Coronavirus

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm?fbclid=IwAR3CFm09EUk2AjKgLB0aSiJ1AQ65zVhb-lSFPjjhtdqCfhIna0ULNreHLAc

It's a little confusing and I'm not sure I figured it out, but maybe.

I think the average on the state dashboard is going by who actually died more recently (in the last 7 days and not before).  But many times, some deaths that are reported each day go back weeks or even months.  The worldometers 7 day average of 9 deaths may explain this.

If you look at 4/20 for example, the state dashboard lists 2 deaths as you showed, but worldometers reported 8 deaths.  So perhaps 6 of those deaths go back farther in time?

 

[MJO812]

[schoeppeya]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Had any thoughts about leaving during all of this?

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

It's a little confusing and I'm not sure I figured it out, but maybe.

I think the average on the state dashboard is going by who actually died more recently (in the last 7 days and not before).  But many times, some deaths that are reported each day go back weeks or even months.  The worldometers 7 day average of 9 deaths may explain this.

If you look at 4/20 for example, the state dashboard lists 2 deaths as you showed, but worldometers reported 8 deaths.  So perhaps 6 of those deaths go back farther in time?

 

I think you're right. That would explain the discrepancy.

Any way you look at it, the trends in deaths are the best they've been since the onset.

[Hoosier]

Seeing the early signs of a plateau and possibly a dip in vaccinations.  Not unexpected but was hoping this trend wouldn't have started for at least a few more weeks.

[nwohweather]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-woman-defies-state-travel-advisory-11619025586?mod=trending_now_opn_5

Rules for thee and not for me. In case anyone was wondering, the Lansing resident is the Governor

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-woman-defies-state-travel-advisory-11619025586?mod=trending_now_opn_5

Rules for thee and not for me. In case anyone was wondering, the Lansing resident is the Governor

I think criticism is fair in this case.  Her father had been vaccinated, but Whitmer herself did not receive a first dose until April 6.  

There have been too many hypocritical instances of politicians preaching one thing and then doing another in the past year.  

[mattb65]

54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seeing the early signs of a plateau and possibly a dip in vaccinations.  Not unexpected but was hoping this trend wouldn't have started for at least a few more weeks.

It's the start of the dip, we are definitely past the immunization peak.  I too wish we had maintained the pace a bit longer but it's dropping as predicted, and the drop is likely to accelerate in the next few weeks.  I'm anticipating media hysteria on the drop off in vaccination rates over the next couple weeks.  I posted before that the vaccine projection by youyanggu from months ago on vaccination rates appears to be remarkably spot on.

On the plus side the expected collapse in cases also appears to be happening right on schedule also. *fingers crossed*

[fujiwara79]

it's definitely much easier to find a vaccine now.  a couple of months ago, landing an appointment was like striking oil; not anymore.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

It's the start of the dip, we are definitely past the immunization peak.  I too wish we had maintained the pace a bit longer but it's dropping as predicted, and the drop is likely to accelerate in the next few weeks.  I'm anticipating media hysteria on the drop off in vaccination rates over the next couple weeks.  I posted before that the vaccine projection by youyanggu from months ago on vaccination rates appears to be remarkably spot on.

On the plus side the expected collapse in cases also appears to be happening right on schedule also. *fingers crossed*

What was the percentage of total vaccinations? 60-65?

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What was the percentage of total vaccinations? 60-65?

Edit: misread your post the first time...

By the end of June, total 62% of the total population immune 32% from vaccine alone, (45% of the total american population vaccinated aka 149 million people) 13% from vaccine plus infection, 17% from infection alone.

By January 2022 the breakdown is 64% total protection, 38% vaccine, 16% vaccine plus infection, 10% infection alone.

Link - https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

He posts all of the assumptions in his model in terms of rate of waning natural immunity, effectiveness of vaccines, etc.

 

According to the CDC we are already at 41% of the population that has received at least the first shot.  The model estimates  60-70% total will get the vaccine by the end of the year. As we know the protection isn't 100% from the vaccine in terms of preventing transmission, the model estimates an 85% vaccine efficacy rate which is why the total immune from vaccination stays below that number. 

[StormfanaticInd]

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[WaryWarren]

I got Pfizer #2 on Monday. Nothing more than a headache and some lethargy. Do it, you hedging wussies.

[mattb65]

18 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

I got Pfizer #2 on Monday. Nothing more than a headache and some lethargy. Do it, you hedging wussies.

I've had my second dose of Pfizer since early January, no problems at all. 

 

Not sure why people are living their life in fear. Get out there, get the shot, be a patriot. We are at war with the virus,  when you look back do you want to be a draft dodger/bone spur pansy or do you want to be a freedom loving american that did your part?

 

Insert 1,000 american flag emojis.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

I've had my second dose of Pfizer since early January, no problems at all. 

 

Not sure why people are living their life in fear. Get out there, get the shot, be a patriot. We are at war with the virus,  when you look back do you want to be a draft dodger/bone spur pansy or do you want to be a freedom loving american that did your part?

 

Insert 1,000 american flag emojis.

Almost without exception, the people I know who aren't getting vaxxed aren't living in fear at all.  They have been out there living life for the past year and would just as soon have the mask mandates end.  They may be afraid of the vaccine but they aren't too concerned about covid.

[TimB]

38 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

I've had my second dose of Pfizer since early January, no problems at all. 

 

Not sure why people are living their life in fear. Get out there, get the shot, be a patriot. We are at war with the virus,  when you look back do you want to be a draft dodger/bone spur pansy or do you want to be a freedom loving american that did your part?

 

Insert 1,000 american flag emojis.

A lot of the people who won’t get vaxxed think being a draft dodger/bone spur pansy is heroic. After all, skipping out on Vietnam can be made up for by fighting in one’s own personal Vietnam (trying to avoid getting STDs).

[BuffaloWeather]

Vaccines work

Israel records no new daily COVID deaths for first time in 10 months

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reports-no-new-daily-covid-deaths-for-first-time-in-10-months/

[winterwx21]

I just read that upon further examination by US vaccine advisors, the amount of blood clots linked to the J&J vaccine increased to 15. All of them women, and 13 of the 15 under 50 years old. I assume they will resume the J&J vaccine with a warning for the blood clot risk to younger women.

[fujiwara79]

interesting, suicides actually decreased across most countries during the lockdowns last spring.  united states dropped about 10%.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/24/surprisingly-suicide-has-become-rarer-during-the-pandemic

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

interesting, suicides actually decreased across most countries during the lockdowns last spring.  united states dropped about 10%.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/24/surprisingly-suicide-has-become-rarer-during-the-pandemic

Oh God...

[Cary67]

16 hours ago, mattb65 said:

I've had my second dose of Pfizer since early January, no problems at all. 

 

Not sure why people are living their life in fear. Get out there, get the shot, be a patriot. We are at war with the virus,  when you look back do you want to be a draft dodger/bone spur pansy or do you want to be a freedom loving american that did your part?

 

Insert 1,000 american flag emojis.

Just received my Pfizer second dose yesterday. First dose just a sore arm but this one has hit like a truck. Low grade fever, chills, couldn't sleep last night. Arm really sore, fatigue, and body aches I didn't know could hurt.lol Took some acetaminophen to cut fever and aches hopefully starts to wind down in the next 24hrs. 

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I just read that upon further examination by US vaccine advisors, the amount of blood clots linked to the J&J vaccine increased to 15. All of them women, and 13 of the 15 under 50 years old. I assume they will resume the J&J vaccine with a warning for the blood clot risk to younger women.

This is definitely interesting,  if the rough math I did before is still close to accurate this would correlate to a roughly 1 in 100,000 risk of this serious adverse reaction in women under 50.

I wonder if there are other commonalities besides gender like being on combined oral contraceptives as an additional risk factor. 

I agree either a warning or even an outright restriction on giving it to women under 50 would both be reasonable. 

Even though the risk is small, the consequences are devastating. If I were in the at risk demographic I would 100% choose Pfizer or Moderna.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Just received my Pfizer second dose yesterday. First dose just a sore arm but this one has hit like a truck. Low grade fever, chills, couldn't sleep last night. Arm really sore, fatigue, and body aches I didn't know could hurt.lol Took some acetaminophen to cut fever and aches hopefully starts to wind down in the next 24hrs. 

My wife had similar symptoms the day after her second shot of Moderna. The following day she felt perfectly fine.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Oh God...

As someone with some experience in suicide attempts (unfortunately), it often takes a long time to get to such a desperate point in life... sometimes many years.  There are exceptions of course.  I hope the suicide numbers are not really above baseline in the coming years (not that the baseline is something to celebrate), but the jury is out as far as that goes.  

My position is that the closures were justified early on in the pandemic.  We were dealing with a brand new virus, learning as we go and with very limited ability to test, almost flying blind.  I think the risk of keeping everything open and then potentially getting a quick, overwhelming surge into the hospitals was too great.  I do think some things remained closed for too long, especially in certain states.  

[RogueWaves]

UK downgrades C-19

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

[TimB]

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As someone with some experience in suicide attempts (unfortunately), it often takes a long time to get to such a desperate point in life... sometimes many years.  There are exceptions of course.  I hope the suicide numbers are not really above baseline in the coming years (not that the baseline is something to celebrate), but the jury is out as far as that goes.  

My position is that the closures were justified early on in the pandemic.  We were dealing with a brand new virus, learning as we go and with very limited ability to test, almost flying blind.  I think the risk of keeping everything open and then potentially getting a quick, overwhelming surge into the hospitals was too great.  I do think some things remained closed for too long, especially in certain states.  

I don’t disagree with your point that we still have yet to know what effect this pandemic will have on the suicide rate in 2021 (or 2022 or 2023). But we can’t definitively say it will go up, or go down, or stay the same as the (like you said) already horrific baseline. But evidence that suicide rates have gone down so far makes those who categorically state things like “pandemic restrictions will cause (or are causing) the suicide rate to skyrocket” look all the more ludicrous. It’s no longer just that those claims are unsubstantiated, it’s that there is now evidence to the contrary.

[CheeselandSkies]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t disagree with your point that we still have yet to know what effect this pandemic will have on the suicide rate in 2021 (or 2022 or 2023). But we can’t definitively say it will go up, or go down, or stay the same as the (like you said) already horrific baseline. But evidence that suicide rates have gone down so far makes those who categorically state things like “pandemic restrictions will cause (or are causing) the suicide rate to skyrocket” look all the more ludicrous. It’s no longer just that those claims are unsubstantiated, it’s that there is now evidence to the contrary.

I admit the first couple months of total lockdown were pretty depressing, and that was just from stir-craziness. My fiancee and I were never at risk of losing our livelihood (I'm in broadcast media, she's a social worker).

[fujiwara79]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

As someone with some experience in suicide attempts (unfortunately), it often takes a long time to get to such a desperate point in life... sometimes many years.  There are exceptions of course.  I hope the suicide numbers are not really above baseline in the coming years (not that the baseline is something to celebrate), but the jury is out as far as that goes.  

My position is that the closures were justified early on in the pandemic.  We were dealing with a brand new virus, learning as we go and with very limited ability to test, almost flying blind.  I think the risk of keeping everything open and then potentially getting a quick, overwhelming surge into the hospitals was too great.  I do think some things remained closed for too long, especially in certain states.  

suicides have been steadily increasing (with a slight dip in 2019) for the past twenty years, and i fully expect them to go back up to the pre-pandemic baseline.  however, since they were already increasing for 20 years prior to covid, there isn't a way to show cause-and-effect if we see them begin increasing again.

[mattb65]

3 hours ago, mattb65 said:

This is definitely interesting,  if the rough math I did before is still close to accurate this would correlate to a roughly 1 in 100,000 risk of this serious adverse reaction in women under 50.

I wonder if there are other commonalities besides gender like being on combined oral contraceptives as an additional risk factor. 

I agree either a warning or even an outright restriction on giving it to women under 50 would both be reasonable. 

Even though the risk is small, the consequences are devastating. If I were in the at risk demographic I would 100% choose Pfizer or Moderna.

This is a really good article that goes into the data on the blood clots from this vaccine and explains the rationale that different members of the advisory committee used in making their decisions.  They also discuss the risks and benefits of different courses of action. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/23/health/johnson-vaccine-acip-recommendation/index.html

They present a lot of numbers in the risks/benefits section. 

"For every million doses of vaccine given to women 18 to 49, 13 TTS cases can be expected, Oliver said. But 12 deaths from Covid-19 would be prevented and 127 ICU admissions would be prevented among those women if they had access to the Janssen vaccine."