sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 More figures from the above, again via @EricTopol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2020 Author Share Posted April 17, 2020 56 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Still the same leveled steady increases each day, with both cases and deaths. Sun: 20,852 cases and 720 deaths total. (+1,293 & +81) Mon: 22,025 cases and 794 deaths total. (+1,173 & +74) Tue: 23,247 cases and 868 deaths total. (+1,222 & +74) Wed: 24,593 cases and 948 deaths total. (+1,346 & +80) Thur: 25,733 cases and 1,072 deaths total. (+1,140 & +125) So much for that...past 24hrs has had the biggest single day case increase thus far. 27,575 cases and 1,134 deaths total now. (+1,842 & +62) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Those who support the stay at home order, how far are you willing to keep it going? June 30th? Labor Day? January 2021? I'm just asking. That’s kind of a nonproductive question by itself. Who wants to keep it going for fun? I think we’ve talked about this itt that the critical elements public health specialists are emphasizing that we need to have in place and functioning if we don’t want to go back to the same miserable story are Rapid test, Trace, Isolate, Treatment (overflow capacity and effective interventions) in the context of few enough active infections for the inbuilt time lag of the first two steps to not make the third useless. I suggest the alternate question “At what point to we conclude our business, political and healthcare leadership is incompetent for failing in allowing us to build & implement this public health monitoring infrastructure” because that’s the point where we “break stay at home” to “don proper PPE“ and “dump them in Lake Michigan” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 @HelenBranswell points to article by her colleagues at STAT on the U of C hinting at useful results found in early remdesivir clinical trials EDIT a friend tells me they got questions about the value of this trial because lack of control arm combined with not real clear on criteria they used for who was admitted to study. https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/ but more importantly she has discovered intriguing relationship between cumulative confirmed C19 cases, and scientific articles related to the of the covid epidemic. coincidence....? i think not ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: Those who support the stay at home order, how far are you willing to keep it going? June 30th? Labor Day? January 2021? I'm just asking. I know it sounds crazy but there are people out there who would be ok with shutting everything down for the next year if it meant saving lives. Of course they don't think about the negative effects it would have, they are just focused on one side of the equation. We would probably all die from starvation by then. At some point you just gotta say screw it. Im going out and living my life. If I die then I die. I'd rather die than live in a world of hopelessness and suffering that lasts for decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snownado said: I know it sounds crazy but there are people out there who would be ok with shutting everything down for the next year if it meant saving lives. Of course they don't think about the negative effects it would have, they are just focused on one side of the equation. We would probably all die from starvation by then. At some point you just gotta say screw it. Im going and living my life. If I die then I die. I'd rather die than live in a world of hopelessness and suffering that lasts for the decades. how about we make some sacrifices for the next year but don't shut everything down. both the 'shut everything down' and the 'screw it im gonna live my life like i used to' points of view are unrealistic and will cause the most damage. if we have continued social distancing, good hygeine measures, markedly increased antibody testing, no large gatherings like sporting events and concerts and shorter periods of stricter methods if any areas become hotspots then we don't have to choose from the false dichotomy that you've presented. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I was posting about this guy earlier and this deep dive into the past (2 March!), as it were, is a cool read if you haven’t seen it before. https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ But r/n I thought y’all might like this thread on the test - trace challenge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snownado said: I know it sounds crazy but there are people out there who would be ok with shutting everything down for the next year if it meant saving lives. Of course they don't think about the negative effects it would have, they are just focused on one side of the equation. We would probably all die from starvation by then. At some point you just gotta say screw it. Im going out and living my life. If I die then I die. I'd rather die than live in a world of hopelessness and suffering that lasts for decades. While understanding the severity of the illness, one also has to look at the statistics. In the US at least, with 695k confirmed cases, that represents approximately 0.21% of the population. That is at least cases where people felt compelled to seek some type of medical attention. In consideration, I think that the way that we were 'going about' our lives is what will change as a result of this, at least for now. We can prove that this shut down can help to stem the evolution of this, however I think that it's how we act with the 're-opening' of things that determines where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: Those who support the stay at home order, how far are you willing to keep it going? June 30th? Labor Day? January 2021? I'm just asking. Until we have adequate testing so that thousands of people don't come into my terminal without knowing if they are sick or not. Unfortunately we have no idea when that date is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: While understanding the severity of the illness, one also has to look at the statistics. In the US at least, with 695k confirmed cases, that represents approximately 0.21% of the population. That is at least cases where people felt compelled to seek some type of medical attention. In consideration, I think that the way that we were 'going about' our lives is what will change as a result of this, at least for now. We can prove that this shut down can help to stem the evolution of this, however I think that it's how we act with the 're-opening' of things that determines where we go from here. That's a good point too that nearly 700k people have been tested for it but what if I told you the actual number of cases was 10 or 20x that. Just look at the numbers coming off these Navy ships, that over 50% of the cases are asymptomatic. So you know there are millions in this country who may be infected and not even remotely realize it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: That's a good point too that nearly 700k people have been tested for it but what if I told you the actual number of cases was 10 or 20x that. Just look at the numbers coming off these Navy ships, that over 50% of the cases are asymptomatic. So you know there are millions in this country who may be infected and not even remotely realize it. Yea but that is exactly my point - we only know about those that have sought medical care in order to get tested. The testing saga is a whole other discussion, but my point was that 0.2% of the population has sought to get tested because the symptoms may have been bad enough, not counting the (guessing) millions of those walking around not knowing that they have it or are carrying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, Stebo said: That's a good point too that nearly 700k people have been tested for it but what if I told you the actual number of cases was 10 or 20x that. Just look at the numbers coming off these Navy ships, that over 50% of the cases are asymptomatic. So you know there are millions in this country who may be infected and not even remotely realize it. In other words, the death rate is probably very low and your chances of dying from the virus if you get it is very low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 that would be fantastic if it was true. instead its just a possibility thats plausibly true but that we really really wish was real we know there’s a lot more infections than cases, sure. but how many more, thats the big cash prize whats the values out of the one prevalence study that got done in heinsberg? ~15% of the persons sampled in city had been infected to date and that worked out to ~0.5% infection fatality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 half a percent give or take sure seems pretty low if we’re talking scratchoffs or winning the big TV at the xmas raffle but thats sh!t-high odds when the prize is death and the runner up prizes include the possibility of long-term perhaps (who knows!) permanent lung damage or a nice long stay on vent. not to mention this isnt like a slot machine we get to play alone, we’re all at the table 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Unfortunately we're not going to be able to figure out the true fatality rate for a while. It is certainly going to be a lot lower than the current case fatality rate. Doesn't take away from the concern of pushing hospitals to or over the brink if things reopen too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 The media has given some people the impression that basically it's a death sentence if you get the virus, when in reality that couldnt be further from the truth. I believe people have been brainwashed to an extent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 10 hours ago, WestMichigan said: If you like some country better than here why not move? Everyone is constantly telling people to move north if they want more snow. Same thing here. If you want a completely different government move. There is no sense staying in a miserable place when there is somewhere else that offers something far superior to what you have now. Yikes, not trying to get very political here but how come immigration is such a hot issue down there but whenever someone praises Canada they get told to move here? How easy do you guys think it is to move here? Sorry, just as a Canadian its tiring to hear people say "Just move to Canada if you like it so much" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 hours ago, nwohweather said: Oof this thread took off but honestly I’m glad. It shows the dire straits we are in with a shut down economy. One thing I’d like to say is with the safety net argument, there really is none for an economy completely shutting down for two months due to a pandemic. I do understand the clamor for a system to Canada as we have excessive poverty and inequality in this country, but personally I doubt any of us have a true problem with that. The majority of us have an insane amount of wealth compared to the average Canadian or Brit, absolutely insane. This economy and its rules are far from perfect but it’s the reason we can have 2000 sq ft homes, boats, golf courses everywhere, cottages in Northern MI. I mean there is no way around it, as Americans like the fact many of us can afford quite a bit of "stuff". I often am in the Toronto area for work and when I’d drive over before moving to SC it would just shock me the lack of commercial development compared to what we see in America. Lol, what? Sorry I cant let this go haha The average price of a detached home sold in Toronto last month was $1.04 million, versus $617,658 for condominiums. The average price of a home in Toronto and its suburbs rose 7.1 per cent from a year earlier to $843,637 in November https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-housing-prices-extend-gains-amid-tightening-supply Our Cottage Country In Muskoka, we are seeing people in their 50s and 60s cashing out with significant amounts of money, as well as those who are coming into money and want to get out of the rat race,” said Bob Clarke, sales representative, Royal LePage Lakes of Muskoka, in the release. “A 300-foot lot on southern Lake Joe once would be about $1.6 million. Now, if I found one west-facing it would likely be $3.0 million. That puts pressure on 100- and 200-foot lots.” https://www.mymuskokanow.com/90449/cottage-prices-on-the-rise-in-2019-despite-flooding/ I normally wouldnt do this but when I travel the US (especially southern, but also Buffalo) I get asked if Canada is similar to the Soviet Union. I wish I was kidding but your analysis paints a bleak depressing white apartments, limited economic activity and food banks when that isnt true. Also, I must say im jealous that you get to live in South Carolina. Vacationed in Hilton Head a few years ago and enjoyed every minute of it, I hope you have a good weekend and enjoy the nice weather while were getting a late season wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 i went and had a glance and surveys have been done in denmark (evidence for prior infection found in 3% of blood donors, 4% in healthcare workers), similar numbers in netherlands, ongoing in wuhan, and also in santa clara county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Snownado said: In other words, the death rate is probably very low and your chances of dying from the virus if you get it is very low. Yes but the rate of being very sick isn't low and if this virus isn't treated as being very dangerous that number would skyrocket as would the death rate. Remember these numbers we have are with precautions in place, can you imagine what it would be like without them? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, sokolow said: half a percent give or take sure seems pretty low if we’re talking scratchoffs or winning the big TV at the xmas raffle but thats sh!t-high odds when the prize is death and the runner up prizes include the possibility of long-term perhaps (who knows!) permanent lung damage or a nice long stay on vent. not to mention this isnt like a slot machine we get to play alone, we’re all at the table Lets say the death rate is 0.5% and everyone gets it in this country, that is still 1.5 million dead people. People grasp at percentages because it minimizes the problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yes but the rate of being very sick isn't low and if this virus isn't treated as being very dangerous that number would skyrocket as would the death rate. Remember these numbers we have are with precautions in place, can you imagine what it would be like without them? Yeah and that's the problem. With the lockdown 'the curve' may be flattened but is still substantial. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 hours ago, nwohweather said: Oof this thread took off but honestly I’m glad. It shows the dire straits we are in with a shut down economy. One thing I’d like to say is with the safety net argument, there really is none for an economy completely shutting down for two months due to a pandemic. I do understand the clamor for a system to Canada as we have excessive poverty and inequality in this country, but personally I doubt any of us have a true problem with that. The majority of us have an insane amount of wealth compared to the average Canadian or Brit, absolutely insane. This economy and its rules are far from perfect but it’s the reason we can have 2000 sq ft homes, boats, golf courses everywhere, cottages in Northern MI. I mean there is no way around it, as Americans like the fact many of us can afford quite a bit of "stuff". I often am in the Toronto area for work and when I’d drive over before moving to SC it would just shock me the lack of commercial development compared to what we see in America. Toronto is one of the fastest growing metro areas over the last 20 years. I don't know what you are getting at with this but it couldn't be any further from the truth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I keep hearing that there could be 60,000 deaths by early August yet it seems like at least 2,000 per day are dying now. If we keep up this rate it will be over 60,000 this month. So apparently they are expecting a sharp decline in deaths very soon ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, sokolow said: i went and had a glance and surveys have been done in denmark (evidence for prior infection found in 3% of blood donors, 4% in healthcare workers), similar numbers in netherlands, ongoing in wuhan, and also in santa clara county glancing more as to what all that actually means for the policy questions we want to make it serve, the upshot appears to be “we don’t know yet” because there’s apparently a dozen ways these findings could be confounded or overinterpreted, and of course there is a strong appeal towards drawing the implication of a lower IFR. i am sure we’re going to hear the TWiV nerds talk about this and i can’t wait to hear an epidemiologist do an expert roundup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snownado said: I keep hearing that there could be 60,000 deaths by early August yet it seems like at least 2,000 per day are dying now. If we keep up this rate it will be over 60,000 this month. So apparently they are expecting a sharp decline in deaths very soon ? thats what IHME forecast. upthread there’s some discussion about what specific purpose that model was designed for, what the big caveat is that is built into its premises, and why the purpose for which it was designed results in exactly the thing you described and why that’s not necessarily ideal when using the tool for other applications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 It could be worse, we could live in Florida where an idiot is the governor there. How on earth do you open the beaches right now down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, Snownado said: The media has given some people the impression that basically it's a death sentence if you get the virus, when in reality that couldnt be further from the truth. I believe people have been brainwashed to an extent. 30,000 people have died in this country WITH most states’ restrictions. What would you do if you had a heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, kidney stones, car accident, organ failure, or any other deadly or painful malady that’d require hospitalization but all the hospitals around you were beyond capacity? Not to mention those with chronic conditions which require frequent trips to see a doctor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: It could be worse, we could live in Florida where an idiot is the governor there. How on earth do you open the beaches right now down there. that guy is a complete idiot. At 1,400 new cases a day down there how do you think that’s a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/15/2020 at 8:56 AM, sokolow said: In re the IHME model, here is an interesting discussion of side effects that arise from it having been designed as a resource-use forecasting tool for healthcare institutions & response planning, but then being employed “off label” as it were in a broader context @Snownado here you go, go nuts read the whole thread tho, the whole bit is important if you’re like me & trying to follow along from the back row while people who have expert field knowledge discuss their work for laypeople & their peers simultaneously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts