Coronavirus

[Chicago Storm]

Those who support the stay at home order, how far are you willing to keep it going?  June 30th? Labor Day? January 2021?  I'm just asking. 

Nothing should change until there is better testing in place.... Which is something that hasn’t happened yet, and doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon.


.

[sokolow]

if anyone else is following that whole deal with the IHME model there’s this

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/media/filer_public/87/63/87635a46-b060-4b5b-a3a5-1b31ab8e0bc6/ut_covid-19_mortality_forecasting_model_latest.pdf

and the viewer is here

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

 

On March 26, 2020, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released a website that forecasts coronavirus disease (COVID-19) healthcare demand and mortality for all states in the United States. After being cited during a White House briefing on COVID-19 modeling efforts, their forecasting model, described in a preprint on medRxiv [IHME et al., 2020], has received an enormous amount of attention from both the general popula- tion and scientific community. IHME has since updated the model several times resulting in considerable revisions to the COVID-19 forecasts.

The IHME approach departs from classic epidemiological modeling. Rather than using systems of equations to project the person-to-person transmission of the virus, the model postulates that COVID-19 deaths will rise exponentially and then decline in a pattern that roughly resembles a bell curve (i.e., normal distri- bution). The model assumes that the shape of the curve will be curtailed by so- cial distancing measures. Key inputs driving this component of the IHME model include the reported dates of state-wide shelter-in-place orders and shapes of COVID-19 epidemiological curves observed in Chinese and European cities fol- lowing the implementation of similar measures.

In light of the popular appeal of the IHME model and considerable scrutiny from the scientific community, we have developed an alternative curve-fitting method for forecasting COVID-19 mortality throughout the US. Our model is similar in spirit to the IHME model, but different in two important details.

1. For each US state, we use local data from mobile-phone GPS traces made available by SafeGraph to quantify the changing impact of social-distancing measures on “flattening the curve.” SafeGraph is a data company that ag- gregates anonymized location data from numerous applications in order to provide insights about physical places. To enhance privacy, SafeGraph excludes census block group information if fewer than five devices visited an establishment in a month from a given census block group.

2. We reformulated the approach in a generalized linear model framework to correct a statistical flaw that leads to the underestimation of uncertainty in the IHME forecasts.
The incorporation of real-time geolocation data and several key modifications yields projections that differ noticeably from the IHME model, especially re- garding uncertainty when projecting COVID-19 deaths several weeks into the future.

[Hoosier]

One reason that daily deaths have been picking up lately is that "probable" covid-19 deaths are being added in.  This will undoubtedly become a talking point for some people to argue that the death toll is being inflated, but keep in mind that the procedure for coming up with flu deaths is not limited to those confirmed via testing.  And I don't know if all states have started adding in probable deaths.

[Snownado]

Great news. Looks like you are safe from the virus as long as you are outside during the daytime. 

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Great news. Looks like you are safe from the virus as long as you are outside during the daytime. 

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html

I wouldn't use that as a reason to abandon outdoor social distancing though.  Still have ways to spread outdoors before sunlight would be able to kill it.   

[Jackstraw]

Going to be a half way decent day Saturday around the GL region.  The heebeegeebees are rearing their heads.  With the encouragement of DC let the great experiment begin.  Hope it goes well, really do.  Hope the wack jobs don't follow the leader.  

 

 

 

[Nflow6]

On 4/14/2020 at 6:13 PM, Stebo said:

I and many in this state disagree, yes there have been a few missteps as noted with the gardening aspect for example but this is an unguided time and she like others is doing the best that she can. I would rather err on the side of caution than not. Should lottery go to online only, yes. Should marijuana/liquor stores close, no because that could potentially lead to other issues and rehab facilities are not available should things get worse. It is easy to say "hey don't drink" to an addict but until you walk in those shoes you don't know and there is very limited resources for addiction right now. No this isn't meant to enable but I could it being worse if alcohol sales were eliminated. As for marijuana, there is medicinal purposes to it and in a highly stressed environment, if someone wants to smoke to calm themselves as long as it is legal I see no issue there.

Medical Science disagrees. Heavy drinking is a significant immunosuppressant and heavy use of marijuana has also been shown to have a mild immunosuppressant effect. I agree however it has uses in pain management though. Nobody should be putting any smoke into their lungs at this time or engaging in heavy vaping. 

[Jackstraw]

  There are folks around here that are are believing an internet rumor (what?  It's not true?) that if you smoke cigarettes you have a better chance of not contracting the virus because the flem from cig smoking in your lungs is so thick the virus can't get through it to get to the cells in your lungs.  Seriously.  I've heard that story standing in line at a store more than once, and have had people tell me that.

Disclaimer: I was a fairly heavy corporate smoker for about 20 years.  Currently I am a light tobacco user.  Equal to about a couple packs a week but their hand rolled and I occasionally smoke a pipe.  I do rationalize. I get the the tobacco from a friends very small organic tobacco farm in NC that's illegal as hell.  I won't go into why organic non pesticide, non nicotine ramped up tobacco is illegal.  It's a habit (tobacco company jargon for addiction lol) I've tried to stop several times but just can't, so be it, so I do it in the most "healthy" way I can.  And yes I partake in the indigenous natural gift of mother nature but mostly in edible form, it's cheaper and much more relaxing.  When I smoke it  it literally makes me sick to my stomach and just gets me too wasted.   

[Nflow6]

Jackstraw,

 Sorry to hear of your loss this indeed is a terrible virus. Prayers to you and his family.  There will be so much more to learn about this virus going forward. Being of older age, Obese, Diabetic, Male, Metabolic syndrome, history of smoking and smoking or environmental dust related illness, active asthma and a myriad of other factors increase the risks of getting into trouble with this virus. hydroxychloroquine has shown some positive effects and Remdesivir is showing promise although its stressed these are both early in the clinical trial process. 

[Nflow6]

5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

  There are folks around here that are are believing an internet rumor (what?  It's not true?) that if you smoke cigarettes you have a better chance of not contracting the virus because the flem from cig smoking in your lungs is so thick the virus can't get through it to get to the cells in your lungs.  Seriously.  I've heard that story standing in line at a store more than once, and have had people tell me that.

Disclaimer: I was a fairly heavy corporate smoker for about 20 years.  Currently I am a light tobacco user.  Equal to about a couple packs a week but their hand rolled and I occasionally smoke a pipe.  I do rationalize. I get the the tobacco from a friends very small organic tobacco farm in NC that's illegal as hell.  I won't go into why organic non pesticide, non nicotine ramped up tobacco is illegal.  It's a habit (tobacco company jargon for addiction lol) I've tried to stop several times but just can't, so be it, so I do it in the most "healthy" way I can.  And yes I partake in the indigenous natural gift of mother nature but mostly in edible form, it's cheaper and much more relaxing.  When I smoke it  it literally makes me sick to my stomach and just gets me too wasted.   

Looks like I left you a message as you were typing one. None of us are perfect with our habits lol. When i was younger I drank a bit and worked in some dusty jobs which now put me at higher risk in addition to being diabetic. We can't do life over...Oh if we only could. LOL...Everyone take care of yourselves and the ones you love.

[sokolow]

POINT

 

COUNTERPOINT

[RyanDe680]

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

It could be worse, we could live in Florida where an idiot is the governor there.

 

 

How on earth do you open the beaches right now down there.

So typical media - that’s an old photo.  Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there.  
 

Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron. 

[sokolow]

Trevor Bedford, PI at the eponymous Bedford lab at Fred Hutch out Washington way highlights the first look at results from the Seattle area ‘rona prevlance study.

https://publichealthinsider.com/2020/04/17/greater-seattle-coronavirus-assessment-network-scan-releases-data-from-first-18-days-of-testing/

The technical report is a good read because it walks the reader through the caveats and possible confounding factors of their methodology and the resulting data

PDF link

https://publichealthinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/SCAN-Technical-Report-v1-17-APR-2020.pdf

Both of those links from this thread, which is worth a read

Quote

 

On March 23, Public Health — Seattle & King County and the team behind the Seattle Flu Study launched the greater Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network—or SCAN for short. Thanks to the participation of volunteers across the county, SCAN has already begun to identify cases that might otherwise have gone undetected.

In its first 18 days, SCAN tested 4,092 samples. Nearly two-thirds of those were returned by individuals who in the seven days prior to enrollment had reported COVID-like illness (fever, cough, or shortness of breath). However, more than three-quarters of these individuals indicated they had not yet sought medical care. SCAN is the first COVID-19 surveillance program in the U.S. to use “swab-and-send” test kits that allow individuals to collect their own nasal sample and return it to a lab for testing without leaving home—while observing physical distancing guidance and reducing exposure to others.

SCAN testing among those reporting COVID-like illness (CLI) returned 44 (1.6%) positive results for COVID-19—a proportion lower than that being returned through testing within the medical system, but one that may still represent thousands of unrecognized infections in the community.

 

 

[Snowstorms]

2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

So typical media - that’s an old photo.  Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there.  
 

Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron. 

Did you see that video of him putting a mask on? 

[sokolow]

Bedford thinks aloud in this thread about the potential differences between the Seattle and Santa Clara results

 

He points out he has operating with the educated working assumption that untraced infections are something like 10-20x confirmed cases, but is eager for more data to give foundation to or revise that number range

Quote

Estimating total number of infections is difficult without serology (see this thread: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609734896607232…), but I'd guess that we're catching between 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections as a confirmed case. 14/18

He also highlights this discussion by biostats prof Natalie Dean on her critical first read of the Santa Clara study

 

[Stebo]

26 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

So typical media - that’s an old photo.  Drone photos from yesterday showed barely any people out there.  
 

Doesnt change the fact that their governor is still a moron. 

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/florida-beach-reopen-coronavirus-mad-dash-075308141.html
 

I wouldn't trust drone photos to be accurate. There were many beaches that had the same reaction yesterday.

[Hoosier]

Large increase in cases in Ohio.  Could be a one-off that quickly settles back toward baseline.  Will have to monitor trends there in the coming days.

[RobertSul]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Large increase in cases in Ohio.  Could be a one-off that quickly settles back toward baseline.  Will have to monitor trends there in the coming days.

Some of those cases might be due to the 100 protestors who gathered outside the state house on Monday. 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, RobertSul said:

Some of those cases might be due to the 100 protestors who gathered outside the state house on Monday. 

Not likely.  Incubation period and time to get tested and then get the results (just getting the results often still takes several days) would take too long.  

[nwohweather]

They've reopened the boat launches, and allowing the beaches to be opened up as well in SC. Also all retail stores will be opened up as well.  I'm glad they're doing it as the spread is low, and they're putting in place restrictions based on square footage for all stores, requiring masks, not letting people beach their boats, only allowing 4 people a boat and asking at the popular launches for ID checks to see if everyone is from the same household. 

Unfortunately due to the economic toll we're going to have to adjust and be able to buy a lawn mower and sofa while remaining vigilant to keep ourselves and others safe

[vpbob21]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Large increase in cases in Ohio.  Could be a one-off that quickly settles back toward baseline.  Will have to monitor trends there in the coming days.

I think a lot of that increase can be attributed to the big spike in cases at the Marion Correctional Institution.  Marion County has gone from 91 cases to 983 cases in just the last 5 days.  What's concerning to me is that the virus finally seems to be moving into rural areas.  My county has gone from 5 cases to 28 cases in just the last week.  Dewine is talking about opening up the state by May 1 - IMO it is way to early to even be thinking about it.

[wisconsinwx]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

They've reopened the boat launches, and allowing the beaches to be opened up as well in SC. Also all retail stores will be opened up as well.  I'm glad they're doing it as the spread is low, and they're putting in place restrictions based on square footage for all stores, requiring masks, not letting people beach their boats, only allowing 4 people a boat and asking at the popular launches for ID checks to see if everyone is from the same household. 

Unfortunately due to the economic toll we're going to have to adjust and be able to buy a lawn mower and sofa while remaining vigilant to keep ourselves and others safe

If there is an area that can do this now it would probably be in the SE, as the heat/humidity component will be a good test and may show that things can still be handled if we open up some businesses.

[Snownado]

I say bring on the heat and humidity. It can't hurt can it ? I cant imagine that it would make the virus worse. Seems like it could only help.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, vpbob21 said:

I think a lot of that increase can be attributed to the big spike in cases at the Marion Correctional Institution.  Marion County has gone from 91 cases to 983 cases in just the last 5 days.  What's concerning to me is that the virus finally seems to be moving into rural areas.  My county has gone from 5 cases to 28 cases in just the last week.  Dewine is talking about opening up the state by May 1 - IMO it is way to early to even be thinking about it.

Pritzker was saying the same thing about Illinois, how the growth rate is increasing in rural counties.

[Malacka11]

As a distance runner, I'm constantly out training in nearby parks and forest preserves. I went out today to check out a new area and I have to admit I was genuinely surprised by the number of people there. Like the lot was at least two-thirds full... an uninformed individual would never suspect that there's a pandemic sweeping through the country from that scene. 

On the flip side, I imagine that the risk of contagion at preserves is somewhat lower, simply because outside of the parking lot, you're much more spread out. If hobby-jogging or family walks serve as an outlet to prevent other, more rash behaviors, then I suppose it's a good thing. 

 

Side note: I wonder what effect wind speeds have on an airborne disease's ability to spread. It would be interesting to see what sneezes/exhalations look like on a windy day like today versus, say, in a supermarket. 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

As a distance runner, I'm constantly out training in nearby parks and forest preserves. I went out today to check out a new area and I have to admit I was genuinely surprised by the number of people there. Like the lot was at least two-thirds full... an uninformed individual would never suspect that there's a pandemic sweeping through the country from that scene. 

On the flip side, I imagine that the risk of contagion at preserves is somewhat lower, simply because outside of the parking lot, you're much more spread out. If hobby-jogging or family walks serve as an outlet to prevent other, more rash behaviors, then I suppose it's a good thing. 

 

Side note: I wonder what effect wind speeds have on an airborne disease's ability to spread. It would be interesting to see what sneezes/exhalations look like on a windy day like today versus, say, in a supermarket. 

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, wisconsinwx said:

If there is an area that can do this now it would probably be in the SE, as the heat/humidity component will be a good test and may show that things can still be handled if we open up some businesses.

Yeah cases have gone down to like 160 a day, so very manageable for a state of this size

[nwohweather]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

I don't buy that for a second.  There is no way outside a breeze is going to blow those germs right into someone, haha I refuse to believe that

[Malacka11]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

Damn. That's actually the opposite of my assumption. Thanks for the info, kind negates my point lol

[wisconsinwx]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Don't have the link but I remember reading that wind spreads the virus farther.  So in particular if an infected person sneezes or coughs without covering up and the wind direction is right, you might not be safe even if you're 20 or 30 feet away. 

Yeah I'm a little more nervous outside on high wind days like today.  I did go out and putt at a local golf course putting green today (only a mile away from where the Brookfield, WI rally was today and it crossed my mind, but the wind was the opposite direction thankfully.  Warm/humid/calm conditions should be best to mitigate the spread, which we'll have some of this summer I'd imagine.