Coronavirus

[Powerball]

5 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

When was the data for this?

The data for what?

This was an article where the ex-FDA chief gave his opinion on vaccination trends going forward and the prospect for acheiving herd immunity, based on his knowledge and observations.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

50% of adults or 50% of the US population?

updated yesterday

USA update on first dose shots:

1,621,855 first dose shots. Last week 1,694,500

7 day rolling avg is now 1,988,807. 1,999,185 yesterday.

123.9m age 16+ have first dose - ~46.5% (122.2m - ~45.9% yesterday)

122.9m adults have first doses - 47.6% (121.3m - 47% yesterday)

79.6% of 65+ have first dose (79.2% yesterday)

At this rate, the first dose shots:

End of

April - 155.7m

May - 217.3m

16+ population numbers (based on 266.3m population)

End of

April - 58.5%

May - 81.6%

50% on 4/19

60% on 5/2

69.420% on 5/15

Total population numbers (based on 331.8m population)

End of

April - 46.9%

May - 65.5%

40% on 4/19

50% on 5/06

60% on 5/22

69.420% on 6/7

[Powerball]

Just now, TimB84 said:

50% of adults or 50% of the US population?

The article says only 37% of the *TOTAL* population has received one shot, which is what the CDC reports.

The CDC has also been clear that herd immunity is achieved once a percentage of the *TOTAL population fully vaccinated (although that percentage is still unknown), not just adults. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Vaccination Demographics update for 2021-04-14

% received at least one dose by age

Age	Apr-14	Apr-13	Apr-07	Daily Δ	Weekly Δ
75+	78.5%	78.2%	76.4%	0.29%	2.1%
65-74	79.6%	79.2%	76.6%	0.44%	3.0%
50-64	53.9%	53.2%	47.4%	0.71%	6.4%
40-49	40.8%	40.1%	34.7%	0.70%	6.1%
30-39	34.5%	33.9%	28.8%	0.63%	5.8%
18-29	25.0%	24.4%	19.6%	0.61%	5.4%
0-17	1.30%	1.23%	0.77%	0.07%	0.53%
16-17	11.4%	10.8%	6.8%	0.59%	4.6%
16+	46.8%	46.2%	41.6%	0.60%	5.2%
0+	37.7%	37.2%	33.5%	0.49%	4.2%

% fully vaccinated by age

Age	Apr-14	Apr-13	Apr-07	Daily Δ	Weekly Δ
75+	63.4%	63.0%	59.5%	0.34%	3.9%
65-74	61.6%	61.0%	55.7%	0.54%	5.8%
50-64	29.6%	28.8%	22.7%	0.78%	6.9%
40-49	21.8%	21.3%	17.4%	0.53%	4.5%
30-39	18.3%	17.9%	14.7%	0.42%	3.7%
18-29	11.9%	11.6%	9.1%	0.33%	2.8%
0-17	0.24%	0.23%	0.15%	0.01%	0.09%
16-17	2.1%	1.99%	1.33%	0.11%	0.78%
16+	29.0%	28.5%	24.4%	0.50%	4.6%
0+	23.3%	22.9%	19.6%	0.40%	3.7%

Notes:

• Data from CDC vaccination demographic trends page and exact totals for every age group can be downloaded as a CSV. The site provides a graph of this data over time. While the graph title says it is by "Date Administered", the data more closely represents doses by "Date Reported".

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

updated yesterday

USA update on first dose shots:

1,621,855 first dose shots. Last week 1,694,500

7 day rolling avg is now 1,988,807. 1,999,185 yesterday.

123.9m age 16+ have first dose - ~46.5% (122.2m - ~45.9% yesterday)

122.9m adults have first doses - 47.6% (121.3m - 47% yesterday)

79.6% of 65+ have first dose (79.2% yesterday)

At this rate, the first dose shots:

End of

April - 155.7m

May - 217.3m

16+ population numbers (based on 266.3m population)

End of

April - 58.5%

May - 81.6%

50% on 4/19

60% on 5/2

69.420% on 5/15

Total population numbers (based on 331.8m population)

End of

April - 46.9%

May - 65.5%

40% on 4/19

50% on 5/06

60% on 5/22

69.420% on 6/7

I’m distracted by the fact that 69.420% is one of the benchmarks here. But I think the point is that the rate will probably slow down as time goes on and more people who want the vaccine will have already gotten it.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

updated yesterday

USA update on first dose shots:

1,621,855 first dose shots. Last week 1,694,500

7 day rolling avg is now 1,988,807. 1,999,185 yesterday.

123.9m age 16+ have first dose - ~46.5% (122.2m - ~45.9% yesterday)

122.9m adults have first doses - 47.6% (121.3m - 47% yesterday)

79.6% of 65+ have first dose (79.2% yesterday)

At this rate, the first dose shots:

End of

April - 155.7m

May - 217.3m

16+ population numbers (based on 266.3m population)

End of

April - 58.5%

May - 81.6%

50% on 4/19

60% on 5/2

69.420% on 5/15

Total population numbers (based on 331.8m population)

End of

April - 46.9%

May - 65.5%

40% on 4/19

50% on 5/06

60% on 5/22

69.420% on 6/7

You had to go and post the 81% in May again?  I'm gonna hope for the best that it won't lead to a repeat of what happened last time.  

[Powerball]

The CEO of Pfizer is now suggesting a third dose of their vaccine would be required within 12 months.

Not only that, but a booster shot would possibly be required annually.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

[Chicago Storm]

The CEO of Pfizer is now suggesting a third dose of their vaccine would be required within 12 months.
Not only that, but a booster shot would possibly be required annually.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

good luck with that.


.

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’m distracted by the fact that 69.420% is one of the benchmarks here. But I think the point is that the rate will probably slow down as time goes on and more people who want the vaccine will have already gotten it.

50% will have first dose by end of this week. 60-70% is vaccine threshold. I'd say about 3/10 are not getting it. With prior infections, that is herd immunity, unless variants cause this thing to last indefinitely....In which case things will never be normal again.

Moderna applying for full FDA approval. 

https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-veterans-connecticut-coronavirus/10513978/

[BuffaloWeather]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You had to go and post the 81% in May again?  I'm gonna hope for the best that it won't lead to a repeat of what happened last time.  

I doubt that happens now, that forecast is based on current vaccination rates. Not to mention J&J being taken off the shelf will greatly reduce that percentage. 

[Hoosier]

I wonder how much immunity is left in the original trial participants.  Some of them would've been vaccinated a year or so ago. 

What is the criteria going to be for deciding when a booster is needed?  What level of efficacy is no longer considered acceptable?  Also will be interesting to see how long this vaccine is free for all Americans.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder how much immunity is left in the original trial participants.  Some of them would've been vaccinated a year or so ago. 

What is the criteria going to be for deciding when a booster is needed?  What level of efficacy is no longer considered acceptable?  Also will be interesting to see how long this vaccine is free for all Americans.

We know natural immunity last around 10 months. The general duration is 8-12 months I believe. I expect the vaccines to be similar. I would hope in a year from now covid is an endemic and no longer controlling the world. 

https://www.prevention.com/health/a34864421/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-covid-19-antibodies/

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder how much immunity is left in the original trial participants.  Some of them would've been vaccinated a year or so ago. 

What is the criteria going to be for deciding when a booster is needed?  What level of efficacy is no longer considered acceptable?  Also will be interesting to see how long this vaccine is free for all Americans.

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

[Powerball]

I'd be interested to see if the individuals who are so gung ho about getting everyone vaccinated so quickly after crying about the lockdowns and mask mandates for the past 1+ year show that same energy if booster shots or additional doses are required several months/years from now. 

I tend to think the individuals in question are just using this as a ruse to force a return back to their own normal lives ASAP, and not legitimate ongoing concern about the health of others around them. But that's just my opinion and the cynic in me.

[schoeppeya]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

Business is boomin. And answer is probably whenever the US government stops paying for it.

[schoeppeya]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

I'd be interested to see if the individuals who are so gung ho about giving everyone vaccinated so quickly after crying about the lockdowns and mask mandates for the past 1+ year show that same energy if booster shots or additional doses are required several months/years from now. 

I tend to think the individuals in question are just using this as a rouse to force a return back to their own normal lives ASAP, and not legitimate ongoing concern about the health of others around them. But that's just my opinion

Why do you act like its a bad thing for people to be in a hurry to get their lives back to normal? The flip side of that is why are you so intent on NOT getting everyone's lives back to normal as quickly as possible? I am going to go out on a limb and say your response includes something along the lines of "I actually care about other people an nobody else does".

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Business is boomin. And answer is probably whenever the US government stops paying for it.

Exactly. Pfizer didn’t do all this work only to produce a vaccine that didn’t require a booster that could allow them to make a killing off of American citizens and our artificially high drug prices.

[Powerball]

16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Interesting that this information is coming from the Pfizer CEO in this respect.

 

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Exactly. Pfizer didn’t do all this work only to produce a vaccine that didn’t require a booster that could allow them to make a killing off of American citizens and our artificially high drug prices.

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

It is recommended now that we take the Flu shot every year.

If in fact we never achieve herd immunity, a booster requirement could easily be a possibly.

Not everything is a big business conspiracy.

The flu vaccine is generally less effective than the covid vaccines though.

Let's see some data on how much the protection wanes from the covid vaccine instead of only hearing from a CEO.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

Exactly, we have no idea where we will be in the spring of 2022. 

[Powerball]

11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree with this, but let’s remember that Pfizer is a business and isn’t necessarily just producing this vaccine out of the goodness of their hearts. I would argue that it’s fairly likely that a booster is required, but from an optics perspective that information should be provided to the general public by an actual medical expert (in human medicine), not the CEO of one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world (who happens to be a DVM).

Sure, that's why I emphasized his comment was a suggestion.

That said, the medical community hasn't ruled out the possibility either and I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

[Powerball]

55 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The CEO of Pfizer is now suggesting a third dose of their vaccine would be required within 12 months.

Not only that, but a booster shot would possibly be required annually.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

Should note, the same article reports David Kessler (Biden's Chief Science Officer) also said that Americans should expect to receive booster shots to protect against variants, although he did acknowledge (as we all know) there's still a lot we're learning about the virus and didn't go into further detail.

[BuffaloWeather]

CDC finds less than 1 percent of fully vaccinated people got COVID-19

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/548440-cdc-5800-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-documented-among-millions-who-are?fbclid=IwAR21_N3d8TElv223lvgeTrCWX1ZMr2MHp3wbe6_mxYj_AtyXyIh7g5ni6_s

1 percent of the people who contracted breakthrough infections died.

So, if you get the vaccine, that is a .00008% chance of dying from the virus if you get the vaccine. 12500 to 1

Vaccinate everyone in the country, the most number of deaths that would occur would be 26400 (assuming a population of 330 million and everyone receives still gets the virus, which is impossible but never mind)

In others words, significantly less than die in a typical flu season.

[TimB]

Just now, Powerball said:

Should also note, the same article also reports David Kessler (Biden's Chief Medical Officer) also aid that Americans should expect to receive booster shots to protect against variants, although he did acknowledge (as we all know) there's still a lot we're learning about the virus and didn't go into further detail.

Ah, the optics don’t look quite as bad now that I see the updated article. I think Kessler is a more palatable source than a corporate bigwig is.

[mattb65]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

The data for what?

This was an article where the ex-FDA chief gave his opinion on vaccination trends going forward and the prospect for acheiving herd immunity, based on his knowledge and observations.

Nearly 50% of all eligible adults have already initiated their vaccination.  Many colleges are requiring vaccinations to attend which will cover a large portion of the 18-22 group.

I understand the concern over vaccine hesitancy but the data we already have on how many people have been vaccinated and continue to be vaccinated - 3.3 million shots per day and still climbing - is really encouraging.

I think saying half of all Americans may not get it which includes all those under 16 that aren't eligible is the wrong measure to evaluate.  It should be how many of the 16+ or 18+ are getting the vaccine.  So far those numbers still look great. 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Ah, the optics don’t look quite as bad now that I see the updated article. I think Kessler is a more palatable source than a corporate bigwig is.

Like I said, I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

To inmediately suspect a conspiracy comes across as paranoid and irrational (intentionally or not).

[schoeppeya]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

CDC finds less than 1 percent of fully vaccinated people got COVID-19

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/548440-cdc-5800-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-documented-among-millions-who-are?fbclid=IwAR21_N3d8TElv223lvgeTrCWX1ZMr2MHp3wbe6_mxYj_AtyXyIh7g5ni6_s

1 percent of the people who contracted breakthrough infections died.

So, if you get the vaccine, that is a .00008% chance of dying from the virus if you get the vaccine. 12500 to 1

Vaccinate everyone in the country, the most number of deaths that would occur would be 26400 (assuming a population of 330 million and everyone receives still gets the virus, which is impossible but never mind)

In others words, significantly less than die in a typical flu season.

Better throw the 2/335,000,000 people in there who would die from the vaccine just to make sure all your bases are covered in here 

[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

I think saying half of all Americans may not get it which includes all those under 16 that aren't eligible is the wrong measure to evaluate. 

I'll stick to the measure scientists at the CDC and FDA are using to evaluate when herd immunity is achieved.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Like I said, I'm quite certain the CEO of the 2nd largest pharmaceutical company in the world has frequent enough communications wth our top medical experts (that the general public is not always privy to) to not just be shooting from their hip when making these comments.

To inmediately suspect a conspiracy comes across as paranoid and irrational (intentionally or not).

I don’t immediately suspect a conspiracy. But a lot of people will. You’ve seen from this thread itself how many people throw rationality to the wind when it comes to this vaccine. I’m not saying he isn’t knowledgeable or privy to the issues at hand, but in my opinion he shouldn’t be the communicator of them.