk factors in a lot of our communities that we’ve got to address.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Yet this virus has shown it's capable of killing seemingly healthy, younger people (including children). Yes the percentages are low, but still far higher than for the flu and is that really a roulette game you wanna play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 We have started to pretty consistently get around/under 10% positive test rate in Indiana for the past several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yet this virus has shown it's capable of killing seemingly healthy, younger people (including children). Yes the percentages are low, but still far higher than for the flu and is that really a roulette game you wanna play? Is that really the case? The covid fatality rate seems to be lower than flu for the younger age groups (0-20, and maybe 21-39) but higher than flu for the older ages. I suppose it would be trickier to sort out if you only look at deaths of "healthy" people. If you are 5 pounds overweight, does that qualify as a pre-existing condition? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 21 hours ago, Hoosier said: Is that really the case? The covid fatality rate seems to be lower than flu for the younger age groups (0-20, and maybe 21-39) but higher than flu for the older ages. I suppose it would be trickier to sort out if you only look at deaths of "healthy" people. If you are 5 pounds overweight, does that qualify as a pre-existing condition? Per the CDC, it is only severe or morbid obesity, or a BMI over 40. Quote People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html Otherwise if it was just ten or 20 pounds overweight most of the population would seem to qualify. And while this is "higher risk" I would assume that would correlate with "pre-existing condition" and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 23 hours ago, Hoosier said: Is that really the case? The covid fatality rate seems to be lower than flu for the younger age groups (0-20, and maybe 21-39) but higher than flu for the older ages. I suppose it would be trickier to sort out if you only look at deaths of "healthy" people. If you are 5 pounds overweight, does that qualify as a pre-existing condition? yeah that was my question too. If a BMI of 30 is considered overweight, then a lot of the population has a 'pre-existing' condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Florida If ever there's a question about which state, guess Florida https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: Florida If ever there's a question about which state, guess Florida https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position Two sides to every story and this no exception. She wanted to add to the total BEFORE formalized announcement and others disagreed. You can choose what makes the most sense to you. "she objected to the removal of records showing people had symptoms or positive tests before the cases were announced" Was she being proactive or misleading? Again, just a difference of opinion amongst many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Absolutely mobbed out. Looks like my area threw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Indiana reported almost 600 new cases and 38 new deaths today. These numbers haven't shown much of a decline the past few weeks. Maybe everyone is just getting use to the numbers and not as concerned as a month ago, even as everything is opening back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Watching Pritzker, Illinois, Restaurants will be allowed to have Outdoor seating in Phase 3 with restrictions. In 9 days. Also state parks etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Heard today of a few construction sites shutting down in Waukesha County, with positive tests abundant. 30+ positives at one site alone.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 2 hours ago, ovweather said: Indiana reported almost 600 new cases and 38 new deaths today. These numbers haven't shown much of a decline the past few weeks. Maybe everyone is just getting use to the numbers and not as concerned as a month ago, even as everything is opening back up? Hard to keep driving the case numbers down as more and more things reopen. The good news is that there hasn't been a spike in raw case numbers and the positive test percentage is trending down. With most of Indiana starting to reopen 16 days ago, this is about the time when you would start to look at the data to see if reopening has had any impact (lag time due to incubation period, time to get tested and get the results) but the 4-6 week mark may be a better indicator since more people will have been going out and about more for a longer period of time by then. Barbers/salons opened up 2 days ago in my county. I passed by a Great Clips and the line was out the door. Looked like most/all people were wearing masks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 A much needed sense of normalcy coming for Illinois residents, as bars and restaurants can allow outside dining with social distancing rules in place May 29th. What I fear is the “second wave” of this during the fall months when flu season ramps back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Heard today of a few construction sites shutting down in Waukesha County, with positive tests abundant. 30+ positives at one site alone.Sent from my SM-N960U using TapatalkWow. Just north of there so that’s insane. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I think a key to staying safe from this thing is vitamin D, zinc, quercetin and NAC. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Don't forget the hydroxychloroquine! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 IN had one of its highest new case numbers since this all began, and the highest number since May 5. BUT, the positive test rate was about 9%. That is not ideal but it continues the recent trend of getting around/under 10%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 https://www.al.com/news/2020/05/montgomery-running-out-of-icu-beds-as-coronavirus-cases-double-in-may.html Summer won't save us if we don't keep up social distancing measures of no large gatherings and limited people in group indoor spaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 The Mayor's office just sent this out. A pretty good representation of what's happened and what will happen, IF people behave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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