Coronavirus

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

Do you think an alarm bell goes off when herd immunity is reached?

[Powerball]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t immediately suspect a conspiracy. But a lot of people will. You’ve seen from this thread itself how many people throw rationality to the wind when it comes to this vaccine. I’m not saying he isn’t knowledgeable or privy to the issues at hand, but in my opinion he shouldn’t be the communicator of them. 

So the bolded is something President Biden will have to clear up with his staff, as he seems to think Pfizer's CEO provides at least some value as a communicator about the vaccine if he invited him to his press conference.

[Powerball]

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Do you think an alarm bell goes off when herd immunity is reached?

All we know is the CDC has said:

1. Herd immunity will be achieved when a percentage of the *TOTAL* population is fully vaccinated.

2. That percentage is still known.

Anything beyond what the CDC has said is conjecture not based on any scientific evidence about this virus.

[BuffaloWeather]

Updated numbers

The United States had administered 198,317,040 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Thursday morning and distributed 255,400,665 doses, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday. Should hit 200 million doses tomorrow and 50% with 1 dose this week. 

125m age 16+ have first dose - ~47.2% (123.9m - ~46.5% yesterday)

124.7m adults have first doses - 48.3% (122.9m - 47.6% yesterday)

 

3,525,204 administered

78,498,290 fully vaccinated (23.6% total pop, 30.3% adults)

34,844,584 above 65 fully vaccinated (63.7%)

[mattb65]

14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

Have you reviewed the infection and immunization curves in Israel and the United Kingdom. Once they had over 40% of their populations with some level of immunity from vaccination,, their infection curves showed exponential decay. We are getting close to those same levels of immunity in the US even with a large segment of people not eligible to get vaccinated yet. That segment obviously doesn't tend to get bad outcomes from this virus which is important to consider.

The more the better obviously but I think there is compelling data that people will be able to resume most normal activities very soon.  I think the July 4th date proposed by Pres Biden or maybe sooner is realistic. I don't think we'll have a herd immunity level of immunization by that point in time and I don't think it will matter. A critical enough mass will be vaccinated, anyone who wants to be vaccinated  that has a significant level of risk will have had a chance to be vaccinated by that time period.

 

Edit: you said there isn't data on this,  only conjecture, that's wrong,  see paragraph 1.

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

All we know is the CDC has said:

1. Herd immunity will be achieved when a percentage of the *TOTAL* population is fully vaccinated.

2. That percentage is still known.

Anything beyond what the CDC has said is conjecture not based on any scientific evidence about this virus.

We shouldn't ignore those who have been infected and there's a fairly wide range of estimates on that

People are not acting normally across the US. Mobility is down and people are taking precautions. There is no hard line between when herd immunity is achieved and herd immunity isn't achieved.

Young kids potentially being less susceptible to infection and less productive spreaders and non homogeneous population mixing may lower the herd immunity threshold a bit from a simple Ro calculation. 

 

[OSUmetstud]

My uneducated opinion but given that sars cov 2 has a proof reading mechanism and that it only goes antigenic drift and not shift unlike flu I think its really unlikely we'd need a vaccine every year. Good to prepare logistical for those possibilities though. 

[Powerball]

There's another article from CNBC this morning where it's reported Dr. Fauci also said Booster shots may be needed.

He goes into detail as to why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/dr-fauci-when-we-will-need-booster-shots-for-covid-vaccine-timeline.html

Quote

...Recent data suggests that Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid vaccines provide protection for at least six months, Fauci said.

Pfizer released data on April 1 showing that its mRNA vaccine is highly effective six months after the second dose.

Moderna said Tuesday that its Covid vaccine, which uses similar technology, was more than 90% effective at protecting against Covid and more than 95% effective against severe disease up to six months after the second dose.

“We know for sure it’s effective for six months and highly likely that it will be effective for considerably longer period of time,” Fauci said.

The Pfizer study only measured to the six-month mark, and more research needs to be done to determine when or how vaccine protection wanes.

“The way to get the answer is to just follow people closely enough to determine when that level of efficacy or protection diminishes, both with regard to the level of the antibodies as well as clinical data with regard to breakthrough infections,” Fauci said. (Breakthrough cases refer to when people who are vaccinated get infected.)

Ultimately, “if it turns out [to last] a year or a year and a half, we very well may need to get booster shots to keep up the level of protection,” Fauci said.

Protection could end up lasting two to three years, but the point is that boosters are still on the table as a possibility, he told Politico on April 5...

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

There's another article from CNBC this morning where it's reported Dr. Fauci also said Booster shots may be needed.

He also goes into detail as to why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/dr-fauci-when-we-will-need-booster-shots-for-covid-vaccine-timeline.html

 

 

I just feel like this will fan the flames of vaccine hesitancy, and this has already been a bad week in that regard.

[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I just feel like this will fan the flames of vaccine hesitancy, and this has already been a bad week in that regard.

We can't have it both ways.

In this thread, there was at least one complaint about the government not being transparent enough with the general public about vaccine reserch.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to ensure everyone has the expectation that the currently recommended 2 doses may not be enough for protection as more research is done, so that people are prepared if that day comes. 

[TimB]

Just now, Powerball said:

We can't have it both ways.

In this thread, there was at least one complaint about the government not being transparent enough with the general public about vaccine reserch.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to ensure everyone has the expectation that the first 2 doses may not be enough for protection as more research is done, so that people are prepared if that day comes. 

You’re right. Hiding the bad news from the public is never a good idea either.

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

My uneducated opinion but given that sars cov 2 has a proof reading mechanism and that it only goes antigenic drift and not shift unlike flu I think its really unlikely we'd need a vaccine every year. Good to prepare logistical for those possibilities though. 

Antibodies don't just disappear do they? A year from now those vaccinated will likely have partial immunity and still be able to avoid severe illness? 

[schoeppeya]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

You’re right. Hiding the bad news from the public is never a good idea either.

Happy medium is maybe not discussing scientific hypotheticals as part of your messaging to the general public?

[Powerball]

35 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Edit: you said there isn't data on this,  only conjecture, that's wrong,  see paragraph 1.

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

[schoeppeya]

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

Like what? What countries are closer?

Come on man... the "data" isn't being hotly disputed, just the interpretations of that data. Data is hard facts. 

[OSUmetstud]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Antibodies don't just disappear do they? A year from now those vaccinated will likely have partial immunity and still be able to avoid severe illness? 

Theres b cells and t cells that are tough to test for. We dont have lots of antibodies just circulating in our blood on the reg. 

[Powerball]

4 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

...the "data" isn't being hotly disputed... 

The conclusion about herd immunity by UCL (that is also being repeated here) based on that data is what's being disputed.

[Hoosier]

In some ways I think there is too much obsession over the term herd immunity.  Not to say we shouldn't have as many vaccinated as possible, but I am pretty sure "herd immunity" for covid is not going to look like it does for polio, measles, or other diseases that are almost non-existent (especially in the United States).  I think our best case is sort of a watered down, poor man's version of it.

[Powerball]

After issuing a stay-at-home order last week, it seems officials in Ontario are considering more restrictions as a string of COVID-19 records have been smashed as cited by their chief medical officer. 

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/covid-19-ontario-sets-record-with-4736-new-cases-field-hospital-being-readied-in-toronto

[Hoosier]

Apparently Michigan did another one of their reviews of past deaths.  Takes a little extra work to sort out the more recent deaths.

[StormfanaticInd]

Something I kinda looked over yesterday is that they did over 67k more test and came in with 1001 less positive. So that is definitely encouraging 

 

[mattb65]

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

There's been no better cause and effect relationship in this pandemic than vaccine uptake in a population group and subsequent declines in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

There's a difference between herd immunity in a population acting like it did before the pandemic and the current herd immunity threshold in a population acting like it is now and with the other environmental factors that affect transmission. We can and will overcome the herd immunity threshold and cases will start to decline in the coming weeks/months,  I have a lot of confidence that this will happen because it's happened in comparable countries.

I also think the current prevalence of the virus and hospitalizations should be some of the main metrics used to inform policy and messaging on how cautious people need to be at a particular time and that there can be different rules for people that are vaccinated and people that are not vaccinated. The herd immunity threshold will be different in the summer than it will be in the fall and winter but the rate of cases will reflect the current amount of immunity and caution needed to keep things contained. 

[Stebo]

My sister's two boys have covid, the 12 year old has had some symptoms as well, the 10 year old is fine. I do worry about my sister who has some preexisting conditions though, at the possibility of catching it.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My sister's two boys have covid, the 12 year old has had some symptoms as well, the 10 year old is fine. I do worry about my sister who has some preexisting conditions though, at the possibility of catching it.

I put some advice below, but you have to click to see it.

Seems like an appropriate time for her to invoke the break glass option and vacate the home for a week or two.  12 and 10 year olds are practically considered adults in some societies.

Seriously though, hope things turn out well.

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

I put some advice below, but you have to click to see it.

 

  Hide contents

Seems like an appropriate time for her to invoke the break glass option and vacate the home for a week or two.  12 and 10 year olds are practically considered adults in some societies.

Seriously though, hope things turn out well.

 

 

Lol, if it was the 12 year old in my house, he probably could be alone for a week. I am just glad I hadn't seen them since before Easter.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

This could be the reason for our recent increases

 

[dan11295]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This could be the reason for our recent increases

 

AFAIK the P1 variant is not a high percentage of cases anywhere in the U.S. Michigan is mostly B.1.1.7.  Canada (BC in particular) has had more P.1 cases. Very likely the P.1 variant is also responsible for the major surge in many South American countries.

[outflow]

A local hospital in Sandusky mi who doesn't have an icu had  to transfer covid patients to Toledo Ohio for care as the nearest place able to take them. Sandusky is about 90 miles north of Detroit so and about 60-70 miles from Saginaw/Flint so from them to have to go to Toledo to find open bed shows how bad the situation is up here right now

https://www.wnem.com/news/increase-in-covid-19-cases-making-it-hard-for-thumb-region-hospitals-to-provide-adequate/article_400aa316-9e2a-11eb-a5d1-83e481510428.html?fbclid=IwAR1uj9tKxyecXoU7pcxVF7B5t3Cr_MwbyBc48WBNnuleT8Ly1Yl59S_Kvfo