Hoosier Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Actually there are still a fair number of people passing by... walking, biking, jogging. Gotta watch those runners, they expel a lot of breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Had a cluster of like 8 people pass by wtf. No masks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Had a cluster of like 8 people pass by wtf. No masks Weird question, but is that the Erie Lackawanna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Weird question, but is that the Erie Lackawanna? No, Centennial Park in Munster. Came over here because I'm tired of looking at Griffith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: No excuse for what is going on in Wisconsin. It's not a partisan thing... everybody no matter your leanings should be able to agree that now isn't the time to hold voting. Going out to get food and necessities is essential. Voting on April 7, 2020, is not. Except it is a partisan thing because of who ruled that the voting should go on. One party was smart about this and wanted it stopped because it is incredibly dangerous, the other is looking only politically and only for gain. I know you don't want politics to get involved in this thread but you can't ignore the obvious facts here both at a state and national level. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 I'd be curious as to what the increased suicide tally is now that people are stuck at home and have a lot of time on their hands. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: Except it is a partisan thing because of who ruled that the voting should go on. One party was smart about this and wanted it stopped because it is incredibly dangerous, the other is looking only politically and only for gain. I know you don't want politics to get involved in this thread but you can't ignore the obvious facts here both at a state and national level. I mean the general public of Dems, Reps, Indies should be against it. The outrage should be non partisan. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I mean the general public of Dems, Reps, Indies should be against it. The outrage should be non partisan. Yeah it should be, but it isn't and that is a problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 hässlich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I mean the general public of Dems, Reps, Indies should be against it. The outrage should be non partisan. ‘Should be’ and ‘what is’ are two entirely different things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Maywood's own John Prine just succumbed to the virus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: We all lost one of the greats from this forum today. IL mailman to the Mark Twain of folk, there will never be another.... Hey Jackstraw, I merged your thread into here since it appears his death is due to covid. I am ok with having a virus thread due to the extraordinary circumstances, but don't really want to set a precedent for any and all kinds of OT threads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 The United States case fatality rate is approaching 3.5%. It was around 1% not that long ago. It really shows that despite testing being better than it was in the beginning (a low bar to clear), we are still in catchup mode and a lot of cases will never be diagnosed because the window of catching a case is open for only so long before a person recovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 New York City officials will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths of people who die at home following a WNYC/Gothamistreport revealing a staggering number of such deaths that were not included in the official tally. In a statement, Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for New York City’s Health Department, said the city would no longer report only those cases that were confirmed by a laboratory test. “The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home,” she said. She didn’t say when the city would begin reporting suspected deaths along with the overall count. But the new protocol is likely to add thousands to the toll. The announcement comes as New York City saw the largest single day of deaths so far from the COVID-19 pandemic — 727 people passed away in a 24-hour period. But even that number failed to include many of the cases in which first responders encountered someone who had already died at home or other non-hospital settings. That happened 280 times on Monday, according to data from the Fire Department. While not all of those deaths are necessarily caused by COVID-19, it’s a staggering increase over the average 25 home deaths the city usually saw on any given day before the pandemic swept the five boroughs. Over the last two weeks, FDNY officials said 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year. On Tuesday evening, the city reported 3,544 people have died of coronavirus, as confirmed by lab tests. Earlier in the day, Mayor Bill de Blasio acknowledged that the vast majority of deaths taking place at home were likely also due to the virus, meaning the death toll could be as much as 70 percent higher than currently reported figures. “We do want to know the truth about every death at home, but it’s safe to assume that the vast majority are coronavirus related,” he said. “That makes it even more sober, the sense of how many people we are losing.” An FDNY paramedic who asked his name not be used because he wasn’t authorized to speak to reporters said he’s watched a dramatic shift over the past three weeks. First, he was called to attend to people with mild symptoms and anxiety about being sick; the second week, it was critically ill patients who were rushed to the hospital. “This week it went from critical patients, to just cardiac arrests all over the place,” he said. “We get there and the family’s telling us, ‘We went to the hospital five days ago and they discharged us’ or ‘We stayed home. We called our doctor. We called 311, a tele-doc gave us a prescription for a Z-pack this morning.’ And now they’re dying.” The paramedic called the situation demoralizing. He spoke to WNYC/Gothamist while waiting for police officers to respond to the scene of one home death in Brooklyn on Tuesday morning. “What we’re seeing now is people literally dropping dead at home” he said. “Nothing we do helps.” https://gothamist.com/news/death-count-expected-soar-nyc-says-it-will-begin-reporting-suspected-covid-deaths-addition-confirmed-ones 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 On 4/7/2020 at 3:18 PM, UMB WX said: WI. Republicans are among the most craven and disgusting in all of America. City went from 180 polling locations to 5. counting on extremely low turnout and all the better if they can kill off a few POC in the process. That's been the GOP policy for decades Noice. Playing political scab in the midst of a tragedy. Should be ashamed of yourself! On 4/7/2020 at 3:37 PM, ovweather said: But it's basically an assumption China tried to block anything. I'm not defending China for anything. They are the most overpopulated country on the planet with many horrible policies and practices. Did they make mistakes in trying to contain the virus early? Sure. But every country, including the US, has been guilty of that. Every other country should have been on lock-down back in January or February when it was obvious what kind of virus we were dealing with instead of waiting until the virus was spreading rampantly worldwide. No one is to blame for an act of nature, though. Some scientists who study the origin of viruses now believe that Covid-19 may well have been in the human population for years in a much lesser state. But it just very recently has adapted / evolved to what we are seeing now - a much more deadly and contagious virus. There are many unknowns with Covid-19 right now. Why do some people get deathly ill while others don't even blink? Is there a genetic component to the virus that makes some people more vulnerable to it? It will take years to better understand its origin, pathology, etc. Sadly, in a world that is way overpopulated by humans, many of which aren't the healthiest to begin with because of personal practices and environmental factors, such viruses have the potential to be global killers. All we can do is evolve / adapt, too. A pair of good thoughts you shared. Thx As for the NY'ers dying at home, I think many folks that might otherwise go into a hospital haven't due to any number of reasons. (you make your list) My bro-in-law recently passed at home, not in a hospital because that's where he wanted to spend his final hours, in familiar surroundings with fam, pets, etc. Even per this post, the "test" may be finding COVID-19 in everybody, and being listed as cause of death without any deeper understanding. Not saying the tests are phony, but the Italian's own gov't medical officer has been hushed for saying that in his professional opinion, only about 12% of their cases were strictly the virus, and not folks with 1 or more prior conditions complicating the matter. Personally, I'd like to get my life/liberties/future/hope/income and sense of normalcy back. The sooner the better. The post regarding suicides is legit. So too, is how many people will have died due to strokes and heart attacks and such because they couldn't get treatment or chose to stay away from the trauma centers. Have fun tracking this everyone. I'm moving on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 @RogueWaves Just curious why you found humor in Hoosier's post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 I thought you all might find this comparison interesting. a biostatistician asks this: And a meteorologist from EUMETSAT replies like yea: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 anyway, today is the first day I have caught all the way up on the ‘rona news and not been grimly depressed. UW-IHME sees evidence that social distancing actually works, https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1247237645945704455?s=20 And the incorporation of new data into the IHME model indicates the plausible possibility that IL might not go up against the wall on its medical resource capacity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, sokolow said: anyway, today is the first day I have caught all the way up on the ‘rona news and not been grimly depressed. UW-IHME sees evidence that social distancing actually works, https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1247237645945704455?s=20 And the incorporation of new data into the IHME model indicates the plausible possibility that IL might not go up against the wall on its medical resource capacity Same here, I had to back away from the news cycle for a few days. As much as we deal with models on this board I tried to take the IHME with a grain of salt but I didn't think it's output would have been as bad as the AVN. Now it is bouncing lower, much lower, but I sure hope it's not doing the 'ol weather model windshield wiper on snowstorm tracks. Wagon's down I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Yeah, that is a significant downward revision by IHME. Nice to see. The range now goes from about 30k-130k with projected of 60k. Unfortunately the low end of the range looks out to lunch. Based on how this illness goes and using the patterns in other countries and applying to the US, there is no reason to think there won't be high 1000 to potentially over 2000 daily deaths in the US for the next week. Then should start coming down but remain high... well over 1000/day for a while. We could already be around 30,000 by end of next week. If we keep up with what we're doing until at least June, then hopefully we can keep the number more in the 50k-60k range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 20 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Noice. Playing political scab in the midst of a tragedy. Should be ashamed of yourself! A pair of good thoughts you shared. Thx As for the NY'ers dying at home, I think many folks that might otherwise go into a hospital haven't due to any number of reasons. (you make your list) My bro-in-law recently passed at home, not in a hospital because that's where he wanted to spend his final hours, in familiar surroundings with fam, pets, etc. Even per this post, the "test" may be finding COVID-19 in everybody, and being listed as cause of death without any deeper understanding. Not saying the tests are phony, but the Italian's own gov't medical officer has been hushed for saying that in his professional opinion, only about 12% of their cases were strictly the virus, and not folks with 1 or more prior conditions complicating the matter. Personally, I'd like to get my life/liberties/future/hope/income and sense of normalcy back. The sooner the better. The post regarding suicides is legit. So too, is how many people will have died due to strokes and heart attacks and such because they couldn't get treatment or chose to stay away from the trauma centers. Have fun tracking this everyone. I'm moving on.. There are numerous articles about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Regarding warm weather and the virus: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-warm-weather-will-not-slow-covid-19-transmission Even if it does help reduce transmission to some extent, we are vulnerable due to how contagious it is and any potential warm weather benefit could be undone if we aren't careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Regarding warm weather and the virus: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-warm-weather-will-not-slow-covid-19-transmission Even if it does help reduce transmission to some extent, we are vulnerable due to how contagious it is and any potential warm weather benefit could be undone if we aren't careful. Not to mention warm weather on its own will likely draw a lot of people out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Been watching Justin's channel for many years. Pretty amazing how they're trying to help get PPE's to health care workers in N AL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 This will change not only America, but the world forever, and that’s not a bad thing. When struck with a catastrophe the human race pulls together, when the human race pulls together we can defeat anything, including Covid-19. This isn’t China’s problem, this isn’t Europe’s problem, this isn’t America’s problem, this is OUR problem, our meaning the world. Let’s push politics to the side, and let the wonderful doctors come together for a vaccine and ultimately come together for a stronger healthier world. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ovweather Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: This will change not only America, but the world forever, and that’s not a bad thing. When struck with a catastrophe the human race pulls together, when the human race pulls together we can defeat anything, including Covid-19. This isn’t China’s problem, this isn’t Europe’s problem, this isn’t America’s problem, this is OUR problem, our meaning the world. Let’s push politics to the side, and let the wonderful doctors come together for a vaccine and ultimately come together for a stronger healthier world. Now if we can just get the world to come together and show as much concern and compassion for environmental health and climate change / global warming as we have for Covid (and not make it a political issue). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 5 hours ago, CoachLB said: Jesus Toledo has more cases than Cincinnati? IMO our government needs to start planning for how we re-open post social distancing. As we start to decline off this peak, they need to have plans in place to take temperatures before entering any buildings. Also they need to require masks for anyone inside an interior building. Our economy simply cannot survive if this continues past May 1. Safety is paramount, but in 3 weeks we need to be ready to go out to eat and shop at Target again. If that doesn't happen, the cure will indeed wind up being worse than the sickness overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Here is the model the WH likes to use https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 60,000 deaths .....down from 120K the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14 you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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