Coronavirus

[sokolow]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big jump in Illinois cases... +2724.  But there were like 16000 tests submitted since yesterday, which is the most in a single day.

I wonder if that modeling that showed Illinois peaking in mid May was factoring in increased testing capacity.  I would guess not but I am not familiar with all that goes into them.  

The Los Alamos one?

[michsnowfreak]

Got a sign to support those essential workers! Really do appreciate all they do during these crazy times

[RyanDe680]

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big jump in Illinois cases... +2724.  But there were like 16000 tests submitted since yesterday, which is the most in a single day.

I wonder if that modeling that showed Illinois peaking in mid May was factoring in increased testing capacity.  I would guess not but I am not familiar with all that goes into them.  

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range.

 

Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms.  Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range.

 

Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms.  Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

Ok, then it makes more sense that the peak numbers would be in May.  There will be less people missed as long as testing increases.  

[madwx]

19 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range.

 

Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms.  Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

I think a lot of the current spread is in places that people aren't able to social distance (prisons, work at meat packing plants, health care workers, etc.)

[Hoosier]

As of today, Indiana has 44% ICU bed availability and 78% ventilator availability.  That is pretty decent, and the concern about bed and ventilator availability if the outbreak went unchecked was the main driver of the lockdown.  So if I were governor of Indiana, here's what I would do when the current stay at home expires on May 1.

Open barbershops and salons, but by appointment only.  Clean frequently and require everybody to wear a mask.

Open gyms on a limited basis, based on seniority.  People with the longest memberships can go, but nobody else.  Clean frequently and encourage mask use (may get uncomfortable when exercising lol).  

Everything else that is closed, I would pretty much leave all of that closed for now.  Maintain take out/drive thru/delivery only for restaurants.  

Do that for 1 month and then reevaluate.  I don't think it's smart to open up like 10 sectors all at once, because the number of cases could quickly ramp up.  

I understand the temptation to just let herd immunity take over, but the numbers would really spike and threaten to overwhelm hospitals.  Even if the hospitals could somehow handle the load in that scenario (very unlikely), I think there is value in trying to delay getting sick.  While the hyped up treatments don't seem to be panning out very well so far, it is possible that some effective treatment is found prior to a potential vaccine.  

[cyclone77]

All I wanna know is if MLB is ever going to give money back to their fans for tickets already purchased?  So far there have been no refunds for games that should have already been played.  I guess the games are still technically postponed, which is ridiculous cause the games will not be made up, especially with fans in attendance.  I have 3 tickets for Yankee game May 24 at Skankee Stadium.  Was really looking forward to seeing a game there, even if it isn't the original house that Baby Ruth built.  Anyway, what the MLB is pulling right now with their loyal fans in the midst of this financial crisis is enough for me to vow that I will never purchase one of their tickets ever again.  I hope more do the same.  **** them.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

All I wanna know is if MLB is ever going to give money back to their fans for tickets already purchased?  So far there have been no refunds for games that should have already been played.  I guess the games are still technically postponed, which is ridiculous cause the games will not be made up, especially with fans in attendance.  I have 3 tickets for Yankee game May 24 at Skankee Stadium.  Was really looking forward to seeing a game there, even if it isn't the original house that Baby Ruth built.  Anyway, what the MLB is pulling right now with their loyal fans in the midst of this financial crisis is enough for me to vow that I will never purchase one of their tickets ever again.  I hope more do the same.  **** them.

Unfortunately, pretty much all sporting events, concerts, etc. are doing this...whether it’s StubHub or Ticketmaster or the venues themselves. It’s extremely annoying, even if there may be reasons for it. Just issue the refunds for all events, if they didn’t occur on the scheduled date. Doesn’t matter if the event has not technically been canceled. 
 

Same issue with airline ticket refunds. I have 8 tickets around the US that were previously booked for my family and I for this spring and summer. I canceled all of them, and we can use the money as a credit for future flights by YE 2021...but I would rather have the money back as a refund so that I can make the decision. This is especially frustrating because airlines took a lot of the government stimulus money. 
 

Just do what’s best for the customer, and be done with it. Very simple. 

[beavis1729]

3 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

He mentioned during some press conference this week (can't remember which) that the modeling did, but I don't think at that rate - something more in the 10k range.

 

Still confusing to me how these number continue to go up despite the soon-to-be 6 week lock down on a virus that supposedly takes 14 days max to show symptoms.  Something tells me that the 14 day thing is way off.

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor. 

[madwx]

58 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor. 

yeah we are only catching 10% cases so in most states the rate of cases is just the amount of testing.  A better method of seeing how many people are infected in each state is to count the deaths and assume the fatality rate is around 0.5-0.7% and calculate the cases from that.

[RyanDe680]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

As of today, Indiana has 44% ICU bed availability and 78% ventilator availability.  That is pretty decent, and the concern about bed and ventilator availability if the outbreak went unchecked was the main driver of the lockdown.  So if I were governor of Indiana, here's what I would do when the current stay at home expires on May 1.

Open barbershops and salons, but by appointment only.  Clean frequently and require everybody to wear a mask.

Open gyms on a limited basis, based on seniority.  People with the longest memberships can go, but nobody else.  Clean frequently and encourage mask use (may get uncomfortable when exercising lol).  

Everything else that is closed, I would pretty much leave all of that closed for now.  Maintain take out/drive thru/delivery only for restaurants.  

Do that for 1 month and then reevaluate.  I don't think it's smart to open up like 10 sectors all at once, because the number of cases could quickly ramp up.  

I understand the temptation to just let herd immunity take over, but the numbers would really spike and threaten to overwhelm hospitals.  Even if the hospitals could somehow handle the load in that scenario (very unlikely), I think there is value in trying to delay getting sick.  While the hyped up treatments don't seem to be panning out very well so far, it is possible that some effective treatment is found prior to a potential vaccine.  

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.  

[RyanDe680]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It’s due to increased testing. There could be some other ancillary reasons, but increased testing is the simplest explanation. Occam’s Razor. 

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure.  
 

this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling.  Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.  

[etudiant]

7 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

With regard to the herd immunity - Sweden has gone that route and has a 12% death rate. Granted that’s with testing less than 0.2% of the population.  

The Sweden death rate is more than 3x that of its Nordic neighbors, just about that of Switzerland, but they avoided trashing their economy.

Considering the misery the lockdowns have inflicted and the massive debts that we're building up because of it, the Swedish choice seems a lot more humane, despite the pain.

[beavis1729]

10 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

I can see that - but then how would you know that you’re actually bending the curve or if you are continuing to have population exposure.  
 

this is hard as I normally work with numbers but I hit a wall with modeling.  Especially in a situation where the variable (the testing) continue to increase.  

Bingo - I hear you. And, I think it’s precisely this uncertainty that is driving the overwhelming government response. Not saying it’s right or wrong...

To me, the only solution is to enable widespread testing with almost immediate results...so that people can self-isolate as needed, and everyone else can get back to relative normal, even if masks are still required out of an abundance of caution. 

[Hoosier]

On 3/30/2020 at 10:12 PM, Hoosier said:

This model was put out by a group at University of Washington.  It assumes social distancing continuing throughout May.  Since we may not actually do that, the real curve may end up looking a bit different on the back side.

The low end scenario has around 40,000 US deaths by early August.  You can see the high end is over 140,000.  Again this is with social distancing continuing throughout the period and obviously assuming no effective therapeutic comes along in the meantime.  If we went completely back to life as normal then the numbers would be way uglier than this.

In the nearer term, the low end scenario still has 1,000+ deaths per day in the US from April 5-19.  

 

This might end up being closer to reality than the updated version.  Looks quite likely we'll be at/above 60k deaths on May 1.

[Hoosier]

Quite a protest in Wisconsin. 

[weatherbo]

Some people are wearing masks, some aren't.  With a crowd that size, it will be interesting to see if cases spike down the road a couple weeks.  It'll be telling either way.

[CoachLB]

Those models are as good as the GFS.

[hawkeye_wx]

I went to Menards late this morning.  The place was packed.  About half the customers were wearing a mask.

[kevlon62]

Speaking of death bands.

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[Hoosier]

Anecdotal but when I was out it almost looked like normal Saturday traffic.  Based on traffic alone you wouldn't know anything is going on.  Hard to say how much of it is people just taking a ride but it is in the low 40s and rainy, so not exactly ideal roll the windows down weather.

I wonder if society is gradually becoming more comfortable with going out. 

[Hoosier]

US should pass the 1 million mark either late tomorrow or on Monday.  Actual number of course could be more like 10 million, 20 million... who knows?

 

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

US should pass the 1 million mark either late tomorrow or on Monday.  Actual number of course could be more like 10 million, 20 million... who knows?

 

Testing numbers will be essentially useless. I'm almost annoyed that people talk about them. Deaths and recoveries are more important.

[RobertSul]

13 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Testing numbers will be essentially useless. I'm almost annoyed that people talk about them. Deaths and recoveries are more important.

That’s like saying that Hurricane Watches are useless and people should wait until the death toll/structural damage numbers of a storm come in.

The death/recovery rates lag by a couple weeks from initial symptoms. If you have a sudden surge of cases, you can at least try to prepare a week or so in advance.

[Hoosier]

Attn:  Indiana people.  I found a site that has statewide and county by county hospitalization data.

https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/

Here's the chart for IN.  Positive news is that the hospitalization curve appears to be flattening in recent days.  But the discharges have basically flattened as well.

[Hoosier]

My county is nasty.  382 have been hospitalized out of about 1500 known cases.  

[hoosierwx]

That’s like saying that Hurricane Watches are useless and people should wait until the death toll/structural damage numbers of a storm come in.
The death/recovery rates lag by a couple weeks from initial symptoms. If you have a sudden surge of cases, you can at least try to prepare a week or so in advance.

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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[Jonger]

46 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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Bingo

[RyanDe680]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Attn:  Indiana people.  I found a site that has statewide and county by county hospitalization data.

https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/

Here's the chart for IN.  Positive news is that the hospitalization curve appears to be flattening in recent days.  But the discharges have basically flattened as well.

This is the exact data we need. IL probably can’t afford to develop this, but I wonder how something like this compares to seasonal flu.  That to me makes the determination as to the severity of this, given testing isn’t where it needs to be. 

[RyanDe680]

2 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

With all the assymptomatic cases it may be like trying to place a hurricane warning on the US coast based on one ship report in the Leeward Islands. I have my doubts there will ever be enough tests or people to run down every contact. We are about 6 weeks into social distancing and almost as long into the shut down and still getting record numbers. Yeah, there are more tests but still getting that many positives is concerning.

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Yes that’s what I can’t comprehend.  I understand the higher rate of testing but why are the numbers still so high