Coronavirus

[nwohweather]

But the money is lost only in principle, the money will be spent once things open up because a lot of people are sitting on liquidity right now. Anyone that is working or even collecting unemployment. The latter of which covers many of those service industry workers.
Vegas obviously is a different ball of wax because of the gaming industry though so I will give credit on that one.

People are burning through liquidity, fixed it for you. Unemployment is impossible to get almost because so many are trying to sign up, so many are seeing significant delays. Hell my sister runs a Hampton Inn around the Sandusky, OH area and she said they’ve laid everyone off but her and the Assistant GM. Laid off employees are coming and eating the continental breakfast so they don’t go hungry that’s how bad it is.

Having 30 million people lose their entire incomes and then more than likely having to enter a new industry is going to be devastating for the rest of the year to our economy.

[Stebo]

Just now, nwohweather said:

People are burning through liquidity, fixed it for you. Unemployment is impossible to get almost because so many are trying to sign up, so many are seeing significant delays. Hell my sister runs a Hampton Inn around the Sandusky, OH area and she said they’ve laid everyone off but her and the Assistant GM. Laid off employees are coming and eating the continental breakfast so they don’t go hungry that’s how bad it is.

Having 30 million people lose their entire incomes and then more than likely having to enter a new industry is going to be devastating for the rest of the year to our economy.

That just isn't true if they are getting unemployment 960 a week before taxes per worker, if that is not enough money especially if both spouses are work and/or on unemployment they are living beyond their means. Those who aren't getting unemployment because delays are going to get it and get it backdated so the missing money will be there. That is more of an issue of gross negligence at a state level, thankfully this state has done much better than others.

[RyanDe680]

6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That just isn't true if they are getting unemployment 960 a week before taxes per worker, if that is not enough money especially if both spouses are work and/or on unemployment they are living beyond their means. Those who aren't getting unemployment because delays are going to get it and get it backdated so the missing money will be there. That is more of an issue of gross negligence at a state level, thankfully this state has done much better than others.

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.   

[Snownado]

Don't viruses normally fade away this time of year ? Why would this virus be any different ?

[sokolow]

Stebo remember how last month people realized Florida had basically designed its UI system, to deny people access to UI. Pretty much the whole country is like that, only less blatant.  Like Ohio just rolled out a website so your employer can conveniently report you as ineligible on account of having “refused work” 

[cyclone77]

Are we gonna have a homicidal wasp thread?

[sokolow]

Many years ago I got into a claim denial related to an H&S issue with an employer and it basically resolved via standoff of: you can report it as decline to accept work and I’ll report it to OSHA, and we can have it adjudicated. that was a large pain in the butt and i wasn’t worried about making rent

[Hoosier]

42 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Don't viruses normally fade away this time of year ? Why would this virus be any different ?

Novel virus that spreads easily.  There could be a bit of a seasonal aspect but I think how we decide to live in the coming months is going to be the bigger factor in what happens.  

imo, having restrictions in colder temps vs having little or no restrictions in warmer temps would actually result in more cases in the latter scenario.  I think any seasonal aspect just gets drowned out at a certain point.

[Stebo]

47 minutes ago, sokolow said:

Stebo remember how last month people realized Florida had basically designed its UI system, to deny people access to UI. Pretty much the whole country is like that, only less blatant.  Like Ohio just rolled out a website so your employer can conveniently report you as ineligible on account of having “refused work” 

Well in that case then we are truly ****ed. These are the same states and companies crying for money too. There needs to be a complete change in the way business is done after this because that is just gross negligence

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, RyanDe680 said:

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.   

I do agree there. Personally I don't though because being single for a good amount of my life, I know that if something happens to me and I am not prepared, I am ****ed.

[madwx]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/health/genetics-coronavirus-spread-study/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1W4ZQhMWajgyPlJ08sz_92XXQ0zyygLoAbOg8VQ1loB_AOGckT34DDbCk

more credence to the idea that this has been spreading in America since late last year

 

 

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

People are burning through liquidity, fixed it for you. Unemployment is impossible to get almost because so many are trying to sign up, so many are seeing significant delays. Hell my sister runs a Hampton Inn around the Sandusky, OH area and she said they’ve laid everyone off but her and the Assistant GM. Laid off employees are coming and eating the continental breakfast so they don’t go hungry that’s how bad it is.

Having 30 million people lose their entire incomes and then more than likely having to enter a new industry is going to be devastating for the rest of the year to our economy.

  That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service.  Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement.  A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves.  We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years.  At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself.  If your economy is based on service, it's artificial.  It's Bitcoin.  Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing).  What do they produce? 

  Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat.  I get it your a supply chain analyst.  Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is.  It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface.  But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything.  The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years.   Just like what  I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold.  

   This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is.  The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit.  We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work.  We're going to have to deal with it for a long time.  The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world.     None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this.  We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats.  The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO  This is a crucial time right now in our society.  We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough.  I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead. 

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

  That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service.  Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement.  A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves.  We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years.  At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself.  If your economy is based on service, it's artificial.  It's Bitcoin.  Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing).  What do they produce? 

  Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat.  I get it your a supply chain analyst.  Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is.  It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface.  But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything.  The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years.   Just like what  I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold.  

   This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is.  The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit.  We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work.  We're going to have to deal with it for a long time.  The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world.     None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this.  We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats.  The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO  This is a crucial time right now in our society.  We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough.  I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead. 

You bring up a great point with your last paragraph, my dad is making more at home than working right now even after 35 years being a welder for the same shop. This is a bargaining chip that the middle and lower class need to use because in no way shape or form should one make more at home than working. Even in this special circumstance, companies coming out on the other side need to be paying their workers more especially because this isn't going to be any easier when those who aren't working go back to work.

[sokolow]

7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Well in that case then we are truly ****ed. These are the same states and companies crying for money too. There needs to be a complete change in the way business is done after this because that is just gross negligence

A friend of mine in CA hasn’t seen the federal UI supplement yet, theoretical max benefit is 450/wk (if you make 100k, he didnt, so his is less). Spouse discovered her UI is strangled at 100/wk because she is being incorrectly penalized for a reporting error from a year ago that was supposedly favorably resolved, but, good luck getting ahold of anyone to get that fixed. That in turn seems to be affecting her federal UI supplement, and ...

Another friend in CA is furloughed / on reduced hours, not unemployed.  Which is good, but also bad.  Because that means the state has to process the employer derived notice that hours have been reduced but they want to retain the employee, and,

Another friend in Canada is stuck in a phone tree living nightmare, and can’t discern what is going on with his claim, what crack it fell through, or what is happening.

At any rate one can imagine how this stacks up against the rent on their (modest, financially responsible) residences in the greater Bay or Toronto areas.

[sokolow]

Pew Research had a good article on how many unemployed persons were actually able to claim and receive UI benefits, back in March before it really got spicy.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/24/not-all-unemployed-people-get-unemployment-benefits-in-some-states-very-few-do/ft_20-04-16_unemploymentbenefits_2/

“Largely because state rules vary so much, the share of people the government counts as unemployed who actually receive unemployment benefits varies too. In March, just before the pandemic really began wreaking havoc on the economy, 65.9% of unemployed Massachusetts residents received benefit payments but only 7.6% of jobless Floridians did, according to Pew Research Center’s analysis of data”

The neutral way of putting this I suppose, is to say that UI systems are generally speaking, stringently designed to ensure that claimants meet and can demonstrate eligibility criteria such as no-fault discharge and availability for, willingness to take, and active search for employment. Its intended as an emergency supplement to savings, not a replacement for lost wages. The level of stringency can be seen state by state in the Pew graphic below.  This stance has not synergized well with the current situation of many, and has affected access to the Federal supplement.

[sokolow]

Even accepting that stance, when you’re unemployed your full time job is 1. finding work and 2. strategizing how to stretch your financial resources.  It should not be to struggle with the UI system and starting packing your household cuz you fear you’ll be unable to make rent in the near to medium term.

[RobertSul]

9 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

I think that the sad reality is that a strong amount of people do live beyond their means.   

Absolutely. Fiscal responsibility on a personal level needs to be taught in schools. The thing is, people get very touchy on the subject of their spending habits.

[sokolow]

18 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Absolutely. Fiscal responsibility on a personal level needs to be taught in schools. The thing is, people get very touchy on the subject of their spending habits.

Perhaps the curriculum could be designed by the MBA programs which educated our business and financial leadership who in turn created the strong national enterprises that have had no need to seek emergency loans or grants either now or in 2007-9, because they wisely saved several months to a year of operating costs in order to weather financial crises, natural disasters, and pandemics

[RyanDe680]

10 hours ago, Stebo said:

I do agree there. Personally I don't though because being single for a good amount of my life, I know that if something happens to me and I am not prepared, I am ****ed.

As someone who manages money for a living, I wish everyone would think like that.

[RyanDe680]

8 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  That's the price you pay when an economy of production moves to an economy of service.  Once you base your economy on consumption instead of production there's nothing to support it when demand for services hits the basement.  A "Service" based economy is just that, it serves.  We haven't had a "production" or "goods" based economy in 40 or 50 years.  At least if you have a production based economy, when shit hits the fan, you can at least "make things" for yourself.  If your economy is based on service, it's artificial.  It's Bitcoin.  Walmart is the largest employer in this country (which is absolutely embarrassing).  What do they produce? 

  Not digging at you, I'm in the same boat.  I get it your a supply chain analyst.  Most people never heard of the "supply chain" in detail until it was brought up during this and may not understand completely what it is.  It's not just ships, ports trucks and/or warehouses. It's way deeper than the obvious on the surface.  But the supply chain doesn't "make" anything.  The supply chain creates jobs, but what flows through the supply chain has changed drastically over the last 40 years.   Just like what  I do for a living it doesn't "produce" a product that can be built or sold. I support a product or products that have already been built and sold.  

   This country is at a true crossroads right now, for that matter the world is.  The divisions are already deep, and like the stock market, are artificially being exasperated by selfish entities trying to exploit them at our expense for their own profit.  We are facing something now that typical American denial isn't going to work.  We're going to have to deal with it for a long time.  The economic game that's been played by us world wide, the fact that we have dollar stores, the fact that we in this country get the best deals without making shit at the expense of impoverished slaves exploited by the the "walmarts" of the world.     None of us can, nor should we, rely on the current leadership or the future leadership, to get us as a country through this.  We need to stand up, and do the hard thing, but on our terms, not the fat cats.  The economy is important, but this current economy isn't worth sacrificing lives for IMHO  This is a crucial time right now in our society.  We've been a junkie ignoring reality long enough.  I hope our kids and grandkids won't have to forgive us and may thank us instead. 

Ugh, not the artificial stock market crap again.  The bottom line is that countries with the most wealth are typically not producing economies, they naturally become service oriented.  It's supply and demand - if you could produce a glass for $5 here but another country makes the exact same glass for $3, as a business that is a no brainer.  It's not the fault of the 'economy' but the fault of business if you want to place blame.  The stock market is the way that the general population can value certain companies with no intermediary.  We all individually have access to own these companies and during times of economic shock or stress, valuations never make sense.  The common thread is that rationalization always plays out and fair valuation eventually comes out.  The human psychology controls this, not an 'entity.' 

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, sokolow said:

A friend of mine in CA hasn’t seen the federal UI supplement yet, theoretical max benefit is 450/wk (if you make 100k, he didnt, so his is less). Spouse discovered her UI is strangled at 100/wk because she is being incorrectly penalized for a reporting error from a year ago that was supposedly favorably resolved, but, good luck getting ahold of anyone to get that fixed. That in turn seems to be affecting her federal UI supplement, and ...

Another friend in CA is furloughed / on reduced hours, not unemployed.  Which is good, but also bad.  Because that means the state has to process the employer derived notice that hours have been reduced but they want to retain the employee, and,

Another friend in Canada is stuck in a phone tree living nightmare, and can’t discern what is going on with his claim, what crack it fell through, or what is happening.

At any rate one can imagine how this stacks up against the rent on their (modest, financially responsible) residences in the greater Bay or Toronto areas.

Gross incompetence of the Feds and how this has played out can't be ignored. That is for sure. By the way your 2nd example is what is happening to my mom, she is on reduced hours 20/week.

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, sokolow said:

Pew Research had a good article on how many unemployed persons were actually able to claim and receive UI benefits, back in March before it really got spicy.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/24/not-all-unemployed-people-get-unemployment-benefits-in-some-states-very-few-do/ft_20-04-16_unemploymentbenefits_2/

“Largely because state rules vary so much, the share of people the government counts as unemployed who actually receive unemployment benefits varies too. In March, just before the pandemic really began wreaking havoc on the economy, 65.9% of unemployed Massachusetts residents received benefit payments but only 7.6% of jobless Floridians did, according to Pew Research Center’s analysis of data”

The neutral way of putting this I suppose, is to say that UI systems are generally speaking, stringently designed to ensure that claimants meet and can demonstrate eligibility criteria such as no-fault discharge and availability for, willingness to take, and active search for employment. Its intended as an emergency supplement to savings, not a replacement for lost wages. The level of stringency can be seen state by state in the Pew graphic below.  This stance has not synergized well with the current situation of many, and has affected access to the Federal supplement.

There is definitely an undeniable pattern to that map, not only by location but by political party of the states.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

As someone who manages money for a living, I wish everyone would think like that.

I thank my grandmother for that, my grandparents never lived beyond their means growing and my grandfather worked for Ford starting in the 70s. For the first few decades the pay was low for a family of 6. But by the late 80s and into the 90s the pay got better and my grandmother was a wiz at investing. By the time my grandfather retired in the early 2000s they were and still are worth a couple million dollars. It can be done even by blue collar families but it takes a lot of lean years early and smart investing while never living beyond your means.

[Jonger]

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is definitely an undeniable pattern to that map, not only by location but by political party of the states.

Looks like red state workers are choosing to work versus staying home. Infections are almost exclusively bad in blue states though.

[Stebo]

Just now, Jonger said:

Looks like red state workers are choosing to work versus staying home. Infections are almost exclusively bad in blue states though.

That would be a no.

[Jonger]

Just now, Stebo said:

That would be a no.

And?

[Stebo]

Just now, Jonger said:

And?

You are wrong

[Jonger]

Of course many red states have embedded blue areas that are pumping up case statistics. 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is definitely an undeniable pattern to that map, not only by location but by political party of the states.

Maybe a bit more geographical (northern states doing "better" than farther south) but can see some political factors as well.

Here's a map of governors

 

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Maybe a bit more geographical (northern states doing "better" than farther south) but can see some political factors as well.

Here's a map of governors

 

Yep, though there are some on the right, Dewine, Hogan, and Baker who have done well in governing their state of OH, MD, and MA. But there is definitely a slant by party overall.