Coronavirus

[dan11295]

5 hours ago, mattb65 said:

I thought we'd get to 10k by tomorrow but looks like it'll probably be some time next week because it looks like the pace of the decline has leveled off in some areas. Without the daily twitter updates and with the holiday lag it's hard to tell for sure. The lawyer craig weekly numbers will come out tomorrow and I think they'll probably be 11k-12k. Worldometers is down below 13k for the first time so we're still gradually getting there...

As you mentioned it doesn't decline linearly, it follows exponential decay or half lives. 50% decline from 30K is  lot - down by 15k but 50% of 15k is only 7.5k and then 3.75k so it'll naturally level off at some point.

Next test for the US is when Delta is responsible for >50% of cases here. That is when numbers began going back up in the UK. But that wont be for another 1-2 months. Also am watching mortality in the UK. If mortality stays very low there like it is currently, its means the vaccines are doing their job.

[Hoosier]

Arm soreness is gone.  Took 4 days both times.  I actually bruised at the injection site this time though.

[Stormheartgypsy]

Oh the joys

Above link is about MO + Delta variant

 

[Stormheartgypsy]

US Covid Cases by State

[mattb65]

On 6/16/2021 at 3:54 PM, Hoosier said:

Not sure if reporting lags after Memorial Day are playing a role, but there are some signs of slowing declines in case numbers nationally in recent days.  Whether it's actually happening or it's just a mirage, you'd expect this at some point as you'd otherwise eventually get to 0 cases on a straight linear decline.  14 days left for our resident doctor's prediction to pan out.  

 

10,938 - if he was doing daily updates we'd probably dip below 10k on Monday or Tuesday next week.

It's down to 12,639 today on Worldometers so a rough estimate on the 50 states would be to subtract 1500-1700 from worldometers.

Average vaccinations have also bounced up quite a bit in the last couple weeks too, probably not enough to get to 70% by July 4th but it'll be close.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Daily average up to 1.36 mil from 936k 2 weeks ago.

 

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

 

10,938 - if he was doing daily updates we'd probably dip below 10k on Monday or Tuesday next week.

It's down to 12,639 today on Worldometers so a rough estimate on the 50 states would be to subtract 1500-1700 from worldometers.

Average vaccinations have also bounced up quite a bit in the last couple weeks too, probably not enough to get to 70% by July 4th but it'll be close.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Daily average up to 1.36 mil from 936k 2 weeks ago.

 

Should be below 10k on the next Friday update.  Let's hope so, because the Friday after that isn't until July 2 and then we'd be left with some ambiguity.  

[Hoosier]

I was at a party and there were some people there who I hadn't seen since before covid.  Anyway, I was talking with someone and covid came up.  She told me a story about her respiratory therapist friend.  That person was vaccinated back in February and had to go on prednisone in April for a nerve issue.  While on prednisone, the respiratory therapist caught covid.  This was a couple months after being fully vaccinated.  They are still having some lung/breathing issues.

You'd think that there was enough separation between getting vaccinated and going on prednisone.  The covid antibodies, etc would've already been established from the vaccine, but perhaps the immune function temporarily being held down by prednisone left that person more vulnerable.  I wonder if there is any literature on something like this... going on an immune suppressant well after getting a covid vaccine.  Anyway, perhaps a reason to be extra cautious while you are on a medication like that, even if you're fully vaccinated. 

[CheeselandSkies]

50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I was at a party and there were some people there who I hadn't seen since before covid.  Anyway, I was talking with someone and covid came up.  She told me a story about her respiratory therapist friend.  That person was vaccinated back in February and had to go on prednisone in April for a nerve issue.  While on prednisone, the respiratory therapist caught covid.  This was a couple months after being fully vaccinated.  They are still having some lung/breathing issues.

You'd think that there was enough separation between getting vaccinated and going on prednisone.  The covid antibodies, etc would've already been established from the vaccine, but perhaps the immune function temporarily being held down by prednisone left that person more vulnerable.  I wonder if there is any literature on something like this... going on an immune suppressant well after getting a covid vaccine.  Anyway, perhaps a reason to be extra cautious while you are on a medication like that, even if you're fully vaccinated. 

That's something I've been concerned about, since my fiancee will eventually need a kidney transplant...due to COVID giving her kidney failure.

[mattb65]

Choosing to retire from the NFL and forgo millions of dollars rather than get a vaccine, this is the hill and issue Cole Beasley wants to plant his flag on, what a world we live in...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/us/cole-beasley-nfl-retire-covid-vaccine/index.html

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That's something I've been concerned about, since my fiancee will eventually need a kidney transplant...due to COVID giving her kidney failure.

I had read that people with certain blood cancers or organ transplant patients have a very reduced response to the vaccine... in some cases almost no response.  People with RA, lupus, or other autoimmune conditions seem to have a somewhat reduced response to the vaccine, though everybody is different of course.  I hadn't seen anything about the type of circumstance in my other post (going on an immunosuppressant well after vaccination) but it probably makes sense to take precautions just in case.  The timeline of the person in my story is unfortunate... if you recall, we were seeing an upswing in cases back in April.  Since cases have been dropping lately, perhaps they wouldn't have caught covid if we were talking about now.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, mattb65 said:

Choosing to retire from the NFL and forgo millions of dollars rather than get a vaccine, this is the hill and issue Cole Beasley wants to plant his flag on, what a world we live in...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/us/cole-beasley-nfl-retire-covid-vaccine/index.html

Quite a few of my friends are posting his stuff all over their socials in support, its the number one story over here. Lots of the Bills are anti vax. Beasley, Mckenzie, Poyer are really vocal and I'm pretty sure Allen and Diggs didnt get it.

[TimB]

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite a few of my friends are posting his stuff all over their socials in support, its the number one story over here. Lots of the Bills are anti vax. Beasley, Mckenzie, Poyer are really vocal and I'm pretty sure Allen and Diggs didnt get it.

Remember the last time his name was mentioned in here? 

[mattb65]

14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite a few of my friends are posting his stuff all over their socials in support, its the number one story over here. Lots of the Bills are anti vax. Beasley, Mckenzie, Poyer are really vocal and I'm pretty sure Allen and Diggs didnt get it.

Considering it's the Bills, what I could see happening is that they have another dominating regular season, their team looks great so long as everyone stays healthy.  Then come playoff time a covid outbreak sidelines all the anti vax players and they get knocked out. Not sure if this would embolden the antivaxxers because of "discrimination" or if it would be a wake up call that choices have consequences. 

Considering that Beasley would rather retire than get vaccinated, I'm pretty sure most will choose the former.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Considering it's the Bills, what I could see happening is that they have another dominating regular season, their team looks great so long as everyone stays healthy.  Then come playoff time a covid outbreak sidelines all the anti vax players and they get knocked out. Not sure if this would embolden the antivaxxers because of "discrimination" or if it would be a wake up call that choices have consequences. 

Considering that Beasley would rather retire than get vaccinated, I'm pretty sure most will choose the former.

That would be a very Bills thing to happen, going 19-0 and then losing the Super Bowl because Cole Beasley and others weren’t available to play because they didn’t get vaccinated and caused an outbreak among the team. If I were a Bills fan and that happened, I’d be livid and not spend another dime on the team until they got rid of those players, but I’m sure anti-vax fans would see it differently.

[Hoosier]

Half the country didn't even report yesterday.  Seems like that is becoming more common on weekends.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

That would be a very Bills thing to happen, going 19-0 and then losing the Super Bowl because Cole Beasley and others weren’t available to play because they didn’t get vaccinated and caused an outbreak among the team. If I were a Bills fan and that happened, I’d be livid and not spend another dime on the team until they got rid of those players, but I’m sure anti-vax fans would see it differently.

Apparently there are teams that are doing worse than the Bills with their vaccination rates. A report from the Washington Post this week listed the Colts, Jaguars, Cardinals and Chargers as the teams with the lowest vaccination rates.

I really don't think it's that big of a deal. Notice in baseball we're not seeing any more bad Covid outbreaks, even though most teams have several players that are not vaccinated. Overall vaccination rates are high enough and Covid rates are low enough now that it seems unlikely that we're going to see any more significant outbreaks on sports teams.

I think it's important that decisions are respected. It can be a more difficult decision for athletes because athletes do the hard work (diet and exercise) to put their bodies in position that they're much less vulnerable to getting severely ill from the virus compared to the general population. That gives some athletes the feeling that they'd rather rely on being healthy naturally than put something unnatural into their body that they don't really need. I find it understandable, but many people that are not athletes would have a hard time understanding that feeling.

I also hope the NFL loosens some of the restrictions when we get closer to the regular season. If the unvaccinated players are being tested every day and Covid rates continue to be very low, there's no reason for ridiculous restrictions like not allowing them to eat with others or not allowing them to leave the hotel. Hopefully common sense will prevail. It's time to get back to at least a semi normal.

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Apparently there are teams that are doing worse than the Bills with their vaccination rates. A report from the Washington Post this week listed the Colts, Jaguars, Cardinals and Chargers as the teams with the lowest vaccination rates.

I really don't think it's that big of a deal. Notice in baseball we're not seeing any more bad Covid outbreaks, even though most teams have several players that are not vaccinated. Overall vaccination rates are high enough and Covid rates are low enough now that it seems unlikely that we're going to see any more significant outbreaks on sports teams.

I think it's important that decisions are respected. It can be a more difficult decision for athletes because athletes do the hard work (diet and exercise) to put their bodies in position that they're much less vulnerable to getting severely ill from the virus compared to the general population. That gives some athletes the feeling that they'd rather rely on being healthy naturally than put something unnatural into their body that they don't really need. I find it understandable, but many people that are not athletes would have a hard time understanding that feeling.

I also hope the NFL loosens some of the restrictions when we get closer to the regular season. If the unvaccinated players are being tested every day and Covid rates continue to be very low, there's no reason for ridiculous restrictions like not allowing them to eat with others or not allowing them to leave the hotel. Hopefully common sense will prevail. It's time to get back to at least a semi normal.

100% agree with the semi normal thing. But let’s go back to my scenario: if you were a Bills fan (or a Bills owner or GM or coach) and the team made the Super Bowl, but Cole Beasley and a few others caught covid and couldn’t play, and the team lost as a result, would you be outraged with:

1) Beasley and those others for not getting vaccinated

2) the NFL for not letting them play while having covid

or

3) no one, because sh*t happens

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

100% agree with the semi normal thing. But let’s go back to my scenario: if you were a Bills fan (or a Bills owner or GM or coach) and the team made the Super Bowl, but Cole Beasley and a few others caught covid and couldn’t play, and the team lost as a result, would you be outraged with:

1) Beasley and those others for not getting vaccinated

2) the NFL for not letting them play while having covid

or

3) no one, because sh*t happens

I'll vote number 3. I would never be angry towards anyone for not taking the vaccine, but it's the right thing to do to not allow guys to play with Covid. I would just say it's an unfortunate situation with the pandemic going on. But again I really think something like that happening is very unlikely. Vaccination rates are high enough and Covid rates are low enough that team outbreaks are unlikely now. We see that the outbreaks have stopped in baseball, despite teams having some unvaccinated players.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll vote number 3. I would never be angry towards anyone for not taking the vaccine, but it's the right thing to do to not allow guys to play with Covid. I would just say it's an unfortunate situation with the pandemic going on. But again I really think something like that happening is very unlikely. Vaccination rates are high enough and Covid rates are low enough that team outbreaks are unlikely now. We see that the outbreaks have stopped in baseball, despite teams having some unvaccinated players.

As a Steelers fan, I’m going back to 2006 here, when a player’s personal decision became a liability to the team. Is Cole Beasley’s decision not to get the vaccine all that different from Ben Roethlisberger’s decision to ride a motorcycle without a helmet?

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

As a Steelers fan, I’m going back to 2006 here, when a player’s personal decision became a liability to the team. Is Cole Beasley’s decision not to get the vaccine all that different from Ben Roethlisberger’s decision to ride a motorcycle without a helmet?

Both of those are decisions that create only a very small chance of something bad happening. Most people take risks in life. I do think riding without a helmet is much worse than not taking the vaccine though. Pretty much everyone rides with a helmet. It's just a basic safety thing that almost everyone does. If you get into a motorcycle accident you have a much higher chance of being severely injured than being severely injured from Covid if you catch it. So I do think what Roethlisberger did is worse. However Roethlisberger is a guy that puts his heart and soul into helping that team win. One of the toughest sports players ever. Not the type of guy I would be angry with as a fan for a mistake like that.  And again I don't consider Beasley's decision a liability to the team because we're at a point now that it's very unlikely it will cause a significant problem for the team now that Covid is well under control. And it's not as if he's the only one. Most teams have several players that have chosen to not get vaccinated.

[fujiwara79]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty much everyone rides with a helmet. It's just a basic safety thing that almost everyone does.

are you kidding me?  i've seen tons of people that ride motorcycles without helmets.  you live in jersey?  that's probably why.  i believe new jersey requires helmets by law.  not all states are like that.  the "muh freedumbz" crowd has always been adamantly against having states require motorcyclists wear helmets.  they were against seat belt laws back in the day too.

[KokomoWX]

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Half the country didn't even report yesterday.  Seems like that is becoming more common on weekends.

 

I get a detailed email each day at 8 AM and the past few weeks, there has been no reporting pretty much for the Monday edition.  

[WestMichigan]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Half the country didn't even report yesterday.  Seems like that is becoming more common on weekends.

Michigan just went from not reporting on Sunday to not reporting on Saturday or Sunday.  Seems to be the trend for sure.

[winterwx21]

12 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

are you kidding me?  i've seen tons of people that ride motorcycles without helmets.  you live in jersey?  that's probably why.  i believe new jersey requires helmets by law.  not all states are like that.  the "muh freedumbz" crowd has always been adamantly against having states require motorcyclists wear helmets.  they were against seat belt laws back in the day too.

Yeah, I'm so used to seeing everyone wearing a helmet while riding because of where I live. Thanks for letting me know.

[TimB]

18 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Both of those are decisions that create only a very small chance of something bad happening. Most people take risks in life. I do think riding without a helmet is much worse than not taking the vaccine though. Pretty much everyone rides with a helmet. It's just a basic safety thing that almost everyone does. If you get into a motorcycle accident you have a much higher chance of being severely injured than being severely injured from Covid if you catch it. So I do think what Roethlisberger did is worse. However Roethlisberger is a guy that puts his heart and soul into helping that team win. One of the toughest sports players ever. Not the type of guy I would be angry with as a fan for a mistake like that.  And again I don't consider Beasley's decision a liability to the team because we're at a point now that it's very unlikely it will cause a significant problem for the team now that Covid is well under control. And it's not as if he's the only one. Most teams have several players that have chosen to not get vaccinated.

Here’s a question along those lines: don’t some players’ contracts have some sort of provision written into them where they can be punished for engaging in certain risky activities (anything from riding a motorcycle without a helmet to playing pick-up basketball), where if the player is injured doing said activity and unable to perform his job as a result, the team can cut pay/fine him? Are these provisions okay? What if said risky activity is not getting vaccinated? (I understand that most players got their current contract long before the covid vaccine existed, and they’d be free not to sign a contract with such a provision, but would a player turn down millions for something as simple as that?)

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

 

I get a detailed email each day at 8 AM and the past few weeks, there has been no reporting pretty much for the Monday edition.  

I know Indiana has stopped reporting on Sundays.

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I know Indiana has stopped reporting on Sundays.

The 7 day is down to 11,158 on worldometers which I think is partially from reporting changes, partially because this weekend became a partial holiday weekend from Juneteenth. If lawyer Craig updated today in pretty sure it would be sub 10k, I'll just have to settle for my celebration this Friday while I'll be on vacation in Maui, watching the sunset and drinking a Mai Tai. 

[Jonger]

21 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

are you kidding me?  i've seen tons of people that ride motorcycles without helmets.  you live in jersey?  that's probably why.  i believe new jersey requires helmets by law.  not all states are like that.  the "muh freedumbz" crowd has always been adamantly against having states require motorcyclists wear helmets.  they were against seat belt laws back in the day too.

I personally wear one when I ride, but it shouldn't be anyone's choice but their own. Who the hell wants to live somewhere where the decisions are all made for us and where it affects nobody but the individual?

[TimB]

34 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I personally wear one when I ride, but it shouldn't be anyone's choice but their own. Who the hell wants to live somewhere where the decisions are all made for us and where it affects nobody but the individual?

Don’t your motorcycle insurance rates increase every time a motorcyclist without a helmet splatters his brains all over the highway?

[Hoosier]

Getting close to having max vax protection.  My intent had been to wear a mask indoors until fully vaxxed (as per CDC guidance) and then stop, but my thinking on this is evolving.  I may still wear one indoors where there are a lot of people and at other times if I just want to hide my face.  No, I'm not planning to rob a bank lol  

Let's face it, people are kinda gross (except, of course, my fine friends here at American Weather) so if a mask helps cut down on the potential of picking up non-covid illnesses, that's great.  Although the amount of mask wearing is dropping, there are still more than enough people wearing them around here that you don't look like a weirdo for wearing one.  

I am young, not immunosuppressed and had systemic side effects from the vaccine, so there is every reason to feel confident that I am mounting a very robust immune response from it.  For me, wearing a mask at times is not going to be about covid.  Anybody else feel like this?