Coronavirus

[dan11295]

Very probable that the breakthrough cases that get hospitalized in particular are people who are immunocompromised. i.e. people that have to very careful about viral infections in general, not just Covid.

[Hoosier]

Today was technically the highest daily case count in IN in almost 10 weeks, though we've had a few other days since then that were barely below today's number. 

[nwohweather]

 

https://babylonbee.com/news/car-manufacturers-now-recommend-wearing-a-seatbelt-even-when-youre-outside-the-car 

[mattb65]

This is an interesting study on how well natural infection induced immunity protects against reinfection.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00158-2/fulltext

It was prospective and looked at usmc recruits.

10% of those with antibodies got infected and roughly 50% of those without antibodies got infected over a 6 week period.

Based on this study,  evidence of prior infection provided about an 80% protection. The reinfected individuals also had a lower viral load so probably less severe illness compared to the control group. Higher antibody levels also provided more protection.

The study population was mostly young males so it may not necessarily apply to other ages/genders. Still interesting. Though not directly tested in the study,  I think it implies that the mrna vaccine provide more protection against infection than natural immunity from prior infection. 

[StormfanaticInd]

We will probably hit 600k deaths on worldometers late next week. Overall the numbers continue to improve though

[MJO812]

Almost back to full capacity in NYC

[winterwx21]

Here in NJ the transmission rate has fallen to 0.63, the lowest it has been during the entire pandemic. Great to see the virus in rapid decline now.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Here in NJ the transmission rate has fallen to 0.63, the lowest it has been during the entire pandemic. Great to see the virus in rapid decline now.

Interesting to see the trends by region.  The Northeast has dropped quite a bit in the past 2-4 weeks, but if you go westward through the northern states in the Midwest/Plains/Northwest, the drops are not as significant (MI has dropped a lot, but they were a bit of an oddball with such a big rise prior to that).  

In fact, yesterday and today are our 2 highest case numbers in Indiana in the past ~10 weeks.

[Hoosier]

Variant info has now been added to the Indiana state dashboard.  The raw numbers of variant cases are not going to be accurate since only a portion of virus samples are genetically sequenced, but the percentage breakdown should be a better indicator.  Of the identified variant cases, about 3/4 of those are the UK variant, with the rest being the California, Brazil and South Africa variants.

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Interesting to see the trends by region.  The Northeast has dropped quite a bit in the past 2-4 weeks, but if you go westward through the northern states in the Midwest/Plains/Northwest, the drops are not as significant (MI has dropped a lot, but they were a bit of an oddball with such a big rise prior to that).  

In fact, yesterday and today are our 2 highest case numbers in Indiana in the past ~10 weeks.

I know New Jersey has one of the best vaccination rates. Right now we have 44% fully vaccinated and 61% have gotten one dose. I'm sure that's the biggest reason why we're seeing a major Covid decline here now.

[Cary67]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I know New Jersey has one of the best vaccination rates. Right now we have 44% fully vaccinated and 61% have gotten one dose. I'm sure that's the biggest reason why we're seeing a major Covid decline here now.

Hoping 60% with at least one shot maybe a target number in seeing significant case decline. IL still at only 46% with at least one shot

[mattb65]

As time goes on the total % vaccinated is becoming more and more similar to the 2020 election map, pretty remarkable,  the consequences to the areas that have bought into the lies about the vaccines will probably be seen next fall and winter. I wonder if we see the per capita new infections and deaths start to look the same. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

34 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

As time goes on the total % vaccinated is becoming more and more similar to the 2020 election map, pretty remarkable,  the consequences to the areas that have bought into the lies about the vaccines will probably be seen next fall and winter. I wonder if we see the per capita new infections and deaths start to look the same. 

 

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

I don't think we're getting to 90-95% immunity from covid illness + vaccinations anytime this year.  There is overlap between people who had covid and are also getting the vaccine which has to be factored in.  That being said, if we can even get that combined number to 80%, it would be great.

[A-L-E-K]

that's not how this works.gif

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't think we're getting to 90-95% immunity from covid illness + vaccinations anytime this year.  There is overlap between people who had covid and are also getting the vaccine which has to be factored in.  That being said, if we can even get that combined number to 80%, it would be great.

Yeah I think 80% is a good target.

[mattb65]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It won't matter. CDC released today that 1 in 3 have contracted covid 19. Vaccinations will end up around 60-65%, putting us at over 90-95% herd immunity.

From February 2020 to March 2021, the CDC estimates 114.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19, 97.1 million had symptomatic illnesses and 5.6 million were hospitalized with COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/cdc-estimates-1-in-3-americans-have-been-infected-with-covid-19

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

Yes you can still get covid, but who cares if you don't get really sick. Vaccines and prior infections almost completely eliminate hospitalizations. Those that refuse to get vaccinated, that risk is on them. We shouldn't have to worry about them one bit. That is their choice.

[BuffaloWeather]

My cousins dad who is 45 years old is going on day 4 requiring oxygen and in the hospital with covid. Improving a little bit each day.

[StormfanaticInd]

India situation still getting worse. Over 400k cases on worldometers today

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, mattb65 said:

As others noted,  there are a number of problems here.

1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 

2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection.  So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 

3. Local level of immunity will be important,  if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. 

If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction.  Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability.

 

I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine,  everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.

I think that the CDC has estimated in those studies is that the infected percentage of the oldest cohort is lower...which is advantageous. 65+ is 23% positive. That cohort has high vaccine uptake. The 18 to 49 cohort is 41% positive with lower vaccine uptake....so combined you might get closer to 70 to 80% immunity. 

[Santa Clause]

14 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

India situation still getting worse. Over 400k cases on worldometers today

Likely going to cause mutation spreading so quickly and out of control.

[BuffaloWeather]

Got my 2nd shot today, will let you know how it goes.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[Hoosier]

Looks like we are in the plateau death period for now, largely a consequence of hospitalization numbers hanging in a relatively tight range for the past 3-4 weeks or so.

[nwohweather]

Need to end all mask mandates nationally. I know I’ve thrown mine away. Vaccines are completely available now, quit protecting those who refuse to make themselves immune. Tired of this nation coddling people

[A-L-E-K]

check out the huge dick on this guy^

[Malacka11]

I know it's wrong, but I don't disagree with his sentiment. If only it were that cut-and-dry.

[TimB]

I’d also be all in on the idea of just letting the virus do what it may among the unvaccinated once everyone has had their chance to get a vaccine, except for the worry that continuing to spread the virus may produce variants that make the vaccine less effective.

[Hoosier]

Saw a shopper without a mask yesterday.  I see little kids without a mask sometimes but this is the first time in a long time that I have seen an adult customer in a store without one.  It was a woman who was maybe in her 40s.  I turned around and she was right there behind me.  I don't know if she simply forgot (one time I almost walked inside before realizing I wasn't wearing one) or if it was purposeful.