Coronavirus

[StormfanaticInd]

My prediction for the United States is we will get this under control by the summer but variants will most likely set us back some this fall and winter. Its conceivable this could repeat itself over the next couple of years but hopefully getting weaker over time

[schoeppeya]

16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

My prediction for the United States is we will get this under control by the summer but variants will most likely set us back some this fall and winter. Its conceivable this could repeat itself over the next couple of years but hopefully getting weaker over time

Hopefully most of us will be vaccinated in the next few months 

[dan11295]

27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

India seems to be spiking also with 126k cases today.

Almost half of those cases are from one state (Maharastra, where Mumbai is, w/110M pop. which spiked first) but now numbers are spiking all over the country. Many other countries are seeing major spikes as well. Not sure what the primary driver is for it (variants/less mitigation/seasonality, etc.).

[Hoosier]

32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

My prediction for the United States is we will get this under control by the summer but variants will most likely set us back some this fall and winter. Its conceivable this could repeat itself over the next couple of years but hopefully getting weaker over time

As far as the summer, I think it can be a semi-normal one if we play our cards right.  Will it be exactly like 2019 in every way?  No, but the situation will be better than we've seen.  

By fall, we will be dealing with the competing influences of a very large percentage of vaccinations and seasonality wanting to take us back up.  I would almost bank on an increase in cases as we get to fall/winter because it will be hard to entirely defeat the seasonality component, but it all comes down to how much.  Kids may become an increasing driver of spread since they will be the least vaccinated... of course the protocols in schools will play a role in that... will masking still be required in school, etc?  I'm not sure if vaccinations will have started in the 12-15 year old age group in time for the fall 2021 school year, but they almost certainly won't have started for children under 12.

[OSUmetstud]

I believe there is subtle divergence in the weekly death metrics and the case metrics as the oldest population gets more vaccinated. For much of the pandemic from the summer through the winter, the 21-day lagged Case Fatality Rate was somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0%. Latest data suggests a bit less than that, maybe like 1.4% or so. 

[StormfanaticInd]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As far as the summer, I think it can be a semi-normal one if we play our cards right.  Will it be exactly like 2019 in every way?  No, but the situation will be better than we've seen.  

By fall, we will be dealing with the competing influences of a very large percentage of vaccinations and seasonality wanting to take us back up.  I would almost bank on an increase in cases as we get to fall/winter because it will be hard to entirely defeat the seasonality component, but it all comes down to how much.  Kids may become an increasing driver of spread since they will be the least vaccinated... of course the protocols in schools will play a role in that... will masking still be required in school, etc?  I'm not sure if vaccinations will have started in the 12-15 year old age group in time for the fall 2021 school year, but they almost certainly won't have started for children under 12.

Hopefully we can get all the kids back in school this fall. Vaccinations will be key

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Hospitalizations are now almost up to 40k at 39,474. Up 691 from yesterday

[madwx]

I'm now fully vaccinated and I believe it's the right thing to do.   These vaccinations are very successful, do not provide serious side effects(for example I had a worse reaction to the flu vaccine in 2019 than I had to my second dose of the covid vaccine), and they bring us to a place where we don't need distancing and masks.   

If anyone is having doubts or concerns about the vaccine please feel free to reach out to me, I can help answer some of the concerns or doubts you have and hopefully show you that it is the right thing to do.   

I don't believe vaccines should be mandatory, I believe a vaccination campaign is much more effective if people arrive at the decision on their own.  I do believe that a country may require a vaccine for international travelers, like countries currently do with yellow fever etc.

I'm looking forward to spending time with friends and with my father who is immunocompromised without the anxiety of spreading this to him.   Life will get back to normal and it will be sooner rather than later.   We can overcome this and the world will be a better place because of it.   

[StormfanaticInd]

I will be getting mines next week!

[schoeppeya]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I will be getting mines next week!

Are you going to the speedway?

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitalizations are now almost up to 40k at 39,474. Up 691 from yesterday

We are going to have to get that number down in the next few weeks or else run the risk of deaths plateauing for a while.  Deaths are still on an overall decreasing trend, but we have spent quite a bit of time now with hospitalizations around or over 35k.

[nwohweather]

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

[dan11295]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

[StormfanaticInd]

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

32 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

47 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

This really puts it in perspective how bad Michigan is doing. Really mysterious how Michigan is surging like this.  Were there any big events in the last month?

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

But standardized tests and all that nonsense... how could we possibly cancel those?! /s

[CorePunch]

49 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

Notable outbreaks in corrections facilities amd the state has mandated that all youth sports participants get bi weekly tests. Thats producing a lot of found cases. I suspect these numbers trend down in the next couple of weeks. One thing is for sure, this surge has really jumpstarted the vaccine push by people. Everyone wants the smoothie ASAP. 

[BuffaloWeather]

This isn't good

Colorado vaccination site closes early after reactions to Johnson & Johnson vaccine

https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/colorado-vaccination-adverse-reactions-johnson-johnson

[RCNYILWX]

The P1 variant in Brazil is clearly worrisome, however I think it's a bigger deal for the rest of the world than here. There very likely is a worst case scenario of overcrowding and subsequent care degradation in Brazil resulting in the mortality spike among younger adults. It does appear the variant is more contagious and likely is more deadly due to higher viral load, but there's no way to test how those patients would do with high quality care.

Because of our rapidly expanding vaccination campaign, we should stay out ahead of widespread major issues like during the late fall and winter spike, current spike in Michigan notwithstanding. This consequently will keep hospital occupancy at manageable levels. I do worry though that things could get worse in other countries, including the EU, given their lagging vaccine campaigns. With supply set to no longer be a serious issue in the US, we will have to pivot some of our efforts to helping the global vax campaign.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[OSUmetstud]

An interesting discussion with respect to history and legalities of vaccine passports in the US. 

https://time.com/5952532/vaccine-passport-history/

[KokomoWX]

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

I just don't get why everyone wants to target the low hanging fruit of schools and in person learning.  I work at a school, with 1850 students K-12 plus staff who have been in school since early August.  We have closed twice for a couple of days each when we lost a small but critical departments (food service/custodial) to quarantines.  We played sports, had plays and band concerts and exhibitions, and a variety of activities.  Our Covid positives stand at 131 for the entire year for students and staff.  We have had no outbreaks and our positivity rate was always much less than local and state rates.  Schools can safely open and should be open.  Period.  We did allow for students to chose in remain home and do distance learning but the number was small to start and dwindled quickly.  We have zero plans to offer this as an option next school year.  

[TimB]

On the flip side of that coin, a quick Google search turns up the fact that as of January there were 530 US teachers who died as a result of covid (that we know of, so the number is likely higher). And the fact is, given that teachers are usually able to retire before the age of 60, very few of them are in the vulnerable age group. So there’s a delicate balance between death and how much we’re willing to let students “fall behind” their peers in other states and countries that are mostly doing the same thing.

[schoeppeya]

13 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I just don't get why everyone wants to target the low hanging fruit of schools and in person learning.  I work at a school, with 1850 students K-12 plus staff who have been in school since early August.  We have closed twice for a couple of days each when we lost a small but critical departments (food service/custodial) to quarantines.  We played sports, had plays and band concerts and exhibitions, and a variety of activities.  Our Covid positives stand at 131 for the entire year for students and staff.  We have had no outbreaks and our positivity rate was always much less than local and state rates.  Schools can safely open and should be open.  Period.  We did allow for students to chose in remain home and do distance learning but the number was small to start and dwindled quickly.  We have zero plans to offer this as an option next school year.  

People keep pushing that narrative despite repeated studies that kids, in general, don't contribute a lot to the spread (unless something new has come out in the last month or two). I am not sure why people want kids to stay home so badly, it is terrible for them and makes people's lives very difficult. 

[RyanDe680]

this is a story of one of my friend's cousin.  He's in his 30s, a physician and otherwise healthy

 

https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/expertise-and-kindness-defy-odds-in-long-precarious-fight-against-covid-19-/2021/04?fbclid=IwAR06yQ7DXdm05nl7z21tHYBYZvP5w-BIo2zQm9WRtmv5wNOl4zPKzQ1VGhE

 

I still don't get why people mess with facts on how bad this can be and NOT want to take safety precautions.

[dan11295]

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

[nwohweather]

8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

Couldn't agree more. We're talking about an education here, that's one of the most important things for a young person. In addition, not many have the luxury of working from home daily so what are they to do with childcare? It's a damn tough spot all around the longer this drags on

[StormfanaticInd]

59 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Couldn't agree more. We're talking about an education here, that's one of the most important things for a young person. In addition, not many have the luxury of working from home daily so what are they to do with childcare? It's a damn tough spot all around the longer this drags on

The quicker everyone gets their vaccines the quicker we can be done with this. It really is just that simple folks

[CorePunch]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

This - 100% especially K-5. 

[Santa Clause]

Vaccines=normalcy.